Russia’s cryptocurrency market is experiencing a surge in transactional activity, with daily trading volumes reaching an estimated 50 billion rubles, roughly $640 million, according to Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov.

Booming crypto trade meets regulatory push

Speaking at the Alfa Talk forum on digital assets, Chebeskov said this “turnover of more than 10 trillion rubles annually” highlights the depth of crypto involvement among Russians, much of it occurring outside formal regulatory oversight.

“We’ve always said that millions of citizens are involved in this activity, representing trillions of rubles in terms of use and savings. One example is the daily cryptocurrency turnover in our country—around 50 billion rubles. That’s a turnover of more than 10 trillion rubles per year, which is currently occurring outside the regulated zone, outside our control,” the deputy minister explained.

Officials note that millions of citizens are participating in crypto trading, investing and savings, but most of these transactions currently take place through unregulated channels, leaving them beyond the attention of authorities.

Against this backdrop, Russian regulators are pushing to bring much of the crypto market under formal scrutiny. Lawmakers plan to present a comprehensive crypto regulation bill to the State Duma by June 2026, with the aim of adopting a legal framework that would take effect by July 1, 2027.

Under the draft legislation, all cryptocurrency exchanges would need licenses, and operating without approval could be penalized similarly to illegal banking. Retail investors would face annual limits on crypto purchases — proposed at about 300,000 rubles (≈ $4,000) — and qualification tests before they can trade.

Privacy-oriented cryptocurrencies could be restricted, and the central bank would have discretion over which assets are approved for legal trading beginning in mid-2027.

Major Russian exchanges, including the Moscow and St. Petersburg exchanges, have been preparing to launch regulated crypto trading platforms once the legal foundation is finalized. These efforts reflect broader policy shifts aimed at moving users away from “gray market” activity toward licensed, transparent venues.

The proposed rules also keep the long-standing ban on using crypto for domestic payments but open regulated trading as an investment vehicle. The combined push from the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Russia, and the State Duma signals a strategic effort to balance market growth, investor protection and financial stability while reining in unregulated activity.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says retail users kept buying Bitcoin and Ethereum on price dips, with most Coinbase client balances in February at or above December levels.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong reported that retail investors increased cryptocurrency purchases during recent market declines, according to internal company data.

Armstrong stated in a post on social media platform X that individual investors on Coinbase demonstrated buying activity during price drops for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The executive cited internal trading data showing increased retail trading volume correlating with price declines.

“According to our data, individual users on Coinbase have been quite resilient in these market conditions: they took advantage of the dips to buy,” Armstrong stated. “We saw increases for retail users across Bitcoin and Ethereum.”

The Coinbase chief executive noted that retail investors exhibited holding behavior during short-term price volatility. Armstrong reported that most client cryptocurrency balances in February remained at or above December levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoin markets experienced sharp declines in recent weeks, with recovery attempts ongoing, according to market data.

Market analysts noted the contrast between retail buying activity and slower institutional fund inflows during the period. The divergence represents a significant factor in short-term supply and demand dynamics, according to industry observers.

Analysts stated that additional market catalysts would be needed for increased retail demand to shift broader market trends, given current macroeconomic conditions and derivatives market structure.

Coinbase operates as a cryptocurrency exchange platform serving retail and institutional clients.

Crypto and stock markets face a packed macro week, with CPI, PCE, Fed minutes and spending data set to test rate‑cut bets after mixed inflation and rising tensions.

Financial markets are preparing for several key economic data releases this week that could influence cryptocurrency and stock prices, following mixed signals from last week’s inflation data.

January’s Consumer Price Index came in slightly below expectations, with headline inflation at 2.38% year-on-year and core CPI at 2.5%, marking the lowest level since early 2021, according to government data. The figures initially boosted stock and cryptocurrency markets on Friday, though cryptocurrency gains retreated over the weekend.

Traditional U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the President’s Day holiday. The ADP employment update is scheduled for Tuesday, followed by the January Retail Sales report. Wednesday will bring consumer spending data with the delayed December Durable Goods Orders numbers, along with Federal Reserve meeting minutes and 10 central bank speaker events.

The December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, considered a key indicator by the Federal Reserve, is expected to be released later this week. Goldman Sachs raised its PCE outlook following the January CPI data, estimating that the core PCE price index rose 0.40% in January, according to reports. The economists attributed the projection to rising consumer electronics and IT prices, which carry heavier weighting in PCE calculations than in CPI. A global shortage of RAM and storage components, driven by AI data center demand, has contributed to increased computer and component prices.

The CME Fed Watch Tool shows a 90% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged at the Federal Reserve‘s March meeting, according to current market pricing.

Cryptocurrency markets have declined in the past 24 hours, with total market capitalization falling. Bitcoin retreated from recent highs during early Asian trading on Monday and has remained rangebound for the past ten days. Ethereum prices have fallen sharply, while alternative cryptocurrencies have continued to decline.

The Kobeissi Letter noted that geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty remain elevated, cautioning that volatility could continue this week.

Crypto funds recorded a fourth consecutive week of outflows, with $173 million withdrawn, according to CoinShares’ latest weekly fund flows report.

The latest decline brings total outflows over the past four weeks to $3.74 billion, underscoring persistent investor caution amid price weakness and macro uncertainty.

The week began on a stronger footing, with $575 million in inflows, but sentiment quickly reversed. Midweek outflows reached $853 million, likely driven by further downside in crypto prices. Conditions improved slightly on Friday after weaker-than-expected US CPI data, which helped trigger $105 million in inflows.

Trading activity also cooled. Exchange-traded product (ETP) volumes fell sharply to $27 billion, down from a record $63 billion the previous week.

US leads crypto fund outflows as Europe and Canada diverge

Regional data revealed a stark divergence in sentiment. The United States accounted for $403 million in outflows, while other regions collectively posted $230 million in inflows.

Germany led with $115 million in inflows, followed by Canada ($46.3 million) and Switzerland ($36.8 million). The data suggests that while US investors remain risk-off, appetite for digital assets persists in parts of Europe and North America.

Bitcoin and Ethereum under pressure, altcoins show resilience

Bitcoin (BTC) bore the brunt of the sell-off, with $133 million in outflows last week. Ethereum (ETH) followed with $85.1 million in withdrawals.

Interestingly, short Bitcoin products also saw outflows totaling $15.4 million over the past two weeks, a pattern CoinShares notes is often observed near potential market bottoms.

In contrast, select altcoins continued to attract capital. The Ripple token (XRP) led with $33.4 million in inflows, followed closely by Solana (SOL) and Chainlink (LINK). The selective resilience suggests investors are rotating exposure rather than exiting the asset class entirely.

Despite the recent drawdown, total assets under management remain substantial, highlighting that institutional engagement in digital assets continues even amid short-term volatility.

Bitcoin faces quantum computing scrutiny and heavy leveraged short positioning, with SOPR stabilization, ETF inflows and CME gap levels shaping whether a 10% move triggers a cascade of liquidations.

Bitcoin’s potential vulnerability to quantum computing threats has drawn attention from institutional investors, while derivatives markets show concentrated short positions vulnerable to liquidation on a 10% price rally, according to market data and industry observers.

Venture capitalist Nic Carter stated that large institutional holders could pressure Bitcoin developers if potential quantum computing threats are not addressed, according to reports from Coin Bureau. The comments come as institutional exposure to Bitcoin has expanded through spot exchange-traded funds and custodial products.

Liquidation data analyzed over the weekend indicated that a significant volume of short positions would face unwinding on a 10% upside move, while substantial long positions remained exposed to liquidation on an equivalent decline, according to trader Ted Pillows, who shared the analysis on social media platform X.

Pillows’ figures showed that leveraged short positions outweighed vulnerable long positions, creating conditions where an upward price movement could trigger rapid buybacks. The analysis identified specific trigger levels that could open a path toward higher price zones, while noting a nearby area tied to a Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures gap.

CoinGlass liquidation maps reflected elevated leverage across derivatives venues, with open interest clustering around round-number strikes. The positioning followed weekend momentum periods, when reduced liquidity often amplifies price movements.

On-chain analyst miracleyoon observed that the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio moved below the 0.95 capitulation zone before recovering toward 1.0. The metric measures whether short-term holders sell at a profit or loss and often signals shifts in local trend behavior, according to the analyst.

The analyst stated that sustained positioning above 1.0 would imply absorbed selling pressure and could extend a technical rebound, while failure to hold that threshold would reopen range-bound conditions. The recent drawdown lacked the intensity seen on August 5, 2024, when the ratio fell toward 0.9, according to the analysis.

CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha compared retail flows on cryptocurrency exchange Binance with institutional exchange-traded fund activity. On February 6, retail-driven sell pressure exceeded 28,000 Bitcoin, coinciding with a price drop, according to Taha’s data. A second wave on February 13 surpassed 12,000 Bitcoin, even as prices attempted stabilization.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted their first positive net flow day since January on February 6, according to the same analysis. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust led with notable inflows, followed by Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, suggesting institutions accumulated holdings during periods of retail selling.

Carter framed the quantum computing issue as governance pressure rather than an immediate technical flaw, arguing that capital concentration alters power dynamics within open-source systems, according to Coin Bureau’s report. The discussions have resurfaced as more corporate treasuries and asset managers have allocated capital through regulated investment vehicles.

Analyst Teddy Bitcoins stated that the current market structure mirrored the 2022 price decline, projecting a potential substantial decline in 2026 based on chart symmetry. The thesis relied on cyclical behavior patterns rather than immediate catalysts, according to the analyst’s commentary.

The quantum risk discussion intersects with leverage imbalances and on-chain stabilization signals, reflecting different time horizons from short-term liquidations to multi-year structural considerations. Markets have absorbed these factors simultaneously, adjusting exposure across spot and derivatives venues.

Traders are monitoring whether Bitcoin prices can sustain momentum above key trigger levels to force short covering, while failure to defend nearby support levels could revive gap-fill scenarios. Developers face renewed debate over cryptographic upgrade paths as institutional ownership increases, though immediate price movements appear more likely to emerge from leveraged positioning dynamics.

SBI Holdings has pushed back against claims circulating on social media that it holds $10 billion worth of XRP, clarifying that the figure is inaccurate and misrepresents the company’s actual exposure to Ripple.

SBI Holdings denies $10B XRP claims

The confusion appears to have stemmed from a widely shared post stating that SBI, a long-time partner of Ripple, was a “holder of $10 billion in XRP” while expanding its footprint in Asia through the acquisition of Singapore-based crypto platform Coinhako.

However, SBI Holdings Chairman and CEO Yoshitaka Kitao publicly corrected the claim. In a reply on X, Kitao stated: “Not $10 bil. in XRP, but around 9% of Ripple Lab. So our hidden asset could be much bigger.”

The clarification makes a key distinction: SBI does not directly hold $10 billion worth of XRP tokens. Instead, the Japanese financial services giant owns approximately 9% of Ripple Labs, the U.S.-based blockchain payments company closely associated with XRP.

SBI has been one of Ripple’s most prominent strategic partners in Asia for years, backing joint ventures and promoting the use of Ripple’s cross-border payment solutions across the region. Its equity stake in Ripple Labs represents a corporate investment, not a treasury holding of XRP tokens.

Kitao’s reference to a “hidden asset” suggests that SBI views its Ripple equity stake as potentially undervalued, particularly if Ripple’s valuation strengthens following regulatory clarity and continued expansion.

The incident shows how quickly misinformation can spread in crypto markets, especially when equity investments and token holdings are conflated. The takeaway is clear: SBI’s exposure to Ripple is significant, but it is tied to ownership in the company itself, not a multibillion-dollar XRP stockpile.

Dogecoin price may still hold the clues to whether meme coin season returns. Between February 6 and February 15, Dogecoin rallied about 47%. During the same period, the total meme coin market cap climbed by around 43%. This shows Dogecoin is still moving in step with the broader sector and continues to lead it.

Now, two of the most closely aligned meme coins, BONK and Shiba Inu, are already forming breakout patterns. Their next move may depend on whether Dogecoin confirms its own bullish structure. Together, correlation, holder behavior, and price structure suggest Dogecoin still remains the key signal for the meme coin cycle.

BONK and Shiba Inu Are Already Showing Breakout Structures

BONK and Shiba Inu currently have an extremely high correlation with Dogecoin. Correlation measures how closely assets move together.

A correlation of 1 means they move almost identically. Over the past month, BONK and Dogecoin reached a correlation as high as 0.99. Shiba Inu reached about 0.97 to 0.99 on weekly and monthly timeframes.

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This makes their price structures important early signals.

BONK is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 12-hour chart. This pattern forms when sellers lose strength and buyers gradually take control. The breakout level sits near $0.0000075. If BONK breaks above this level, the pattern projects a move toward $0.000010, which would be about a 43% rally from the neckline.

The pattern weakens with a drop under $0.0000063 and invalidates under $0.0000051.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) is forming a bullish flag pattern. A bullish flag happens when the price pauses briefly after a rally before continuing higher. The breakout level sits near $0.0000069. If Shiba Inu breaks above this level, it could rise toward $0.0000099, representing a 43% gain.

A dip under $0.0000057 can come close to invalidating the SHIB breakout theory. However, these breakouts may still depend on Dogecoin confirming its own direction.

Meme Coin Market Cap Still Follows Dogecoin’s Lead

The broader meme coin market continues to mirror Dogecoin’s movement.

Between February 6 and February 15, the meme coin market cap increased roughly 43%. Dogecoin price increased slightly more, climbing 47% during the same period.

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Even after the recent pullback, the meme coin market cap has fallen only about 12.5%, holding most of its gains. This shows the overall cycle has weakened but not collapsed.

Dogecoin still dominates the meme coin sector with a market cap of nearly $17 billion, representing over 50% of the entire meme coin market, at press time. Because of this dominance, Dogecoin often determines whether meme coin rallies expand or fade.

This makes Dogecoin’s own structure the most important signal.

Holders and Whales Are Quietly Positioning Again

On-chain data shows stronger holders are increasing control while short-term traders exit.

One key metric is Spent Coins Age Band. This measures how many coins of different holding ages are being spent. When these coins move, it often means that holder cohorts are selling. When the metric falls, it shows holders are staying inactive and holding.

This metric dropped sharply from 461 million coins to 168 million coins, a decline of about 64%. Similar drops previously appeared near local bottoms.

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For example:

• On February 10, the metric reached a local low. Dogecoin price then rose about 22% within four days.
• On January 26, another local low appeared. Dogecoin price rose about 6% within two days.

Another indicator called HODL Waves shows how long investors hold their coins. Short-term holders, holding coins for one to three months, reduced their share from 10.41% to 5.70%, a drop of about 45%. This shows speculative traders exited.

Meanwhile, stronger holders increased exposure. Coins held for six to twelve months increased from 10.48% to 11.22%, a 7% increase. This shows growing conviction.

Whales also accumulated. Wallets holding over one billion DOGE (the biggest whales) increased holdings from 70.56 billion to 70.84 billion coins, adding roughly 280 million coins.

This shift shows stronger hands replacing weaker ones.

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Dogecoin Price Pattern Now Holds the Key Meme Coin Season Signal

Despite the recent 13% pullback, Dogecoin’s price structure remains bullish. On the 12-hour chart, Dogecoin is forming a cup and handle pattern. This pattern often appears before continuation rallies.

The cup formed between late January and early February. The current pullback forms the handle. Importantly, the handle support near $0.103 remains intact, showing buyers are still active. The key breakout level now sits near $0.117, which is also a down-sloping neckline resistance.

If Dogecoin breaks above $0.117, the pattern projects a move toward $0.180, representing roughly a 50% rally, per pattern projection. Supporting this, the Smart Money Index, which tracks experienced investor activity, remains above its signal line. This suggests larger investors have not exited.

However, risks remain. If Dogecoin falls below $0.098, the pattern would weaken. A drop below $0.091 would invalidate the bullish structure.

For now, Dogecoin price continues to hold the strongest clues for meme coin season. BONK and Shiba Inu are already preparing breakout structures.

But whether those breakouts fully develop may depend on Dogecoin confirming its own move first.

The Epstein files show he discussed meeting Gary Gensler to talk about digital currencies, offering fresh insight into the financier’s efforts to engage with early crypto leaders and policy figures.

Emails from May 2018 show Epstein telling former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers that “Gary Gensler [is] coming earlier… wants to talk digital currencies.” Summers replied that he knew Gensler from government service and described him as “pretty smart.” 

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The exchange suggests Epstein expected Gensler to participate in discussions involving cryptocurrency.

Epstein Files Reveal More Crypto Stories

Separately, internal messages show Epstein referencing crypto-related meetings connected to MIT Media Lab leadership. 

One message asked whether others “would be interested in Gary Gensler,” indicating Gensler’s involvement in crypto-focused academic or policy circles at the time. 

In another message, Epstein wrote that he would be “with Gary Gensler on crypto tomorrow,” although the files do not independently confirm whether a direct meeting took place.

At the time, Gensler was a professor at MIT, where he taught blockchain and digital currencies. 

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He later became the SEC from 2021 to 2025, where he oversaw the most aggressive regulatory crackdown on crypto in US history.

The Gensler references appear alongside broader evidence of Epstein’s deep involvement in early cryptocurrency development and investment. 

DOJ documents show Epstein donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to MIT’s Media Lab. This included funding the Digital Currency Initiative, which supported Bitcoin Core developers after the Bitcoin Foundation collapsed. 

Developers funded through the initiative included key maintainers of Bitcoin’s open-source protocol.

In addition, financial records confirm Epstein invested $3 million in crypto exchange Coinbase in 2014. 

He also invested in Bitcoin infrastructure firm Blockstream and corresponded with early Bitcoin developers, researchers, and venture capitalists.

Furthermore, emails show Epstein proposing a Sharia-compliant digital currency modeled on Bitcoin in 2016. 

However, the files do not show any financial relationship between Epstein and Gensler. Nor do they confirm whether the two men met directly or collaborated on any crypto-related project.

Still, the documents highlight Epstein’s sustained efforts to engage with influential figures in crypto, academia, and financial policy. 

XRP price has formed a potential failed auction at $1.58, signaling demand at range lows and increasing the probability of a recovery move toward $2.00 upside.

XRP (XRP) price action has begun to stabilize after a sharp corrective move, with recent trading behavior offering important insight into market positioning. One of the most notable technical developments is the formation of a potential failed auction at the range low support near $1.58.

This is a key concept in auction market theory, often highlighting when sellers have lost momentum, and buyers begin to assert control.

As long as price action continues to hold above the $1.58 range low, the probability increases that XRP could rotate higher toward the next major area of interest, which is the value area low around the $2.00 level. From a structural standpoint, this would represent a mean reversion move within the broader range rather than an impulsive breakout.

XRP price key technical points

• Failed auction at $1.58 range low: Sellers failed to gain acceptance below support, signalling underlying demand.
• Range structure remains intact: Holding above $1.58 prevents a breakdown and preserves rotational conditions.
• $2.00 value area low as upside target: A logical magnet for price if demand continues to defend current support.

From a technical perspective, the behavior around $1.58 aligns closely with the definition of a failed auction. Price briefly explored lower levels, but the lack of follow-through indicated insufficient selling interest. Instead of continuation, XRP quickly rotated back above the range low, trapping late sellers and reinforcing the idea that buyers were active in this zone.

This type of price action often reflects participation from stronger hands, where larger market participants step in to absorb liquidity as price moves into discounted territory. Failed auctions are particularly relevant when they occur at established range boundaries, as they often lead to rotations back toward areas of prior value.

In XRP’s case, the range low at $1.58 has acted as a clear inflection point. Each attempt to trade below it has been met with responsive buying, suggesting that this level is being defended. As long as this behavior persists, downside continuation becomes less likely in the short term.

Market structure supports a relief rally scenario

Looking at the broader market structure, XRP remains within a defined range rather than trending. While the larger timeframe trend has experienced downside pressure, the failure to break and hold below $1.58 keeps the structure intact. This supports the case for rotational price action rather than immediate trend continuation to the downside.

From a price action perspective, holding above range lows after a failed auction often leads to a relief rally toward the midpoint or value area of the range. In this scenario, the value area low near $2.00 becomes a natural upside target, as markets tend to revisit areas where prior trading activity was high.

It is important to note that this does not automatically imply a full trend reversal. Instead, it suggests that XRP may be entering a corrective phase within the broader structure, allowing price to rebalance before the next directional move develops.

Volume and acceptance remain key going forward

While the failed auction provides a constructive technical signal, confirmation will come from continued acceptance above $1.58. Sustained trading above this level, accompanied by improving volume, would further validate the bullish case for a rotation higher.

If XRP were to fall below $1.58 and begin trading at a price below it, the failed auction thesis would weaken significantly. In that scenario, the market would be signalling that sellers have regained control, increasing the risk of deeper downside exploration.

For now, however, the inability to sustain lower prices suggests that selling pressure has diminished, at least temporarily. This opens the door for buyers to push prices back toward higher value zones as part of a rebalancing process.

What to expect in the coming price action

As long as XRP remains above the $1.58 range low, the technical outlook supports a recovery toward the $2.00 value area low. This move would represent a logical mean reversion within the current range structure. However, failure to hold $1.58 would invalidate the failed auction and reintroduce downside risk.