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Solana Price Drops 3% but Longs Keep Piling In: 17 Million SOL Explain Why

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Solana (SOL) price trades at $82.20 on April 9, down 3% in 24 hours and 34% year-to-date. Yet leveraged traders are betting heavily on a bounce.

The seven-day liquidation map on Bybit shows $309 million in cumulative long leverage against just $127 million in shorts, a 2.4x mismatch that defies the price weakness. A bullish reversal pattern on the 12-hour chart and an on-chain supply wall may explain why the crowd refuses to turn bearish on Solana price despite the sustained bleed.

Price Weakness Meets a 2.4x Long Bias as a Reversal Pattern Takes Shape

Solana price has dropped almost 5% over the past 30 days while the broader market digested ceasefire uncertainty and capital rotation into equities. The 34% year-to-date decline makes SOL one of the weaker performers among top tokens.

The leverage picture tells a completely different story. On Bybit’s SOL/USDT perpetual market, cumulative long liquidation leverage stands at $308.79 million. Short liquidation leverage sits at $127.02 million. Longs outweigh shorts by roughly 2.4 to 1.

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SOL Liquidation Map
SOL Liquidation Map: CoinGlass

The mismatch becomes less puzzling when the 12-hour chart is considered. SOL is forming an inverse head and shoulders, a bullish reversal pattern. The right shoulder is currently taking shape, and the price is sitting near its base. As long as the pattern remains valid (SOL stays above $76.63), the leveraged crowd appears to be betting that the current dip is the final leg of the right shoulder before a breakout.

Bullish Pattern
Bullish Pattern: TradingView

However, a pattern alone does not justify $309 million in directional bets. The on-chain picture reveals where that conviction is coming from.

17.5 Million SOL Accumulated at the Exact Level Where the Right Shoulder Sits

The cost basis distribution heatmap from Glassnode shows the densest supply cluster sitting between $81.16 and $81.98. Approximately 17.47 million SOL has been accumulated at this range, making it the strongest holder concentration zone on the chart.

The right shoulder’s lowest wick sits at $81.67, directly inside this cluster. The alignment is not a coincidence. Traders and holders who bought between $81.16 and $81.98 are defending their cost basis. Every dip into this zone gets absorbed because selling here would mean realizing losses for a large portion of the supply.

SOL Cost Basis Heatmap
SOL Cost Basis Heatmap: Glassnode

This on-chain wall gives the inverse head and shoulders its structural credibility. The pattern is holding because a real supply base supports it, not just speculative leverage. The longs on Bybit appear to be reading the same signal and positioning accordingly.

However, a $175 million long liquidation cluster sits around $78. If the cost basis wall fails and Solana price drops through $78, the resulting cascade could wipe out the bullish thesis rather quickly.

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Biggest Liquidation Cluster
Biggest Liquidation Cluster: Coinglass

The SOL price levels now determine which outcome plays out.

Solana Price Levels That Decide if the Longs Are Right

SOL trades at $82.20. The first hurdle sits at $84.12 at the 0.236 Fibonacci level. A 12-hour close above $84.12 would suggest the right shoulder was completed earlier and buyers are now pushing toward the neckline.

The neckline zone sits between $86.86 at the 0.5 level and $88.09 at the 0.618 level. A daily close above $88.09 would confirm the breakout and activate the 13.2% measured move projection from the neckline. That targets $98.47-$98.80, per target projection.

On the downside, $81.67 is the right shoulder floor and almost the base of the 17.5 million SOL supply wall. A 12-hour close below $81.67 would deepen the right shoulder and raise questions about the pattern’s validity.

Solana Price Analysis
Solana Price Analysis: TradingView

Below that, $78.38 offers the next technical support. However, the $78 zone is where roughly $175 million in long liquidations are clustered. If SOL reaches that level, forced selling from liquidated positions would likely accelerate the decline and damage the pattern significantly. A break below $76.63 at the head invalidates the inverse head and shoulders entirely.

For now, $88.09 separates a confirmed breakout toward $98.80 from a failed right shoulder that risks triggering $175 million in long liquidations below $78.

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Quantum-safe bitcoin now possible without a soft fork, but costs $200 a pop

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Quantum-safe bitcoin now possible without a soft fork, but costs $200 a pop

A StarkWare researcher has published what he says is the first method for making bitcoin transactions quantum-safe on the live network today, without any changes to the Bitcoin protocol. The scheme, however, costs up to $200 per transaction and is designed as an emergency measure rather than a permanent fix.

In a paper published this week, StarkWare researcher Avihu Levy introduced Quantum Safe Bitcoin, or QSB, a scheme that aims to enable quantum-resistant transactions without requiring changes to the Bitcoin protocol, by replacing signature-based security assumptions with hash-based proofs within its design.

The hash-based design survives the kind of quantum attack that would break today’s cryptography, but shifts the burden from consensus to computation, requiring heavy off-chain GPU work for every transaction.

Think of traditional digital signatures as a handwritten signature on a cheque, which proves you authorized a transaction using a secret key that others can cross check with a public key.

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In Bitcoin, these digital signatures are called ECDSA signatures. They are secure against today’s computers, but a sufficiently powerful future quantum computer could, in theory, derive the secret key from a public key and potentially compromise funds.

QSB addresses that flaw by redesigning the system around a different kind of cryptography, involving hash-based proofs, which are more like a tamper-proof fingerprint, where instead of relying on signature alone, a unique mathematical digest of data is created. This is said to be extremely difficult to forge or reverse, even for powerful computers.

QSB works entirely within Bitcoin’s existing consensus rules for legacy transactions. It requires no soft fork (software upgrade), no miner signaling, and no activation timeline. This is a sharp contrast to BIP-360, the quantum-resistance proposal that was merged into Bitcoin’s official improvement proposal repository in February but has no Bitcoin Core implementation and faces years of governance delay.

The proposal builds on an earlier idea known as Binohash, which added an extra layer of computational work to secure bitcoin transactions. The problem is that it depends on a type of cryptography that quantum computers are expected to break. In practice, that means the protection disappears in a quantum scenario. An attacker could bypass the system’s core security check entirely, making it ineffective.

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Extra cost

The hash-based solution, however, means extremely expensive transactions.

Generating a valid transaction requires searching through billions of possible candidates, a process Levy estimates would cost between $75 and $200 using commodity cloud GPUs. Currently, the cost to send a bitcoin transaction through the blockchain is around 33 cents.

The system also comes with practical hurdles. QSB transactions wouldn’t move through Bitcoin’s normal blockchain like typical payments. Instead, users would likely need to send them directly to miners willing to process them.

They also don’t work with faster, cheaper layers like the Lightning Network, and are far more complicated to create. Generating a transaction would require outsourcing heavy computation to external hardware, rather than simply signing and sending from a wallet.

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Levy describes the scheme as a “last resort measure,” not a replacement for protocol-level upgrades. Proposals such as BIP-360, which aim to introduce quantum-resistant signature schemes through a soft fork, remain the more scalable long-term solution but could take years to activate.

BIP-360’s activation timeline is uncertain. Polymarket bettors are pricing in low odds of it happening this year, and Bitcoin’s governance history offers little reason for urgency — Taproot took roughly seven and a half years from concept to deployment. Then again, mature quantum computers capable of breaking the encryption that secures the network are not arriving tomorrow either.

QSB instead offers something different: a way to survive a quantum break using today’s rules, if users are willing to pay for it.

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Gold, Silver and Oil Drive 65,000% Jump in Commodity Perpetuals

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BitMEX said in a Thursday report that commodity perpetual swaps were the fastest-growing segment of TradFi perps in the first quarter of 2026, with weekly volume rising 65,463% from $38.1 million to $25.0 billion.

The report said silver, crude oil and gold drove most of that growth. By the week of March 15, Silver (XAG) accounted for 34.8% of the market share of tokenized commodities, followed by crude oil (CL) for 27.7%, gold (XAU) at 27.5% and Silver on Hyperliquid for 6%, according to a Thursday report.

BitMEX said the March entry of crude oil added a new leg to the market, attributing that move to Iran-related geopolitical tensions and broader demand for 24/7 commodity exposure on crypto-native venues.

The figures point to a fast-growing niche inside crypto derivatives markets.

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Global Weekly Volume by Commodity Pair. Source: BitMEX

Brent crude oil has risen by around 44% since the first US/Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, from around $69 to above $99 at the time of writing, according to data from Trading Economics. Oil prices peaked at around $114 on Tuesday, their highest level since the beginning of the conflict.

Brent Crude Oil, six-month chart. Source: Tradingeconomics

Weekend dislocations lifted commodity perps

Onchain TradFi perps are driving traders to “speculate and hedge against weekend geopolitical events like the recent Iran conflict, in real time,” Stephan Lutz, CEO at BitMEX, told Cointelegraph. “While the perpetual swaps model will continue to capture significant market share in commodities trading due to its 24/7 nature, we are highly skeptical about tokenising spot assets,” he said.

However, minting physical commodities on the blockchain is complicated by the legacy financial system’s “complex, arbitrary legal rules,” Lutz said, adding that onchain derivatives will continue to eat into the trading share of traditional commodities, until “legacy giants like the CME” launch their own 24/7 trading venues.

Related: Crypto exchanges gain as tokenized commodity market climbs to $7.7B

In the broader market, the total market capitalization of onchain commodities declined by 2.7% during the past 30 days to $7.34 billion as of Thursday, according to data aggregator RWA.xyz.

Tokenized commodities market capitalization. Source: RWA.xyz 

BitMEX, which says it launched the first perpetual swap in 2016, now offers more than 20 TradFi contracts, according to the report.

Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, introduced gold and silver perpetuals in January. It offers contracts spanning precious metals and tokenized equities. Its Silver (XAG) contract saw an average daily volume of $1.31 billion during the quarter, according to the report.

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