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Solana price risks drop to $52 as it enters consolidation trap below key SMA

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Solana price has dropped below the 50-day SMA on the daily chart.

Solana price has rebounded back above $85 on Friday morning, retracing back some of its losses following Wednesday’s rally. However, it still remains below a key SMA level that puts it at risk of moving to its next leg lower over the coming sessions.

Summary

  • Solana price rebounds above $85 but remains below the key 50-day SMA, keeping downside risk intact.
  • Repeating a three-step pattern signals consolidation phase may precede another sell-off.
  • Failure to reclaim the $86 level could trigger a sharp decline toward $52.

According to data from crypto.news, Solana (SOL) price rose 4.5% to an intraday high of $85.2 before stabilizing around $83 at the time of writing. The rebound following a market-wide recovery as Bitcoin moved above $73,000 helped the altcoin to backpedal on some of its losses experienced since dropping from its Wednesday high.

Despite the token’s recent rebound, it remains at risk of a more downside in the coming weeks, as it has failed to reclaim a key SMA level, failure of which has historically led to strong downsides.

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The daily chart shows that Solana price has been trading within the $76 to $92 range since February this year. The token recently moved into the lower end of this range in the past two weeks.

Solana price has dropped below the 50-day SMA on the daily chart.
Solana price has dropped below the 50-day SMA on the daily chart — April 10 | Source: crypto.news

In doing so, Solana price has fallen below the 50-day SMA, which has historically been followed by significant bearish pressure since October 2023.

Notably, Solana price movement has been repeating a three-step cycle every time it prepares to transition to its next leg lower in the past six months.

The said pattern begins when Solana price reclaims the 50-day SMA, which is then followed by a rapid fall back below the indicator while losing the support of previous highs. Following this, the token enters into a consolidation trap, a period when the token moves sideways within a tight range before its final breakdown towards its next leg down begins.

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As derived from the daily chart above, Solana price previously formed this pattern in November last year and again at the beginning of January this year, each time it fell below the 50-day SMA and subsequently entered a consolidation phase for weeks. Following this, it faced a strong sell-off, finally settling lower and forming a new local bottom.

In the most recent instance, Solana price moved above the key resistance in mid-March when it surged all the way to $97. The token has since been on a downtrend, making lower lows and lower highs in the process. Moving on to the last couple of days, the token has been stuck in its consolidation phase in the second step of the current cycle as it hovers between $79 and $81, and rests below the 50-day SMA around the $86 mark.

Assuming that the pattern holds, the ongoing sideways movement should not be interpreted as a sign of stabilization but as the token coiling before initiating its next leg down.

As such, if Solana fails to reclaim the $86 50 day SMA level in the coming sessions, it risks a rapid decline towards $52, a level calculated by subtracting the average percentage drop observed during previous cycles from the current consolidation peak.

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Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Crypto World

XRP Price Flashes Multiple Bottom Signals As Bulls Defend $1.30.

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XRP Price Flashes Multiple Bottom Signals As Bulls Defend $1.30.

XRP (XRP) has been in an eight-month downtrend, with momentum and onchain indicators at levels that previously coincided with macro bottoms.

Data from TradingView reveals that the relative strength index (RSI) of the XRP/BTC ratio is at 24, the most oversold level since October 2025. 

Such low levels in the daily RSI have marked market bottoms for the ratio, ultimately leading to 65% to 345% XRP price breakouts against Bitcoin as seen late 2024 and 2025.

XRP/BTC daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The chart above also shows that the XRP/BTC pair is trading within a long consolidation range, which has previously acted as a strong launching pad for the ratio.

The last time XRP bottomed against Bitcoin around this zone was in June 2025. It marked the beginning of a 61% increase in the XRP/BTC ratio, accompanying a 92% XRP price rally to a multi-year high of $3.66.

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Other instances shown by the yellow bars in the chart reinforce the reliability of this level in marking macro bottoms for XRP/BTC. 

MVRV Z-Score suggests XRP price is bottoming

XRP’s MVRV Z-score is hovering near zero, a level that historically aligns with accumulation zones and market bottoms.

This indicates that most holders are close to breakeven, reducing sell pressure and signalling potential downside exhaustion. Similar patterns appeared in 2021, 2022 and 2024 before major rallies.

XRP MVRV Z-score vs. price. Source: Glassnode

Note that the last time XRP’s MVRV Z-score fell to similar levels in late 2024 coincided with a macro market bottom at $0.30 and preceded a multi-month rally, with the XRP/USD pair rising 500% to a multi-year high above $3. 

Meanwhile, the 0.80 MVRV pricing band, which has historically marked cycle bottoms, is currently at $1.14, coinciding with a 15-month low reached on Feb. 6.

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XRP: MVRV pricing bands. Source: Glassnode

These onchain metrics suggest that XRP is undervalued and may continue the ongoing recovery, potentially rising toward $1.70 or higher

XRP price must hold above $1.30 

Meanwhile, XRP/USD remains cautiously bullish as long as it holds the $1.25-$1.30 support zone. 

“$XRP is sustaining the major support zone between $1.30-$1.25 levels since early Feb’26,” trader ChiefraT said in an X post on Friday, adding:

“If this zone continues to hold, then a short-term bounce towards $1.45 can’t be ruled out.”

XRP/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The importance of this support level is reinforced by cost basis distribution. The heatmap below shows that nearly 1.73 billion XRP were acquired around this price.

XRP cost-basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode

Below that, the next line of defence is the $1.15 demand zone, where the 200-week simple moving average is. 

If XRP/USD drops below this level, it would be in a free-fall toward the measured target of the bear flag at $0.80, or 41% below the current price.

As Cointelegraph reported, holding $1.27-$1.30 would be a sign of strength among the bulls who must push the XRP/USD pair toward the $1.61 range high to regain control. 

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