The Nevada Gaming Control Board has filed a civil enforcement action against KalshiEX LLC, accusing the federally regulated prediction market of offering unlicensed wagering in the state.

Nevada moves to block Kalshi’s event trading

In a complaint filed in Carson City District Court, regulators argue that Kalshi’s sports-linked “event contracts” amount to gambling under Nevada law. The state is seeking declaratory relief and an injunction to stop the company from operating in Nevada without a gaming license.

According to the complaint, making “event contracts” available to Nevada residents without approval from the Nevada Gaming Commission violates multiple provisions of the state’s gaming code.

“The Board continues to vigorously fulfill its obligation to safeguard Nevada residents and gaming patrons,” said NGCB Chairman Mike Dreitzer.

Kalshi quickly moved to shift the case to federal court, reiterating its long-standing position that it falls under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and not state gaming regulators.

State law vs. Federal oversight

Kalshi maintains that its contracts are financial derivatives regulated by the U.S. CFTC, not traditional bets. The company operates as a CFTC-designated exchange and says federal law preempts state gaming rules.

Nevada disagrees. Regulators argue that contracts tied to sports outcomes mirror sportsbook wagers and fall squarely under state jurisdiction.

The Board says allowing unlicensed operators would undermine Nevada’s tightly controlled gaming framework.

Nevada also recently sued the crypto exchange Coinbase over prediction markets launched through a Kalshi partnership.

The lawsuits come amid a growing national legal battle over whether prediction markets such as Kalshi fall under state gambling laws or are exclusively governed by federal regulators. States including Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio and Tennessee have also challenged prediction markets, issuing cease-and-desist orders or filing lawsuits to block unlicensed sports event contracts.

Meanwhile, the CFTC has pushed back, defending its authority over event contracts. In earlier disputes, Kalshi secured temporary relief in court, though those wins have been limited and closely watched.

At issue is who controls the fast-growing prediction market sector — federal derivatives regulators or state gaming boards.

The outcome could reshape how Americans trade on elections, sports and economic events. It may also determine whether prediction markets operate nationwide under a single federal regime, or face a patchwork of state gambling laws.

XRP (XRP) price extended its slide on Wednesday, adding to a downtrend that has erased 44% of its value over the past year.

Amid this, a market analyst has highlighted unusual trading activity emerging from South Korea’s largest crypto exchange, raising questions about its potential impact on XRP’s price dynamics.

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Study of 82 Million Trades Flags Structural Selling in XRP/KRW Market on Upbit

Crypto analyst Dom claims to have uncovered what he describes as a nearly year-long, multi-billion-dollar XRP selling pipeline. In a thread published on X (formerly Twitter), Dom said his findings are based on 82 million tick-level XRP/KRW trades on Upbit, alongside 444 million trades from Binance for comparison.

According to his analysis, Upbit’s XRP pair has recorded a net negative cumulative volume delta every month for the past 10 months. 

“It started with yesterday’s price action. -57M XRP in CVD over 17 hours. It looked insane. So I ran forensic queries – bot fingerprinting, iceberg detection, wash trade checks. The selling was real. Algorithmic. 61% of trades fired within 10ms. Single bot running 17 hours straight with one 33-second pause,” he wrote.

Dom highlighted several months with particularly heavy negative cumulative volume delta (CVD), including April (-165 million XRP), July (-197 million XRP), October (-382 million XRP), and January (-370 million XRP). In total, he reports that only 1 of 46 weeks in the sample period showed net positive buying pressure.

“And it’s not ‘the market’ – Binance XRP/USDT carries 2-5x less sell pressure on the same coin (shocker). In June, Binance was net positive while Upbit bled -218M. The hourly correlation between the two venues is only 0.37. Upbit’s flow is largely its own thing,” the post added.

Dom argues the selling appears algorithmic. Between 57% and 60% of trades were executed within 10 milliseconds, a pattern typically associated with automated systems. He also observed that sell orders frequently appeared in round-number sizes such as 10, 100, or 1,000 XRP.

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Meanwhile, buy orders were often fractional amounts like 2.537 XRP, consistent with KRW-denominated retail purchases.

“Ten million fractional buy orders over 10 months. Compared to the sell side running mechanical round number clips. Two completely different profiles trading against each other on the same venue,” the analyst added.

Furthermore, the analyst noted that from April to September, XRP on Upbit reportedly traded at a 3% to 6% discount to Binance, a “reverse Kimchi Discount.”

“The sellers were accepting 6% worse fills than available on global markets, for many months. They don’t care about the price. They need KRW, are mandated to use Upbit, and/or are Korean holders taking profit,” he stated. “Then October 10 happened. The premium has only briefly gone negative since and the sellers? They doubled their daily rate. From -6.3M/day to -11.2M/day.”

He estimates that the overall activity accounts for 3.3 billion XRP, worth $5 billion, in “net selling.” This represents about 5.4% of the token’s circulating supply. While Dom does not identify a specific entity behind the activity, he describes the flow as consistent, 24/7, and infrastructure-like rather than discretionary trading.

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“So who has enough XRP to sell 300-400M per month for a year straight, doesn’t care about 6% discounts, runs identical algo infrastructure 24/7 and needs KRW specifically or is in some walled garden and can only use Upbit? AND who are they selling to? Who’s been on the other side of that trade? It could be 1 entity, 50 entities or 10k people I’ll let you speculate,” Dom remarked.

Why Does This Matter?

This matters because sustained, large-scale selling may influence price dynamics over time. A consistent flow of sell orders may limit upward momentum, intensify declines during periods of market stress, and absorb buying demand before it translates into meaningful price appreciation. 

The impact is particularly relevant given that XRP was the most traded asset on Upbit in 2025. If this pattern is accurate, it would suggest that a significant source of supply has been active within one of the world’s most active XRP markets, with retail participants frequently on the opposite side of those trades. 

Should that selling pressure decrease or stop, overall market behavior could shift as the balance between supply and demand adjusts.

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The findings come as XRP balances on Upbit have reached a one-year high, exceeding 6.4 billion XRP, accounting for nearly 10% of the circulating supply.

In contrast, exchange reserves continued to decline on Binance, reflecting a divergence between Korean XRP investors and participants in other markets.

Taken together, the reported structural selling on Upbit and the rise in XRP balances on the exchange point to a sustained flow of tokens circulating within that venue. At the same time, contrasting reserve trends and accumulation patterns observed on other exchanges highlight a divergence in regional market behavior. 

Abu Dhabi-linked sovereign investors held more than $1 billion in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF exposure at the end of 2025, a milestone that comes as the broader market faces renewed outflows this week.

The disclosure adds to a broader wave of institutional adoption, after Italian banking giant Intesa Sanpaolo revealed nearly $100 million in Bitcoin ETF holdings in a recent U.S. regulatory filing.

Abu Dhabi’s billion-dollar Bitcoin ETF play

According to fourth-quarter Form 13F filings submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Mubadala Investment Company reported holding 12,702,323 shares of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, valued at approximately $630.7 million as of Dec. 31, 2025.

A separate filing shows Al Warda Investments owned 8,218,712 shares in the same fund, worth roughly $408.1 million at year-end.

Combined, the two Abu Dhabi entities held about 20.9 million shares valued at just over $1.04 billion, underscoring continued sovereign exposure to regulated Bitcoin products offered by BlackRock.

Bitcoin ETF outflows resume

The milestone comes as Bitcoin ETFs recorded renewed selling pressure. Data from SoSoValue shows total daily net outflows of $104.87 million in the latest session. Total net assets across U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs stood at $85.52 billion, while Bitcoin traded around $67,753 at the time of the writing.

Recent flow data shows volatility across late January and February, with several large redemptions interspersed with brief inflow spikes. Despite the short-term outflows, Abu Dhabi’s year-end filings suggest a longer-term allocation strategy rather than tactical trading.

The 13F disclosures reflect positions as of Dec. 31 and do not capture activity in early 2026. However, the scale of the holdings highlights how major state-backed investors remain positioned in U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs even as market sentiment fluctuates.

Digital asset treasury firms with a sole business of investing in tokens have fallen out of investor favor and how.

Billionaire entrepreneur and co-founder of PayPal and Palantir Technologies Peter Thiel’s venture arm has wiped its slate clean of ETHZilla, selling every last share of the ether-hoarding digital asset treasury firm by the end of the last year, fresh paperwork filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission shows.

Thiel’s Founders Fund now shows a big fat zero in ownership, down from a 7.5% stake in August last year.

ETHZilla, a crypto investment firm based in Palm Beach, mimics Michael Saylor’s bitcoin hoarding firm Strategy (MSTR). ETHZilla started as a failed biotech stock called 180 Life Sciences, before pivoting hard to Ethereum (ETH) treasury, amassing over 100,000 ETH tokens at its peak.

The fund, however, panicked as markets peaked in early October and $40 million in ether for buybacks, then $74.5 million more in December to reduce debt from convertible notes. According to Bloomberg, the firm is pivoting hard again, spinning out ETHZilla Aerospace to offer investors tokenized slices of leased jet engines.

Orca stunned the market with a sharp 50% surge in the past 24 hours. The price climbed quickly without any major development announcement. The rally appears driven by renewed investor interest rather than protocol upgrades.

However, strong upside moves often carry elevated risk. Sudden spikes can attract speculative capital and trigger volatility.

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Orca Buying Spree Contributed To The Rally

ORCA balances on exchanges declined significantly over the past day. Nearly 1 million ORCA tokens were bought off exchanges within 24 hours. At the current price of $1.23, that supply is worth approximately $1.23 million.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

This marks the largest single-day accumulation of ORCA this year. Reduced exchange supply typically reflects rising investor conviction. Organic demand appears to have fueled the rally. Utility metrics support this view.

USDC total value locked on Orca increased 100% year over year, reaching nearly $90 million.

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The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL, indicator provides additional context. Recent readings show that prior losses had saturated. High unrealized losses often reduce selling pressure as holders stop capitulating.

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A similar pattern appeared in March 2025. At that time, ORCA rallied nearly 119% after a prolonged downside. Loss saturation can trigger accumulation at perceived value zones. Current data suggests investors stepped in aggressively at discounted levels.

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ORCA Price Finds Support

ORCA trades at $1.214 after posting a 51.7% gain in 24 hours. The token reached an intraday high of $1.421 before retreating below $1.256. This pullback suggests early profit-taking.

The altcoin remains above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This zone acts as a bullish support floor. Holding above it could encourage renewed buying. Sustained demand may push ORCA back toward $1.421. A confirmed breakout could extend gains to $1.603.

However, sharp rallies can reverse quickly. If investors prioritize short-term profits, selling pressure may intensify. A drop below $1.126 would signal weakening structure. Further downside toward $1.025 becomes likely in that case. Losing this support could send ORCA below $1.000 to $0.945, invalidating the bullish thesis.

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ORCA Warning Signs

Risk analysis data introduces another factor. Rugcheck Risk Analysis flagged that Mint Authority remains enabled for the owner’s wallet. This setting can allow token issuance beyond the current supply.

In many cases, mint authority exists for technical reasons. Some projects use lock-and-mint or burn-and-mint mechanisms for cross-chain transfers. However, governance clarity is essential. Orca operates with a decentralized autonomous organization structure.

Typically, a DAO should control token issuance. If a single wallet retains mint authority, concerns may arise. Transparency remains critical for investor trust. BeInCrypto has provided Orca’s team with a Right of Reply. An update will follow upon receiving formal clarification. Until then, investors should monitor this risk factor carefully.

TLDR:

• Bitcoin’s LTH SOPR has dropped to 0.88, a level not seen since the close of the 2023 bear market cycle. 
• Long-term holders are now realizing losses on average, marking a sharp shift from historically resilient behavior. 
• Daily BTC inflows to Binance have reached twice the annual average across several consecutive days recently. 
• Rising exchange inflows from long-term holders signal sustained selling pressure that may weigh on Bitcoin’s short-term recovery.

Bitcoin long-term holders are beginning to feel the weight of a prolonged market correction. The asset remains more than 45% below its previous all-time high.

This sustained decline is creating financial pressure across a wide range of investors. Even the most resilient market participants are now adjusting their behavior in response. The shift marks a notable change for a group known for holding up under difficult conditions.

LTH SOPR Drops Below Key Threshold

The LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has recently crossed below the critical level of 1. It currently sits at 0.88, a level not recorded since the close of the 2023 bear market.

This reading means long-term holders are, on average, selling at a loss. That alone represents a meaningful change in market behavior.

Analyst Darkfost noted in a post on X that the annual average LTH SOPR remains at 1.87. However, the short-term reading has moved well below that average.

The gap between the two figures reflects how quickly conditions have shifted. It points to growing financial strain within a historically patient group of investors.

When long-term holders begin realizing losses, it often signals a deeper phase of market stress. These participants typically sell only when they see value or face genuine pressure.

A move into negative SOPR territory suggests the latter is increasingly the case. The trend warrants close attention from market observers.

The drop below 1.0 also carries weight because of the size of this investor group. Long-term holders control a substantial portion of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

Their decisions carry more influence over price than those of short-term traders. A sustained pattern of loss realization could weigh on recovery efforts.

Rising Binance Inflows Point to Increased Activity

At the same time, long-term holder inflows to Binance have increased sharply in recent weeks. Daily inflows have reached roughly twice the annual average on several consecutive days.

This level of activity is considered exceptionally elevated by historical standards. It points to a clear and deliberate shift in behavior among this group.

Darkfost also noted that this pattern has been building since the last all-time high. The acceleration in recent weeks adds further context to the SOPR data.

Together, the two indicators tell a consistent story about how long-term holders are responding. They are actively managing their exposure rather than simply waiting out the correction.

Binance remains the platform of choice for this activity due to its liquidity. Large holders need deep markets to move significant volumes without major price disruption.

The exchange’s market depth makes it practical for participants managing large positions. Their preference for Binance is therefore a logical outcome of their size.

Rising inflows from long-term holders to exchanges are generally viewed as a bearish signal. More Bitcoin moving onto platforms increases the available supply for sale.

This dynamic could continue to apply downward pressure in the short to medium term. The market may need time before this adjustment phase runs its course.

The US state of Nevada has sued Kalshi after the prediction market company lost its court challenge to stop the state’s regulator from taking action over its sports prediction markets.

The US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit on Tuesday denied Kalshi’s bid to stop Nevada’s gaming regulator from taking action on its sports event contracts, removing a block on the regulator launching a civil suit against the company.

After the decision, the Nevada Gaming Control Board promptly filed a civil enforcement action in state court against Kalshi, which it said sought to block the company “from offering unlicensed wagering in violation of Nevada law.”

Kalshi swiftly filed a motion to have the suit heard in a federal court, repeating its long-held argument that it is “subject to exclusive federal jurisdiction” under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The appeals court order and subsequent lawsuit are a blow to Kalshi in its nearly year-long battle against Nevada to keep its sports contracts active in the state. The company and other prediction markets are facing multiple similar lawsuits from other states.

The company sued the state last year in March after receiving a cease-and-desist order to halt all sports-related markets within the state. In April, a federal court backed Kalshi’s bid to temporarily block Nevada from taking action amid court proceedings.

Kalshi did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Nevada says Kalshi is flouting state law

In its latest lawsuit, the Nevada Gaming Control Board repeated its past claim that Kalshi’s sports event contracts meet the requirements to be licensed under state law, as they allow “users to wager on the outcomes of sporting events.”

Despite making wagers, sports betting and other gaming activities accessible in the State of Nevada, Kalshi is not licensed in Nevada and does not comply with Nevada gaming law, the regulator argued.

In its federal court motion, Kalshi argued that such a claim means the court “must adopt a narrow interpretation” of federal commodity exchange laws, which it asserts it is regulated under by the CFTC.

CFTC chair asserts jurisdiction over prediction markets

Earlier on Tuesday, CFTC chair Mike Selig said his agency filed an amicus brief backing Crypto.com in a similar lawsuit the crypto exchange had brought against Nevada.

Crypto.com had sued Nevada’s regulators in June after similarly receiving a cease-and-desist letter. It also appealed to the Ninth Circuit in November after losing a federal court motion to block the state from taking action.

Related: Crypto lobby forms working group seeking prediction market clarity

The CFTC argued in its brief to the Ninth Circuit that “states cannot invade the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction over CFTC-regulated designated contract markets by re-characterizing swaps trading on DCMs as illegal gambling.”