Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) started 2026 with a steep slide and is on track for a challenging first quarter, echoing patterns seen in prior bear markets. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap has fallen about 22% since January, slipping from roughly $87,700 to the mid-$60k range, with recent prints near $68,000. If that pace holds, Q1 could mark the worst start to a year since the 2018 bear market, when BTC tumbled almost 50%, according to data tracked by CoinGlass. Ether (CRYPTO: ETH), the second-largest asset, has also pushed lower in the year’s early weeks, though its losses have been comparatively milder, aligning with a broader risk-off mood across crypto markets.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin is down roughly 22% year-to-date, trading around $68.6k after opening near $87.7k, signaling entrenched near-term softness.
• The first quarter could become the worst since 2018 for BTC, with 2018 data showing a 49.7% quarterly decline according to CoinGlass.
• Ether has fared similarly in its own context, with about 34.3% losses in the current Q1—the third-worst start among nine observed first quarters historically.
• BTC has posted five straight weeks of losses, including a January drop of around 10.2% and a February trend that remains negative, needing a reversal above $80k to avert further red printing in February.
• Analysts describe the move as a routine correction within a longer-term backdrop of rising institutional interest and halving-cycle dynamics, rather than a structural breakdown.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH

Sentiment: Bearish

Price impact: Negative. The price has declined to about $68,670, indicating ongoing downside pressure in the near term.

Market context: The sector remains sensitive to macro headwinds and liquidity conditions, with a focus on how institutional adoption and supply-side cycles could shape a potential rebound later in the year.

Why it matters

From a market structure perspective, the current pullback highlights how crypto assets are trading in a risk-off environment even as macro narratives evolve. Bitcoin’s retreat from the high-70s and into the 60k territory reflects a mix of profit-taking, cautious positioning by retail participants, and a broader test of support levels after a period of elevated volatility. The context matters because BTC’s price level often informs broader risk appetite in the sector, influencing altcoins and the trajectory of liquidity in the ecosystem.

Historically, the first quarter has displayed pronounced volatility for crypto. In 2018, during a brutal bear market, BTC shed almost half of its value within three months, a benchmark often cited by traders and analysts when assessing risk. In 2025 and 2020, Q1 saw notable declines as well, though the magnitude varied. The current quarter’s descent—paired with ETH’s sharp, yet comparatively less severe, slide—appears to align with a broader pattern: macro uncertainties tend to weigh on risk assets early in the year, even as final-year catalysts or structural developments remain in view.

One factor driving the current mood is the perpetual tug-of-war between risk-off sentiment and the long-run thesis for crypto assets. On one hand, institutions have continued to explore exposure and on-chain activity has shown resilience in certain metrics. On the other hand, macro headwinds—rising rates expectations, liquidity considerations, and geopolitical dynamics—can confine upside moves in the near term. In this context, market participants are watching crucial levels to gauge whether the pullback is a temporary correction or the onset of a more protracted downturn.

Within the price action, BTC’s five-week losing streak underscores a persistent near-term weakness. A slide of around 2.3% in the preceding 24 hours, with prices hovering around $68,670 at press time, suggests a market that remains sensitive to any fresh negative catalysts. CoinGecko tracks Bitcoin’s price and confirms the current trading range, reinforcing the view that a meaningful rebound would require catalysts beyond mere technical bounce—potentially including improved macro clarity or a renewed wave of institutional buying interest.

What to watch next

• Price level to watch: Whether BTC can reclaim the $80,000 threshold to halt or reverse the February red trend.
• Near-term performance: The next weekly closes to determine if the five-week streak of losses ends or extends.
• ETH trajectory: Whether Ether’s decline moderates alongside BTC or diverges due to sector-specific catalysts.
• Macro and on-chain signals: Monitoring shifts in liquidity conditions, risk sentiment, and any halving-cycle-related dynamics that could bolster a longer-term recovery.
• Institutional flow indicators: Any uptick in demand from well-funded participants that could support a sustained move higher once macro conditions stabilize.

Sources & verification

• CoinGlass data on Bitcoin’s quarterly performance and historical comparisons to 2018 (bear market) data.
• CoinGecko price data confirming BTC around $68k–$69k and daily movement metrics.
• LVRG Research commentary from Nick Ruck on BTC’s correctional phase and long-term resilience.
• Twitter/X reference to DaanCrypto’s assessment of Q1 volatility and its historical context.

Bitcoin’s Q1 trajectory amid macro headwinds and halving dynamics

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is navigating a challenging start to 2026, with a renewed sense of caution across markets. After opening the year near $87,700, the benchmark asset has ceded roughly a quarter of its value, slipping into the mid-60k zone as headlines about liquidity and policy remain in focus. The decline mirrors patterns seen at the outset of prior downturns, where quarterly losses in the double-digit range have not always translated into a permanent downturn but instead have persisted until a new phase of accumulation takes hold. CoinGlass data help frame the severity: the first quarter of 2018, for example, remains the gold standard for a severe quarterly drawdown in the BTC bear era. The current slide has revived debates about whether the market is entering a longer-term correction or simply testing support before a potential resumption of upside.

Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) is not immune to the broader risk-off tone, though its drawdown has followed a somewhat different cadence. The leading altcoin has faced substantial selling pressure in Q1, with losses that stand at roughly 34% so far this quarter. Historically, ETH has shown red in a minority of its first quarters, but the current figure places it among its harsher starts. The divergence between BTC and ETH’s path underscores the nuanced dynamics within the crypto market, where Bitcoin often drives overall market psychology while the altcoin complex trails in response to sector-specific catalysts and cross-asset risk metrics.

Market observers have pointed to a recurring theme: the first quarter has a reputation for volatility in crypto markets, a fact that traders reference when calibrating risk and exposure. Daan Trades Crypto, an analyst cited in recent commentary, notes that quarterly fluctuations tend to be self-contained at the outset of a given year, and that early-year losses do not always predict how the rest of the year will unfold. Such commentary is supported by a broader body of historical data indicating that while Q1 performance can be harsh, it does not invariably preface a structural market decline, particularly when halving cycles and institutional adoption offer longer-term catalysts.

Current price action places BTC at a crossroads. When prices last crossed into the $70k range, buyers often argued for a swift rebound on improved macro sentiment or renewed liquidity. That level has since yielded to selling pressure, and a sustained breach of price levels around $68k–$69k raises the question of whether the market is undergoing a deeper retracement or simply pausing before the next leg up. For traders and investors, the key remains whether macro signals align with on-chain activity and whether the next set of data points—be it inflation prints, rate expectations, or regulatory developments—could tilt the balance in favor of buyers or sellers over the coming weeks.

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Bitcoin price is hovering around $68,500 as traders watch for potential volatility around Chinese New Year, a period that has historically coincided with short-term shifts in crypto liquidity.

Chinese New Year effect — seasonal pressure or coincidence?

Chinese New Year has at times aligned with weakness in Bitcoin (BTC) and broader crypto markets.

The theory is that traders in Asia may reduce exposure ahead of the holiday to free up cash, leading to temporary selling pressure. In some past cycles, BTC saw pullbacks in the days leading into Lunar New Year.

However, the pattern is far from consistent. There have also been years where Bitcoin rallied shortly after the holiday period. Crypto markets today are also more globally distributed than in earlier cycles, reducing the likelihood that one regional holiday alone drives price direction.

Adding another layer, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently said retail users on the exchange are “buying the dip.”

According to his data, retail BTC and ETH balances in February are equal to or higher than December levels, suggesting long-term holders are accumulating rather than capitulating.

If that trend holds, it could cushion any seasonal selling.

What Bitcoin price analysis shows

On the daily chart, BTC remains below its 50-day simple moving average near $83,900, confirming that the short-term trend is still bearish.

Price has formed a series of lower highs since topping near the mid-$90,000 range in January.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 35, recovering from deeply oversold levels near 20 earlier this month. That rebound suggests selling momentum has cooled, but it does not yet confirm a trend reversal.

Immediate support is near $65,000, with stronger support in the $60,000–$62,000 zone, where a sharp capitulation wick formed earlier in February. Resistance stands near $72,000, followed by a heavier supply zone between $76,000 and $80,000.

A break below $65,000 could reopen downside risk toward $60,000. A decisive move above $72,000 would be the first sign that bulls are regaining control, regardless of seasonal narratives.

Crypto markets are deep red on Monday, with industry leader bitcoin sliding lower before a packed week of economic data.

At press time, bitcoin BTC$70,413.42 traded near $68,200, down nearly 3% over 24 hours, with XRP XRP$1.4748, ether ETH$2,067.21, DOGE$0.1141 registering much bigger losses. Losses hit 85 of the top 100 tokens by market cap, with privacy coins like monero XMR$319.40 and zcash ZEC$284.83 down 10% and 8%, respectively.

Smart contract tokens bled too, with the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index down nearly 6%, pushing its year-to-date drop to 28%.

The market weakness looks particularly disappointing against the backdrop of the weak U.S. consumer price index data released last week that kept hopes of Fed rate cuts alive.

The CPI growth slowed to 2.4% year-on-year in January from 2.7% in December, the official data showed, reinforcing expectations for at least two 25 basis point rate cuts by the Fed this year. This resulted in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling to 4.05%, the lowest since early December. Bitcoin rallied, rising from nearly $66,800 on friday to over $70,000 over the weekend, but failed to establish a foothold there.

Vikram Subburaj, CEO of the India-based regulated Giottus exchange, said selective demand is the reason why rallies struggle to hold.

“Risk appetite stayed selective and macro cross-currents kept traders defensive. In derivatives, the market continues to behave as if it is ‘de-leveraging first, asking questions later.’ Rallies have struggled to hold and dips are being bought only selectively near obvious levels,” he said in an email to CoinDesk.

Macro heavy weak

A packed week of macro data lies ahead, with traders eyeing the minutes of the January Fed meeting and the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), for fresh positioning signals.

“PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, will be closely monitored for confirmation that price pressures are moderating, particularly after CPI showed only gradual disinflation and inflation remains above the 2% target,” Dessislava Laneva, Nexo dispatch analyst, said in an email.

“Markets will assess both the monthly momentum and year-on-year trend for implications for the policy path.” Laneva added.

In traditional markets, Mark Nash of Jupiter Asset Management, a high-profile yen bear has flipped bullish, forecasting 8–9% yen appreciation, particularly against the Swiss franc.

The yen and bitcoin have hit a record positive correlation in recent months, which makes any yen strength a key catalyst for bitcoin bulls.

Bitcoin may be headed for its worst first quarter in eight years, with data showing Bitcoin is already down 22.3% since the start of the year.

The asset began the year trading around $87,700 and has declined by around $20,000 to current lows of around $68,000, putting it on track for its worst first quarter since the 2018 bear market — which fell almost 50%, according to CoinGlass. 

Bitcoin (BTC) has declined in seven of the past thirteen Q1s, with the most recent being 2025 when it lost 11.8%, 2020 when it shed 10.8%, and the largest ever, 2018, when it dumped 49.7% in just three months. 

“The first quarter of the year is known for its volatile nature,” observed analyst Daan Trades Crypto on Sunday.

“So it’s safe to say, whatever happens in Q1 does not generally translate over further down the line, according to the historical price action,” he added.

First-ever red Jan and Feb?

BTC has only ever seen two consecutive first quarters of losses in the bear market years of 2018 and 2022.

Comparatively, Ether (ETH) has only seen red in three of the past nine first quarters, with the current period shaping up to be its third-worst historically, with 34.3% losses so far.  

Related: Bitcoin loses $2.3B in biggest crash since 2021 as capitulation intensifies: Analyst

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is also on track to see its first-ever consecutive January and February in the red. The asset lost 10.2% in January and is down 13.4% so far this month. It needs to reclaim $80,000 to prevent a red February. 

Bitcoin is in a correctional phase

Nick Ruck, the director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the ongoing decline in BTC price amid persistent global economic uncertainty “reflects a regular correctional phase rather than a structural breakdown in the asset’s long-term trajectory.” 

“While short-term pressures could intensify if macroeconomic headwinds persist, historical patterns show Bitcoin’s resilience often leads to strong recoveries in later months, particularly as institutional adoption and halving cycle dynamics continue to strengthen its potential,” he added. 

Meanwhile, BTC has entered its fifth consecutive week of losses, falling 2.3% over the past 24 hours to $68,670 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko. 

Magazine: Coinbase misses Q4 earnings, Ethereum eyes ‘V-shaped recovery’: Hodler’s Digest