Strategy’s 673K BTC Treasury Withstands Extreme Market Scenarios, Analysis Shows

TLDR:

• Strategy’s 673,783 BTC position covers annual $823M dividend needs across multiple severe price scenarios.
• USD Reserve provides 2.7 years of operational runway before any bitcoin sales become necessary for dividends.
• STRC issuance at par creates a self-funding model, retaining only 11% of proceeds for dividend pre-funding.
• At $25M daily STRC sales, Strategy generates $5.56B annually for Bitcoin acquisition after dividend coverage. 

Strategy’s bitcoin holdings and financial structure continue to withstand scrutiny as analysts examine the company’s capacity to maintain operations during severe market downturns. 

Recent calculations reveal the firm holds 673,783 BTC as of January 4, 2026, providing a substantial cushion against dividend obligations. 

The analysis suggests Strategy’s position remains secure even under extreme price scenarios, challenging concerns about sustainability.

Bitcoin Reserve Provides Multi-Year Coverage

Strategy faces an annual cash requirement of approximately $823 million for dividend payments. Market observers have calculated the bitcoin sales needed at various price points to meet these obligations. 

At $90,000 per bitcoin, the company would need to sell roughly 9,100 BTC annually. A 50% decline to $45,000 would require approximately 18,300 BTC per year.

Even catastrophic scenarios appear manageable given the treasury size. An 80% drop to $18,000 would necessitate selling around 45,700 BTC yearly. 

A 90% decline to $9,000 would require approximately 91,400 BTC annually. These figures represent single-digit percentages of total holdings in most cases.

The company maintains additional liquidity through its USD reserve. This buffer provides approximately 2.7 years of operational runway before bitcoin sales become necessary. Multiple adverse conditions would need to align simultaneously for dividend impairment to occur.

STRC Issuance Creates Self-Funding Mechanism

Strategy’s preferred stock offering operates on a mathematically sustainable model when trading near par value. 

Each $1 billion of STRC notional generates an annual dividend obligation of roughly $110 million at the 11% rate. Monthly payments amount to approximately $9.17 million per billion dollars issued.

The company retains only 11% of proceeds in its USD Reserve to pre-fund twelve months of dividends. At $25 million daily issuance, Strategy could raise $6.25 billion annually across 250 trading days. The dividend obligation on this new capital totals $687.5 million per year.

After setting aside dividend coverage, approximately $5.56 billion remains available for bitcoin purchases and working capital. 

The ATM program explicitly permits using net proceeds for general corporate purposes and bitcoin acquisition. Proceeds can also fund dividends on other preferred stock series, functioning as a system-level liquidity tool.

The variable dividend structure on STRC supports price stability near par value. Market demand at this level determines capacity rather than payment ability. 

This design addresses previous concerns about dividend sustainability during volatile market conditions.