The Winners and Losers From 2026’s Mix of Tax and Benefit Cuts

For consumers, 2025 was filled with a series of anxiety-inducing tariff announcements. Tax cuts will help pad wallets in 2026, but not across all income levels.

In Trump’s first term, tax cuts preceded tariffs, which cushioned the impact on consumers. “You had the carrots first, and then the sticks were less painful,” said Greg Melich, equity analyst at Evercore. This time the order has flipped, bringing the punitive effects first. That has clearly soured consumer mood: The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, which started the year at 71.7, ended it at 52.9.