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These 2 XRP Price Recovery Signals Might Undo Recent 16% Dip

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XRP Spot ETF Flows.

XRP continues to struggle as selling pressure keeps the token locked in a month-long downtrend heading into February. A recent sharp pullback has reinforced bearish sentiment, weighing on both spot markets and related investment products.

The weakness has also carried over into XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), where flow volatility highlights lingering investor caution. Nevertheless, signs of stabilization are appearing beneath the surface, which would determine whether XRP price will further downside or recover.

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XRP ETFs Are Yet To Do Better

Spot XRP ETFs posted net outflows of $404,690 on Monday despite closing the previous week on a positive note, recording $16.79 million on Friday. The improvement in ETF flows was reversed as this week began, signaling a comeback of selling pressure.

The shift shows that the macro bearishness hasn’t disappeared completely yet, given that on Thursday, January 29, XRP ETFs recorded $92.92 million in outflows, the largest since launch. That session coincided with a broader market crash and a 9% drop in XRP price.

Stabilizing flows offer much-needed support for restoring market confidence, a key requirement for any XRP price recovery. However, broader sentiment remains fragile, as doubts about a sustained rebound continue to weigh on investor outlook.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

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XRP Spot ETF Flows.
XRP Spot ETF Flows. Source: SoSoValue

Saturating Losses Could Prevent Sell-Off

On-chain data shows short-term holders facing heavy unrealized losses. The STH Net Unrealized Profit and Loss metric currently sits at -0.38. This marks the deepest loss level since July 2022 and a three and a half year high. This reflects widespread capitulation among recent XRP buyers.

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Despite appearing negative, rising STH losses may reduce immediate selling risk. Short-term holders are historically reactive, often selling quickly during profit periods. With losses deepening, selling incentives weaken.

This dynamic can temporarily suppress supply, giving XRP price space to stabilize and attempt a recovery if demand improves.

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XRP STH-NUPL
XRP STH-NUPL. Source: Glassnode

XRP Price Bounceback Likely

XRP price is trading near $1.62 at the time of writing, sitting below the $1.70 resistance. The altcoin has remained in a steady downtrend since early January. Last week’s 16% decline reinforced bearish structure, keeping XRP below key moving averages and limiting upside momentum.

XRP Price Analysis
XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, these two factors suggest a short-term rebound remains possible. The first is that the short-term holder losses appear saturated, lowering distribution risk. The second is that momentum indicators show XRP is oversold, increasing the probability of a technical bounce toward $1.79.

The Money Flow Index currently sits near the oversold threshold. A decisive dip into oversold territory often precedes reversals. In a similar setup previously, XRP surged 14% within 48 hours. If broader market conditions remain supportive, a comparable reaction could unfold during this recovery attempt.

XRP MFI
XRP MFI. Source: TradingView

However, downside risk persists if bullish momentum fails to materialize. A rejection below $1.70 may expose XRP to renewed selling pressure. Under this scenario, the price could fall to $1.54 or even $1.47. Losing these support levels would invalidate the bullish thesis and extend the ongoing decline.

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Crypto World

Ethereum Dust Attacks Have Increased Post-Fusaka

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Ethereum Dust Attacks Have Increased Post-Fusaka

Stablecoin-fueled dusting attacks are now estimated to make up 11% of all Ethereum transactions and 26% of active addresses on an average day, after the Fusaka upgrade made transactions cheaper, according to Coin Metrics. 

Ethereum is now seeing more than 2 million average daily transactions, spiking to almost 2.9 million in mid-January, along with 1.4 million daily active addresses — a 60% increase over prior averages.

The Fusaka upgrade in December made using the network cheaper and easier by improving onchain data handling, reducing the cost of posting information from layer-2 networks back to Ethereum.

Digging through the dust on Ethereum

Coin Metrics said it analyzed over 227 million balance updates for USDC (USDC) and USDt (USDT) on Ethereum from November 2025 through January 2026.

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It found that 43% were involved in transfers of less than $1 and 38% were under a single penny — “amounts with insignificant economic purpose other than wallet seeding.”

“The number of addresses holding small ‘dust’ balances, greater than zero but less than 1 native unit, has grown sharply, consistent with millions of wallets receiving tiny poisoning deposits.”

Pre-Fusaka, stablecoin dust accounted for roughly 3 to 5% of Ethereum transactions and 15 to 20% of active addresses, it said. 

“Post-Fusaka, these figures jumped to 10-15% of transactions and 25-35% of active addresses on a typical day, a 2-3x increase.”

However, the remaining 57% of balance updates involved transfers above $1, “suggesting the majority of stablecoin activity remains organic,” Coin Metrics stated.

Median Ethereum transaction size fell sharply after Fusaka. Source: Coin Metrics

Users need to be wary of address poisoning

In January, security researcher Andrey Sergeenkov pointed to a 170% increase in new wallet addresses in the week starting Jan. 12, and also suggested it was linked to a wave of address poisoning attacks taking advantage of low gas fees

These “dusting” attacks typically involve malicious actors sending fractions of a cent worth of a stablecoin from wallet addresses that resemble legitimate ones, duping users into copying the wrong address when making a transaction.

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Related: Ethereum activity surge could be linked to dusting attacks: Researcher

Sergeenkov said $740,000 had already been lost to address poisoning attacks. The top attacker sent nearly 3 million dust transfers for just $5,175 in stablecoin costs, according to Coin Metrics.

Dust does not represent genuine economic usage

Coin Metrics reported that approximately 250,000 to 350,000 daily Ethereum addresses are involved in stablecoin dust activity, but the majority of network growth has been genuine.  

“The majority of post-Fusaka growth reflects genuine usage, though dust activity is a factor worth noting when interpreting headline metrics.”

Magazine: DAT panic dumps 73,000 ETH, India’s crypto tax stays: Asia Express

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