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Tokenized perpetual swaps hit $31 billion weekly volume on commodities volatility

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IMF warns tokenization could bring crypto risks into global financial markets

Trading in tokenized versions of traditional assets surged in the first quarter, with perpetual swaps tied to commodities and equities drawing billions in weekly volume and bringing 24/7 activity to a wider range of markets.

Weekly trading volume of such assets jumped to $30.7 billion, or 1.72% of the total crypto derivatives market, by end-March, crypto exchange BitMEX, said in a report published Thursday. That’s up from 0.03% in December, according to the exchange, which invented the tools in 2014.

Commodities powered the rise. Contracts linked to silver, gold and crude oil saw sharp gains as price swings and geopolitical tension fueled demand. Oil trading alone climbed to $6.9 billion in weekly volume after the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran started Feb. 28, prompting a surge in round-the-clock oil trading volumes.

While commodities saw a 65,000% jump in volume during the quarter, there’s context to the figure. Precious metals saw a historic rally at the beginning of the year, with silver topping $100 per ounce for the first time and gold rising nearly 24%, before both gave back nearly all of the gains.

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Equities saw a similar breakout. Perpetual swaps tied to stocks grew 908% over the quarter to roughly $4.9 billion in weekly volume, BitMEX found.

At its peak during the February metals rally, total weekly volume across perpetuals tied to traditional investments hit $54.5 billion.

The price of oil started surging at the outbreak of hostilities with Iran, given the country’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows.

Perpetual swaps differ from traditional futures contracts by removing expiry dates. Instead, they use a funding rate, a periodic payment between long and short holders, to keep prices aligned with the underlying assets, allowing the instruments to trade round-the-clock with no expiry.

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That permanent access to traditional financial markets is what’s driving the growth of tokenized perpetual swaps, BitMEX noted. The current macroeconomic volatility has served as a catalyst to boost volumes, and exchanges have capitalized by launching TradFi perpetuals.

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Binance Integrates Prediction Markets Into App via Predict.fun

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Crypto Breaking News

Binance Wallet is embracing the prediction-market craze, announcing that it will bring probability-based markets to its app through an integration with Predict.fun. The exchange said it will cover all trading and settlement fees for users, making the experience effectively gasless on the BNB Smart Chain. The move signals Binance’s intent to capture a share of a rapidly expanding segment that the market data suggests is moving billions of dollars in volume each month.

In a notice issued this week, Binance said the new feature will be delivered via a third-party integration with Predict.fun, with the initial rollout focusing on probability-based markets. By underwriting the costs of trades and settlements, the company frames the service as a frictionless entry point for users seeking to speculate on outcomes in politics, sports, and other topics—without the typical gas fees that can erode returns on decentralized networks.

Key takeaways

  • Binance Wallet will offer probability-based markets via Predict.fun, with gasless trading and Binance-funded fees on the BNB Smart Chain.
  • The development reflects growing appetite for prediction markets, which have surged in activity and user interest over the past year.
  • Industry momentum comes with regulatory headwinds: US agencies have pursued actions against prediction-market platforms over alleged gaming-law violations, even as the CFTC contends it has exclusive jurisdiction over such markets.
  • TRM Labs data point to a broader market expansion, with a January estimate of around $20 billion in monthly volume across prediction markets—a sharp rise from early 2025 levels.

Binance’s foray into prediction markets

The Binance announcement frames the integration as a way to widen access to prediction markets for everyday users. By partnering with Predict.fun, Binance is tapping a platform that offers contracts tied to event outcomes—ranging from political developments to other real-world occurrences—while removing traditional cost barriers through sponsor-funded trading and settlement fees on the BNB Smart Chain.

The “gasless” headline is central to the offer. If trades are executed and settled on the BSC network, Binance says it will cover the associated costs, effectively lowering the user’s friction to engage with probability-based bets. While the initial phase centers on Predict.fun, the arrangement positions Binance as a gateway for a broader audience to participate in market-based sentiment around events beyond standard crypto trading.

Beyond the technical convenience, the move signals a broader strategic push by major crypto platforms to explore more specialized markets. Prediction markets, which allow participants to place bets on the probability of future events, have grown in popularity as a way to hedge information or express views on uncertain outcomes. The Binance integration comes amid a broader industry trend of large exchanges taking a more active role in prediction-market ecosystems, sometimes inviting scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers alike.

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Momentum, scale, and the regulatory backdrop

Industry data illustrate a market that has accelerated rapidly. According to TRM Labs, monthly transaction activity across prediction-market platforms reached about $20 billion in January, representing roughly a twentyfold increase versus early 2025. The rebound underscores growing user interest in event-based contracts and the potential for new participants to experiment with these markets through mainstream platforms.

However, the regulatory environment remains complex and unsettled. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has argued it holds exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, even as several state-level authorities have pursued enforcement actions against platforms offering such bets, particularly in the sports betting domain. The legal tension reflects broader questions about whether and how prediction markets fit inside traditional gambling frameworks and financial regulation.

Within this context, Kalshi and Polymarket—two notable players in the space—have faced ongoing legal scrutiny and regulatory maneuvering. Kalshi, which has repeatedly argued for a clear regulatory pathway, has encountered actions from state gaming authorities while federal regulators push back on some state-level actions. The CFTC’s stance on jurisdiction has been a recurring theme in industry discussions about what governance looks like for prediction-market ecosystems in the United States.

Amid these dynamics, industry leaders have weighed in on relationships with policymakers and the potential for perceived conflicts of interest. In an Axios interview published this week, Kalshi executives Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara addressed questions about ties to political figures and potential regulatory leverage. Lara stated that Kalshi has not solicited favors and that leadership has not sought regulatory changes in exchange for advantages, while noting that claims of influence over policy are not part of the company’s operating reality. The interview highlighted the broader industry sensitivity around connections in Washington and the importance of maintaining a clear separation between business activity and regulatory advocacy.

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Why this matters for investors, users, and builders

For investors, Binance’s entry into prediction markets could unlock new liquidity channels and user engagement metrics. A gasless, fee-subsidized model lowers the barrier to experimentation with event-based contracts, potentially drawing in traders who might not participate in more traditional crypto derivatives. If the model proves sustainable, it could create a competitive dynamic among exchanges to offer similar prediction-market access, reinforcing network effects in user acquisition and retention.

For builders and developers, the Binance-Predict.fun collaboration demonstrates how major platforms are willing to strand- test cross-domain integrations—combining on-chain infrastructure, third-party markets, and user-friendly interfaces. The approach could spur further partnerships, more standardized interfaces for event-based contracts, and clearer product roadmaps that marry traditional finance-style clarity with crypto-native flexibility.

From a risk perspective, the ongoing regulatory scrutiny around prediction markets means participants should remain mindful of jurisdictional differences and potential policy shifts. While the CFTC has asserted its jurisdiction in this space, state actions and evolving enforcement priorities could shape the available landscape for US users. As more platforms experiment with prediction-based products, market participants should watch for changes in compliance requirements, licensing, and potential restrictions on specific contract topics or venues.

Ultimately, Binance’s move to integrate probability-based markets with gasless trading marks another step in the sector’s maturation. It highlights both the appetite for accessible, event-driven financial instruments and the friction points that come with regulatory complexity. As the year unfolds, observers will be watching not only user adoption and volume but also how regulators, platform operators, and industry groups negotiate a path forward for prediction markets within the broader crypto economy.

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Readers should keep an eye on how the integration with Predict.fun performs in practice, what contract types gain traction, and whether other major players accelerate similar offerings. The coming quarters could define whether prediction markets become a standard feature in mainstream crypto wallets or remain a niche segment with uneven regulatory clearance.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Ex-SEC, Coinbase Staffer Becomes Securitize President

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SEC, JPMorgan Chase, RWA Tokenization, Companies

Newly appointed company president Brett Redfearn briefly worked as Coinbase’s head of capital markets and served for more than three years at the SEC.

Tokenization platform Securitize has named Brett Redfearn as president, with the former official at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) also joining its board of directors.

Securitize’s Thursday notice said Redfearn previously served as the SEC’s director of its division of trading and markets, worked as Coinbase’s head of capital markets and held various roles over a decade spent at JPMorgan. He most recently has been a member of Securitize’s advisory board.

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Redfearn is the latest former government official who has moved into the crypto industry, highlighting questions about their roles overseeing digital assets while in office. Caroline Pham, who served as a commissioner and acting chair of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), left the agency in December to join crypto payments infrastructure company MoonPay.

SEC, JPMorgan Chase, RWA Tokenization, Companies
Source: Securitize

Related: Crypto exchanges chase TradFi commodities market as pricing gaps persist

He joins Securitize as the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) has seen increasing demand in the crypto industry. According to data from analytics platform RWA.xyz, the company had $3.85 billion in distributed asset value in March, at a time when tokenized stocks surpassed $1 billion in total value onchain.

SEC gets new enforcement chief, but questions loom over crypto cases

On Wednesday, the SEC announced that David Woodcock would become the director of its Division of Enforcement starting on May 4, replacing acting head Sam Waldon.

Several US lawmakers are calling for answers from SEC Chair Paul Atkins regarding the departure of former enforcement director Margaret Ryan. Members of Congress questioned whether Ryan left due to the SEC’s decision to drop several crypto-related enforcement cases, including one against Tron founder Justin Sun.

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