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Trump Oil Waiver for India Signals Ripple Effects for Crypto Markets

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • U.S. Treasury grants India a 30-day waiver to buy stranded Russian oil cargoes amid Gulf energy disruptions
  • Iran-linked attacks on Gulf infrastructure tightened oil supply and lifted global price volatility
  • U.S. oil output hit 13.6M barrels daily in 2025 as Trump energy policy expanded production
  • Crypto markets track oil volatility since macro liquidity and risk sentiment affect digital assets

The United States moved to stabilize global oil supply after new geopolitical pressure hit energy markets. A temporary waiver now allows Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil cargoes stranded at sea. 

The policy aims to ease supply disruptions following attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure. Crypto traders often watch such macro developments because shifts in energy markets frequently influence digital asset liquidity.

Trump Oil Waiver and Global Energy Supply Impact on Crypto Market

Scott Bessent announced a temporary 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to buy stranded Russian oil shipments. The Treasury Department framed the move as a short-term measure to maintain oil flow.

According to Bessent, the waiver only applies to cargoes already stranded at sea. The authorization limits transactions that might generate revenue for Russia.

The policy follows attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure linked to Iran. Those disruptions pushed global oil prices higher and tightened supply conditions.

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Bessent said the measure also protects global markets from sudden shortages. He noted that the United States expects India to increase purchases of American crude.

The announcement supports the broader energy agenda of Donald Trump. U.S. crude output reached a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025.

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Treasury data shows production rose by more than 600,000 barrels compared with earlier levels. Officials expect elevated production to continue into 2026.

Energy shocks often influence macro risk sentiment across financial markets. Digital asset traders frequently track oil volatility as a signal of broader liquidity shifts.

Crypto Market Reaction to Energy Volatility and Liquidity Signals

Energy disruptions can affect inflation expectations and monetary policy debates. Those macro forces frequently influence crypto trading activity.

Oil price spikes sometimes trigger wider market volatility. Risk assets including cryptocurrencies often move in response to those macro signals.

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Supply shocks also shape global liquidity conditions. When energy prices climb, investors sometimes rotate capital across commodities, equities, and crypto.

The waiver aims to prevent sudden supply shortages in global oil markets. Stable energy supply reduces pressure on transport, manufacturing, and broader economic activity.

Digital asset markets often react when macro uncertainty rises. Bitcoin trading volumes historically increase during periods of geopolitical or energy instability.

Crypto investors also monitor geopolitical developments that affect commodities. Oil, gold, and Bitcoin often appear together in macro risk discussions.

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The short-term waiver signals continued coordination between energy and financial policy. That intersection increasingly shapes how investors interpret market risk.

Treasury officials emphasized that the measure remains temporary. The goal centers on stabilizing supply without granting Russia lasting financial benefit.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Relief Rally Fades as Bear Market Signals Hold

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Bitcoin Relief Rally Fades as Bear Market Signals Hold

Bitcoin staged a brief relief rally above $74,000 on Thursday, but it has already petered out as analysts predict a persistent bear market will keep momentum subdued. 

“Bitcoin is still in a bear market despite the recent rally,” on-chain analytics company CryptoQuant said on Thursday.

The platform’s Bull Score Index, a composite indicator that measures the overall health of Bitcoin (BTC) using a combination of fundamental and technical metrics, remains at 10 out of 100, “deep in bearish territory,” it said.

“Even after the recent price rally, fundamental and technical indicators still point to a bear market environment,” it stated. 

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“The current move is likely just a relief rally, not the start of a new bull phase.”

Bitcoin briefly tapped a one-month high of $74,000 on Coinbase on Thursday, touching the 50-day exponential moving average, according to TradingView. However, it has already lost more than $3,000, falling back below $71,000 during Friday morning trading. 

The Bull Score Index remains deep in bear territory. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin still vulnerable to renewed downside pressure

Nick Ruck, the director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the crypto market’s recent relief rally came on “renewed risk appetite and ETF inflows,” but cautioned that the advance has “quickly faced headwinds with prices pulling back toward $71,000 amid persistent macro uncertainties and fading momentum.”

While the brief push provided a welcome relief rally amid supportive liquidity conditions, “ongoing bear market dynamics reinforce caution as softer macro signals, like the anticipated slowdown in February nonfarm payrolls, keep cryptocurrencies vulnerable to renewed downside pressure,” he said.

BTC quickly loses momentum, slipping 4.7% since Thursday’s high. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin could see renewed buying interest

CryptoQuant said that a positive Coinbase Premium has signaled renewed US buying interest, driving the recent rally

Related: Bitcoin slide slowing, but bear market still in play: Analysts

Bitcoin spot demand from US-based investors also switched from contraction to growth, as seen by the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium “switching from deeply negative territory in early February to the most positive since October,” they said.

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Selling pressure from traders and long-term holders has also eased after unrealized losses reached levels not seen since July 2022.

Meanwhile, analysts at SwissBlock observed on Friday that “momentum is flashing a critical shift,” adding “We’re exiting peak negative momentum, the kind of transition that often precedes a regime change.” 

Magazine: Would Bitcoin really be at $200K if not for Jane Street? Trade Secrets