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Trump taps Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair, sets stage for high-stakes battle over central bank independence

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Trump taps Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair, sets stage for high-stakes battle over central bank independence

President Donald Trump on Friday named former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as chair of the U.S. central bank, capping months of speculation and intensifying scrutiny over the future independence of the Fed at a moment of persistent inflation, slowing growth, and mounting political pressure.

Summary

  • The Warsh pick ends a months-long search and sets up a contentious confirmation process that puts Fed independence squarely in the spotlight.
  • Warsh is considered an experienced central banker despite his past calls for a “regime change” at the Fed and Trump’s push for aggressive interest-rate cuts.
  • A Justice Department probe into Jerome Powell fuels growing debate over how much influence the White House should have over monetary policy.

The nomination of Warsh, 55, a veteran of Wall Street and the Fed, is widely seen as a bid to install a chair aligned with Trump’s calls for lower interest rates, even as markets remain skeptical that Warsh would act as a political proxy. While the pick is unlikely to spark immediate market volatility, it sets up a contentious confirmation process and a broader debate over how far the White House can—and should—go in influencing monetary policy.

Trump announced the decision on Truth Social, praising Warsh as a proven leader who could go down as “one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best.” The move ends a prolonged and unusually public search that at one point included more than a dozen candidates and was closely watched by investors, economists, and lawmakers.

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Warsh previously served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, spanning the global financial crisis, and has since been a frequent commentator on monetary policy. His experience and credibility helped reassure markets, which showed only modest reaction following the announcement. Stock futures were slightly lower Friday morning but well off their lows once Warsh emerged as the clear choice.

Warsh has been sharply critical of the current Fed leadership. He told CNBC that he wanted a “regime change” at the central bank, arguing that its credibility had eroded under the existing leadership. That stance could place him at odds with an institution built around consensus and gradualism.

Trump’s decision comes as the Fed faces one of its most challenging environments in decades. Inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target, government borrowing continues to rise, and the labor market is soft.

Fed faces unusual political pressure

Tensions escalated recently after the Justice Department subpoenaed Powell over a costly renovation of the Fed’s Washington, D.C., headquarters. Powell has characterized the investigation as a “pretext” to force easier monetary policy, a claim that has deepened concerns about political interference.

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Trump and senior administration officials have openly questioned long-standing norms around Fed independence, floating ideas that include tighter White House oversight and changes to how interest-rate decisions are made, potentially requiring consultation with the president.

The Warsh nomination followed a competitive vetting process led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Finalists included current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, BlackRock bond chief Rick Rieder, and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett.

Confirmation path is far from clear

Republican Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina reportedly said he would block all Fed nominations until the Justice Department concludes its probe into Powell, calling the investigation unfounded.

By contrast, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott praised Warsh’s “deep knowledge of markets and monetary policy.”

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Markets, for now, expect continuity rather than disruption. Traders are pricing in no more than two additional rate cuts this year, with the benchmark fed funds rate settling near 3%, a level policymakers view as neutral.

One unresolved question is Powell’s future. Though Fed chairs traditionally step down entirely when replaced, Powell still has two years left in his term as governor and could remain on the board, potentially serving as a check on Trump’s efforts to reshape the institution.

The Supreme Court is already weighing a related case involving another Fed governor, a decision that could ultimately redefine presidential authority over the central bank.

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Crypto World

Classic Chart Pattern Signals ETH Could Slip Below $2K

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Classic Chart Pattern Signals ETH Could Slip Below $2K

The price of Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), risks sliding below $2,000 in February as a classic bearish setup plays out.

Key takeaways:

  • ETH breakdown keeps $1,665 downside target in focus.

  • MVRV bands also point to price sliding toward $1,725 or lower before a potential bottom.

ETH/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

ETH risks declining 25% in February

As of Wednesday, ETH had entered the breakdown stage of its prevailing inverse-cup-and-handle (IC&H) pattern. This could extend a downtrend that has already erased about 60% from its August 2025 peak.

An IC&H pattern forms when price forms a rounded top and then drifts higher in a small recovery channel. It typically resolves when the price breaks below the neckline support, often falling by as much as the cup’s maximum height.

Ether broke below the inverse cup-and-handle neckline near $2,960 in January. It later rebounded to retest that level as resistance, a common post-breakdown move, only to resume its decline.

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Ether inverse cup-and-handle. Source: TradingView

ETH’s rebound also stalled below the 20-day (green) and 50-day (red) EMAs, which acted as overhead resistance.

These confluence indicators raised ETH’s odds of declining toward the IC&H breakdown target at around $1,665, down 25%, in February or by early March.

Historically, the inverse cup-and-handle hits its projected downside target with an 82% success rate, according to a study by Chartswatcher.

From a macro perspective, Ethereum’s downside risk is increasing as traders cut back on crypto bets, worried the market could slip into a broader 2026 downturn similar to past “four-year cycle” pullbacks.

Fears of an “AI bubble” popping are also forcing traders to avoid riskier bets such as crypto.

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Ethereum’s MVRV bands hint at $1,725 target

Ethereum’s technical downside target sat just below the lowest boundary of its MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands, currently at $1,725.

These bands are onchain price zones that show when ETH is trading below or above the average price at which traders last moved their coins.

Ethereum MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands. Source: Glassnode

Historically, ETH price plunged near or even below the lowest MVRV band before bottoming out.

That includes the April 2025 bounce, when the ETH price rose 90% a month after testing the lowest MVRV deviation band around $1,390. A similar rebound occurred in June 2018.

Related: ETH funding rate turns negative, but US macro conditions mute buy signal

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Therefore, Ether may decline toward $1,725 or below in February, which lines up with the IC&H downside target.