TLDR:

• Russian intelligence-linked hackers have compromised thousands of Signal accounts through targeted phishing campaigns globally.
  
• High-value targets include current and former U.S. government officials, military personnel, journalists, and political figures.
  
• Signal’s encryption remains unbroken — Russian hackers bypass it by stealing user credentials through social engineering.
  
• The FBI urges Americans to never share PINs or 2FA codes and to report suspicious activity to IC3.gov immediately.

The FBI has issued a stark warning about Russian hackers actively targeting Americans who use Signal and other commercial messaging apps.

Working alongside the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the bureau confirmed that thousands of individual accounts have already been compromised.

The campaign focuses on high-value targets, including current and former U.S. government officials, military personnel, political figures, and journalists. Authorities stress that Signal’s encryption is not at fault — end users are the primary vulnerability.

FBI Confirms Russian Hackers Are Actively Compromising Signal Accounts Across the Globe

Russian hackers linked to the country’s intelligence services have been running a coordinated phishing campaign against Signal users.

The operation involves sending messages disguised as official CMA support communications to unsuspecting targets. Once a user interacts with the message, the attacker gains full access to their account.

FBI Director Kash Patel publicly confirmed the threat, warning Americans through an official statement on X.

After gaining access, Russian hackers can read private messages and browse full contact lists. They can also send messages while posing as the account owner. This creates a chain of trust-based attacks that are difficult for recipients to detect.

The phishing messages are carefully tailored to each target, making them appear legitimate and urgent. Victims are typically asked to click a link, provide a verification code, or submit an account PIN. Any of these actions immediately hands control of the account to the attacker.

Authorities noted that the campaign continues to evolve. Russian hackers may expand their methods to include malware designed to infect victim devices directly. This development moves the threat beyond social engineering into more technically advanced territory.

Signal’s end-to-end encryption remains fully operational and has not been breached. However, the FBI warned that phishing renders encryption irrelevant when attackers access accounts directly. No level of encryption can protect a user who unknowingly hands over their credentials.

What Americans Can Do Right Now to Protect Their Signal Accounts

The FBI and CISA released joint guidance to help Americans defend against the ongoing Russian hacker campaign.

The first step is straightforward: stop all interaction the moment a message feels suspicious. Users should never share PINs or two-factor authentication codes for actions they did not personally initiate.

Any unsolicited message requesting account information should be treated as a potential phishing attempt. Even messages appearing to come from known contacts warrant caution if they contain unusual requests.

When uncertain, users should contact the sender through a completely separate channel before responding.

Group chats also need to be monitored carefully for unauthorized participants. Users should scan participant lists regularly for duplicate or unfamiliar accounts.

Any anomaly should be verified through secure communication outside of the app before further messages are shared.

The FBI reminded Americans that legitimate Signal support never sends verification links through direct messages.

Real support teams communicate exclusively through official email channels and never request codes or PINs inside the app. Any message claiming otherwise is almost certainly a phishing attempt by Russian hackers.

Americans who suspect they have been targeted should report the activity to the Internet Crime Complaint Center at IC3.gov or contact their nearest FBI field office.

Organizational IT and security teams should also be notified immediately. Fast reporting strengthens the FBI’s ability to track the campaign and protect additional accounts from being compromised.

Key Takeaways

• SanDisk (SNDK) shares tumbled 8.08% Friday with no apparent trigger for the decline
• Citi’s Asiya Merchant increased her price target to $875 from $750 while maintaining a Buy recommendation
• The target increase comes after Micron indicated NAND supply will trail demand indefinitely
• SNDK has gained more than 201% year-to-date and approximately 1,200% over the trailing twelve months
• Consensus analyst target of roughly $700 trails the stock’s current level near $734

Shares of SanDisk experienced a steep decline Friday, losing more than 8% of their value, despite receiving an upgraded price target from a prominent Wall Street analyst. The contrasting signals have investors debating whether this represents an attractive entry point or a red flag.

Sandisk Corporation, SNDK

Asiya Merchant from Citi increased her SanDisk (SNDK) price objective to $875, up from her previous $750 target, while reaffirming her Buy recommendation. Her analysis followed Micron’s recent quarterly results, where the company projected NAND demand would outpace available supply indefinitely. Merchant identified this supply-demand imbalance as a fundamental reason for maintaining optimism about SNDK.

Despite the Friday selloff, the stock’s performance has been exceptional. SNDK has climbed approximately 201% since the start of the year and skyrocketed over 1,200% during the past twelve months. The company’s market capitalization currently stands at approximately $114 billion.

The optimistic outlook for SanDisk is rooted in AI-powered demand growth for data storage solutions. Data centers have emerged as the primary purchasers of NAND flash memory, eclipsing traditional markets like smartphones and personal computers. SanDisk’s CEO David Goeckeler noted that data center demand projections were substantially revised upward twice in succession — initially from mid-20% growth to mid-40%, then escalating to mid-to-high 60% growth expectations for calendar 2026.

Goeckeler clarified that AI enterprises aren’t merely reselling storage capacity. Their usage continues expanding independent of NAND pricing trends. “Their business model is not dependent on the volume of NAND they buy,” he stated during a recent industry conference.

Constrained Supply Meets Surging Demand

SanDisk posted 64% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth in its data center segment last quarter, propelled by enterprise SSD certifications at leading hyperscalers translating into actual sales.

Regarding supply dynamics, NAND capital equipment investment has decreased even as market conditions grow tighter. Bringing new production capacity online requires multiple years. SanDisk allocated over $1 billion to secure fabrication facility space extending through 2030 to 2035 — a strategic wager on persistent demand strength.

Executives also highlighted a prospective growth catalyst: key-value cache technology for AI inference workloads. Preliminary projections suggest this application could generate incremental demand of 75 to 100 exabytes in 2027 alone.

Strategic Multi-Year Agreements Taking Shape

Instead of transacting on a quarterly basis, SanDisk is transitioning toward extended contracts with data center clients. These agreements, spanning one to five years, aim to safeguard profit margins throughout market cycles and secure expanding exabyte commitments. The company has finalized one such arrangement and reports additional deals are under negotiation.

Analysts following SNDK project revenue climbing from $7.36 billion in fiscal 2025 to $26.78 billion by fiscal 2027. Earnings per share are anticipated to surge from $2.99 to $87.40 during that timeframe.

Among 21 analysts monitoring SNDK, 14 assign it a Strong Buy rating, one recommends Moderate Buy, and six advise Hold. The mean price target stands at $700.94 — beneath the current trading level around $734. This divergence between the consensus estimate and actual price adds complexity to interpreting Friday’s pullback for potential buyers.

Citi’s $875 projection represents the most aggressive bullish target on Wall Street and substantially exceeds the analyst consensus.

TLDR:

• Gold dropped 10.5% to $4,490, marking its worst weekly performance since the Federal Reserve’s 1982 rate hike era.
• A surging US dollar made gold costlier for international buyers, adding pressure on an already declining price trend.
• CME Group raised margin requirements, forcing leveraged traders to liquidate positions and accelerating the weekly decline.
• After a similar 1982 crash, gold recovered 50% within 12 months, drawing renewed attention from long-term market investors.

Gold has posted its worst weekly performance in 43 years, losing 10.5% to settle at $4,490. The steep decline has caught markets off guard, particularly given the current geopolitical climate.

War, rising inflation, and oil market disruptions are all present in the background. These are conditions that have historically pushed the metal’s price higher, not lower.

The drop against a bullish backdrop has made this one of the most closely watched commodity moves in years.

A Crash With No Historical Parallel

Gold’s biggest crashes in modern history all came with clear bearish catalysts. In 1982, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 20% to fight inflation. That policy move directly weakened the metal’s appeal as a reliable store of value during uncertainty.

In 2013, the Fed signaled it would begin tapering its bond-buying program. Markets read that as a shift toward tighter policy, which weighed heavily on prices. The 2022 decline followed a nearly identical script, as aggressive rate hikes cooled demand for the commodity.

March 2026 breaks from that pattern entirely. Crypto and commodity analyst Bull Theory noted on social media that war is ongoing and inflation is rising.

Oil refineries are burning, and three US warships have been deployed to the region. Each of those factors would normally drive investors toward the safe-haven metal.

Yet the commodity fell sharply despite all of it. That disconnect between fundamentals and price action is what makes this week historically unusual. Analysts are calling it one of the most confusing price moves in decades.

Three Market Forces Driving the Drop

Bull Theory identified three forces hitting gold at the same time. The US dollar has surged on safe-haven demand, making the metal more costly for buyers outside the United States. When the dollar rises sharply, prices often come under pressure in non-dollar markets.

At the same time, commodity funds have been selling to cover losses from oil margin calls. When oil trades poorly, fund managers liquidate positions to raise cash quickly. That wave of coordinated forced selling can move prices sharply in a short time.

The CME Group also raised margin requirements during the week. That move forced leveraged traders to sell their positions to meet the new thresholds. Combined with the dollar rally and margin call selling, the three forces created a compounding effect on price.

However, history offers some perspective on what may follow. After the 1982 crash, the metal recovered strongly, gaining 50% over the next 12 months.

Past performance does not guarantee future results, but this historical precedent has drawn attention from long-term investors. Market watchers continue to track whether similar patterns emerge in the months ahead.

Key Takeaways

• CEG shares closed at $281.99, marking a 10.9% decline that significantly outpaced the S&P 500’s 1.51% retreat
• Major technology companies are reportedly scaling back commitments to large-scale power agreements, undermining key growth assumptions
• Federal regulators proposed a rate ceiling for the PJM mid-Atlantic grid that could restrict CEG’s pricing power
• An industrial chemical incident at a Constellation facility resulted in employee hospitalizations, raising operational questions
• Wall Street forecasts remain intact with Q1 EPS projected at $2.70, representing 26% annual growth, and full-year sales estimated at $38.71 billion

Shares of Constellation Energy (CEG) took a beating on Thursday, plummeting 10.9% to finish at $281.99. The decline was particularly brutal given that broader equity indexes faced only modest weakness.

Constellation Energy Corporation, CEG

The stock faced simultaneous headwinds from three distinct angles — each serious enough to move shares on its own.

The most significant development centered on emerging reports that major hyperscale technology firms are reconsidering their long-term power procurement strategies. These agreements had formed a critical pillar of CEG’s investment thesis, particularly around powering next-generation artificial intelligence infrastructure.

With that narrative showing cracks, market participants began reassessing whether the stock’s valuation premium remained justified.

Regulatory developments compounded the damage. News surfaced of a proposed federal cap on electricity rates within the PJM Interconnection, a regional transmission grid spanning the mid-Atlantic where Constellation maintains substantial nuclear generation capacity. Such restrictions would effectively limit the company’s ability to capture higher margins during peak demand periods.

The market’s reaction was swift and unforgiving.

Facility Incident Compounds Negative Sentiment

Operational concerns added another layer of uncertainty. A chemical release at one of the company’s power generation sites resulted in multiple workers requiring medical treatment, introducing safety and operational risk questions into the mix.

While the incident’s scope wasn’t large-scale, its timing couldn’t have been worse. When investor confidence in a growth story is already fragile, even secondary concerns can accelerate selling pressure.

The convergence of demand skepticism, regulatory constraints, and operational mishaps created a perfect storm for shareholders.

Wall Street Forecasts Remain Unchanged

Interestingly, sell-side expectations for the company’s financial performance haven’t shifted materially despite the stock’s tumble. Analysts continue to anticipate first-quarter earnings per share of $2.70, marking a 26% improvement compared to the prior-year period.

For the full fiscal year, consensus estimates project earnings of $11.63 per share on revenue reaching $38.71 billion — which would represent a substantial 51.6% top-line expansion if realized.

The Zacks consensus earnings estimate has actually increased 2.41% during the past 30 days, while CEG maintains a Zacks Rank of #3, indicating a Hold rating.

The company’s forward price-to-earnings multiple stands at 27.22 — notably higher than the industry benchmark of 18.86 — suggesting the market had been pricing in robust growth prospects before this week’s turbulence.

Its PEG ratio of 1.77 sits below the Alternative Energy sector’s 2.0 average, offering some relative value support.

It bears mentioning that prior to Thursday’s collapse, CEG had gained 8.51% over the preceding month — indicating the stock had been building momentum before this abrupt reversal.

Year-to-date performance now registers at -10.3%, illustrating how dramatically sentiment has shifted in early 2026.

Market participants will be scrutinizing the company’s next earnings report for management commentary on the status of technology sector power agreements and any additional details regarding the facility incident.

Quick Overview

• CleanSpark delivered fiscal 2025 revenue expansion exceeding 100% and maintains a Moderate Buy rating from 15 Wall Street analysts
• MARA Holdings receives a Hold rating but brings significant scale plus a Bitcoin balance sheet approach that may prove valuable if crypto remains elevated
• Riot Platforms saw expanding revenue momentum through 2025 while analysts monitor its energy infrastructure and data center operations
• Bitdeer shows the steepest potential gains with analyst targets suggesting 200%+ upside, contingent on successful SEALMINER chip deployment
• Galaxy Digital operates across trading desks, fund management, advisory services, and mining, earning a Moderate Buy from 15 analysts

With Bitcoin showing renewed vigor in 2026, Wall Street has turned its focus back to a select group of cryptocurrency-exposed equities. Five companies have emerged as particularly interesting: CleanSpark, MARA Holdings, Riot Platforms, Bitdeer Technologies, and Galaxy Digital. This cohort represents the full spectrum of Bitcoin mining operations, energy management, proprietary hardware development, and comprehensive digital asset financial services.

CleanSpark

CleanSpark stands out as having among the most compelling operational narratives in the space currently.

CleanSpark, Inc., CLSK

The firm delivered fiscal 2025 top-line expansion exceeding 100%. Growth at that magnitude commands investor attention.

According to MarketBeat tracking, the stock holds a Moderate Buy rating based on 15 analyst opinions — comprising 13 buy recommendations, 1 hold, and 1 sell. The thesis centers on consistent operational delivery paired with a valuation multiple that appears attractive when benchmarked against comparable crypto infrastructure businesses.

MARA Holdings

MARA Holdings generates more debate among the analyst community, which is precisely why certain investors identify opportunity.

Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc., MARA

While the company delivered robust annual revenue expansion, it currently holds a Hold rating on MarketBeat based on 7 buy ratings, 3 holds, and 2 sells. The more measured outlook probably stems from the stock’s track record of sharp price swings.

What distinguishes MARA from traditional mining operations is its corporate Bitcoin accumulation approach. Should cryptocurrency valuations hold steady and the company enhance operational margins, analyst sentiment could turn more favorable.

Riot Platforms

Riot Platforms experienced notably stronger revenue momentum throughout 2025. MarketBeat shows a Moderate Buy rating across 18 analysts — broken down as 16 buys, 1 hold, and 1 sell.

Riot Platforms, Inc., RIOT

Riot’s investment case extends beyond Bitcoin production. Market participants are increasingly focused on its power generation capabilities and expanding high-performance computing facilities.

This strategic diversification may enable the shares to command a premium valuation as investors begin viewing it through an infrastructure lens rather than solely as a cryptocurrency miner.

Bitdeer Technologies

Bitdeer represents the most speculative opportunity within this cohort.

MarketBeat data indicates an average Wall Street price objective of $26.60, suggesting potential appreciation exceeding 200% from current trading levels. Multiple firms maintain constructive ratings despite moderating their price targets recently.

The optimistic scenario hinges on accelerating revenue, expansion of proprietary mining operations, and successful commercialization of its SEALMINER chip technology. Execution challenges are substantial, yet so are the potential returns if management delivers on its roadmap.

Galaxy Digital

Galaxy Digital operates the most diversified business model among these five companies.

Instead of concentrating exclusively on mining or acting as a proxy for exchange activity, Galaxy maintains operations spanning proprietary trading, venture capital, wealth management, corporate advisory, and Bitcoin production. MarketBeat reflects a Moderate Buy consensus including 1 strong buy, 11 buys, 2 holds, and 1 sell. Average analyst price targets cluster between $42.54 and $42.77.

Galaxy’s market capitalization appears modest relative to the breadth of its revenue streams, especially considering its involvement in high-performance computing expansion via its Helios infrastructure project.

Final Thoughts

These five enterprises represent distinct risk-return profiles. CleanSpark and Riot present more balanced propositions. MARA delivers scale but faces ongoing valuation questions. Bitdeer offers the steepest potential appreciation alongside the greatest execution uncertainty. Galaxy provides the broadest exposure across crypto sector verticals.

Key near-term factors influencing this group include Bitcoin price stability, energy cost trajectories, mining hardware efficiency improvements, and advancement of their respective data center initiatives. Among company-specific developments, Galaxy’s Helios buildout and Bitdeer’s SEALMINER deployment timeline represent the most closely monitored milestones as 2026 progresses.

Grayscale has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch the Grayscale HYPE ETF, a proposed spot exchange-traded fund tied to Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE. 

If approved, the fund would trade on Nasdaq under the ticker GHYP and would give investors listed market access to the token without holding it directly.

Meanwhile, the filing adds Grayscale to a growing list of firms seeking investment products linked to Hyperliquid, a blockchain focused on decentralized perpetual futures trading. The move also comes as crypto ETF issuers continue to expand beyond Bitcoin and Ether into newer digital assets.

Grayscale’s S-1 filing said the proposed fund would track the price of HYPE. The company named Coinbase Custody as custodian and said it would use CoinDesk benchmark pricing data for valuation. The filing did not disclose a management fee.

The application places Grayscale alongside other issuers already pursuing similar products. Bitwise and 21Shares filed for Hyperliquid-linked funds earlier, showing that asset managers are starting to test investor demand for exchange-traded products tied to newer crypto tokens.

Filing includes possible future staking option

The filing said staking is not allowed for the fund at launch. It also noted a “Staking Condition” that could be satisfied later, which may allow the product to add staking in the future.

That part of the filing follows a broader trend in crypto ETFs. Fund issuers have shown interest in adding staking rewards, but U.S. regulators have moved more slowly on that issue than on basic spot fund approvals. Grayscale said it may consider staking later if conditions permit.

Moreover, Hyperliquid has become one of the best-known platforms in decentralized perpetual futures trading. Market data cited in the report said the network remains the largest onchain venue for perps, even as new competitors entered the market in 2025.

Weekly trading volume on Hyperliquid has ranged from about $40 billion to $100 billion this year, according to DeFiLlama data cited in the report. While volumes have cooled from earlier peaks, the platform remains ahead of rivals such as Aster, Lighter, and edgeX.

Broader ETF push expands beyond major tokens

The Grayscale filing comes during a period of wider crypto ETF activity in the United States. Under SEC Chair Paul Atkins, the agency has approved a broader set of crypto-related funds, though rules around staking remain less clear.

Hyperliquid is still not available to U.S. users on its core platform, but its profile has grown as more firms watch decentralized trading infrastructure. 

A tentative agreement on stablecoin yield may help restart progress on the CLARITY Act in Washington. Reports said White House officials and US lawmakers are working on terms that could address one of the main disputes that slowed the crypto market structure bill earlier this year.

The talks center on whether stablecoin issuers should be allowed to offer yield to holders. That issue has divided crypto firms and banks, with both sides watching closely as lawmakers try to move the bill forward.

A Politico report said Senator Thom Tillis and Senator Angela Alsobrooks reached an “agreement in principle” on stablecoin yield. Both senators sit on the Senate Banking Committee, which has played a central role in digital asset policy talks.

Alsobrooks said the deal would help “protect innovation” while also limiting the risk of deposit flight from the banking system. She added that the agreement would block stablecoin yield on “passive balances,” pointing to a narrower path for how yield could work under future rules.

CLARITY Act remains stalled over key questions

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 had been expected to move ahead after the GENIUS stablecoin framework became law. That changed when debate grew around whether stablecoin issuers could share yield directly with token holders.

Industry groups and lawmakers have treated that issue as a central point in the bill. Senator Tillis said the crypto industry still needs to review the emerging agreement before anything is finalized, which means the text may still change before formal action.

Speaking at the DC Blockchain Summit, Senator Cynthia Lummis said, “We are so close” to passing a broader crypto framework. A spokesperson for Lummis also said a deal could come together within days as work continues on ethics language tied to the bill.

Those comments suggest lawmakers are still trying to package stablecoin policy and market structure rules into a wider crypto framework. The timing remains uncertain, but the latest talks show that negotiations are active again after the January slowdown.

Banks and crypto firms remain split

Banks have opposed yield-bearing stablecoins, saying they could pull deposits away from traditional accounts. That concern has been one of the strongest arguments against allowing broad yield features in stablecoin products.

The White House has also heard the opposite case. Patrick Witt, executive director of the White House Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, said those concerns are overstated and argued that regulated yield-bearing stablecoins could bring new capital into the US banking system.

Key Takeaways

• United Airlines shares declined 4.46% Friday following CEO Scott Kirby’s announcement of a 5% reduction in planned flights.
• Since late February, jet fuel prices have surged nearly 100% amid the Iran conflict.
• The carrier is scenario-planning for crude oil reaching $175 per barrel, with prices potentially remaining above $100 until late 2027.
• At present fuel price levels, United faces an additional $11 billion in annual fuel expenses.
• Despite capacity cuts, United will maintain its aircraft delivery schedule and avoid employee furloughs.

United Airlines (UAL) saw its shares fall 4.46% Friday after CEO Scott Kirby informed employees the airline would reduce its flight schedule by approximately 5%. The decision follows a dramatic spike in jet fuel costs, which have almost doubled since late February due to escalating conflict in Iran.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc., UAL

In an internal memo published on the company’s official website, Kirby detailed the challenging outlook ahead. The airline is preparing contingency plans for crude oil prices potentially reaching $175 per barrel, with expectations that prices could remain above $100 through 2027’s end.

If these projections materialize, the additional fuel expenditure would approach $11 billion annually — exceeding twice the profit United generated during what Kirby described as the company’s most successful year on record.

The airline has been systematically eliminating underperforming routes. This includes certain midweek departures, Saturday services, and red-eye flights experiencing softer passenger demand.

According to the revised operational plan, United will eliminate approximately three percentage points of lower-demand flying during the second and third quarters. Additionally, the carrier will reduce roughly one percentage point of capacity from its Chicago O’Hare hub.

Routes to Tel Aviv and Dubai remain suspended indefinitely. Combined, these adjustments represent approximately five percentage points of the airline’s annual capacity projections.

Kirby indicated that United intends to resume full scheduling this autumn — provided fuel costs stabilize rather than continue climbing.

Rising Ticket Prices Provide Some Relief

Strong travel demand is offering partial relief from mounting costs. Major U.S. carriers have successfully implemented two consecutive fare increases of approximately $10 per direction. Kirby noted that bookings completed over the past week showed fare increases of 15% to 20%.

According to Melius Research analysts, robust booking trends could support an additional 5% to 7% fare adjustment. United revealed that the initial 10 weeks of 2026 represented the strongest booking period in company history.

Competitor Delta Air Lines has similarly signaled willingness to reduce capacity if elevated prices persist, following an upward revision to its first-quarter revenue guidance this week.

U.S. carriers face particular vulnerability compared to certain European and Asian competitors — the majority don’t employ fuel hedging strategies, leaving them significantly exposed to volatile price fluctuations.

Growth Plans Remain Intact

Notwithstanding immediate capacity reductions, Kirby assured employees that United’s broader expansion strategy remains unchanged.

The airline will proceed with accepting delivery of approximately 120 new aircraft throughout this year, including 20 Boeing 787 wide-body jets. An additional 130 aircraft are scheduled for delivery by April 2028.

Kirby emphasized that United will avoid employee furloughs and maintain planned investments — marking a departure from strategies employed during previous industry downturns.

In after-hours trading Friday, UAL stock recovered slightly, gaining 1.49% to reach $91.29, clawing back some of the session’s losses.

Key Highlights

• A temporary restraining order from Nevada’s First Judicial District Court was issued against Kalshi on Friday, lasting 14 days
• Kalshi must cease offering sports, entertainment, and election-related contracts within Nevada
• Nevada’s Gaming Control Board initially ordered Kalshi to discontinue sports contracts in 2025
• A jurisdictional battle is underway between the CFTC and state authorities over prediction market oversight
• Kalshi faces additional charges in Arizona for operating without a gambling license

A Nevada court has mandated that prediction market operator Kalshi suspend its event contract offerings within the state for a minimum of two weeks. On Friday, March 20, the First Judicial District Court of Nevada handed down this temporary restraining order.

The judicial order encompasses all sports-related, entertainment, and election wagering contracts available through the platform. A subsequent court hearing has been calendared for April 3.

This legal conflict has been ongoing. Nevada’s Gaming Control Board initially sent a cease-and-desist directive to Kalshi in 2025, demanding the platform discontinue all sports-related event contracts operating within state boundaries.

Kalshi contested this action, maintaining that its federal regulatory oversight should take precedence over state-level jurisdiction. The platform attempted to transfer the proceedings to federal court.

This strategy was unsuccessful. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit rejected Kalshi’s request for a stay on Thursday and remanded the matter to Nevada’s state court system.

The Nevada judge determined that the gaming board’s regulatory functions are compromised while Kalshi continues operations without obtaining a state license. The ruling stated that an “unlicensed participant beyond the Board’s control” interferes with the board’s statutory responsibilities.

Kalshi has not issued a statement regarding the Nevada decision.

Federal Regulator Asserts Authority

On the federal front, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Michael Selig has been actively challenging state enforcement actions. He submitted a legal brief contending that the CFTC, rather than individual states, possesses proper regulatory authority over prediction market platforms.

Selig has reiterated this position during multiple public appearances and has committed that his agency will maintain its jurisdictional claims. The CFTC has additionally issued regulatory guidance informing exchanges that list event contracts that compliance with the Commodity Exchange Act is mandatory.

Major League Baseball has aligned with the federal regulatory framework, executing a memorandum of understanding with the CFTC regarding prediction market supervision. MLB separately announced a collaborative arrangement with Polymarket this week.

Escalating State Actions

Nevada represents just one jurisdiction taking action against Kalshi. Earlier in the week, Arizona’s attorney general filed charges against the company for conducting an unlicensed gambling operation and facilitating illegal election betting.

Tennessee has similarly initiated legal proceedings against prediction market platforms concerning sports-related contracts.

Federal legislators have also expressed concerns. In January, Democratic Representative Ritchie Torres proposed legislation to restrict how elected officials engage with prediction markets, prompted by wagers placed on the potential capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Last week, Democratic lawmakers unveiled the “Death Bets Act,” proposing a prohibition on prediction market contracts related to death, armed conflict, or political assassination.

The Nevada court acknowledged that federal preemption questions in this regulatory space are “nuanced and rapidly evolving.”

The upcoming hearing in the Nevada proceedings is scheduled for April 3, 2026.

Key Takeaways

• Bank of America analysts suggest Federal Reserve could increase interest rates if ongoing Iran conflict pushes crude oil beyond the $80 threshold
• Rate hike probability has surged to 25% by year-end, jumping from virtually zero just five days earlier
• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated rate reductions remain off the table without demonstrable inflation improvements
• Bitcoin faces significant headwinds, battling to maintain the $70,000 support level amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty
• Typically dovish Fed Governor Chris Waller shifted his stance, voting to maintain current rates citing escalating inflation concerns

The Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory has undergone a dramatic reversal. Market expectations have flipped from anticipating rate reductions just days ago to seriously considering the prospect of monetary tightening for the first time in years.

This remarkable transformation stems from escalating U.S.-Iran tensions that erupted on February 28, driving crude oil prices upward and reigniting inflation anxieties. Bank of America’s analysis identifies three critical catalysts that could trigger a Fed rate increase: continued labor market resilience, Jerome Powell’s extended tenure as Federal Reserve chair beyond current expectations, and persistent oil price elevation driven by Middle East conflict.

According to BofA strategists, the likelihood of tightening intensifies significantly should oil prices sustain levels above $80 per barrel. Recent weeks have seen crude trading consistently near this critical threshold.

Powell’s Recent Commentary

During this week’s FOMC press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that rate reductions will not materialize without concrete evidence of inflation moderation. While he avoided explicitly forecasting a rate increase, Powell acknowledged such action doesn’t represent the consensus baseline among policymakers.

Powell further disclosed he may remain in his current position until his anticipated successor, Kevin Warsh, completes the Senate confirmation process. This timeline remains uncertain. Should Powell continue leading the Fed through the June FOMC meeting while Iran-related oil price pressures persist, the case for tightening could strengthen considerably.

Market pricing reflected zero expectation of rate increases just five days ago. Current CME FedWatch interest rate futures now indicate approximately 25% probability of a hike materializing by December. This represents an extraordinary sentiment shift over an exceptionally brief period.

Polymarket prediction markets show 35% odds that the Federal Reserve implements zero rate cuts throughout 2024. The probability of an outright rate hike has climbed to 19%, nearly doubling from the 8% level recorded when the conflict initially erupted.

Cryptocurrency Market Response

Bitcoin is experiencing considerable strain. The leading cryptocurrency has encountered difficulty maintaining the $70,000 level as inflation concerns mount and rate cut expectations evaporate. The aggregate cryptocurrency market capitalization declined from an intraday peak of $2.4 trillion to $2.37 trillion within a single trading session.

Crypto assets experienced a temporary relief bounce before resuming their downward trajectory alongside equity markets. Two-year Treasury yields surged to 3.89%, marking the widest spread above the Fed’s policy rate in three years. This development signals bond market participants are incorporating expectations of tighter monetary conditions ahead.

Polymarket data indicates the probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire has declined to 42%, suggesting traders anticipate continued conflict.

Fed Governor Chris Waller, who previously advocated for rate cuts following a disappointing February employment report, reversed his position this week. He cited elevated inflation risks connected to the Iran situation as the decisive factor in his vote to maintain current rates. Waller emphasized the prudence of adopting a wait-and-see approach before committing to any policy easing measures.