Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin is entering the Asian trading day with on-chain data flashing full bear-market signals, as prices hover in the mid-$70,000s and global equity markets continue to search for direction.

CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report frames the weakness as structural rather than cyclical, with its Bull Score Index sitting at zero while bitcoin trades far below its October peak. The report argues the market is no longer digesting gains but operating with a thinner buyer base and tightening liquidity.

Glassnode data reinforces that picture, pointing to weak spot volumes and a demand vacuum where selling pressure is not being met with sustained absorption. In effect, the issue is less panic than participation.

Institutional flows underline the shift. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, which were net accumulators at this time last year, have flipped into net sellers, creating a year over year demand gap measured in tens of thousands of bitcoin.

At the same time, the Coinbase premium has remained negative since October, signaling that U.S. investors are not meaningfully stepping in despite lower prices. Historically, sustained bull phases have coincided with strong U.S. spot demand. That engine is currently idling.

Liquidity conditions are also tightening beneath the surface. Stablecoin expansion, which typically fuels risk appetite and trading activity, has stalled, with USDT market cap growth turning negative for the first time since 2023.

Longer-term apparent demand growth has likewise collapsed from last year’s highs, suggesting this is not merely leverage being flushed but participation itself fading. Technically, bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average, with on-chain valuation bands clustering major support in the $70,000 to $60,000 corridor.

Overlaying this is a macro backdrop where bitcoin is increasingly behaving like high-beta software rather than digital gold. Prediction markets show traders still leaning heavily toward no change at the Federal Reserve’s April meeting, with only modest expectations for a June rate cut. That hesitancy limits the prospect of near term liquidity relief.

The policy narrative is further complicated by politics. President Donald Trump recently spoke to the press about his Fed nominee Kevin Warsh and said during an interview with NBC News a Fed chair who wanted to raise rates “would not have gotten the job,” a remark that tempers earlier optimism about central bank independence.

For Asia, the result is a market defined less by shock than by absence, where bounces remain possible, but conviction remains thin.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin drifted lower into the mid $70,000s after briefly testing support, with rebounds fading quickly as spot demand remained thin and tech stocks stayed under pressure.

ETH: Ether hovered just above the low $2,000s, struggling to build momentum as broader risk sentiment softened and flows remained muted across major exchanges.

Gold: Gold rebounded toward the $5,000 to $5,100 range, extending a volatile recovery driven by safe-haven buying after U.S.–Iran tensions flared and softer private payroll data offset mixed economic signals while traders reassessed the Fed outlook under Trump’s new chair pick.

Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged lower by roughly 0.3% as chip and tech heavyweights tracked Wall Street’s sell-off, though broader Japanese equities remained relatively resilient compared with regional peers.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

• Binance denies issuing legal threats over insolvency allegations (The Block)
• Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani steps down after nearly a decade to pursue other areas of tech (CoinDesk)

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission moved to reverse a Biden-era rule proposal that would have barred sports, politics and war-related prediction markets, signaling a recalibration under the agency’s current leadership. CFTC Chair Mike Selig announced on Wednesday that the agency is withdrawing the 2024 notice of proposed rulemaking that sought to ban event contracts tied to public-interest events, and that the commission does not plan to issue final rules on that proposal. Instead, the CFTC intends to pursue a new rulemaking anchored in a rational interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act, aiming to balance investor protections with responsible innovation in derivatives markets. This shift comes as prediction-market platforms—widely used for forecasting events—navigate a patchwork of state enforcement actions and ongoing regulatory debates over how they should be treated within the U.S. financial framework. The move also echoes broader regulatory conversations about how digital-asset markets and related products should be supervised.

Key takeaways

• The CFTC formally withdrew the 2024 notice of proposed rulemaking that would have banned sports, political and other event contracts, labeling them as contrary to the public interest.
• Chair Mike Selig stated the agency will pursue a new rulemaking grounded in the Commodity Exchange Act to foster responsible innovation in derivatives markets aligned with congressional intent.
• The withdrawal signals a pivot away from a broader ban towards a more measured, standards-based approach to event contracts and related platforms.
• Prediction-market operators like Polymarket and Kalshi have faced state-level enforcement actions, with platforms arguing they are regulated by the CFTC and not unlicensed gambling.
• The agency also pulled a September staff letter that warned regulated entities to prepare for litigation and to maintain robust risk management in facilitating sports-related event contracts.

Sentiment: Neutral

Market context: The development arrives amid intensifying regulatory scrutiny of crypto-related products and event-driven contracts, while regulators explore a coordinated approach to oversight across asset classes. The shift follows a broader debate about how prediction markets fit within the U.S. securities and commodities frameworks and reflects ongoing conversations about how innovation can coexist with investor protection in a evolving market landscape.

Why it matters

The decision to withdraw the proposed prohibition on event contracts signals a more deliberate, regulator-led path forward for a sector that earned rapid traction in the crypto and fintech space. By signaling a move toward a rulemaking grounded in the Commodity Exchange Act, the commission acknowledges the complexity of product design, consumer risk, and market dynamics in prediction markets. For developers and operators, this could translate into a clearer, more predictable regulatory runway—albeit one that may still constrain certain product features or market access in the future.

Prediction-market platforms have been at the center of a legal and political struggle. Polymarket and Kalshi pressed ahead with contracts tied to a wide range of events, including sports outcomes, election results, and other timely topics. States such as Nevada have pursued enforcement actions, arguing that such contracts amount to unlicensed gambling, while platforms contend they are regulated under the CFTC. The tension highlights a broader policy question: should prediction markets be treated primarily as financial derivatives subject to federal oversight, or as a separate class of information markets with distinct rules? The withdrawal of the rulemaking proposal pushes regulators to develop a more nuanced framework that could determine whether such markets persist, mature, or evolve in structure and scope.

Moreover, the withdrawal of the September staff letter—issued amid a period of uncertainty and ahead of a potential government slowdown—suggests a period of recalibration in how the CFTC communicates expectations to market participants. The letter warned that firms should prepare for litigation and emphasize contingency planning, disclosures, and risk-management policies. While the agency framed the advisory as a reminder of litigation considerations, Selig noted it had unintentionally created confusion. The unfurling of a dedicated event-contract rulemaking implies a more deliberate approach to both enforcement and guidance as the market evolves.

The agency’s action aligns with broader regulatory shifts described in related reporting about coordination among U.S. market regulators on crypto oversight and a continuing reassessment of how innovation fits within established statutory authority. As the crypto ecosystem expands to include more complex financial instruments and cross-border activity, policymakers are weighing how to maintain investor protections without stifling beneficial market developments. The CFTC’s pivot—away from an outright ban toward a structured rulemaking—reflects a central tension in the regulatory landscape: balancing the allure of predictive- and event-based markets with the need for clarity, compliance, and consumer safeguards.

For stakeholders, the immediate implication is a clearer signal that the federal framework may offer a path for legitimate, regulated event markets to operate under defined standards. That does not guarantee-permanent permission for every product, but it increases the likelihood of formal guidance and a transparent process for evaluating individual contracts, platforms, and business models. The reshaped trajectory could influence funding, market participation, and strategic development for firms that have built significant user bases around event-focused trading, including those exploring tokenized and cross-chain versions of prediction markets.

In the broader context, the withdrawal reinforces the notion that the regulatory environment remains dynamic. While some participants seek quicker, broader access to innovative products, the evolving stance of U.S. regulators underscores the importance of compliance-readiness, robust risk controls, and an ability to adapt to changing rules. As the CFTC moves toward a new framework, market participants will be watching for forthcoming rulemaking notices, public-comment windows, and how state and federal authorities coordinate their enforcement and supervisory actions in this rapidly changing space.

What to watch next

• A formal rulemaking notice on event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act, outlining permissible structures and registration requirements.
• Public-comment period and industry feedback shaping the final framework for prediction markets.
• Regulatory updates or clarifications regarding specific platforms (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi) and their compliance posture with federal law.
• Any new guidance or reporting requirements from the CFTC related to sports and political event contracts.

Sources & verification

• CFTC press release: Withdrawal of 2024 notice of proposed rulemaking (9179-26).
• Chair Mike Selig’s public remarks and official communications (X post).
• Related reporting on the CFTC chair transition and policy discussions.
• State actions and platform responses regarding sports event contracts (e.g., Nevada actions; Coinbase/Crypto.com references in coverage).

Regulatory recalibration reshapes prediction markets

The renewal of this policy path begins with a recognition that the original 2024 proposal—seen by supporters as a bold move to curb what some labeled speculative gambling—did not reflect a holistic view of how event-driven contracts function within modern markets. By withdrawing the proposal, the commission opens space for a more measured, evidence-based approach to rulemaking. The new process will be anchored in the Commodity Exchange Act and guided by congressional intent to enable responsible innovation in derivatives markets, while preserving critical investor protections.

As stated in the agency’s communications, the commission intends to frame future rules through a rational interpretation of the existing statute, rather than relying on broad prohibitions. That nuance matters: it signals a potential for future, carefully scoped products that could be offered under a clear regulatory license regime, with defined risk disclosures, dispute-resolution mechanisms, and capital requirements. For participants who rely on prediction markets for price discovery, hedging, or information gathering, clearer federal guidance could improve certainty and reduce litigation risk, even as particular contract designs and market access criteria are vetted by regulators.

The ongoing dialogue between federal regulators, state authorities, and market participants underscores a broader theme in the cryptocurrency and derivatives space: innovation is not inherently at odds with oversight, but it requires a governance framework that is adaptive, transparent, and aligned with statutory authority. The CFTC’s decision to pivot away from an outright ban toward a formal rulemaking process reflects this balance-seeking impulse. It also positions the agency to address a spectrum of market models—from traditional exchange-based contracts to novel, tokenized formats—within a single, coherent regulatory architecture.

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As volatility grows in 2026, XRP and BTC holders turn to IO DeFi’s affiliate program for structured, stable income.

Amidst the high volatility of the crypto market, the profit model relying solely on price increases is facing increasing uncertainty. For XRP and BTC holders, how to generate continuous returns on existing assets without frequent trading or blindly adding to positions has become a crucial issue in 2026.

In this context, the Affiliate Program launched by IO DeFi has gradually come into the market’s view. This program does not focus on short-term market predictions, but rather uses clear rules and long-term incentive mechanisms to help users build a relatively stable and sustainable income path, unaffected by market fluctuations. This shift from simply holding crypto to structured income generation is offering new possibilities for XRP and BTC users.

How to achieve long-term returns with zero investment through the IO DeFi affiliate program

In a market environment of increasing uncertainty, some XRP and BTC holders are starting to focus on a different approach than additional investment or frequent trading: accumulating long-term returns through a rules-based mechanism without investing additional funds. The IO DeFi Affiliate Program is designed based on this idea.

Step 1: Create an account and start earnings with zero investment

Visit the IO DeFi website.

Users can start participating simply by registering with their email address.

New users will receive a $15 platform reward upon registration.

This reward requires no additional investment and can be used to experience the platform’s yield mechanism, providing a foundation for future participation.

Step 2: Establish a long-term revenue source using an exclusive invitation link

After account creation, the system will generate a unique invitation link for each user. By sharing this link to invite friends to join, users can participate in the affiliate revenue sharing mechanism.

The IO DeFi Alliance plans to use a clear two-tier reward structure:

Direct Referral Reward: 3%

When a friend who is invited purchases a contract, the one who invited them will receive a 3% reward based on the contract amount.

Indirect Referral Reward: 2%

If the invited friend then invites other users to participate, the first person will still receive a 2% reward.

Example 1: Direct Referral (3% Reward)

Friend A is invited to join IO DeFi.

For every $1,000 contract A purchases

→ the one who invited them immediately receives a $30 reward.

For every $10,000 contract A purchases

→ The first person immediately receives a $300 reward.

Key Points:

A receives a reward for every purchase A makes;

Receive the reward for every purchase made, with no limit on the number of times A makes a purchase.

Example 2: Indirect Referral (2% Reward)

Fiend A then invited another friend B to join IO DeFi.

B: For every $1,000 contract purchased,

The one who invited friend A will receive a $20 bonus.

B: For every $10,000 contract purchased,

They receive a $200 bonus.

Same rule:

B: Receive a bonus for every purchase, and the bonus accumulates.

Example 3: The Cumulative Effect of Multiple Purchases

A: Purchases 10 $1,000 contracts this month

→ Receive: 30 × 10 = $300

B: Purchases 5 $10,000 contracts this month

→ Receive: 200 × 5 = $1,000

These two users alone earned $1,300 in bonuses in one month.

Example 4: Why Teams Earn Faster Than Individuals

Participation alone → Earnings come from a single source.

Inviting 10 people → 10 earning lines operate simultaneously.

These 10 people then invite even more people → Earnings continue to amplify.

Earning money alone relies on time,

Earning money as a group relies on structure.

In addition to earning rewards through the affiliate program, IO DeFi offers another way to generate income: purchasing yield contracts.

1. Users can choose yield contracts with different periods and amounts, ranging from $100 to $100,000, according to their needs.

2. After selecting a contract, pay the corresponding contract fee to activate it.

3. Once activated, the contract generates stable daily returns during its term, which are automatically credited to the user’s account balance.

4. The account balance can be withdrawn at any time or used to purchase higher-value contracts for even greater returns.

The core of the IO DeFi affiliate program is:

Every purchase earns rewards.

The more someone invites people and the larger their team, the faster their returns grow, with no upper limit.

All affiliate program rewards are automatically settled and credited to an account balance in real time:

Rewards arrive automatically, requiring no manual intervention.

Users can choose to withdraw at any time.

Or, they can continue to use their earnings for platform participation, further amplifying their returns.

This mechanism allows users to gradually accumulate sustainable returns through long-term, rule-based participation, unaffected by short-term market fluctuations. 

Summary

IO DeFi is a UK-based cloud mining and digital asset yield platform. The platform operates within relevant international compliance frameworks, emphasizing transparent rules, traceable processes, and long-term stable operation.

Since 2016, IO DeFi’s services have covered approximately 180 countries and regions worldwide, accumulating over 3 million users and gradually forming a mature global operating system.

For more information, visit the official website or download the mobile app.

Official email: [email protected]

Kyle Samani, the co-founder and long-time managing partner of Multicoin Capital, is stepping down after a decade shaping crypto investment at the firm. In a Wednesday post, he described the move as bittersweet and said he plans to take time off to explore new areas of technology, including artificial intelligence and robotics. The announcement comes as Multicoin continues to navigate a regulatory and market backdrop that has intensified scrutiny of crypto, while the firm’s public stance on the sector remains resolute: crypto is at a pivotal moment, with potential for widespread adoption as clarity and infrastructure mature.

Key takeaways

• Kyle Samani will relinquish his role as Multicoin Capital’s managing partner after ten years, signaling a leadership transition for one of crypto’s best-known investment shops.
• He frames the move as a personal pivot toward other technologies, notably AI and robotics, while reaffirming his conviction that crypto will fundamentally reshape finance.
• Samani remains bullish on Solana and intends to continue investing personally in crypto and supporting Multicoin portfolio companies, even as he steps back from day-to-day management.
• The discussion around crypto’s structural reforms continues to hinge on regulatory clarity, with Samani suggesting policy developments will unlock a wave of new entrants into the space.
• Multicoin Capital has grown into a prominent firm, managing billions in assets; Samani’s departure coincides with ongoing market cycles and a broader push for scalable crypto infrastructure.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH, $SOL

Sentiment: Bullish

Market context: The crypto industry remains attentive to regulatory clarity and infrastructure maturity as capital flows and investor interest shift toward assets with tangible, scalable utility, while venture firms weigh how policy will affect participation and fundraising.

Why it matters

The leadership change at Multicoin Capital underscores the endurance of one of crypto’s most influential investment firms, even as its co-founder pivots toward other technological frontiers. Samani’s exit does not appear to reflect retreat from crypto—rather, it signals a broader personal transition that could intersect with Multicoin’s ongoing strategy and sector bets. He has been a vocal figure in the industry, renowned for his willingness to critique established narratives and to back networks and ecosystems that he believes can deliver real, long-term value.

Samani’s remarks trace a throughline from his early days in crypto to his more recent stance on the technology landscape. He has credited Ethereum’s permissionless finance and smart contracts with catalyzing his initial interest in the space, though he later argued that scaling challenges constrained Ethereum’s progress. His evolving viewpoint reflects a broader industry dialogue about how to balance innovation with practical deployment, and how different ecosystems—Solana included—fit into a diversified strategy for long-term growth. Even as he contemplates stepping away from a formal leadership role, his insights into crypto’s trajectory—particularly around regulatory clarity and infrastructure readiness—remain influential within Multicoin and among its portfolio companies.

Solana’s place in Multicoin’s narrative has been pivotal. The firm identified Solana early and backed it through some of its initial rounds, a move that helped solidify Multicoin’s reputation for spotting promising ecosystems ahead of wider market recognition. Samani’s public remarks in recent years have highlighted Solana as a case study in throughput and user experiences that crypto networks aim to deliver, even as the industry continues to grapple with governance, network upgrades, and competition from other layer-1s. The departure does not alter Multicoin’s long-standing belief in the potential of crypto to disrupt traditional financial rails; it may, however, recalibrate how the firm allocates resources and mentors its portfolio in a slowly maturing market.

Beyond Solana and the broader ecosystem debates, the letter co-authored by Samani and Multicoin’s other co-founder, Tushar Jain, signaled a strategic openness to technologies beyond crypto. They proposed that Samani would explore AI, longevity, and robotics, signaling a shift toward interdisciplinarity that aligns with a broader tech industry trend: investors increasingly seek exposure to adjacent technologies with parallel growth trajectories. Within this context, Samani’s move can be read as a personal exploration that could feed back into Multicoin’s strategy as the crypto market cycles continue to evolve, and as the firm navigates a landscape increasingly defined by capital discipline and regulatory clarity.

What to watch next

• Samani’s next ventures and whether he will formalize new partnerships or ventures in AI, robotics, or related tech sectors.
• Multicoin Capital’s updated leadership and portfolio strategy in response to Samani’s departure, including any changes in fund allocation or emphasis on specific ecosystems.
• Regulatory developments around crypto, including any movement on the policy front that could accelerate or slow institutional participation and mainstream adoption.
• Continued performance and development within Solana’s ecosystem, given Multicoin’s historical early bets and Samani’s stated confidence in crypto’s ongoing evolution.
• Investor sentiment and capital flows into crypto infrastructure projects as the industry positions itself for the next phase of growth amid regulatory clarity and institutional partner engagement.

Sources & verification

• Official post by Kyle Samani announcing his stepping down and outlining future focus areas.
• Past statements indicating Samani’s criticism of Bitcoin and Ethereum ecosystems and subsequent discussions around scaling and governance.
• Historical context on Multicoin Capital’s early involvement with Solana and the firm’s later asset-management figures as of May 2025.
• Public letters co-authored by Samani and Tushar Jain describing Samani’s future interests beyond crypto.
• Public statements linking crypto’s trajectory to regulatory clarity and infrastructure maturity as drivers of adoption.

Samani’s leadership transition and the path ahead

The transition at Multicoin Capital arrives at a moment when the crypto industry is balancing the pursuit of rapid innovation with the demands of a more mature regulatory regime. Samani’s decision to step aside, while continuing to engage with the space through investments and portfolio support, suggests a nuanced approach to leadership during a period of significant opportunity and risk. For investors and builders, the development reinforces a pattern: vision and conviction around a given ecosystem—coupled with a willingness to adapt to new technologies and regulatory realities—remain central to navigating a crypto market that has moved beyond novelty toward mainstream-scale expectations.

As Samani shifts his focus toward AI and robotics, the industry will be watching whether his next ventures generate cross-pollination opportunities for crypto—from data privacy and computing architectures to new forms of digital asset interactions in AI-enabled services. In the near term, Multicoin’s stewardship of its portfolios and its response to evolving policy signals will be scrutinized by fund partners, researchers, and developers who view the firm as a bellwether for venture activity in the crypto space. The enduring takeaway is that leadership changes in high-profile crypto shops often herald reassessments rather than abrupt pivots, with the underlying conviction about crypto’s potential continuing to shape decisions across investment theses and risk tolerance in the months ahead.

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Ripple has announced that its institutional prime brokerage platform, Ripple Prime, now supports the decentralized derivatives trading protocol Hyperliquid.

The integration gives Ripple Prime clients access to Hyperliquid’s onchain perpetuals liquidity while keeping margin and risk managed inside Ripple Prime. The company said clients will be able to cross-margin decentralized finance derivatives exposures, alongside positions in other markets the platform supports.

Ripple Prime currently supports traditional assets that include FX, fixed income, over-the-counter swaps, and more. The platform acts as a single point of access for institutions managing multi-asset portfolios, offering centralized risk management and capital efficiency, Ripple said.

The integration builds on growing interoperability in the space. Earlier this year Flare, a blockchain focused on interoperability, launched the first XRP spot market on Hyperliquid with the listing of FXRP. Ripple’s announcement focuses on derivatives access through Ripple Prime rather than retail spot trading.

Hyperliquid has drawn attention over its rapid growth to become the largest perpetual contracts decentralized exchange. As of mid-January, it had surpassed $5 billion in open interest and $200 billion in monthly trading volume, outpacing several rival exchanges.

Its recent surge in tokenized commodity trades, including silver futures, has attracted interest in the space and helped its HYPE token outperform during the ongoing selloff. The platform is also eyeing prediction markets.

Ripple launched its Prime platform in late 2025 following its $1.25 billion acquisition of prime brokerage firm Hidden Road.

Network News

VITALIK BUTERIN SAYS LAYER-2 ROADMAP ‘NO LONGER MAKES SENSE’: Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said the role of layer-2 networks needs to be reconsidered as the blockchain’s main network continues to scale and transaction costs remain low. In a post on X, Buterin said the original rollup-centric roadmap, which positioned layer-2s as the primary way Ethereum would scale, “no longer makes sense.” That roadmap envisioned layer-2s as secure extensions of Ethereum that would handle most transactions while inheriting Ethereum’s security guarantees, often described as “branded shards” of the network. According to Buterin, two developments have challenged that original vision for layer-2 networks. First, progress among layer 2s toward later stages of decentralization has been slower and more difficult than expected. Second, Ethereum is now scaling directly on layer 1, with fees remaining low and gas limits expected to increase significantly. In his view, because Ethereum itself is scaling, layer-2 networks are no longer required to function as official extensions of Ethereum. He also noted that many layer-2s are “not able or willing” to meet the decentralization and security standards required by the model and that some layer 2s may intentionally choose not to move beyond “stage 1,” including for regulatory reasons. — Margaux Nijkerk Read more.

BITCOIN OPEN-SOURCE ALTERNATIVE: Tether released an open-source operating system for bitcoin mining, pitching it as a way to make running mining infrastructure simpler while reducing reliance on closed, vendor-controlled software. The stablecoin issuer said it rolled out MiningOS (MOS), describing it as a modular, scalable mining operating system designed for anyone from hobbyist miners to large institutions. The stack is intended to remove the “black box” nature of many mining setups, where hardware and monitoring tools are tightly tied to proprietary platforms. “MiningOS changes that — introducing transparency, openness, and collaboration into the core of Bitcoin infrastructure,” Tether said on the project’s website, adding that the system is built with “no lock-in.” According to Tether, MOS uses a self-hosted architecture and communicates with connected devices through an integrated peer-to-peer network, allowing operators to manage mining activity without relying on centralized services. The company said miners can adjust settings through a companion platform depending on the scale of their operation and output requirements. CEO Paolo Ardoino called MOS a “complete operational platform” that can scale from a home setup to an “industrial grade” site spread across multiple geographies. Tether first previewed plans for an open-source mining OS in June, arguing that new miners should be able to compete without having to depend on expensive third-party vendors for software and management tools. — Shaurya Malwa Read more.

ETHEREUM FOUNDATION POST-QUANTUM TEAM: Quantum computing has long been a distant, theoretical threat to blockchain cryptography. But over the past few months, that calculus has shifted. While the Bitcoin community has been debating threats to its protocol for the past year, the Ethereum community seems to be only now taking its first steps. “Quantum computing is moving from theory into engineering,” said Thomas Coratger, who leads the Ethereum Foundation’s (EF) post-quantum (PQ) team. “That changes the timeline, and it means we need to prepare.” Earlier in January, the foundation formally elevated post-quantum security to a strategic priority, creating that dedicated team to drive research, tooling and real-world upgrades to protect the network’s cryptographic foundations. At the same time, major industry participants are building their own defenses: Coinbase announced an independent quantum advisory board staffed with leading cryptographers to guide long-term blockchain security planning, signaling that even custodial infrastructure must prepare for quantum-era risks. And across the ecosystem, Optimism, is one of Ethereum’s largest layer-2 networks, laid out a formal 10-year roadmap to transition its Superchain stack, from wallets to sequencers, toward post-quantum cryptography, committing to phase out vulnerable signatures and ensure continuity across layer-2 networks. Together, these moves mark a noticeable shift: post-quantum security is no longer a fringe topic for the far future, but a live concern shaping development roadmaps, governance discussions and ecosystem coordination across Ethereum and beyond. For the EF, the move toward post-quantum security isn’t about sounding an alarm, it’s about not being caught flat-footed. — Margaux Nijkerk Read more.

NEW LENDING PROTOCOL FOR XRP ASSETS: The Flare blockchain introduced lending and borrowing for XRP-linked assets through an integration with Morpho, a crypto lending protocol that runs across multiple Ethereum compatible chains. The update lets users lend and borrow with FXRP, a version of XRP designed for use on Flare, the team behind the blockchain said. Flare pitched the move as a step toward giving XRP owners more ways to earn yield and use their tokens beyond holding or trading. For years, XRP has had fewer decentralized finance (DeFi) options than tokens built on smart contract networks. Flare has been trying to change that by building tools that let XRP be used in onchain apps while keeping the original XRP on the XRP Ledger. FXRP holders can now deposit their tokens to earn interest, or use FXRP as collateral to borrow other assets such as stablecoins. Flare said these positions can also be combined with other features on the network, including staking and yield products, for users who want more active strategies. Morpho differs from older lending apps that mix many assets into one shared pool. Each lending market is set up with one collateral asset and one borrowed asset, and the rules for that market are set when it is created. This structure is meant to keep problems in one market from spilling into others. — Shaurya Malwa Read more.

In Other News

• The next evolution of asset management will be “wallet-native,” not just digital, according to Franklin Templeton’s head of innovation, Sandy Kaul. Speaking at the Ondo Summit in New York on Tuesday, Kaul said she envisions a future where all financial assets — stocks, bonds, funds, and more — are held and managed through tokenized digital wallets. “The totality of people’s assets is going to be represented in these wallets,” she said. The panel, which included Cynthia Lo Bessette of Fidelity, Kim Hochfeld of State Street and Will Peck of WisdomTree, agreed that tokenization is no longer a theoretical concept. After years of slow progress, infrastructure is now in place, and use cases are expanding beyond early experiments. The panelists cautioned that building utility and trust is now the industry’s biggest challenge. “The idea of bringing an asset and representing it onchain with a token is the easiest part,” said Lo Bessette, head of digital asset management at Fidelity. “The hardest part is building the ecosystem for utility.” Despite recent growth, adoption remains early. Hochfeld, State Street’s global head of digital and cash, said much of the current work is focused on internal and client education. “We’re not yet seeing a rush to the door,” Hochfeld said. “We’ve got to experiment … and see what works.” — Helene Braun Read more.
• TRM Labs, a blockchain analytics startup used by global law enforcement and financial firms, raised $70 million in a new funding round that pushed its valuation to $1 billion. The Series C round, Fortune reports, was led by Blockchain Capital with participation from Goldman Sachs, Citi Ventures, Bessemer, Thoma Bravo and Brevan Howard. The firm, according to data from TheTie, has raised nearly $150 million to date, having seen another $70 million fundraise back in 2023, along with other smaller fundraising rounds That bring the total to $220 million. The firm’s software helps trace cryptocurrency transactions across multiple blockchains, a service increasingly in demand as crypto crime grows more complex.TRM counts several major government agencies, including the IRS and FBI, among its clients, as well as major banks. It was an early mover in tracking not just bitcoin but various other cryptocurrencies, a decision that set it apart from competitors. That edge has become more valuable as criminal networks diversify their use of tokens and platforms. — Francisco Rodrigues Read more.

Regulatory and Policy

• At a White House meeting called to thaw the ice between crypto firms and Wall Street bankers, the crypto insiders — who outnumbered the bankers by a wide margin — came away feeling the banks were dragging their heels on making a deal on crypto market structure legislation. The White House gave them all new marching orders, according to people familiar with the talks: Get to a compromise on new language on stablecoin yields before the month is out. The crypto industry’s top policy priority is still struggling to make headway in the U.S. Senate, and the longer it’s delayed from getting a floor vote in the overall Senate, the less likely it is to happen this year. The gathering — led by President Donald Trump’s crypto adviser Patrick Witt — was largely focused on whether stablecoins should be associated with yield and rewards. Policy experts from the crypto industry and Wall Street banks gathered in the White House’s Diplomatic Reception Room for more than two hours to discuss how to overhaul the stickiest provisions of the bill, the people said. The talks will continue with a narrower group, the people said, and the White House has asked them to come to the table ready to agree on actual changes to the bill’s language. One of the people said that the banking representatives were members of trade associations and may need to get buy-in from their members before they can make a move in the negotiation. — Jesse Hamilton Read more.
• Rui-Siang Lin, the alleged operator of the dark web narcotics marketplace “Incognito Market,” was sentenced to 30 years in U.S. federal prison, according to a statement from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, bringing to a close one of the largest online drug market prosecutions since Silk Road. Lin, a 24-year-old Taiwanese national who used the online alias “Pharaoh,” pleaded guilty in December 2024 to narcotics conspiracy, money laundering and conspiring to sell adulterated and misbranded medication. Prosecutors said the platform processed more than $105 million in illegal drug sales between October 2020 and March 2024, facilitating more than 640,000 transactions and serving hundreds of thousands of buyers worldwide. “Rui-Siang Lin was one of the world’s most prolific drug traffickers, using the internet to sell more than $105 million of illegal drugs throughout this country and across the globe,” U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton said in a statement. “While Lin made millions, his offenses had devastating consequences. He is responsible for at least one tragic death, and he exacerbated the opioid crisis and caused misery for more than 470,000 narcotics users and their families.” — Sam Reynolds Read more.

Calendar

• Feb. 10-12, 2026: Consensus, Hong Kong
• Feb. 17-21, 2026: EthDenver, Denver
• Feb. 23-24, 2026: NearCon, San Francisco
• Mar. 30-Apr. 2, 2026: EthCC, Cannes
• Apr.15-16, 2026: Paris Blockchain Week, Paris
• May 5-7, 2026: Consensus, Miami
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Bitcoin briefly dipped below $72,000 on Thursday morning in early Asian trading hours, hitting its lowest level in nearly 16 months. As the selloff deepens, prediction market traders on Polymarket are rapidly repricing their expectations — and the data paints a sobering picture for the short term, even as longer-term optimism persists.

Polymarket’s real-money contracts show a market caught between defending $70,000 as a floor and clinging to $100,000 in annual returns.

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February Outlook: $70K Is the Line in the Sand

Polymarket’s February Bitcoin price contract, with 24 days remaining and nearly $1.78 million in volume on the $70,000 target alone, tells a clear story.

The $70,000 contract surged to 74% probability — up 65% — making it the most heavily traded target for the month. Upside expectations have collapsed: the $85,000 contract plunged 61% to just 29%, while $90,000 sits at 12% and $95,000 at only 7%.

On the downside, the $65,000 contract dropped 13% to 39%, while $60,000 holds at 19%. Probabilities of a crash below $55,000 are in the single digits. The implied range for February is $65,000–$85,000, with $70,000 as the most probable point.

2026 Annual Contract: Still Bullish, but Fraying

The longer-term Polymarket contract shows a more nuanced picture. The $100,000 level has a 55% probability but is down 29%, while $110,000 is at 42% and down 29%. These are significant declines from just weeks ago, when traders were pricing in a continuation of 2025’s rally.

The $65,000 contract for 2026 surged 24% to 83% with over $1 million in volume — the highest on the board — signaling traders are focused on downside protection rather than upside speculation. The upper curve drops steeply: $130,000 at 20%, $140,000 at 15%, and $250,000 near 5%.

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What’s Driving the Selloff

Bitcoin was trading at approximately $73,199 at the time of writing, after briefly dipping below $72,000 earlier Thursday. The token has fallen 16% year-to-date and roughly 40% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.

Multiple factors are converging: rising geopolitical tensions, lingering data gaps from last fall’s record 43-day government shutdown, and a hawkish Federal Reserve chair nomination, strengthening the dollar

The technical damage has been severe. Over $5.4 billion in liquidations have occurred since late January, pushing open interest to a nine-month low. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled capital for most of the past three weeks, with outflows of $817 million on January 29, $509 million on January 30, and $272 million on February 3, punctuated by a single $561 million inflow day on February 2. Total net assets across spot Bitcoin ETFs have fallen from over $128 billion in mid-January to $97 billion.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has plunged to 12 — deep in “Extreme Fear” and its lowest since November 2025. Gold, meanwhile, has surged past $5,000 per ounce, underscoring a broad rotation into safe havens.

The Bottom Line

Polymarket’s data offers a real-time window into how traders with money on the line are positioned. February expectations center on $65,000–$85,000 with almost no chance of reclaiming $95,000.

The annual contract is more forgiving, with a slim majority still expecting $100,000 sometime in 2026. But even that conviction is weakening. For now, $70,000 is the number everyone is watching.

Ripple integrates Hyperliquid for its prime brokerage solution.

Hyperliquid seems to be the talk of the town lately, and Ripple just announced that its Ripple Prime brokerage platform will support the perp DEX. In other words, the firm’s institutional clients will be able to access on-chain derivatives while cross-margining their exposure to decentralized finance with all other assets that are supported by Ripple Prime.

These include cleared derivatives, OTC swaps, fixed income, forex, and other digital assets.

According to the official release, “clients can access Hyperliquid liquidity while benefiting from a single counterparty relationship.”

Speaking on the matter was Michael Higgins, the international CEO of Ripple Primer, who said:

“At Ripple Prime, we are excited to continue leading the way in merging decentralized finance with traditional prime brokerage services, offering direct support to trading, yield generation, and a wider range of digital assets. This strategic extension of our prime brokerage platform into DeFi will enhance our clients’ access to liquidity, providing the greater efficiency and innovation that our institutional clients demand.”

Ripple continues to expand its product offering while also working on licensing and regulatory issues worldwide. Recently, they secured a preliminary electronic money institution license in Luxembourg.

The move to integrate Hyperliquid into their prime brokerage solution also comes at a time when the decentralized perpetual futures exchange is attracting billions in daily volumes across a variety of assets, providing the deepest on-chain liquidity order book in the industry.