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US CPI Inflation Set to Jump in March, Putting an End to Gradual Two-Year Decline

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The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday. The report is expected to show a jump in inflation, driven by the upsurge seen in crude Oil prices after the United States (US) and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran. 

The monthly CPI is forecast to rise 0.9%, following the 0.3% increase recorded in March, while the annual reading is seen climbing to its highest level since May 2024 at 3.3%, from 2.4% in February. Core CPI figures, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, are expected to come in at 0.3% and 2.7%, on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively. 

Since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East on February 28, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up about 40%, even after the sharp decline seen following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran earlier this week. In March, WTI gained nearly 50%, rising from about $67 per barrel to settle near $100 by the end of the month. 

Previewing the inflation data, “the recent surge in crude prices will be the main factor behind the 0.9% m/m jump in the CPI. The Y/Y rate will leap close to 1pp to 3.3% in March, a two-year-high,” said TD Securities analysts. 

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“Core inflation will stay shielded from the oil shock for now, rising 0.27% m/m. We look for tariff pass-through to continue playing a role by lifting goods prices. Supercore inflation likely stayed firm at 0.3%,” they added. 

What to Expect in the Next CPI Data Report?

CPI figures for March will reflect the impact of high oil prices on inflation, which shouldn’t be surprising. Even if the annual CPI inflation rises 3.3% in March, as forecast, investors could see that as a temporary increase in case they remain confident that Oil prices will come down significantly, with a permanent truce in the Middle East allowing the Strait of Hormuz to remain open. 

However, the growing uncertainty about the sustainability of a ceasefire and Iran’s condition to retain control of the strait in a peace agreement complicates the picture and raises doubts about a steady pullback in Oil prices. Hence, the developments in the Middle East are likely to shape inflation expectations, rather than the March CPI reading itself.

The Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) March meeting showed that a number of policymakers are already pushing back the timing of potential rate cuts, reflecting lingering concerns that inflation could prove more persistent than expected. 

In fact, a large majority flagged the risk that price pressures could stay elevated for longer, particularly if higher Oil prices feed through more broadly. 

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“Provided that underlying inflation excluding energy remains contained, the Fed can afford to look through the oil-price shock and refrain from raising rates amid a mixed US labor market backdrop,” BBH analysts said. 

How Could the US Consumer Price Index Report Affect Eur/USD?

Markets currently see about a 75% chance of the Fed leaving the policy rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% by the end of the year, compared to a 17% probability seen on March 9, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

us cpi
Source: CME Group 

A stronger-than-forecast monthly CPI print for March might not be able to influence the market pricing of the Fed’s interest-rate outlook in a significant way.

However, if a hot inflation print is combined with a re-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and growing expectations about the naval activity in the Strait of Hormuz not going back to its pre-war state anytime soon, investors could reassess the probability of a Fed hike in response to persistent inflation. In this scenario, the US Dollar (USD) could gather strength and force EUR/USD to turn south. 

Conversely, the USD could remain under bearish pressure – and allow EUR/USD to extend its rebound – in case crude Oil prices continue to come down in a steady way, regardless of the March CPI figures. 

In summary, March inflation prints are unlikely to trigger a significant market reaction, while market focus remains on the US-Iran crisis and its impact on Oil prices. 

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Eren Sengezer, FXStreet European Session Lead Analyst, shares a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD. 

“EUR/USD’s near-term technical outlook points to a bullish tilt. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart climbed above 50 for the first time since the beginning of the US-Iran war and the pair broke above the two-month-old descending trend line.” 

“The Fibonacci 50% retracement level of the February-April trend aligns as the next resistance level at 1.1730 ahead of 1.1800 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.1900 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement). On the downside, the immediate support is located at 1.1650 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement). In case this support fails, technical sellers could show interest, opening the door for an extended slide toward 1.1560 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and 1.1500 (static level, round level).”

The post US CPI Inflation Set to Jump in March, Putting an End to Gradual Two-Year Decline appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Volatility compression grips crypto markets ahead of U.S. inflation report: Crypto Markets Today

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Volatility compression grips crypto markets ahead of U.S. inflation report: Crypto Markets Today

The crypto market held steady on Friday, with bitcoin trading little changed at $71,700 and ether (ETH) at $2,180, extending the low-volatility price action that has characterized the past few months.

Daily Bollinger bands, a technical analysis tool that measures market volatility, are at their narrowest since early 2024. In the past, such a tight range — bitcoin has held between $63,000 and $75,000 since early February — has ended with a 40% move in price, according crypto analyst Eric Crown.

A breakout above $75,000 in bitcoin’s case would trigger upside momentum by trapping traders who are short and need to buy at market prices to cover their positions, while a short-term move below $70,000 will liquidate around $200 million worth of long positions that are betting on the breakout, according to CoinGlass’ liquidation heatmap.

One key catalyst on Friday will be the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data. March inflation is estimated at 3.3% year-on-year, driven by surging energy prices. High inflation figures tend to spur upside price action in the U.S. dollar, which could weigh on risk assets like bitcoin.

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Derivatives positioning

  • Open interest (OI) in bitcoin futures increased by 1%, with average perpetual funding rates on major exchanges at their highest since Feb. 4. This shows a strengthening investor appetite for bullish exposure.
  • Other major cryptocurrencies were mixed. OI increased slightly in XRP (XRP) while holding flat in ether (ETH) and solana (SOL). HYPE and AVAX are other standouts, displaying a bullish combination of OI growth and positive funding rates.
  • The privacy-focused ZEC, meanwhile, shows OI growth and negative rates, a sign that traders are continuing to short futures and hedge downside risks even as the spot price rallies. ZEC’s price rose to nearly $400, the highest since Jan. 28.
  • There seems to be no end to the downtrend in BTC’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV. The measure has slipped to 45%, indicating market calm. It has dropped in a near-straight line from 58% on March 31. Ether’s volatility index shows a similar pattern.
  • The decline in volatility is largely led by ETF-related flows. “The ETF complex has created a feedback loop: institutions sell calls for yield, which suppresses upside vol, which makes selling more calls even more attractive. The impact is still subtle, but the direction of travel is clear. Bitcoin’s options market is maturing into a structurally skewed market, just like equities,” STS Digital’s CEO Maxime Seiler told CoinDesk.
  • The implied volatility term structure is flat for the next six months and then rises from September, suggesting the market is prepping for a quiet few months in between.
  • On Deribit, BTC and ETH options continue to display put skews, although it’s much weaker than a week ago as traders chase upside bets, particularly the BTC call option at the $80,000 strike.

Token talk

  • CoinDesk’s DeFi Select Index (DFX) is the best-performing benchmark on Friday, rising by 0.38% while the bitcoin-dominant CoinDesk 5 (CD5) is down by a quarter of a percent.
  • The CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) is the worst performer, losing 1.4% after it was dragged down by bittensor (TAO), which lost more than 12% since midnight UTC after Covenant AI, one of the network’s largest subnet developers, said it was leaving Bittensor.
  • “The entire premise of Bittensor, the promise that drew builders, miners, validators, and investors into this ecosystem, is that no single entity controls it,” Covenant AI founder Sam Dare wrote on X. “That promise is a lie.”
  • One token that shrugged off broader crypto market apathy was DASH, which surged more than 19% since midnight UTC, contributing to a 24-hour gain of 34% as traders rotated back into the privacy sector.

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Japan regulates crypto assets as financial instruments

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Japan, Cryptocurrency Investment

The Japanese government amended the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act on Friday to classify crypto assets as financial instruments.

The amendment also bans insider trading and other activities that involve buying and selling based on undisclosed information, Nikkei reported.

The amended act will also now require cryptocurrency “issuers” to be more transparent and disclose information once a year.

Japan’s Financial Services Agency has previously regulated crypto assets under the Payment and Settlement Act, citing their potential use as a means of payment. However, the regulations and classifications have been updated to reflect increasing institutional investment in the asset class.

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By reclassifying crypto as a financial instrument rather than just a payment method, Japan is moving crypto out of the experimental payments category and into the same league as its stock market.

Japan, Cryptocurrency Investment
Source: Startale Group CEO Sota Watanabe

Crypto under the TradFi umbrella

“We will expand the supply of growth capital in response to changes in financial and capital markets, and ensure market fairness, transparency, and investor protection,” said Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama at a press conference after the Cabinet meeting. 

Fines and sentences for unregistered crypto exchanges have also increased under the amendment. 

Related: Prediction markets are testing legal limits in strict Asian markets

Japan signaled that it was bringing crypto under the same umbrella as traditional finance in January when Katayama said, “To ensure citizens benefit from digital and blockchain-based assets, the role of exchanges and market infrastructure will be essential.” 

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The government backed plans in December to significantly reduce Japan’s maximum tax rate on crypto profits, with a flat rate of 20% across the board.  

Crypto ETFs coming to Japan

Japan is also planning to legalize crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by 2028, marking a major shift toward mainstream crypto adoption, according to a January report. 

Major financial groups, including Nomura Holdings and SBI Holdings, are among the first companies expected to develop crypto-linked exchange-traded products

Asia Express: Phantom Bitcoin checks, China tracks tax on blockchain

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