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US Liquidity Is the Real Culprit

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US Liquidity Is the Real Culprit


Raoul Pal said that Bitcoin’s collapse reflects a temporary US liquidity drain, not a broken crypto cycle or failed market.

Bitcoin has plunged almost 40% from its peak of $126,000. While it currently trades a little above $77,000, prices remain fragile, and investors are positioning for a deeper drawdown.

Amidst intense bearish sentiment, Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor, said that widely circulating claims that BTC and the broader crypto market are “broken” represent a false narrative driven by temporary liquidity conditions rather than a failed cycle.

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Bitcoin and SaaS

Pal said the dominant market story indicates the crypto cycle is over, and prices are collapsing due to factors such as exchange issues, institutional actions, or structural flaws. But he described this view as an “alluring narrative trap” which has been reinforced by continued daily price declines. Analysis showed that the UBS SaaS Index and Bitcoin have followed nearly identical price patterns, which essentially indicates a common underlying factor rather than asset-specific problems.

According to Pal, that factor is US liquidity, which has been constrained as a result of several technical and fiscal factors. He pointed to the completion of the US Reverse Repo drain in 2024, followed by Treasury General Account (TGA) rebuilds in July and August that lacked an offsetting liquidity injection, which ended up resulting in a liquidity withdrawal.

Pal stated this liquidity shortage has also contributed to weak ISM readings. While Global Total Liquidity typically has the strongest long-term correlation with Bitcoin and US equities, he argued that US Total Liquidity is currently more influential because the US is the primary source of global liquidity. The GMI founder added that global liquidity has led US liquidity this cycle and is beginning to turn higher, which is expected to feed through to US liquidity and economic indicators.

Bitcoin and SaaS have been particularly affected because they are among the longest-duration assets and therefore most sensitive to liquidity conditions.  The rally in gold absorbed marginal liquidity that might otherwise have flowed into riskier assets such as Bitcoin and SaaS, leaving insufficient liquidity to support all asset classes at the same time, he said.

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The current US government shutdown has intensified the liquidity drain, as the Treasury did not draw down the TGA after the previous shutdown and instead added to it. He called the resulting environment a temporary “air pocket,” which has caused severe price pressure.

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However, Pal said signs indicate the shutdown could be resolved soon, and characterized it as the final major liquidity obstacle. He reiterated that additional liquidity factors, such as adjustments to the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR), partial TGA drawdowns, fiscal stimulus, and eventual rate cuts, remain ahead.

Hawkish Fed Fears

Some market commentators have hinted that expectations of a more cautious pace of rate cuts under incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh have also weighed on markets. But Pal rejected claims that Warsh represents a hawkish policy stance, and instead called the narrative incorrect and rooted in outdated comments. He believes Warsh’s approach aligns with policies favoring rate cuts and economic expansion, while maintaining balance sheet stability due to reserve constraints.

Despite the recent turmoil in the market, Pal said that he remains strongly bullish on 2026.

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Crypto World

Maestro Debuts Bitcoin Credit Market for Institutional BTC Mining Yield

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Maestro Debuts Bitcoin Credit Market for Institutional BTC Mining Yield

Bitcoin infrastructure provider Maestro has launched a Bitcoin-denominated credit market backed by mining economics, aiming to give institutions a new way to earn yield on idle Bitcoin while expanding financing options for miners.

Maestro said Mezzamine went live with its first program in partnership with mining-as-a-service provider Sazmining. According to a Tuesday announcement shared with Cointelegraph, the program is designed to let institutional Bitcoin (BTC) holders deploy BTC into mining-backed credit facilities targeting an annual yield of 8% to 9%.

The offering is designed to connect miners seeking capital with institutional Bitcoin holders seeking BTC-denominated yield, creating an onchain credit market tied to mining expansion rather than protocol staking rewards.

“New Bitcoins are mined every 10 minutes, and with Mezzamine BTC holders can earn and share block rewards with miners,” Marvin Bertin, Maestro’s co-founder and CEO, said in the announcement.

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Related: Top Bitcoin mining stocks rise as US winter storms cut hashrate

Bitcoin-native credit market seeks to fix miner financing gap

Bitcoin mining firms often face limited financing options, typically relying on dollar-denominated debt against Bitcoin collateral or, if publicly listed, equity issuance.

Because many miners’ liabilities are denominated in dollars while revenue is earned in Bitcoin, that structure can leave operations more exposed during sharp market downturns.

Maestro said the credit facility includes bear-market protection features, including hedging tied to Bitcoin prices and mining-fleet economics, to help stabilize performance during downturns.

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The company said miners may face higher financing costs in stronger markets in exchange for a structure designed to offer greater stability during downturns.

Launch of the first Bitcoin-native credit market for mining economy. Source: Maestro

The offering is aimed at institutional investors, corporate treasuries, asset managers, family offices and registered investment advisers. Suresh Rajan, Mezzamine’s managing director, told Cointelegraph the minimum allocation is $100,000 worth of Bitcoin.

Mezzamine said the yield is derived directly from mining production. Miners borrowing through the platform use capital to buy additional ASIC hardware and expand hashrate, with part of the resulting block rewards used to service the credit facility and the remainder flowing to the miner.

According to Maestro, institutions receive yield funded entirely by the mining output, without additional token incentives or leveraged strategies.

Related: Solo Bitcoin miner bags over $200K block reward using rented hashrate

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Bitcoin-denominated loans reduce miner liquidation risks

Bitcoin miners seeking traditional financing are often required to overcollateralize two-fold, increasing liquidation risks during Bitcoin price drops. 

The new credit facility reduces that risk by denominating loans in Bitcoin and removing dollar-denominated call risks, Mezzamine’s managing director, Rajan, told Cointelegraph:

“A decline in Bitcoin’s price against the dollar does not trigger a margin call, and with Mezzamine’s hedged vehicle, the hedge actually returns profits in bear markets that can supplement mining revenue and further capitalize the program.”

“The loan performs according to mining economics, not currency markets,” he added.

Maestro told Cointelegraph it has seen more than 1,500 BTC in borrowing demand from qualified mining operators exploring alternative financing channels, including public miners and mid-sized operators.

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Sazmining describes itself as a Bitcoin mining-as-a-service provider whose operations rely on hydropower and other carbon-free energy sources.

Magazine: 6 weirdest devices people have used to mine Bitcoin and crypto