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US margin debt reached all-time highs as crypto lost $2 trillion

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US margin debt reached all-time highs as crypto lost $2 trillion

The highest level of margin utilization by US traders in history has, unfortunately, led to historic underperformance in crypto prices as speculators re-learned timeless wisdom: leverage works both ways.

After spending 2025 through January 2026 building their largest leveraged positions in history, bets on digital assets have unraveled with unnerving speed.

In January 2026, US margin debt had surged to a record $1.28 trillion — its ninth consecutive monthly increase and a 50% rise from April 2025. That financial leverage added bids to crypto assets which made new all-time highs in May, July, August, and October 2025.

Then, despite investors continuing to pile on more margin debt than ever, prices collapsed 47% and shed $2 trillion in combined market capitalization as a sector rotation to AI and precious metals ensued.

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Crypto losses since October are staggering.

Chart of total crypto market cap, April 2025 to present. Source: TradingView

US margin debt increased $53 billion from December to January alone. Worse, the ratio of margin to real disposable personal income exceeded 6.0% in January for the first time on record.

That ratio measures more financial leverage in January 2026 relative to income than the dot-com mania.

Leverage-fueled demand flows into crypto instruments like bitcoin (BTC) futures, spot and leveraged ETFs, call options, and publicly traded crypto companies. Although more leverage can amplify gains, it also amplifies crashes.

Although traditional margin statistics are an incomplete measure of total systemic risk on crypto, which has vast quantities of opaque exchanges and trade data APIs controlled by offshore entities with little to no regulatory oversight, it can nonetheless inform some analysis about the causes of crypto volatility.

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A supernova of crypto leverage that wiped out $2 trillion

Some crypto derivatives traders spent mid-2025 building their largest leveraged positions in history, then watched all of their paper gains evaporate.

Aggregate crypto futures open interest peaked above $220 billion on October 6, 2025. Within a week, the industry began to crash and never looked back.

October 10 produced more than $19 billion in total liquidations across exchanges, according to CoinGlass data — the single largest day of forced closures in crypto history.

Many saw Binance as a convenient scapegoat.

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Read more: Crypto traders consider lawsuits after $600B market meltdown

Record-setting volatility continued amid record-setting margin levels. On February 5, 2026, another flash-crash drove BTC from $73,000 to $62,000 and wiped out 10-figure position values within a single day. 

Worst day of realized losses from BTC liquidations

Glassnode estimated that February 5’s crash produced $3.2 billion in realized losses from liquidated BTC trades — the largest single-day realized loss in Glassnode’s recorded history that surpassed even October 10, 2025, the FTX bankruptcy in November 2022, or the May 2022 collapse of Terra/Luna.

By late February, crypto’s margin trading hangover had set in.

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CoinGlass’ Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to five out of 100 — a never-before-seen rating that exceeded its Three Arrows Capital bankruptcy low of six in June 2022, and its COVID-19 low of seven in March 2020.

As of writing, the index still remains near historic lows at nine, or “extreme fear.”

Losses amid record margin levels have also drawn out spot BTC from US ETFs. Specifically, spot BTC ETFs lost $4.5 billion in net outflows through the first eight weeks of 2026, according to Investing.com.

The leveraged unwind of Strategy 

Adding insult to injury, software company-turned-leveraged BTC acquirer Strategy became the most-shorted large cap stock in the US last month, according to data from FactSet cited by multiple outlets.

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The company held 717,722 BTC over this weekend, purchased at an average cost near $76,020 per coin. With BTC trading in the mid-$60,000s, the company faces unrealized losses in the billions.

Margined short-sales against Strategy and its BTC, in this case, have actually stood out as a rare success story amid crypto’s margin mania of January 2026.

Leverage always works both ways. Although US margin debt at $1.28 trillion is an incredible headline, the real story is that leverage has seeped into every layer of crypto valuations — from listed securities in brokerage accounts to perpetual swap venues in tax havens.

With losses liquidating collateral and forcing cascading sales, each layer’s losses have been feeding the next since October.

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Citadel’s various hedge funds rise in February, beating the S&P 500 in a choppy month

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Citadel’s various hedge funds rise in February, beating the S&P 500 in a choppy month

Ken Griffin, CEO of Citadel LLC speaks on Squawk on the Street at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 21, 2026.

Oscar Molina | CNBC

Billionaire investor Ken Griffin’s various hedge funds at Citadel generated positive returns in February, navigating a volatile month for markets as macro uncertainty and disruption from artificial intelligence whipsawed asset prices.

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The firm’s flagship multistrategy Wellington fund rose 1.9% in February, bringing its year-to-date gain to 2.9%, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because the information is private.

Performance was broad-based across the fund, with all five of Citadel’s core strategies — commodities, equities, fixed income, credit and quantitative — finishing the month in positive territory, the person said

The tactical trading fund advanced 1.5% in February, lifting its year-to-date return to 3.5%, the person said. The equities fund gained 1.0% for the month and is now up 2.2% in 2026. Meanwhile, the global fixed-income fund climbed 1.6% in February, bringing its year-to-date increase to 2.9%, according to the person.

The S&P 500 fell 0.9% in February amid fresh selling pressure in AI-linked and software shares. Fears that automation could erode established business models and trigger mounting layoffs have dampened investor sentiment, raising concerns about potential spillover effects on the broader economy. The market fell under massive pressure again after the U.S. and Israel’s attack on Iran caused oil prices to surge.

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The firm declined to comment. Citadel oversaw $66 billion in assets under management as of Feb. 1.

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What Changed After 2023 Crypto Lending Crackdown

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Crypto Breaking News

Three years after withdrawing from the US retail market and agreeing to a $45 million settlement, Nexo has quietly rebooted its US presence with a markedly different architecture. The relaunch is not a flashy rebrand of the old Earn product; it is a structural shift toward regulated infrastructure, designed to satisfy a regulatory framework that favors licensed intermediaries over direct yield issuance. The company’s comeback comes as the broader US crypto lending landscape continues to evolve—tethered to state-by-state licensing, disclosures, and ongoing scrutiny of how retail users are exposed to yield and risk. This piece examines what changed, why regulators pushed back in 2023, and how the 2026 model is positioned within a shifting enforcement environment, while outlining what US users should monitor before engaging with crypto-backed loans or yield-like offerings.

Key takeaways

  • After paying a $45 million settlement in 2023 and exiting the market, Nexo has reentered the US with a redesigned product model focused on regulatory alignment rather than direct yield issuance.

  • The 2023 crackdown centered on unregistered securities concerns. The SEC alleged that Nexo’s Earn Interest Product functioned as an unregistered security, raising questions about retail yield marketing, transparency, custody practices and counterparty risk.

  • The new model relies on licensed US partners. Instead of directly offering yield products, Nexo now operates through regulated US intermediaries, including licensed entities and, where required, SEC-registered investment advisers.

  • The Bakkt partnership anchors the compliance strategy. By collaborating with Bakkt, a publicly traded US crypto firm with regulatory licenses, Nexo shifts from a direct issuer model to a partner-delivered framework embedded within regulated infrastructure. (EXCHANGE: BKKT)

  • The comeback is a structural overhaul rather than a mere timing shift. US users should watch for disclosures, custody arrangements, and the role of intermediaries as the model unfolds.

Three years after exiting the US retail market and settling with federal and state regulators, Nexo’s return signals a deliberate pivot. It is not simply a resumption of old products under a new banner; it is an attempt to align with a regulated ecosystem that emphasizes transparency, risk controls and clearly defined counterparty relationships. The 2026 framework appears designed to keep yield-generating services within a compliant infrastructure, reducing the likelihood of unregistered securities concerns that previously drew regulatory heat.

What changed is not only the timing or political backdrop; it is the way these products are designed, delivered and supervised. The company’s latest disclosures stress an architecture in which licensed intermediaries and, when required, investment advisers sit between the user and any yield-like opportunity. The shift is part of a broader rethinking of how centralized crypto lending should operate in the United States, especially after the industry experienced liquidity strains and opaque yield structures in the wake of 2022’s market stress.

As part of its updated model, Nexo states that it will offer crypto-backed loans and yield-generating products through a network of licensed US partners. Crypto-backed loans, which use digital assets as collateral, require careful structuring around loan-to-value thresholds and liquidation terms. By channeling these products through regulated entities, Nexo aims to provide a more robust framework for risk disclosures and custody arrangements, addressing some of the concerns that regulators highlighted in the 2023 action.

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The Bakkt partnership: Compliance by design

A central plank of the relaunch is the collaboration with Bakkt, a publicly traded US crypto firm with regulatory licenses. This partnership is meant to anchor the compliance framework by moving away from a direct issuer model to a partner-delivered ecosystem housed within regulated infrastructure. In practical terms, trading, custody, and advisory services would sit with licensed entities, while product components could be distributed through registered intermediaries. The approach is designed to satisfy regulator expectations for disclosures, risk management and clear line-of-sight into who is providing which service.

From a practical standpoint, the shift to a partner-led model reduces the direct exposure of retail customers to an issuer’s internal yield generation mechanics. Instead, the revenue and risk flow through an ecosystem of regulated participants, which in theory should improve oversight and reduce the potential conflicts of interest that can arise when an unregistered product is marketed to everyday investors. This approach also aligns with a broader trend in the US crypto industry: leveraging established, licensed infrastructure to deliver crypto services in a compliant manner rather than pushing the envelope on securities law through standalone product issuance.

It’s also worth noting that the regulatory backdrop remains nuanced. While enforcement actions shifted in late 2020s policy discussions, federal and state authorities continue to scrutinize offerings that resemble investment contracts or that blur the line between traditional banking and crypto lending. The Bakkt-backed model represents an attempt to thread the needle—offering access to lending and yield opportunities while embedding the activities within structures that regulators can monitor and regulate more effectively.

Beyond Bakkt, Nexo’s plan dovetails with ongoing regulatory discussions around custody, disclosures, and the sources of yield. The broader debate about how to classify crypto-based investment products—whether as securities, commodities or a new category—continues to shape the design of compliant offerings. For readers following the policy arc, recent coverage of how regulatory proposals could redefine commodities and securities remains relevant as the industry tests compliant wrappers for yield-related products.

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Market context

Market context: The US regulatory environment for crypto lending remains fragmented, with federal and state authorities evaluating risk, disclosures and investor protection. The 2023 crackdown highlighted concerns about retail access to high-yield products and theOpacity around how returns were generated. Since then, enforcement has shown signs of recalibration, with some actions winding down and others continuing, but the industry is increasingly experimenting with partner-led models that align with licensed infrastructure and enhanced disclosures.

Why it matters

The Nexo return matters because it could signal a broader shift in how offshore or non-US-centric crypto firms re-enter the United States. If more projects adopt partner-led models with licensed intermediaries, it may reduce the likelihood of abrupt withdrawals and punitive penalties that followed early-2020s enforcement actions. For users, the implication is clearer disclosures, potentially better custody arrangements, and a framework where the counterparty risk and revenue sources are more explicit.

From a builder’s perspective, the emphasis on regulated wrappers could spur innovation in compliant product design. Companies may be more willing to collaborate with licensed intermediaries and investment advisers to offer yield-oriented products within a transparent, auditable structure. Critics, however, will watch closely to ensure that “compliant by design” does not become a cover for reduced access to liquidity or less competitive yields. The distinction between compliant structure and risk-free products remains critical; even with licensing and custody safeguards, users should assess loan terms, LTV thresholds, and potential fees with a critical eye.

In the broader industry, Nexo’s comeback is part of a larger pattern of cross-border crypto firms seeking to re-engage with the US market through compliant, partner-led approaches. If the model proves viable, it could open the door for other international players to reenter through similar regulatory wrappers rather than direct issuance. In the near term, the emphasis on disclosure quality, risk management, and clarity around revenue sources will be pivotal in determining whether this structural shift sustains long-term legitimacy in the eyes of regulators and investors alike.

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What to watch next

  • Details of the licensing framework and the specific US partners involved in the model.

  • Regulatory approvals or filings at the federal or state level that may affect rollout timelines.

  • Progress of Bakkt’s integration and the distribution of product elements through licensed intermediaries.

  • Any new risk disclosures or consumer-protection measures required by regulators and how they are communicated to users.

  • Developments in US crypto lending regulation and how future policy could shape partner-led models.

Sources & verification

  • Nexo’s 2023 settlement with the SEC and NASAA over the Earn product; verify via the referenced coverage describing a $45 million settlement and the scope of the unregistered securities allegations.
  • Nexo’s 2026 return to the US through a press release announcing the relaunch and the partnership-driven structure.
  • Nexo’s public blog post about the updated US strategy for clients, detailing the shift to licensed intermediaries and advisers.
  • Cointelegraph reporting on related regulatory actions and market context, including coverage of Gemini Earn developments and broader enforcement trends.

Nexo’s US comeback: a structural overhaul anchored in regulated infrastructure

Nexo’s latest iteration presents a reimagined blueprint for delivering crypto-backed lending and yield opportunities within a regulated framework. The company emphasizes that the core idea—allowing users to borrow against digital assets and to earn yield through compliant means—remains intact. What has evolved is the wrapper around the product. The Earn-like offerings of the pre-2023 era were designed and marketed in ways regulators found problematic, particularly when returns were advertised to retail users without transparent disclosures or a clear line of counterparty risk. The 2023 settlement underscored these concerns and set the stage for a redesigned approach that prioritizes compliance from the outset.

In the 2026 structure, Nexo positions its services within the ecosystem of licensed US participants, with custody and advisory functions distributed across regulated entities. Bakkt (EXCHANGE: BKKT), a partner in this strategy, is intended to provide the regulated backbone that supports the delivery of crypto-backed loans and other yield-generating services. By embedding activities within a regulated infrastructure, the company aims to address the transparency and risk-management questions that regulators raised in 2023, including how returns are generated, who truly bears the risk, and how assets are custodied and safeguarded.

From a regulatory vantage point, the shift toward partner-led models reflects a broader trend in the industry: policymakers are seeking to separate product design from issuance while ensuring that every layer of the stack—custody, trading, lending, and advisory—operates under licensed oversight. The recalibration aligns with the idea that compliant structure can coexist with innovative financial services in the crypto space, provided clear disclosures, robust risk controls, and rigorous oversight are in place. While this does not guarantee a risk-free experience, it offers a pathway for legitimate participation in crypto lending that respects the nuanced regulatory landscape and the practical realities of retail investors seeking access to new financial instruments.

As the US regulatory conversation evolves, Nexo’s rehabilitation of its business model may serve as a blueprint for other firms seeking to re-enter through compliant channels rather than direct issuance of high-yield products. The ultimate test will be whether the heightened governance, partner alignment, and custody standards prove resilient to evolving rules and enforcement priorities. For users, the key takeaway remains vigilance: even within a compliant wrapper, understanding who the counterparty is, how assets are held, and how yields are generated remains essential as the market navigates a new era of governance and transparency in crypto finance.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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XOM Shares Reach Record Peak Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions

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XOM Stock Card

TLDR

  • Exxon Mobil’s share price reached a record $159.15, bringing its valuation to $635.43 billion.
  • The stock has surged 41.69% in the past twelve months.
  • Escalating Middle East conflicts — including a purported assault on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura facility and warnings regarding the Strait of Hormuz — are boosting oil prices.
  • XOM climbed 2% on Monday; ConocoPhillips (COP) posted the strongest performance with a 3.3% increase.
  • Market watchers anticipate capital flowing into major energy corporations including XOM, CVX, COP, and EOG in the immediate future.

Shares of Exxon Mobil (XOM) reached an unprecedented peak of $159.15 during Monday’s trading session on March 2, driven by intensifying geopolitical instability in the Middle East that sent crude oil prices climbing and lifted the entire energy sector.


XOM Stock Card
Exxon Mobil Corporation, XOM

The energy giant’s shares advanced approximately 2% during morning trading hours. This latest gain extends an impressive 41.69% rally over the trailing twelve months, elevating XOM’s total market value to $635.43 billion.

Other major energy players posted similar advances. Chevron (CVX) appreciated 1.1%, ConocoPhillips (COP) jumped 3.3%, while Occidental Petroleum (OXY) climbed 1.9%. Each of these stocks exhibited even stronger momentum during pre-market hours before moderating slightly after the opening bell.

The primary driver was a sharp intensification of Middle Eastern hostilities throughout the weekend. News emerged regarding an alleged assault on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, recognized as among the planet’s most significant oil export terminals. Additionally, three American service members lost their lives in Kuwait, while Israel maintained ongoing military exchanges with Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.

Iranian officials allegedly declared that vessels would be prohibited from transiting the Strait of Hormuz — a critical waterway responsible for transporting approximately 20% of global oil supplies. Although Tehran hasn’t officially blockaded the strait, mere speculation proved sufficient to influence commodity markets.

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Why Large-Cap Energy Names Are in Focus

Mizuho analyst Nitin Kumar indicated his expectation that market participants will “favor large, bellwether stocks” such as Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources (EOG), and Occidental Petroleum during this period of uncertainty. While smaller or more highly leveraged companies might present greater upside potential, institutional capital is projected to concentrate on industry leaders in the near term.

Alpine Macro strategist Dan Alamariu put it plainly: “Out-of-region energy stocks should gain disproportionately; they track oil and gas prices and would be the only available source of supply if the Persian Gulf is shut off.”

It bears mentioning that XOM’s remarkable ascent hasn’t been entirely smooth. Data from InvestingPro indicates the shares might be trading above their Fair Value benchmark, despite hovering near their 52-week peak.

Recent XOM Developments

Fourth-quarter earnings figures fell short of year-over-year comparisons but managed to narrowly exceed Wall Street expectations, supported by output expansion in Guyana and the U.S. Permian Basin operations. BMO Capital subsequently elevated its price objective to $155 while retaining a Market Perform stance. Freedom Capital Markets maintained its Sell recommendation with a $123 valuation target.

Regarding legal matters, ExxonMobil’s Australian subsidiary received an $11.3 million penalty from the Federal Court of Australia for disseminating misleading information about fuel products in Queensland during the period spanning August 2020 through July 2024.

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The corporation continues pursuing financial restitution for petroleum assets confiscated in Cuba over six decades ago, with judicial proceedings still underway.

XOM achieved its intraday peak of $159.15 on March 2, 2026.

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ProCap Buys 450 BTC, Repurchases Shares Below NAV

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ProCap Buys 450 BTC, Repurchases Shares Below NAV

Bitcoin treasury company ProCap Financial has added to its digital asset reserves as it steps up efforts to reduce the gap between its share price and underlying net asset value (NAV), underscoring a focused capital allocation strategy amid volatility in the crypto and equity markets.

ProCap disclosed Monday that it acquired 450 Bitcoin (BTC) during the recent market pullback, bringing its total holdings to 5,457 BTC. The additional purchase also helped reduce the company’s average cost basis per coin.

ProCap’s Bitcoin accumulation relative to price. Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET

At the same time, ProCap said it repurchased 782,408 of its shares over the past 10 days at prices trading significantly below its calculated NAV per share, narrowing the discount between market price and intrinsic value. The Nasdaq-traded shares were up 7.17% at last look in Monday morning trading, to $2.84 per share, according to Yahoo Finance.

ProCap emerged last year as a Bitcoin-native financial services company, raising more than $750 million in its initial funding, before going public through a SPAC merger.

The combined moves show ProCap increasing its Bitcoin exposure while attempting to address the discount between its share price and the value of its underlying assets. Buying back shares below NAV reduces the number of shares outstanding, which can increase NAV per share and potentially narrow the discount if market conditions stabilize.

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Related: NAV Collapse Creates Rare Opportunity in Bitcoin Treasurys — 10x Research

NAV compression tests Bitcoin treasury model

Bitcoin treasury companies have come under pressure amid the months-long downturn in digital asset markets, leading to a broad compression in net asset value (NAV) premiums across the sector.

NAV represents the total value of a company’s assets — in this case, primarily Bitcoin holdings — minus liabilities, divided by the number of shares outstanding. For Bitcoin treasury companies, investors often focus on multiple-to-NAV (mNAV), which measures how a company’s market capitalization compares to the value of its underlying Bitcoin per share.

When mNAV is above 1.0, a company’s shares trade at a premium to its net asset value; below 1.0, they trade at a discount. ProCap’s mNAV is currently around 0.24, according to BitcoinTreasuries.NET data.

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However, some industry observers question whether mNAV fully captures the value of Bitcoin treasury companies. NYDIG research head Greg Cipolaro has argued that the traditional mNAV framework may be incomplete because it does not account for operating businesses or strategic initiatives beyond simply holding digital assets.

Related: Crypto Biz: A Bitcoin treasury shareholder revolt