Crypto World
US senators call Binance ‘repeat offender’ over $2B Iran transfers
US senators have labeled Binance a “repeat offender” as they prepare to launch an inquiry into nearly $2 billion worth of crypto that was sent to Iran, raising doubts over the exchange’s commitment to a plea deal agreement with the Department of Justice.
Democrat Senator Richard Blumenthal, who represents the Subcommittee on Investigations, wrote to Binance CEO Richard Teng on Tuesday, asking him to provide information on the company’s role in sanction-dodging transactions to Iranian and Russian entities.
The letter reads: “Binance appears to have ignored warnings and recommendations to prevent Iranian money laundering schemes on its cryptocurrency exchange, allowing $1.7 billion in transfers to Iran. These transactions have helped prop up Iranian-linked terrorist organizations and illicit Russian oil sales.”
Read more: Binance demands the Wall Street Journal remove ‘damaging’ article
It also claims that Binance is revisiting the crimes of its past, specifically from 2023, when it was found guilty of charges including sanction violations stemming from crypto sent to Iranian entities.
“Binance is a repeat offender: it has long been aware that the Iranian regime and its terrorist proxies use its cryptocurrency platform as a convenient and reliable means to bypass international sanctions, anti-money laundering controls, and other banking restrictions,” it reads.
Blumenthal continues, “Instead of actually preventing illicit use, Binance has sought to evade accountability and influence the White House through lobbying and a financial partnership with World Liberty Financial (WLFI).”
The letter also claims, “The scale of the newly-revealed illicit transfers uncaught until nearly two billion dollars flowed to sanctioned entities and the unexplained firing of internal investigators call into question Binance’s compliance with American sanctions and banking laws, and its 2023 agreement to resolve the previous federal investigation.”
Blumenthal backs up his allegations by noting Binance’s deep connections with the Trump family and WLFI through promotions, and the housing of 85% of WLFi’s stablecoin USD1 in Binance accounts.
All this, he says, led to a successful “influence campaign” that secured Changpeng Zhao’s pardon and the dismissal of a lawsuit against Binance.
Binance reportedly didn’t stick to compliance measures
The Wall Street Journal, Fortune, and The New York Times have all reported on two Binance clients, Hexa Whale and Blessed Trust, acting as intermediaries for Iran’s Revolutionary Corps.
These accounts allowed Iran to launder funds and trade oil outside the traditional banking system and sanctions.
Blessed Trust repeatedly raised internal alerts at the firm. When investigators eventually discovered the extent of funds going to Iran’s government, they flagged it to Binance’s top execs before they were fired weeks later.
Richard Teng has denounced the latest article published by the WSJ as “defamatory” and “damaging,” claiming it ignored the responses given by Binance’s client.
Teng demanded that the WSJ take down its article and make corrections “immediately” or else it might take “further action.”
Read more: Iran’s central bank stacked $507M USDT last year, report
Binance claimed, “While you solicited our client’s position, your failure to reflect our client’s responses is inconsistent with your ethical obligations to ‘remain fair, accurate and impartial,’ and suggests an agenda already set, which does not amount to responsible journalism.”
The crypto exchange refuted how the WSJ framed the firings, noted that it did remove the flagged accounts after they were discovered, and disputed any suggestion that Binance had some sort of access and control over the Blessed account.
Blumenthal wants Binance to cough up documents
Blumenthal’s inquiry has ordered Binance to submit a trove of documents related to the dubious accounts, the internal reports filed by compliance investigators, use of Binance by Iranians, the use of Tether and USD1 in connection to criminals, Binance’s use in illegal oil sales, and details regarding the firing of its investigators.
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DOT rises as investors look toward a coming supply cut, though analysts say the move may be driven by market sentiment.
Polkadot’s native token DOT soared on Wednesday, Feb. 25, making it the top performer among large-cap cryptocurrencies just weeks before the network’s planned supply halving.
DOT is currently trading at $1.54, up about 23% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. The token’s market cap is near $2.6 billion, while daily trading volume has climbed above $420 million.
The rally comes as Polkadot approaches a major tokenomics change scheduled for March 14. The network plans to cut annual token issuance in half and cap the total supply at about 2.1 billion DOT. The move aims to lower inflation and make the token more scarce over time.
This upcoming change, called a “halving,” may be one reason the market is paying more attention to DOT. However, other analysts say the timing of the rally suggests it may be driven more by market sentiment than by Polkadot itself.
“We’re seeing double-digit green candles across the altcoin space. DOT just happens to be one of today’s leaders,” said Danny Nelson, a research analyst at Bitwise. “Nothing’s changed about Polkadot, its users, or its usefulness. There’s no new ‘news’ to catalyze a DOT repricing. I chalk DOT’s 20%+ surge up to market-wide speculation.”
Nelson added that investors are speculating that Bitcoin has reached its bottom. “If that’s so, then you’d certainly expect altcoins to rally, too,” he said. “You can see some positive indicators in Bitcoin’s 24-hour chart.”
Meanwhile, Brian Huang, co-founder of Glider, pointed out that trading activity has also spiked, but the reason for the move remains unclear. “The odd part is there is no clear catalyst for DOT surging today,” He said. “Because of this surge, both spot and perp volume are at their highest levels in the last three months.”
Huang added that while the supply change is important, it doesn’t take effect until mid-March, “so today’s timing feels unrelated.”
The U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) picked Revolut, Monee Financial Technologies, ReStabilise, and VVTX to test stablecoin issuance in its Regulatory Sandbox as regulators move toward a full rulebook.
The FCA said the cohort will trial stablecoin products in real-world conditions, with safeguards in place. The regulator plans to focus on issuance and review use cases that include payments, wholesale settlement and crypto trading. Testing begins in the first quarter of 2026, and the FCA said the results will feed into final stablecoin rules later in 2026.
“We are supporting U.K. stablecoin issuers to ensure they can be trusted for payments, settlement and trading,” said Matthew Long, director of payments and digital assets at the FCA. “It will benefit consumers and financial transactions and help to deliver the FCA’s strategy and the Government’s National Payments Vision.”
Industry pushes back
However, industry leaders have pushed back against the Bank of England’s (BoE) stablecoin caps, saying they limit innovation and prevent the U.K. from becoming the global hub it aims to be.
The BoE published a paper on Nov. 10, 2025, announcing stablecoin caps of between £5,000 and £20,000 for individuals and £1 million to £10 million for businesses. Armstrong asked U.K. users to sign a petition to Parliament for these caps to be reconsidered. The petition has 81,909 of the 100,000 required signatures.
“Stablecoin rules in the U.K. are being finalized, and are at risk of preventing the U.K. from being globally competitive in the digital economy,” Brian Armstrong, CEO and co-founder at Coinbase, wrote on X on Tuesday. He cited a Bank of England proposal to cap stablecoin holdings.
The government has repeatedly pledged to position London as a center for global digital asset activity. However, comprehensive legislation governing stablecoins and wider crypto activity is expected to be approved by parliament only later this year and won’t come into force until 2027.
The regulatory timeline contradicts U.K.’s goal of remaining globally competitive within the industry, Andrew MacKenzie, CEO of sterling stablecoin developer Agant, told CoinDesk in a recent interview at Consensus Hong Kong. He said the introduction of rules is not moving fast enough to support the aspirations of the global crypto hub.
“The U.K. has a long history of being a financial hub,” said Armstrong. “Embracing and encouraging innovation, especially when other countries are moving fast here, is important for maintaining that.”
The tokenized US Treasury market has surged by over $1 billion since the beginning of 2026, despite macroeconomic uncertainty and concerns over the US government’s growing national debt.
Tokenized US Treasurys are government debt instruments that are a form of real-world assets (RWAs) represented onchain by a token.
The market capitalization of tokenized Treasurys climbed to more than $10.8 billion at the time of writing from $8.9 billion on Jan. 1, according to data from RWA.xyz.
The tokenized US Treasury market has surged 50x since 2024, according to data from Token Terminal, aided by the March 2024 debut of asset manager BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL), which now has a market cap of more than $1.2 billion.
Tokenized US Treasurys continued to surge despite a broad crypto market downturn that began in October 2025, rising US government debt levels and investor uncertainty about the macroeconomic outlook in 2026.
Related: Tokenized RWAs climb 13.5% despite $1T crypto market drawdown
The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation to launch US Treasury tokenization service
The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC), which provides clearing and settlement services for global financial markets, announced plans in December 2025 to launch an asset tokenization service, beginning with US Treasurys.
DTCC will eventually expand the service to include a “broad spectrum” of assets, according CEO Frank La Salla.
“Following the tokenization of US Treasurys on the Canton network, DTCC anticipates that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and equities will come shortly thereafter,” La Salla said.
The DTCC is the largest clearinghouse in the world and settled $3.7 quadrillion in transaction volume in 2024, according to the company.
US Treasurys are considered the backbone of global and corporate finance due to the deep liquidity of the US Treasury market.
Corporations and institutional investors use short-term Treasurys, with a duration of one-year or less, as a proxy for physical cash.
The surge in tokenized US Treasurys and other US government debt could bring an influx of revenue to the blockchain networks where tokenized assets are minted, supporters of the technology say.
Magazine: TradFi is building Ethereum L2s to tokenize trillions in RWAs: Inside story
Bitcoin’s Stablecoin Supply Ratio has fallen to 9.36, a level often viewed as sidelined buying power ready to deploy.
Bitcoin’s Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has dropped to 9.36, a level historically associated with significant buying power waiting on the sidelines, but on-chain data shows this metric is flashing a false signal.
According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., the decline is being driven by capital leaving the ecosystem rather than stablecoin accumulation, which fundamentally alters how investors interpret this classic bullish indicator.
Liquidity Drain, Not Dry Powder
The SSR measures Bitcoin’s market capitalization against total stablecoin supply, with lower readings traditionally suggesting ample stablecoin liquidity available to purchase BTC. However, current conditions tell a different story.
In a February 25 brief, Adler pointed out that USDT capitalization peaked at $187.2 billion on December 30, 2025, and has since contracted to $183.6 billion, a $3.6 billion outflow over 60 days. Additionally, the 30-day change has remained negative for 34 consecutive days, now sitting at -$3.08 billion.
This matters because SSR’s mathematical decline stems from both components weakening simultaneously. Bitcoin’s market cap has dropped roughly 27% during this period, while stablecoin supply also contracted.
“Technically SSR falls mathematically because BTC market cap has collapsed, but the simultaneous contraction of USDT strips this signal of any bullish potential,” Adler explained.
The Estimated Leverage Ratio confirms the structural weakness, remaining flat around 0.219 across all exchanges for 90 days despite Bitcoin’s sharp correction. This plateau indicates speculative capital isn’t adding new risk, but crucially, isn’t shedding old risk either, thus creating potential for cascading liquidations on further downside.
Aged Supply, Absent Buyers
Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects the fragility described above, with the asset briefly falling below $63,000 on February 24 before recovering to current levels around $65,400. This price represents a dip of more than 25% across the last 30 days and nearly 27% over one year.
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HODL Waves data published recently also revealed a defensive market structure beneath the price action. Coins last moved 3 to 6 months ago now comprise approximately 26% of the circulating supply, up from 19% earlier this month.
These correspond to purchases near the November 2025 peak above $120,000, now held at a loss. Meanwhile, the 6 to 12 month cohort has grown to about 20%, while coins moved within the past month account for less than 10% of supply.
Furthermore, the Realized Cap Net Position Change confirms capital exiting the network, standing at -2.26% over 30 days with $33 billion in value compression since late November.
The distinction between SSR decline through outflow versus accumulation carries real implications. According to Adler, for a genuine trend reversal, two things must happen at the same time: the 30-day USDT change returning to sustained positive territory (confirming fresh capital inflow) and ELR beginning to rise during price stabilization. Until then, the analyst says Bitcoin’s low SSR represents not opportunity, but the mathematical residue of capital departure.
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The investment will bring Tether’s wallet tools to millions of users.
Stablecoin issuer Tether has made a $200 million strategic investment in Whop, an online marketplace, as it looks to expand stablecoin payments into more real-world use cases.
Tether’s USDT stablecoin currently has a market cap of about $183 billion, according to DeFiLlama data, making it the largest circulating stablecoin worldwide.
Whop co-founder Steven Schwartz said in a post on X that Tether’s investment pushed the company’s valuation to $1.6 billion. As part of the deal, Whop will integrate Tether’s Wallet Development Kit (WDK), allowing users to send and receive payments in stablecoins like USDT.
“In partnership with Tether, we will be scaling infrastructure in real-time for new business models as they emerge across the globe,” Schwartz said on X. “The job is just getting started.”
The deal is part of Tether’s broader push to expand beyond crypto trading and into everyday finance. Specifically, Tether will gain exposure to a platform with over 18 million users and about $3 billion in yearly payouts. Moreover, Whop’s transaction volume has been growing around 25% month over month, according to an official announcement.
“Stablecoins and wallets become most powerful when they are embedded directly into people’s lives, supporting their businesses, activities, families, and individual stories,” Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said, per the announcement. “Our investment in Whop proudly reflects Tether’s focus on supporting real economic activity by providing efficient digital dollar and wallet infrastructure that can scale to billions of people, across every continent.”
The new funding will help Whop expand into Latin America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region, while also developing new financial tools and AI features for its users. The investment also builds on Tether’s recent expansion efforts, including the launch of its regulated U.S. stablecoin USAT last month.
Three major DeFi tokens — Morpho (MORPHO), Uniswap (UNI), and Jupiter (JUP) — rallied sharply over the past week after Wall Street firms Apollo Global Management, BlackRock, and ParaFi Capital struck landmark deals to acquire direct stakes in onchain financial infrastructure.
The moves signal a structural shift, as traditional asset managers move beyond crypto exposure and begin acquiring governance and economic ownership in decentralized trading and lending rails.
Morpho Surges after Apollo Agrees to Acquire 90 Million Tokens
Morpho posted the strongest rally after Apollo Global Management announced a cooperation agreement to acquire up to 90 million MORPHO tokens over four years. The purchase represents roughly 9% of total supply.
The deal gives Apollo governance exposure and positions the firm to support lending markets built on Morpho’s infrastructure.
Morpho currently secures about $5.8 billion in total value locked, making it one of the largest onchain lending platforms.
Investors responded quickly. MORPHO is up nearly 30% in a week.
Uniswap Jumps as BlackRock buys UNI and Integrates Tokenized Fund
Uniswap rallied after BlackRock confirmed it purchased UNI tokens alongside integrating its $2 billion tokenized Treasury fund, BUIDL, onto Uniswap’s institutional trading infrastructure.
The integration allows institutional investors to trade tokenized Treasury exposure using Uniswap’s decentralized exchange rails.
Meanwhile, BlackRock’s UNI purchase gives the asset manager governance influence over the protocol that now hosts its fund.
UNI surged sharply late in the week, rallying nearly 20%.
ParaFi Invests $35 Million directly Into JUP
Jupiter also rallied after ParaFi Capital invested $35 million directly into the protocol’s JUP token.
Unlike typical venture deals, ParaFi purchased tokens at market price with lockups and warrants for future purchases.
The deal marks Jupiter’s first institutional investment and aligns ParaFi with the platform’s expansion into lending, stablecoins, and institutional trading infrastructure.
JUP rose from approximately $0.144 to $0.163 during the week.
Together, the deals highlight a broader trend. Instead of simply buying crypto assets, Wall Street firms are acquiring governance stakes in core DeFi protocols.
This transition signals growing institutional confidence in onchain financial rails and helps explain the strong price reactions across lending and trading infrastructure tokens.
Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to a weekly high of $69,500 on Wednesday, surging from lows near $62,400 in less than 24 hours. The rebound aligned with a renewed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and firmer macroeconomic sentiment after the recent US policy signals helped steady broader risk markets.
Derivatives data shows that BTC’s open interest is falling and funding rates are staying relatively contained, indicating the move was largely driven by spot demand rather than a buildup of leveraged positioning.
Bitcoin receives a macro boost and a positive ETF flip
US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday evening framed the first 12-months of his leadership as an “economic turnaround for the ages,” highlighting falling mortgage rates and a 1.7% decline in core inflation over the final three months of 2025.
Markets interpreted the remarks as a sign of reduced near-term policy uncertainty following tariff and Supreme Court volatility, lifting the risk appetite across equities and crypto.
The US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $257.7 million in net inflows on Feb. 24, ending five consecutive weeks of redemptions totaling $3.8 billion. Fidelity drew roughly $83 million, and BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust added close to $79 million.
Related: Bitcoin daily gains near 5% as analysis eyes bullish ‘rotation’ from gold
Bitcoin futures data clears excess downside risk
As Bitcoin trades above $69,000, futures data shows that its aggregated open interest has stabilized around 235,167 BTC, after previously reaching levels above 240,000 BTC earlier in the week.
The drop in open interest suggests that the excess leveraged positioning has already been flushed out during the recent volatility.
At the same time, aggregated funding rates remain slightly negative at -0.0037%. Negative funding indicates that short positions are still paying longs, signaling that traders are not aggressively chasing upside exposure despite the price rally.
This combination of cooling open interest and negative-to-neutral funding points to a market that has reset leverage rather than overheated. The rally toward $69,000 appears to be occurring without an aggressive buildup of long positioning.
The cumulative volume delta (CVD) has edged higher, showing that spot buyers are stepping in and are one of the primary drivers of this rally.
Market analyst BackQuant noted that derivatives activity is still playing a large role, and options data shows that dealers, the firms that sell options and hedge their exposure, are holding what’s known as positive gamma.
When gamma is positive, dealers tend to buy as the price falls and sell as the price rises to stay hedged. That behavior can smooth out volatility and slow sharp breakouts in either direction.
Likewise, trader LP also pointed to BTC’s order book dynamics around the $60,000–$63,000 region, where strong bid pressure previously absorbed selling. Since tapping that zone, the price has expanded roughly 8% to the upside.
The trader added that if sell pressure builds again at these levels, it may signal a slowdown in buy-side aggression and trigger another lower reversal.
Related: Anchorage buys STRC as Wall Street shorts mount against Saylor’s Bitcoin proxy
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- Aptos price jumped more than 20% to break above $1 on Wednesday.
- The altcoin’s rally followed a sharp bounce for Bitcoin, which rose to above $69,000.
- Risk assets gained ahead of Nvidia earnings.
Aptos (APT) is trading around $1.02 amid a broader altcoin uptick, with the token posting a notable 20% surge on February 25, 2026.
The uptick puts APT on the cusp of a breakout above the psychological level and aligns with positive signals from major altcoins. Intraday volume jumped 54% to over $105 million as bulls extended gains from the all-time lows of $0.79 reached on February 23, 2026.
Aptos price surges as Bitcoin storms to $69,000
A look at the broader market suggests momentum during US trading hours came amid sharp gains for the bellwether digital asset Bitcoin.
The surge to above $69,400, with BTC up nearly 8% in the past 24 hours, came as stocks rose ahead of Nvidia’s earnings. Cryptocurrencies also rose as markets reacted to US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address.
As Bitcoin registered its biggest intraday jump since Feb. 6, Ethereum rose 11% to above $2,064. Polkadot, Avalanche, Uniswap and Litecoin posted double-digit gains.
📈 Following @realDonaldTrump‘s State of the Union, crypto markets have SKYROCKETED to their best daily collective jumps of the year. The altcoin charge breakout is being led by notables like $DOT (+23%), $UNI (+19%), $AVAX (+17%), $LINK (+15%), $NEAR (+15%), & $LTC (+14%). pic.twitter.com/NlHMjtHzQu
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) February 25, 2026
Traders remained cautious, though, with analysts at Glassnode noting that the market awaits conviction.
“$BTC is range-bound between key valuation anchors, with $60k–$69k absorbing sell pressure.
Profitability and breadth are fading, spot and ETF flows stay negative, and leverage has reset,” the platform posted on X.
But gains for BTC and ETH seem to have buoyed Aptos, whose price momentum is strengthened by recent ecosystem growth.
Other than an uptick in daily transactions, the blockchain platform is among 30 chains to go live on Bitwise’s staking solution.
Interest in real-world assets (RWA) and stablecoin adoption is also key to Aptos’ growth.
Prices are up amid these factors.
Aptos price analysis
Technical indicators show Aptos price off oversold territory, with RSI near 46 to signal potential for a relief rally toward the $1.20-$1.45 resistance levels.
The MACD indicator also signals upside momentum, and rising volume suggests bulls could sustain a breakout above $1.
However, the token’s position below key moving averages means bearish sentiment remains.
On the daily chart, APT is below 50-day SMA at $1.33 while the 100 SMA offers short-term resistance around $1.62.
A sustained move above $1 would invalidate the seller dominance trend. Buyers will also benefit if BTC extends gains to $70k or higher.
However, if downside pressure resumes, with the top digital asset giving up gains, Aptos could drop to recent lows around $0.80. Likely to come into view could also be October 2025 lows of $0.74.
The world’s largest BNB treasury company has crashed 95% from its high last year and is blaming the family office of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) for a “secret side agreement.”
On Tuesday, it issued a press release demanding that CZ’s YZi Labs disclose a confidentiality provision between his family office and 10X Capital Asset Management LLC, the lead party in the company’s July 2025 PIPE transaction that coincided with its 52-week and multi-year high of $82.88 per share.
Shares of CEA Industries, which changed Nasdaq ticker symbols from VAPE to BNC — an attempt to pivot the company’s brand to a BNB Network Company — now trade at $3.88 after losing 95% of their value over the past seven months.
Before becoming a BNB treasury company during the height of the digital asset treasury (DAT) mania in the summer of 2025, CEA Industries was operating Canadian vape retailers.
That business model, as well as several business models and pivots including a previous ticker change from CEAD to VAPE, failed to reverse a multi-year decline in its common stock from a $873 peak in 2018 to under $8 by the time of its acquisition of 33 Canadian vape locations.
By July 2025, the company had yet again began looking for a new trend.
It found a suitor in Cantor Fitzgerald, founded by US Commerce Secretary and Jeffrey Epstein’s former neighbor Howard Lutnick, who acted as the lead financial advisor to 10X Capital and sole placement agent to CEA Industries.
Read more: Binance demands the Wall Street Journal remove ‘damaging’ article
Another Cantor Fitzgerald-advised treasury flop
Cantor Fitzgerald helped raise capital for other DATs like Twenty One, Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company, and Nakamoto.
In fact, the same 10X Capital that led CEA Industries’ $500 million PIPE also served as financial advisor to Nakamoto, which has declined 99% in value from its May 2025 peak. Twenty One is down 89% since May, and Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company is down 37% since July.
Despite its financial devastation, CEA Industries’ 95% decline is somewhat unremarkable among DATs.
10X Capital acted as CEA Industries’ BNB asset manager “with the support of YZi Labs.” According to CEA Industries, that support is potentially problematic, and it wants to force disclosure of how, exactly, CZ’s family office “supported” 10X Capital’s management of BNB.
10X Capital’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Russell Read became CIO of CEA Industries shortly after the PIPE closed.
By September, the company had relegated him to a non-executive position and by the end of the year, he’d resigned entirely.
Almost everyone lost in BNB treasury debut
Some of the biggest crypto funds invested in CEA Industries via the PIPE, including Pantera Capital, GSR, Arrington Capital, Borderless, Blockchain.com, Arche Capital, Hypersphere Capital, Kenetic, and the founders of BitFury.
There are two sides to every story.
For its part, YZi Labs has contested CEA Industries’ characterization of the “secret side agreement” as recently as this week.
YZi Labs wants CEA Industries to retract what it calls false claims about that agreement, and it’s requested directors Hans Thomas and David Namdar recuse themselves from asset management discussions.
It also wants to solicit stockholder written consents for board changes.
Amid the infighting, CEA’s common stock has fallen 41% year to date, 67% over the past 12 months, 95% from its 52-week high, and 98% over the past five years.
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NVIDIA dominates the AI chip market. But dominance doesn’t always mean the best risk-reward. With institutional money flow turning cautious, tariff headwinds on Taiwan-made chips, and a valuation demanding 60%+ sustained growth — smart money is looking at other AI stocks.
Here are three AI stocks that could offer a sharper setup, both technical and fundamental, heading into March 2026. And watch out for a high risk, honorary pick, right at the end.
How is Nvidia (NVDA) Looking?
NVIDIA, the largest holding in the Technology sector (XLK) at 15.79% weightage at press time, reports its Q4 FY2026 earnings on February 25, post-market close.
Wall Street expects high numbers, but recent history shows that hasn’t been enough. After Q3’s $57 billion beat, the stock barely moved and has traded sideways since.
Despite being up over 50% year-on-year, NVIDIA’s chart has been trading inside a descending channel since late October. At press time, the price appears to be breaking out of this channel — but the breakout needs confirmation.
A sustained hold above $195, followed by a move through $203 and $212, would flip the structure bullish.
However, if the breakout fails, the $190 and $179 zones have acted as near-term support, with deeper downside risk below that.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) — which tracks whether institutional money is flowing into or out of a stock — remains a concern.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator has remained below the zero line since mid-January, indicating net money continues to leave despite the price recovery.
If CMF fails to flip positive (like mid-January), the price recovery loses its institutional backing, and the descending channel could reassert itself.
On the fundamental side, NVIDIA manufactures 100% of its GPUs through TSMC in Taiwan. This fully exposes it to Section 232 semiconductor import tariffs, raising chip costs.
China’s revenue has collapsed under US export restrictions, cutting off the world’s second-largest AI market.
And at 35x EV/EBITDA (a measure of how expensive a stock is relative to its earnings power), NVIDIA needs 60%+ sustained growth just to justify its current price. With these risks in play, three other AI stocks may offer a sharper setup into March.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)
TSMC (TSM), the first stock on the list, is up nearly 100% year-on-year. That outpaces even NVIDIA’s 50% gain and the reason is straightforward. TSMC manufactures over 90% of the world’s most advanced chips.
Every NVIDIA GPU, Broadcom ASIC, and AMD processor runs on TSMC fabrication. It doesn’t matter who wins the AI chip race. TSMC builds for all of them.
Here’s what most investors miss. TSMC controls NVIDIA’s cost structure. It raised prices 10-20% on advanced chips recently. Customers paid without hesitation as no alternative exists.
Intel is generations behind, and Samsung has yield problems. When TSMC raises prices, its margins expand. When NVIDIA pays those prices, its margins shrink.
And unlike NVIDIA, TSMC doesn’t pay import tariffs. Tariffs hit the importer, not the exporter. TSMC exports. NVIDIA imports. Plus, TSMC’s new Arizona fabs produce US-made chips — completely tariff-free.
At 18x EV/EBITDA — a measure of price relative to core earnings — TSMC costs nearly half of NVIDIA’s 35x. Last quarter, 1,945 institutions opened new positions, worth $49 billion, one of the highest inflows among AI stocks.
On the chart, TSM trades inside an ascending channel since mid-December. A breakout, which is almost there, could target $470 — over 20% upside, starting in March itself.
CMF reads 0.21, above zero, confirming steady institutional inflow. A push past 0.28 would strengthen the breakout signal.
On the downside, $386 is critical support. A correction, likely triggered by the Taiwan-specific geopolitical tensions, could test $362 or $346. Only a sustained break below $346 turns the structure neutral.
Alphabet (GOOGL)
This AI stock might throw a surprise. On the daily chart, Alphabet looks weak. It’s mostly flat year-to-date. Down 7% over the past month. The price is forming a head and shoulders pattern with a downward sloping neckline. But here’s the interesting part.
Since hitting the right shoulder on February 23, the price has tried to rebound. It now sits near the right shoulder level. A break above $319 would weaken the bearish pattern. It turns the structure neutral.
Above $349, the short-term bearish thesis gets completely invalidated.
The CMF tells a different story than the price. While NVIDIA’s CMF remains negative — showing institutional money leaving — Alphabet’s CMF has turned positive at 0.09.
Similar to TSM, money is flowing in despite the weak price action. A sustained move above 0.19 would confirm institutional accumulation is carrying into Q1 2026.
Even in the last quarter, 520 institutions opened new positions averaging $74 million each.
The fundamental edge is unique. Google doesn’t just use AI — it sells cheaper AI infrastructure to NVIDIA’s own customers. Its Ironwood TPUs cost roughly $15,000. NVIDIA’s GPUs cost $30,000-$40,000.
Google Cloud grew 48% last quarter. Operating margin jumped from 17.5% to 30.1% in one year.
And as a software and services company, Alphabet has zero tariff exposure — unlike NVIDIA’s 100%.
If the price breaks below $286, the bearish pattern confirms. That could push prices toward $276 and lower levels — likely triggered by broader tech selling or disappointing Cloud growth guidance.
But the CMF divergence and institutional flows suggest smart money is positioning for a reversal, not a breakdown.
Last on the list but not the least. This AI stock is up 64% year-on-year but flat over the last seven days.
An inverse head and shoulders pattern is forming now. This is a classic reversal structure, which can change the short-term weakness. The AVGO price is now moving toward the neckline at $350.
A breakout above that level opens the path for a near 20% move — potentially pushing AVGO close to $420. That breakout window aligns with early March, right around its Q1 FY2026 earnings on March 4. A beat-and-raise on March 4 could be the trigger that cracks the neckline of the bullish pattern.
Here’s what makes Broadcom a direct NVIDIA challenger. AI is shifting from the training phase to inference — running models at scale for millions of users. NVIDIA GPUs dominate training. But for inference, custom ASICs are 3-5x more energy-efficient and cost way less.
Broadcom designs these ASICs for Google, Meta, ByteDance, and now OpenAI. As inference scales, Broadcom is positioned for the bigger phase ahead, courtesy of this AI shift.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) — which measures buying and selling pressure using both price and volume — confirms accumulation on dips.
Since February 10, while prices trended lower, MFI has trended higher. And that’s a bullish divergence. MFI currently sits around 67, still below the overheated 80 threshold. Room to run. This means, possibly retail is picking up AVGO shares at a clip.
On the downside, $314 is critical. A break below would weaken the bullish setup. Under $295, the inverse head and shoulders invalidates entirely. A broader AI spending slowdown or weaker-than-expected March 4 guidance could trigger that scenario.
Honorable Mention: Palantir Technologies (PLTR) — The Risky Bet
Palantir didn’t make the main list of AI stocks, courtesy of the high valuation risk.
But the chart is flashing reversal signals worth watching. Between February 5 and 24, the price made a lower low, yet the relative strength index (RSI), a momentum indicator, made a higher low. That’s a classic bullish divergence.
The CMF confirms it. Between February 9 and 25, prices trended down while CMF trended up. Two separate indicators pointing toward bullishness.
If $126 holds as a base, the first target is $143. Beyond that, $170 — a strong resistance from early January — becomes the key level.
Fundamentally, Palantir is one of the few AI companies turning AI into real revenue. Last quarter delivered $1.41 billion — up 70% year-on-year. It carries zero debt, $4 billion in cash, and like the three main picks, zero tariff exposure. Pure software.
Here’s the catch. PLTR trades at over 200x P/E — meaning investors are paying $200 for every $1 the company earns. That’s a price tag that assumes everything goes perfectly.
Any stumble in growth, and the stock could fall hard. Moreover, losing $126 invalidates the entire setup.
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