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Vitalik Buterin Warns Prediction Markets Are Becoming Overly Speculative

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Vitalik Buterin Warns Prediction Markets Are Becoming Overly Speculative

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin is voicing concern about the current direction of prediction markets, arguing that the sector is drifting away from useful economic tools and toward short-term betting.

Key Takeaways:

  • Vitalik Buterin warns prediction markets are drifting toward short-term speculation and betting.
  • He proposes using onchain markets and AI to hedge everyday expenses and inflation risk.
  • Supporters say platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi can also serve as decentralized market intelligence.

In a recent post on X, Buterin said many platforms are “over-converging” into products centered on rapid price wagers and speculative trading rather than practical applications.

He warned that the trend risks turning prediction markets into little more than gambling venues instead of systems that support real-world economic planning.

Buterin Says Prediction Markets Should Shift From Betting To Hedging

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Rather than focusing on event betting or short-term financial outcomes, Buterin suggested prediction markets should evolve into hedging mechanisms designed to protect consumers and businesses from price volatility.

He outlined a model in which onchain prediction markets work alongside large language models (LLMs).

The system would track price indices across categories of goods and services, such as food, housing or transportation, separated by region.

A user’s personal AI assistant would analyze spending patterns and construct a tailored portfolio of prediction-market positions representing expected future expenses.

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The idea is to help households and companies offset rising costs. Individuals could hold traditional investments for growth while maintaining a basket of prediction-market shares tied to living expenses, creating a buffer against inflation in fiat currencies.

Supporters of prediction markets say the technology already has broader value beyond speculation.

These platforms crowdsource expectations about events, financial trends and economic conditions, producing signals some researchers argue can rival polling data.

Markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have gained traction by offering alternative views on political and economic developments.

Advocates say they provide a decentralized source of intelligence that is harder to shape by centralized narratives.

State Opposition to Prediction Markets Builds Over Consumer Concerns

State opposition to prediction markets has been building for months.

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In 2025, the SWC urged the CFTC to prohibit sports event contracts, arguing that such products bypass state safeguards such as age verification, responsible gaming rules and anti-money laundering requirements.

As reported, a new legislation to limit the interactions between government officials and the prediction markets is being supported by more than 30 Democrats in the US House of Representatives, including former Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The lure behind new restrictions is a controversial Polymarket bet, which started as a bet of $32,000 but eventually became more than $400,000 shortly before the unexpected detention of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

The bill proposed by the New York Representative Ritchie Torres is the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026.

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Last month, Kalshi opened a new office in Washington, D.C., as it ramps up efforts to shape federal and state policy amid growing scrutiny of its products across the United States.

The company also hired veteran political strategist John Bivona as its first head of federal government relations.

The post Vitalik Buterin Warns Prediction Markets Are Becoming Overly Speculative appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Trump-Linked Truth Social Files for Bitcoin, Ethereum and CRO Staking ETFs

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Trump-Linked Truth Social Files for Bitcoin, Ethereum and CRO Staking ETFs

Trump Media and Technology Group is expanding its push into digital assets, filing for two new cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds tied to Bitcoin, Ether and the Cronos ecosystem.

Key Takeaways:

  • Trump Media filed for two crypto ETFs tracking Bitcoin, Ether and the Cronos token.
  • The Cronos fund would include staking rewards with Crypto.com providing custody and services.
  • The move deepens ties between US politics and the growing crypto investment sector.

Truth Social Funds, the ETF arm of the company behind the Truth Social platform, submitted applications Friday for the “Truth Social Bitcoin and Ether ETF” and the “Truth Social Cronos Yield Maximizer ETF.”

The filings mark another step in the growing overlap between US politics and the crypto investment industry.

Truth Social ETFs Target Bitcoin, Ether and CRO With Staking Rewards

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The proposed Bitcoin and Ether ETF would track the performance of the two largest cryptocurrencies, reportedly using an allocation weighted toward Bitcoin.

The Cronos product, meanwhile, would provide exposure to CRO, the native token of the Crypto.com-linked Cronos blockchain, while also offering staking rewards to investors.

Crypto.com is partnering with Trump Media on the products and is expected to provide custody, liquidity and staking services.

CEO Kris Marszalek said the company supports the funds and plans to enable trading access once they launch.

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The new filings follow a previous agreement between the firms to introduce crypto investment products and continue a broader strategy by Trump Media to establish a presence in digital finance.

The company had already sought approval for a standalone Bitcoin ETF and a multi-asset crypto fund that included several major tokens.

The ETF market is increasingly competitive. Asset managers such as BlackRock, Fidelity and Grayscale already operate widely traded Bitcoin investment vehicles, giving investors indirect exposure to crypto without holding tokens directly.

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Trump Media has also signaled interest in integrating blockchain beyond ETFs.

The company recently said it intends to distribute a new digital token to shareholders on the Cronos network and previously disclosed plans for a corporate crypto treasury involving CRO.

The expansion has drawn political scrutiny, with critics arguing the president’s business ventures could create conflicts of interest, particularly as regulatory decisions affecting digital assets are debated in Washington.

Last year, Trump Media also announced a partnership with Crypto.com to bring prediction markets to the social media platform, positioning it as the first publicly traded social media company to integrate such technology.

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Bitcoin Loses 25,000 Millionaire Addresses Under Trump

As reported, Bitcoin has shed roughly 25,000 millionaire addresses in the year since Donald Trump returned to the White House, even as US policy shifted toward a more crypto-friendly stance.

Blockchain data shows the number of addresses holding at least $1 million in BTC fell about 16% year over year, suggesting regulatory optimism has not translated into sustained on-chain wealth growth.

The pullback was less severe among the largest holders. Addresses with more than $10 million in Bitcoin declined by about 12.5%, indicating that top-tier investors were better able to withstand price volatility, while wallets near the millionaire threshold were more exposed to market swings.

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Much of the increase in Bitcoin millionaire addresses occurred before Trump took office, driven by a late-2024 rally fueled by election-related optimism and expectations of deregulation.

The post Trump-Linked Truth Social Files for Bitcoin, Ethereum and CRO Staking ETFs appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Mirae Asset to Buy 92% Stake in Korbit for $93M

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Crypto Breaking News

Mirae Asset Consulting, an affiliate of South Korea’s Mirae Asset Group, is moving to take control of local crypto exchange Korbit. In a regulatory filing, the company agreed to acquire 26.9 million Korbit shares for 133.48 billion won, roughly $93 million, securing a 92.06% ownership stake in the exchange. The purchase will be paid entirely in cash, and the deal has the board’s approval as of February 5. Completion is expected within seven business days after all contractual closing conditions are satisfied, underscoring a rapid move to consolidate a regulated digital-asset business within Korea’s evolving crypto infrastructure. The filing notes Mirae Asset intends to secure future growth drivers through digital-asset (virtual-asset) businesses.

Key takeaways

  • Mirae Asset Consulting agrees to buy 26.9 million Korbit shares for 133.48 billion won, gaining about 92.06% ownership in the exchange, with cash as the payment method.
  • The acquisition received board approval on February 5, and is slated to close within seven business days after contractual closing conditions are satisfied.
  • Korbit’s current ownership structure includes about 60.5% held by NXC and Simple Capital Futures, with SK Square owning roughly 31.5%.
  • Korbit reported 8.7 billion won in revenue and 9.8 billion won in net profit in its latest fiscal year, reversing prior losses.
  • The exchange operates with a full license and established compliance infrastructure, potentially making it an attractive vehicle for a financial group seeking regulated exposure to digital assets.

Tickers mentioned:

Market context: The deal unfolds within Korea’s tightly regulated crypto landscape, where Upbit and Bithumb dominate daily trading volumes, and Korbit remains a smaller player by comparison. Data cited by CoinGecko shows Korbit’s roughly $59.9 million in 24-hour trading activity versus Upbit’s about $2.16 billion and Bithumb’s around $1.36 billion. The transaction signals ongoing consolidation among domestic exchanges as traditional financial groups pursue regulated access to digital-asset markets.

Market context: The broader environment in Korea has long featured a push toward licensed operations and stronger compliance frameworks, with regulators scrutinizing promotions and business practices in the sector. The move by a major asset manager to take control of a licensed exchange aligns with a broader trend of institutional players seeking regulated exposure to crypto markets rather than unregistered platforms.

Why it matters

The planned acquisition marks a notable shift in Korea’s crypto ecosystem, illustrating how conventional financial groups are intensifying their strategic bets on digital-asset infrastructure. Mirae Asset’s intention to leverage Korbit’s established license and compliance capabilities could accelerate the exchange’s product, risk controls, and customer onboarding processes, potentially translating into stronger operating leverage for the platform as part of a larger asset-management and fintech ecosystem.

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For Korbit, the deal provides a clear path to liquidity and alignment with a major financial conglomerate, potentially enabling enhanced interoperability with traditional banking channels and institutional-grade custody solutions. The company’s reported 8.7 billion won in revenue and 9.8 billion won in net profit in its most recent fiscal year reflect a profitability trajectory that may have attracted Mirae Asset’s interest in expanding regulated, scalable digital-asset services. Korbit’s ownership structure—where NXC and Simple Capital Futures hold a majority stake alongside SK Square—suggests a transition moment that could reshape the exchange’s governance and strategic direction under new majority ownership.

From a market perspective, the deal emphasizes the continuing maturation of Korea’s crypto market, where licensed venues like Korbit coexist with larger platforms and regulatory scrutiny. The emphasis on a cash deal and rapid closing also signals a preference for definitive, trustee-like control structures to manage risk and ensure a swift integration path for regulatory-compliant digital-asset activities. As regulatory expectations evolve, the success of Mirae Asset’s investment could hinge on how smoothly Korbit can integrate into a broader digital-asset strategy and how it adapts to evolving compliance standards and product requirements.

What to watch next

  • The contractual closing conditions must be satisfied, with settlement anticipated within seven business days after those requirements are met.
  • The integration of Korbit into Mirae Asset’s digital-asset framework and any organizational changes at the exchange.
  • Regulatory confirmations or conditions that may accompany the closing process and any post-merger compliance reviews.

Sources & verification

  • DART filing: rcpNo=20260213002679, detailing the cash acquisition and ownership thesis.
  • Korbit’s financials: revenue of 8.7 billion won and net profit of 9.8 billion won in the latest fiscal year.
  • Korbit ownership: NXC and Simple Capital Futures ~60.5%, SK Square ~31.5%.
  • Trading volume context: Upbit (~$2.16 billion) and Bithumb (~$1.36 billion) in 24-hour activity; Korbit ~ $59.9 million, per CoinGecko data.

What the move means for Korea’s crypto landscape

Mirae Asset’s Korbit bet signals a broader push into regulated crypto markets

The transaction represents a decisive step in the ongoing consolidation of Korea’s digital-asset infrastructure, where license and compliance play a critical role in determining strategic value. Mirae Asset’s cash offer and rapid cadence may set a precedent for other traditional financial groups evaluating similar moves, especially those seeking to bolster exposure to regulated crypto ecosystems without bearing the full operational burden of building a compliant platform from scratch. As the ecosystem evolves, Korbit’s improved access to Mirae Asset’s capital and infrastructure could translate into more robust risk controls, enhanced product offerings, and greater interoperability with mainstream financial services.

In the near term, stakeholders will be watching how Korbit navigates post-acquisition governance, how the integration aligns with Mirae Asset’s broader digital-asset strategy, and whether the deal serves as a catalyst for other exchanges to pursue strategic partnerships or consolidations. For investors and users, the development underscores the ongoing transition of crypto services from scrappy startups to regulated, institution-friendly platforms—an arc that could influence liquidity, product quality, and regulatory clarity across Korea’s crypto market.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Mirae Asset to Buy Controlling Stake at Korea’s Korbit Exchange for $93M

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Mirae Asset to Buy Controlling Stake at Korea’s Korbit Exchange for $93M

Mirae Asset Consulting, an affiliate of South Korean multinational financial services company Mirae Asset Group, has agreed to acquire a controlling stake in local crypto exchange Korbit.

The company plans to purchase 26.9 million shares of Korbit for 133.48 billion won (about $93 million), a transaction that would give it a 92.06% ownership interest in the exchange, according to a Friday regulatory filing. The payment will be made entirely in cash

Mirae Asset said the purpose of the acquisition is “to secure future growth drivers through digital-asset (virtual-asset) businesses,” per the filing. The company’s board approved the decision on Feb. 5, while reports on the planned deal initially surfaced last year.

The transaction has not yet closed. The settlement will occur once contractual closing conditions are satisfied, with completion expected within seven business days after those requirements are met.

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Related: How a Bitcoin promotion error triggered a regulatory reckoning in South Korea

Korbit returns to profit after sale talks

Korbit reported 8.7 billion won in revenue and 9.8 billion won in net profit in its most recent fiscal year, reversing losses recorded in prior years.