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Was Jane Street behind the bitcoin crash? A deep dive into why that theory may not not hold

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Bitcoin isn’t losing to gold. It is navigating a liquidity squeeze that the yellow metal never had: Asia Morning Briefing

Bitcoin has dropped like clockwork every morning after the New York market open since late 2025, and crypto fans on X are accusing Jane Street for causing it.

A theory on X has gotten retail participants pointing to the firm for single-handedly driving the asset from $125,000 to $62,000 in recent months.

However, market data and inner workings of an exchange-traded fund (ETF) authorized participant like Jane Street suggest otherwise, observers have noted.

CoinDesk reached out to Jane Street for comment on BTC allegations and did not receive a reply as of European morning hours.

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The allegations

The claim, spread across dozens of viral posts, goes something like this: Jane Street, one of the world’s largest trading firms, was systematically selling bitcoin at 10 a.m. ET every day to push prices lower and then snap up ETFs cheaply.

“BTC has been consistently dumping ~2-3% within minutes of the U.S. cash open (10 a.m. ET) almost every trading day since early November. Many traders point to Jane Street’s massive $2.5B+ position in BlackRock’s IBIT as the likely driver: engineered liquidity sweeps to accumulate spot ETFs at a discount,” Whale Factor, a widely-followed X account said in December.

The recent 13/F filings revealed that Jane Street held roughly $790 million in IBIT shares as of the fourth quarter of 2025.

Jan Happel and Yann Allemann, the co-founders of blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, have also documented these patterns through their shared X account Negentropic and said Wednesday: “Jane street Lawsuit gets made public, and miraculously the 10am $btc slam disappears.”

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The allegations have exploded this week, after the firm was sued by TerraForm Labs’ bankruptcy operator for insider trading that hastened Terra’s demise in 2022. If that’s not enough, the 10 a.m. volatility has vanished in the wake of the lawsuit. Bitcoin surged by over 6% to nearly $70,000 on Wednesday.

In June last year, India’s SEBI banned Jane Street from local markets and froze $566 million in alleged illegal gains, citing a “morning pump, afternoon dump” scheme manipulating the Bank Nifty index on 18 derivatives expiry days from January 2023 to March 2025. The accusations, therefore, suggest Jane Street’s reputation precedes it.

Market data and logic suggest otherwise

The conspiracy that Jane Street has been secretly driving prices lower to snap up IBIT cheap could be challenged, however, using data tracked by crypto economist Alex Kruger, which doesn’t confirm the 10 a.m. dump.

The IBIT ETF has posted cumulative gains of around 0.9% in the 10:00-10:30 ET window; meanwhile, returns in the first 15 minutes have been -1%, according to Kruger. That’s noisy data, not evidence of systematic dumping, Kruger said on X.

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More importantly, both windows closely mirror Nasdaq performance, Kruger added, which means the so-called “10 a.m. dump” was a part of broad risk-asset repricing, not Jane Street foul play.

Jane Street, it should be pointed out, isn’t a rogue operator with unfettered power over bitcoin, but a single player — an authorized participant (AP) — in a regulated ecosystem designed to ensure smooth trading of the ETFs.

“No single firm sits at a terminal pressing “dump Bitcoin.” But the structure itself—the ETF architecture, the AP exemptions, the shift to in-kind creation—creates a grey window where price discovery can be muted without anyone breaking rules,” Yale ReiSoleil, chief technology officer of Untrading, an Ethereum-based financial infrastructure firm, said on X.

Spot ETFs are funds that track bitcoin’s spot price while holding actual coins in custody. Their shares trade on the stock exchange and their prices tend to drift away from the underlying asset’s net asset value (NAV) depending on the demand and supply.

APs like Jane Street, JPMorgan and Citadel Securities are tasked with creating new ETF shares with demand spikes and redeem when demand falls to ensure the ETF price remains tethered to the NAV.

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In the case of bitcoin ETFs, APs are allowed “in-kind” creation and redemption, where they can swap a basket of actual BTC directly with the issuing company, rather than just cash. These dynamics, which are legal and not manipulation, could have led to 10 a.m. volatility.

Short first, buy later

On a typical day, when BTC rises during the Asian and European hours, demand for ETFs spikes in early U.S. hours. This temporarily pushes the ETF price above its NAV. The APs then respond by increasing the supply of shares — sometimes by shorting shares they don’t have — to meet buyer demand and keep trading smooth.

Normally, shorting requires borrowing shares first, which costs money (like loan interest), but regulators have exempted APs from that rule.

Later, when they create new shares, they don’t rush to buy spot BTC right away and often source it privately through an over-the-counter shop. They then short futures or buy put options to hedge the long exposure from creating new shares.

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These things combined can inject temporary downside pressure in the market.

“APs can short IBIT without borrowing costs, thanks to a Reg SHO carve-out. They can hedge that short with futures instead of spot. That means the natural arb that should close the gap between ETF price and NAV never happens, because the AP never buys spot,” ReiSoleil explained.

“Meanwhile, in-kind creation lets them source bitcoin privately, OTC, at their own pace. The spot market never sees the buy pressure. The beginning looks like market-making. The end looks like market-making. The middle is where the integrity of price discovery goes to die,” he added.

Kruger agreed that Jane Street conspiracy theories are typical of the doom-laden sentiment that often emerges after prolonged bitcoin downtrends.

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He firmly disagreed with the allegation that the “short first and buy later” mechanics employed by APs temporarily suppress the price.

“Whether the spot is bought by the AP or the basis trader, the net demand on BTC spot is identical,” he said, arguing that the notion that hedging with futures first (and delaying immediate spot buys) somehow compromises the integrity of price discovery is simply incorrect.

Jane Street has not commented publicly, and no onchain data or exchange records have surfaced tying the firm to a coordinated campaign to push bitcoin lower.

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Fair Isaac (FICO) Stock Plunges 13% Amid Senate Probe and AI Competitive Fears

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FICO Stock Card

Key Highlights

  • Fair Isaac shares plummeted approximately 13% during Friday’s trading session, ranking among the S&P 500’s weakest performers
  • Shares are headed toward their lowest closing level since November 2023
  • FHFA’s Bill Pulte called for more affordable credit score pricing on March 24
  • Missouri Senator Josh Hawley launched a formal probe into the company’s pricing strategy
  • Wall Street firm Barclays reduced its price objective to $1,950 while maintaining an Overweight stance

Shares of Fair Isaac experienced a severe downturn Friday, plummeting approximately 13% to close at $954.43. This level represents the stock’s lowest closing price since it finished at $927.76 on November 6, 2023. The credit scoring giant ranked as the second-worst performer in the S&P 500 index, trailing only Akamai Technologies.


FICO Stock Card
Fair Isaac Corporation, FICO

The benchmark indices painted a contrasting picture. While the S&P 500 managed a modest 0.2% gain, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3%. FICO’s performance clearly diverged from the broader market trend in a decidedly negative direction.

The selloff extended beyond Fair Isaac. Other credit reporting companies also faced downward pressure. TransUnion shares declined 4.2%, Equifax retreated 2.7%, and Experian similarly finished the session lower.

Regulatory concerns surrounding FICO have been mounting in recent weeks. Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte took to social media on March 24 to declare that both credit score and credit bureau pricing “must be more affordable.” His statement came as a response to comments made by Missouri Republican Senator Josh Hawley.

Hawley escalated the matter by announcing the commencement of a formal examination into Fair Isaac’s pricing methodology. The company has not yet issued a public statement regarding the senator’s investigation.

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This type of regulatory scrutiny presents significant challenges for any stock, particularly one already experiencing downward momentum prior to the week’s events.

Wall Street Analyst Reduces Target

Adding to the regulatory concerns, Barclays released a more reserved outlook. The investment bank suggested that FICO’s strong first-quarter financial results might not be sufficient to counterbalance mounting investor anxiety regarding the company’s positioning in the artificial intelligence landscape.

Barclays adjusted its price objective downward to $1,950 from its previous forecast, though the firm retained its Overweight rating on the shares. While the bank continues to see potential for long-term appreciation, it anticipates near-term investor sentiment will remain subdued as macroeconomic uncertainty and AI-related narratives influence trading patterns.

Management’s forward guidance is likely to face heightened examination, especially considering geopolitical uncertainties that weren’t comprehensively factored into prior projections.

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Year-to-Date Struggles Intensify

Fair Isaac’s performance throughout 2026 has been notably challenging. Shares have declined roughly 43% year-to-date, with March alone accounting for a 24% drop. Friday’s decline marks the fifth consecutive monthly decrease for the stock.

Daily trading volume averages approximately 337,499 shares, and technical indicators currently signal a Sell recommendation. The company’s market capitalization has contracted to roughly $25.44 billion.

Prior to Friday’s trading action, FICO shares had already fallen around 36.57% for the year, positioning it among the S&P 500’s poorest performers in 2026.

Senator Hawley’s pricing investigation continues to progress, and Fair Isaac has not yet publicly responded to the affordability concerns articulated by both Hawley and Pulte.

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Ethereum Outpaces Bitcoin as Capital Rotation Gains Pace

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Ethereum gained 7.12% in March 2026 while Bitcoin rose 1.83%.
  • Ethereum market cap increased by 2.97% while Bitcoin declined slightly.
  • ETH showed higher volatility at 62.8% compared to Bitcoin’s 49.8%.
  • Exchange outflows indicated reduced selling pressure for Ethereum.
  • Network activity on Ethereum increased with rising active addresses.

Ethereum advanced over Bitcoin in March 2026 as capital shifted across crypto markets. Data showed stronger price gains and rising activity on Ethereum. Analysts linked the trend to liquidity response and network usage growth.

Ethereum Gains Momentum With Price and Activity Growth

Ethereum recorded a 7.12% monthly increase while Bitcoin posted a 1.83% gain. Market data showed investors favored assets with stronger short-term movement. Analysts stated, “Ethereum responded faster to liquidity changes during March.”

At the same time, Ethereum’s market capitalization rose by 2.97% during the period. Bitcoin’s market value slipped by 0.43%, reflecting slower capital inflows. This shift pointed to active repositioning by market participants.

Ethereum’s realized volatility reached 62.8%, while Bitcoin showed 49.8%. The higher volatility indicated sharper price reactions to market conditions. Analysts described Ethereum as a “higher beta asset in the current cycle.”

Meanwhile, Ethereum maintained a strong correlation with Bitcoin near 0.94. Despite this link, Ethereum displayed larger price swings in short periods. This pattern supported its role in rapid trading strategies.

Bitcoin Trails as Capital Moves Toward Ethereum

Bitcoin continued to attract steady demand but showed limited price expansion. Its modest growth aligned with its store-of-value positioning. Analysts said, “Bitcoin remained stable but lacked short-term momentum.”

On-chain data showed Ethereum exchange outflows increased during the same period. Reduced exchange balances suggested lower immediate selling pressure. This trend indicated stronger holding behavior among participants.

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Meanwhile, Ethereum network activity expanded with rising active addresses. Increased usage pointed to broader engagement across applications and services. Analysts linked this growth to DeFi and tokenization demand.

The Coinbase Premium Gap for Ethereum stayed negative but improved over time. This movement suggested a gradual return of demand from U.S. investors. Analysts noted steady recovery signals in regional trading flows.

Stablecoins and decentralized finance activity supported Ethereum’s ecosystem growth. Real-world asset tokenization also gained traction on the network. These factors reinforced Ethereum’s position as a financial infrastructure layer.

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Fair Isaac (FICO) Stock Plunges 13% Amid Senate Probe and AI Headwinds

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FICO Stock Card

Key Takeaways

  • Fair Isaac shares plummeted approximately 13% during Friday’s trading session, ranking among the S&P 500’s poorest performers
  • The closing price represents the company’s weakest level since late 2023
  • FHFA’s Bill Pulte publicly called for more affordable credit scoring on March 24
  • Missouri Senator Josh Hawley launched a formal probe into the company’s pricing strategies
  • Investment bank Barclays reduced its price objective to $1,950 while maintaining an Overweight stance

Shares of Fair Isaac experienced a substantial decline on Friday, plummeting roughly 13% to close at $954.43. This marks a trajectory toward the company’s weakest closing level since November 6, 2023, when shares settled at $927.76. Only Akamai Technologies posted a worse performance among S&P 500 constituents that day.


FICO Stock Card
Fair Isaac Corporation, FICO

Meanwhile, broader market indices painted a contrasting picture. The S&P 500 climbed 0.2%, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3%. FICO’s steep decline stood out sharply against this mixed backdrop.

The selloff extended beyond Fair Isaac itself. Other credit reporting companies also experienced significant downward pressure. TransUnion’s shares declined 4.2%, Equifax retreated 2.7%, and Experian similarly posted losses for the session.

Regulatory concerns surrounding FICO have been mounting over recent weeks. On March 24, Bill Pulte, Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, took to social media to declare that both credit score and credit bureau pricing structures “must be more affordable.” His statement came as a response to commentary from Missouri’s Republican Senator Josh Hawley.

Senator Hawley escalated matters by announcing the commencement of a formal investigation targeting FICO’s pricing methodologies. The company has not yet issued a public statement regarding the investigation.

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Such regulatory scrutiny typically weighs heavily on stock performance, particularly for a company already experiencing downward momentum entering the trading week.

Investment Bank Reduces Price Outlook

Compounding the regulatory concerns, Barclays issued a more conservative assessment of the company’s prospects. The investment bank cautioned that FICO’s strong first-quarter financial performance might prove insufficient to counterbalance mounting investor anxiety regarding the company’s competitive positioning in artificial intelligence.

Barclays revised its price target downward to $1,950 from its previous estimate, though the firm retained its Overweight rating on the shares. While the bank continues to identify long-term value potential, it anticipates near-term investor sentiment will remain subdued as macroeconomic uncertainty and AI-related narratives influence trading patterns.

Management’s forward guidance is anticipated to face heightened examination, especially considering geopolitical uncertainties that weren’t fully incorporated into prior projections.

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Challenging Year Continues to Deteriorate

Fair Isaac’s year-to-date stock performance presents a concerning picture for shareholders. The shares have declined approximately 43% since the beginning of the year, with a 24% drop recorded in March alone. Friday’s selloff positions the stock for its fifth consecutive monthly decline.

Daily trading volume averages approximately 337,499 shares, while technical indicators currently signal a Sell recommendation. The company’s market capitalization has contracted to roughly $25.44 billion.

Before Friday’s trading session, FICO stock had already fallen around 36.57% year-to-date, establishing it as among the S&P 500’s weakest performers in 2026.

The investigation initiated by Senator Hawley continues to develop, while Fair Isaac has yet to publicly respond to the pricing criticisms voiced by both the Senator and FHFA Director Pulte.

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Flare Proposes FLR Overhaul with MEV Capture and Inflation Cut

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Flare plans to reduce FLR inflation from 5% to 3% under a new governance proposal.
  • The proposal introduces FIRE to manage revenue from protocol-level MEV capture.
  • Flare aims to shift block building to a controlled model to retain network value.
  • The network proposes raising gas fees to increase annual token burn levels.
  • Governance voting will take place between April 17 and April 24.

Flare introduced a governance proposal to reshape FLR tokenomics and capture protocol-level MEV. The plan reduces inflation and redirects network value into ecosystem incentives. It also outlines a structured builder model to control block production and revenue flow.

Flare and FLR Plan Shifts Tokenomics Through MEV Capture

Flare proposes reducing annual FLR inflation from 5% to 3%, cutting issuance by 40%. The proposal also lowers the yearly cap from 5 billion to 3 billion FLR tokens.

The network introduced FIRE, or Flare Income Reinvestment Entity, to manage captured value. It aims to channel proceeds into buybacks, burns, and ecosystem funding.

Flare stated, “The model seeks to connect network usage directly to token value.” The framework focuses on aligning onchain activity with FLR demand.

The proposal shifts block building toward a protocol-controlled structure over time. This change targets value flows that typically move to external searchers.

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The system plans to capture positive MEV, including arbitrage and liquidation events. It also includes liquidity provisioning within the builder framework.

Flare said the change supports long-term token sustainability through structured revenue capture. It also aims to reduce inefficiencies seen across many blockchain systems.

Network Activity Supports Proposal Timing and Economic Changes

Flare reported over $160 million in total value locked across its ecosystem. It also recorded more than 880,000 active addresses on the network.

The network confirmed around 150 million FXRP minted, with over 85% deployed in DeFi use. Dune data shows TVL near $165 million.

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The proposal includes a gas fee increase from 60 gwei to 1,200 gwei. This adjustment aims to raise annual FLR burn from 7.5 million to 300 million tokens.

Flare said higher fees could strengthen burn mechanics under current transaction levels. It also expects a stronger linkage between usage and token supply reduction.

The plan shifts reward allocation toward P Chain staking participants. It also sets a minimum 20% fee share for infrastructure contributors.

Flare noted that this structure supports entities maintaining network services. It ensures a defined share of generated revenue flows to operators.

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Governance Timeline Outlines Decision Window for Proposal

Flare scheduled the governance notice period from April 9 to April 16. The network then set voting between April 17 and April 24.

The proposal outlines immediate implementation for key economic changes upon approval. These include inflation cuts and fee structure adjustments.

Flare emphasized that the builder model will roll out gradually over time. The shift depends on governance approval and network readiness.

The proposal connects multiple network components, including FAssets and Smart Accounts. It also integrates Flare Data Connector and Confidential Compute.

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Flare stated that the next phase links ecosystem activity directly to FLR economics. The network confirmed that voting will determine the proposal outcome.

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Bittensor's TAO risks 45% dip amid 'decentralization theater' accusation

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Bittensor's TAO risks 45% dip amid 'decentralization theater' accusation

Bittensor's TAO risks 45% dip amid 'decentralization theater' accusation

TAO drops 30% from its weekly high, confirming fractal setups that projected deeper downside targets for the token in the past.

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BTC Targets $88K As Exchange Inflows Drop Under $3 Billion

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Mirroring a breakout setup from Q2 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is now eyeing a possible rally toward the $86,000–$90,000 range over the next few weeks.

The bullish view is supported by robust Bitcoin whale activity and large BTC inflows to exchanges, which have dropped by $5 billion over the past two months.

BTC support cluster at $70,000 builds breakout pressure

Bitcoin reached a weekly high of $73,255 on Friday after testing the $72,000 level earlier in the week, with the price compressing between $70,000 and $72,000 over the past four days. The higher price range is showing more stability for BTC than in March, when BTC quickly corrected after reaching the key level. 

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
BTC/USDT on the four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 30-day rolling volume-weighted average price (VWAP), which indicates where most recent trading activity has occurred, and the 50-day moving average have converged below the price, forming a dynamic support base.

Currently, the $76,000 level marks the upper boundary of a 64-day sideways phase. A push above this level aligns with the descending trendline formed after the October highs near $126,000.

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A breakout from this trend may signal a major shift and remove the psychological barrier that capped rallies over the past few months. 

In Q2 2025, a similar setup formed after a prolonged compression below the moving averages. Once the price cleared the descending trendline, it expanded quickly into the next supply zone.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
BTC/USDT on the one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The current structure mirrors that sequence, with liquidity stacked between $86,000 and $90,000. This indicates a clean path for price expansion once the bearish trendline gives way.

Related: Bitcoin can be made quantum-safe without protocol upgrade: Researcher

BTC whale flows signal supply absorption

Crypto analyst Amr Taha noted that the 30-day Bitcoin inflows to exchanges from whales dropped to $2.96 billion, the first sub-$3 billion reading since June 2025.

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The lower inflows reduce immediate sell-side pressure on exchanges. For context, the whale inflows to exchanges were as high as $8 billion in February. 

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
BTC whale-to-exchange flow on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

At the same time, the long-term holder realized cap change reached $49 billion on April 9, marking renewed accumulation.

Taha noted a transfer of supply from weaker to stronger hands across these metrics. The divergence highlights steady absorption rather than aggressive selling.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
BTC CVD indicator for whale orders. Source: CW/X

Additionally, whale-sized orders of $1 million to $10 million pushed the spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) above $600 million on April 9, while market analyst CW pointed to renewed buying from other whale cohorts as well.

This activity coincides with price stabilization above $70,000. The $76,000 level now acts as a trigger zone, with the $86,000 to $90,000 range holding a visible, concentrated liquidity zone. 

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
BTCUSDT liquidity map. Source: CoinGlass

Related: Bitcoin hits $73K as cool US CPI data shows 60-year record gas price hike