Watch These Bitcoin Price Levels Ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Speech

Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to break the resistance at $90,000 on Wednesday, as traders expect volatile price swings before and after the US policy decision on interest rate cuts. 

Key takeaways:

• The odds of the US Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged today are 100%.

• BTC price may drop as low as $65,500 if the key support zone between $80,000 and $84,000 is broken.

100% chance interest rates won’t change

There is nearly a 100% chance that the current interest rates will remain between 3.5% and 3.75%, according to data from Polymarket.

Futures market traders have also locked in a 97.2% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged, with odds for a 25 bps reduction at only 2.8%.

However, market participants say that any bearish price action from unchanged interest rates is already priced in.

Related: Bitcoin’s real ‘Uptober’ moment might start in February: Here’s why

Traders have other sources of volatility to contend with, including the Japanese economy, risks of another US government shutdown and the Fed’s move to buy yen, along with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech after the FOMC meeting. 

The market will closely watch Powell’s language at the FOMC news conference to see if there is any shift in tone.

“Tomorrow is FOMC and markets are certain that the Fed will leave rates unchanged,” analyst Satoshi Stacker said in a Tuesday post on X, adding:

“All eyes will be on Powell’s press conference and what he suggests the Fed’s plans are for the coming months.”

“If we hear any hints of cuts in March, Bitcoin sends to the moon,” said crypto investor Kiran Gadakh. 

Meanwhile, the US dollar index dropped to a four-year low of 95.55 on Tuesday, the lowest level since February 2022. 

Historically, a weakening US dollar has tended to support risk assets such as Bitcoin by easing global financial conditions and improving liquidity.

As Cointelegraph has reported, the BTC/USD pair has often staged major breakouts in the months following sustained declines in the dollar index, particularly when DXY falls below the 96 level.

Analysts highlight key BTC price levels to watch

Traders say Bitcoin bulls must hold the $80,000-$84,000 support band to avoid a deeper correction, forecasting bear market targets as low as $58,000. 

The support at $84,000 remains key for bulls, representing the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level measured from the 2022 bear market bottom at $15,500 to local tops, according to Daan Crypto Trades.

The analyst shared a chart showing that the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement retest has held throughout the entire cycle so far.

While the “price was much quicker to react previously, this is not the case now,” Daan Crypto Trades said, adding:

“While this is technically still a decent level to watch, I’d want to see some action pretty soon to keep the structure alive.”

“Bitcoin cannot lose $81K under any circumstances,” said founder and CEO of Alphractal Joao Wedson in a X post on Tuesday.

Losing this level would mean a “capitulation process similar to 2022 may unfold,” Wedson said, adding:

“The next major support would sit around $65,500.”

On the upside, a key area of interest lies between $90,000 and $94,000, where the 50-day and 100-day moving averages sit.

Higher than that, the next move would be a retest of the $98,000 psychological level, which is also the short-term holder cost basis.