Crypto World
What Caused Bitcoin Crash? 3 Theories Behind BTC’s 40% Dip in a Month
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has endured one of its steepest drawdowns in weeks, sinking more than 40% over the past month to a year-to-date low near $59,930 on Friday. The retreat leaves the asset roughly 50% off its October 2025 all-time high around $126,200. Market participants point to a mix of leverage, ETF-linked products, and shifting risk appetite as the accelerants behind the move. The episode has intensified scrutiny of the nexus between funding channels, hedging activity, and mining economics as liquidity tightens and option markets unwind.
Key takeaways
- Analysts highlight Asia-linked flow dynamics—including leveraged bets tied to Bitcoin ETFs and yen funding—as potential catalysts for the sell-off.
- Short-term risk to miners remains elevated, with BTC hovering near the $60k mark and the possibility of renewed pressure if the level fails to hold.
- A widely discussed theory posits that banks could have been forced to unwind exposure to structured notes tied to spot BTC ETFs, amplifying selling pressure during the slide.
- The mining sector is reportedly pivoting toward AI data-center workloads, contributing to hash-rate shifts and changing the economics of mining operations.
- Hash-rate indicators and production-cost data suggest mounting stress for some operators if prices stay depressed, particularly for producers with higher energy costs.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $IBIT, $SOL, $RIOT
Sentiment: Bearish
Price impact: Negative. The price collapse has heightened risk across mining cash flows and lenders’ hedging obligations, reinforcing a downside tilt.
Market context: The move unfolds amid thinning liquidity, ongoing ETF flow considerations, and macro risk sentiment that shape crypto pricing and funding conditions.
Why it matters
At its core, the current bout of volatility underscores how crypto price action remains tethered to leverage cycles and funding dynamics. If large holders and miners face balance-sheet stress as prices retreat, the resilience of BTC could hinge on liquidity restoration and the capacity of major players to manage hedges and collateral calls. The episode also highlights the growing integration between traditional finance instruments and crypto exposure—for example, ETF-linked notes and over-the-counter hedges—where the mechanics of delta-hedging can intensify price moves in fast-moving markets.
From a mining perspective, the evolving energy and capacity landscape matters for network security and long-term dynamics. Reports about miners reallocating capital toward AI data-center projects signal a shift in how hardware is deployed and priced into production costs. The tension between a falling price floor and rising or variable energy expenses can widen the gap between theoretical profitability and actual cash flow for operators. This has implications for hash-rate stability, miner incentives, and the broader health of BTC mining outside of bull-market phases.
On the regulatory and institutional front, the unfolding narrative intersects with how large banks and asset managers interact with crypto products. If organized hedging around spot BTC ETFs remains sizable, any further price shocks could trigger feedback loops that amplify volatility until markets reach a clearer equilibrium between funding costs, risk appetite, and crypto demand. The conversation around Morgan Stanley and other banks’ hedging behavior—whether tied to structured notes or other instruments—adds a layer of complexity to understanding who bears the cost of volatility and how liquidity is distributed during stress episodes.
What to watch next
- Bitcoin’s price behavior around the $60,000 level: does it defend the level, or does renewed downside pressure test nearby support?
- Hash-rate and mining economics: will energy costs and capital reallocation toward AI data centers reshape the mining landscape in the coming weeks?
- ETF flows and bank hedging: how do institutional exposures to BTC-linked products evolve, and what does that imply for liquidity during stress periods?
- Corporate pivots in mining: how are operators like Riot Platforms (RIOT) and others adjusting capital plans in response to price volatility?
- Macro and regulatory cues: what new developments could alter risk sentiment or the availability of liquidity to crypto markets?
Sources & verification
- BTC price level and price-action narrative tied to the week’s moves and the year-to-date low near $59,930, with reference to the BTC/USD daily chart from TradingView.
- Activity around BlackRock’s IBIT and related volume/option data cited as a trigger for stress and unwind in ETF-linked bets.
- Discussion of structured-note hedging and potential bank involvements, anchored to the Morgan Stanley product documentation and related regulatory filings.
- Hash-rate and mining-cost indicators, including the Hash Ribbons signal and underlying cost data for mining operations (electricity costs and net production expenditure).
- Company-level mining shifts and past activity, such as Riot Platforms’ December actions and IREN’s pivot to AI data-center deployments, as cited in related articles.
Bitcoin price reaction and miner vulnerabilities
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has endured a rapid re-pricing as liquidity conditions tightened and carry trades unwound. After a run that had carried the asset close to $126,200 in October 2025, BTC retraced to around $59,930 by Friday, exposing a more than 40% drop from recent highs and placing the year-to-date performance in the red. The pullback comes amid a confluence of factors: patience in risk markets, sudden squeezes in leveraged bets, and the energy of ETF-linked products that amplify price movements when flows reverse. The narrative has centered on Asia-based players who had pursued aggressive bets on BTC appreciation using options tied to Bitcoin ETFs and financing through yen borrowings. As one participant described, this funding dynamic allowed bets to scale quickly, only to reverse with the worsening price trajectory.
The tension around ETF-linked products is exemplified by BlackRock’s IBIT discussions, where a surge in volume and options activity was observed on one of the largest days for the instrument. Parker White, COO and CIO of Nasdaq-listed DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV), noted that participants used yen-based funding to support bets on BTC and related assets, recycling capital across currencies in search of outsized gains. In the period in question, IBIT recorded about $10.7 billion in trading volume, roughly doubling typical activity, while approximately $900 million in options premium changed hands—an unusually energetic display given the broader price weakness. The price action across BTC and SOL in that session underscored how sensitive the market remains to funding-driven dynamics.
This was the highest volume day on $IBIT, ever, by a factor of nearly 2x, trading $10.7B today. Additionally, roughly $900M in options premiums were traded today, also the highest ever for IBIT. Given these facts and the way $BTC and $SOL traded down in lockstep today (normally…
— Parker (@TheOtherParker_) February 6, 2026
As BTC momentum faltered and yen-funding costs rose, those leveraged bets began to sour quickly. Lenders demanded more cash, and asset liquidations accelerated, reinforcing the downturn. The episode has fed into a broader conversation about how banks and market makers hedge exposures tied to crypto products. In particular, the idea that banks—potentially including Morgan Stanley—might have needed to liquidate Bitcoin or related positions to manage structured-note exposure tied to spot BTC ETFs has gained traction among observers who see delta-hedging as a potential catalyst for negative gamma risk. When prices fall sharply, dealers must hedge by selling underlying BTC or futures, which can accelerate price declines in a feedback loop.
Beyond the banking-hedge narrative, some market observers have pointed to the mining sector’s evolving strategy as a factor shaping price dynamics. A school of thought argues that an ongoing mining exodus toward AI data-center capacity could reduce BTC hashing power at a pace that complicates mining economics during a prolonged bear phase. Judge Gibson emphasized this point in a recent post on X, noting that AI demand is already drawing equipment away from pure BTC mining toward data-center deployments. Riot Platforms (NASDAQ: RIOT) confirmed a broader pivot toward AI data-center infrastructure in December 2025, while IREN and other miners have reported similar strategic shifts. Hash-rate data, including the Hash Ribbons indicator, show a 30-day moving average slipping below the 60-day line, a setup historically associated with stress on miner margins and potential capitulation risk.
Current production-cost estimates place the breakeven edge for miners in the vicinity of BTC’s price level. The latest figures show the average electricity cost to mine a single BTC around $58,160, with net production expenditure near $72,700. If BTC’s price remains anchored below the $60,000 mark, some mining operations could face true financial strain, forcing balance-sheet adjustments or, in extreme cases, asset sales to cover operating costs. Meanwhile, the long-term holder cohort appears to be pruning exposure, with wallets containing 10 to 10,000 BTC representing a smaller share of circulating supply than in nine months past, a sign that large holders may be reducing positions amid heightened volatility.
The market remains in a fragile balance, where price levels and mining economics are inextricably linked to funding costs, energy prices, and macro risk appetite. As BTC navigates this terrain, the outcome will likely hinge on a combination of liquidity restoration, continued mining-capacity realignments, and the ability of institutional actors to manage risk without adding to volatility. If the price holds above critical thresholds, miners may regain some breathing room; if not, the financial stress could intensify across the ecosystem, with knock-on effects for crypto lending, derivatives, and the broader risk-on appetite that has defined the asset class in recent years.
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Solana is holding its breath, trading at the $84 price level, it is barely moving with just 1% gain in the last 24 hours, as opposed to BTC 2.4% gain and ETH 4.5%, even with bullish catalysts that bring a good prediction. Institutional heavyweights Interactive Brokers and Galaxy Digital signal a deepening commitment to the network, and could force a directional move soon.
— Solana Daily (@solana_daily) March 31, 2026
Interactive Brokers (@IBKR), one of the world's largest brokers, launches crypto trading for 450M people across Europe, including $SOL. pic.twitter.com/mOvB1kVSxd
Institutional pressure is building on both sides of the trade. Galaxy’s continued positioning in SOL infrastructure and Interactive Brokers’ expanded support for the asset add credibility to the bull thesis, even as the broader market sits in near-extreme fear.
The macro headwinds are real. But so is the on-chain growth underpinning SOL’s longer-term case. ETF inflows into Solana products remain a live catalyst that institutional desks are watching closely.
Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with
Solana Price Prediction: $95 or $75 Next?
SOL has been compressing in a tightening range under $90, a setup that can resolved with a sharp move in either direction. At $84 with a 1.5% single-day decline, the immediate picture looks defensive, but RSI sits at 46, a technical buy signal that suggests sellers haven’t fully taken control yet.
Resistance is stacked. Immediate ceiling at $88, then the $90.50–$91 zone, with $95 acting as the breakout trigger that unlocks the bull case. Above that level, we can safely target $115–$125.
But a breakdown below the $75 support zone opens the door to deeper downside. The setup is binary. Position sizing accordingly.
Discover: The best pre-launch token sales
Maxi Doge Targets Early Mover Upside as Solana Tests Key Levels
SOL at $84 with a $95 breakout requirement means most of the easy money on this trade has already been made. For traders calculating risk-reward on a market-cap-weighted basis, the upside from here demands patience and assumes macro conditions cooperate. That’s where early-stage positioning starts looking different on a spreadsheet.
Maxi Doge ($MAXI) is an Ethereum-based meme token built around a 240-lb canine juggernaut and a 1000x leverage trading mentality, genuinely unhinged energy, deliberately so.
The project has raised more than $4,7 million at a current price of $0.00028, with 66% staking APY bonus available for holders. Features include holder-only trading competitions with leaderboard rewards, a Maxi Fund treasury for liquidity and partnerships, and meme-first marketing built on viral gym-bro humor.
Research Maxi Doge and join the army.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile. Always do your own research before investing.
The post Solana Price Prediction: Interactive Brokers Supports SOL, Galaxy Doubles Down appeared first on Cryptonews.
Strategy, the world’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder, has held the 11.5% dividend rate on its perpetual preferred stock, Stretch (STRC). This marks the first time the product has not seen a dividend increase since the product launched in July 2025.
STRC debuted in July 2025 with a 9% dividend and has since undergone seven dividend increases. The company was able to maintain the current rate after the volume weighted average price (VWAP) for the month reached $99.95, keeping the shares close enough to their $100 par value.
Strategy positions STRC as a short duration, high yield savings alternative. The perpetual preferred stock pays monthly cash distributions, with the dividend rate adjusted each month to support trading near par and limit price volatility.
During Tuesday’s session, STRC held close to par for most of the day. The company is estimated to have purchased over 1,000 BTC, and it took 12 days for STRC to recover back to par following the ex dividend date. It is likely the shares will continue trading near par over the next two weeks, leading up to the April 14 ex dividend date.
Meanwhile, Strive (ASST), the bitcoin treasury asset manager, saw its own perpetual preferred product, SATA, reach $100 par for the first time. This enabled the company to issue shares through its at the market (ATM) program to fund additional bitcoin purchases. SATA currently offers a dividend rate of 12.7%.
Announced at EthCC in Cannes, the upgrade enables institution-specific borrowing environments, structured credit products, and RWA-backed lending within a unified liquidity system.
Crypto World
Australia passes crypto regulation requiring exchanges to obtain financial services licenses
Australia passed legislation on Wednesday, creating its first comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets that requires crypto exchanges and custody providers to obtain financial services licenses.
The Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Bill 2025 cleared both houses on April 1, bringing firms that hold digital assets on behalf of customers into the existing Australian Financial Services Licence regime.
Australia’s bill creates two new regulated categories under the Corporations Act: digital asset platforms, which hold crypto on behalf of users, and tokenized custody platforms, which hold real-world assets and issue a corresponding digital token.
Operators of both must obtain an Australian Financial Services License from ASIC, bringing them under the same core rules as brokers or fund managers, including requirements to safeguard client assets, provide standardized disclosures, avoid misleading conduct, and maintain dispute resolution and compensation systems.
Instead of regulating crypto itself, the law targets the companies in the middle that control customer funds, aiming to reduce risks like commingling, insolvency, and misuse of assets that have caused losses in past crypto failures.
Research from the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Center and industry groups estimates Australia could generate as much as A$24 billion annually from tokenized markets, payments, and digital assets, roughly 1% of GDP. Under the previous regulatory path, the country was on track to capture just A$1 Billion of that by 2030.
A Kraken spokesperson said the law provides a “top-down signal” that Australia is serious about digital assets, adding that clearer rules would give firms confidence to invest and expand locally.
Kate Cooper, CEO of OKX Australia and co-chair of the Digital Economy Council of Australia, called the bill a “pivotal moment,” saying it establishes a foundation for institutional participation and long-term capital allocation.
Almonty’s tungsten mine in Sangdong, South Korea, in March 2026.
Almonty
BEIJING — The Iran war is squeezing a global commodities market already pressured by China’s export controls and stockpiling efforts.
Prices of three niche elements — tungsten, sulfur and helium — have climbed sharply in recent weeks.
While none of the commodities are traded as widely as oil, the surge indicates how ripple effects from the Middle East conflict could end up restricting production of the semiconductors that power artificial intelligence advances.
Tungsten, a metal nearly as hard as a diamond, creates the electrical connection in the core of a semiconductor chip. Sulfuric acid, a byproduct of sulfur, cleans chip wafers. Helium enables smooth production of semiconductors since the gas prevents unwanted chemical reactions in the manufacturing process.
Those are just some of the ways in which the three elements have become critical for modern manufacturing, including for defense.
Beijing started to ramp up its control over the critical supplies even before the Iran war started on Feb. 28, partly as tensions with the U.S. escalated over the last few years.
China started restricting tungsten exports just over a year ago, and in December called for tighter limits on sulfuric acid exports. Helium, a gas that’s difficult to store, saw the volume of Chinese imports rise by 15.7% in 2025, after a nearly 65% surge in 2024, according to Wind Information.
The Iran war and the ensuing constraints on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical Middle East shipping route for energy and chemicals, has tipped some oversupply situations into undersupply, while exacerbating existing shortages.
Prices of the three commodities have jumped in some cases by more than oil. The widely used fossil fuel has climbed by more than 50% in March, putting Brent on track for a record month.
“While the Chinese supply chain is being viewed as more resilient than many peers, the risk of disruption in chemicals as raw materials for manufacturers in selected segments is higher than expected based on the feedback,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report late last week, citing nearly 40 commodity-related meetings and site visits in China.
Tungsten
Tungsten hit a record high of over $3,000 late last week, marking a surge of well over 50% for the month and more than tripling in price since late December. That’s based on the industry benchmark called “ammonium para tungstate (APT)” in metric ton units, or MTU, from Fastmarket, as quoted by tungsten miner Almonty.
Almonty officially reopened a large tungsten mine in Sangdong, South Korea, earlier this month, and plans to start producing some tungsten this year at a project in the U.S. state of Montana.
The company’s CEO Lewis Black told CNBC that defense sector demand for tungsten has been “extremely strong” since the beginning of last year, but that there’s been no notable change despite the Iran war.
“There’s no material to stockpile. That’s probably the biggest change,” he said.
Sulfur
The price of sulfuric acid in Africa is now at least 30% higher than it was prior to the war, and is still rising, the Goldman Sachs analysts said, citing a local Chinese miner in Africa.
Other assessments point to a milder rise in prices.
China sulfur prices, including cost and freight, climbed by about 13% from early March to $621 per tonne as of March 26, according to S&P Global Platts.
“A 2-3 month effective blockade would likely become a severe supply shock, especially as freight/insurance stay elevated and Middle East-origin cargoes become harder to execute,” Pan Yuya, lead analyst for sulfur and phosphate raw materials at S&P Global Energy, and Isaac Zhao, senior principal analyst, China fertilizers at S&P Global Energy, said in a March 20 note.
The S&P analysts said that around 56% of China’s sulfur imports came from the Middle East in 2025.
“Even prior to the Middle East conflict, sulfur prices were rising sharply as the market tightened. With sulfur prices now at fresh record highs, the ‘super squeeze’ in this rather obscure commodity in supply warrants further examination,” HSBC analysts said in a March 16 report.
Helium
Helium prices have roughly doubled since the Iran war began, according to Fitch Ratings.
As most trading occurs through long-term private contracts between industrial gas suppliers and manufacturers, it is difficult to pinpoint industry-wide prices, said Shelley Jang, Fitch’s director of Asia-Pacific corporate ratings.
Iranian missile attacks this month crippled a key industrial center in Qatar, which produces about one-third of the world’s helium.
That implies helium supply won’t be restored anytime soon, pointed out Christopher Ecclestone, principal and mining strategist at Hallgarten & Company.
In one indication of further market tightness, prices of helium in China’s Henan province have reversed a downturn this year to climb from a Feb. 28 low of 545 yuan ($78.85) a bottle to 600 yuan ($86.81), according to Wind Information.
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Shortages caused by the Iran war are the latest supply chain disruption to rock global markets, which faced similar shocks from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the Covid-19 pandemic. That’s pushed companies to diversify, and countries such as China to ramp up stockpiling plans.
“Access to supplies of certain physical materials where production and processing is concentrated in China will become more frequent topics of negotiations with Beijing,” Rhodium Group said in a March 24 report.
Limited price transparency also means the shortage could be worse than available numbers suggest.
Tungsten and helium prices have been surging, “but you don’t have anyone on the buy side saying, ‘oh my goodness, we don’t have enough product,’” Ecclestone said. “Defense contractors should have warehouses of tungsten, but they don’t.”
“The world has got lazy. It thinks life is like a supermarket, the product is a pack of cornflakes or a few tons of sulfuric acid,” he said. “The supermarket of commodities has had a few of the aisles chopped down.”
The ex-Blackstone team wants to move beyond crypto-collateralized loans and into ‘real economy credit’ as the tokenized RWA sector continues to grow.
Bitcoin has declined by about 50% this market cycle, far less than in previous cycles, Fidelity Digital Assets said, adding this trend could continue over time.
Bitcoin’s post-all-time-high drawdowns have historically been steep, at about 80% to 90%, but this cycle has been about 50%, Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst Zack Wainwright said Tuesday.
One can see the “diminishing returns” that have developed from cycle to cycle when looking at Bitcoin’s price performance from the perspective of the previous all-time high, he said.
“Each cycle has been less dramatic to the upside than the previous,” he said. “Downside risk has been less dramatic in 2026, the current cycle, as well,” he added.
Bitcoin’s price hit its current cycle low of just over $60,000 on Feb. 6, a decline of 52% from its Oct. 6 all-time high of about $126,000, according to TradingView. It is currently down 46% from its peak six months ago.
The previous cycle saw a much larger decline of 77%, from the 2021 all-time high of $69,000 to a bear market low just below $16,000 in November 2022.
Bitcoin may bottom in late September
Fidelity’s assessment that this Bitcoin cycle is notably shallower than prior cycles “indicates a maturing market with reduced volatility and stronger institutional confidence,” Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph on Wednesday.
“This shift signals that Bitcoin is changing from a speculative asset toward a more stable store of value, potentially paving the way for greater adoption in the future.”
Related: Bitcoin’s $10K range expected to hold until spot traders show up: Data
Meanwhile, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson observed Tuesday that Bitcoin’s top occurred 534 days after the last halving, a shorter span than in the previous cycle.
This “decaying pattern” across cycles suggests the historical bottom may occur between 912 and 922 days after the halving, which “points to a bottom in late September or early October 2026,” he said.
BTC is below key daily moving averages
Bitcoin remains below the key 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, two long-term trend indicators.
It is hovering at the 200-week EMA, around $68,000, which has served as a key level of support during previous market downturns.
Magazine: Nobody knows if quantum secure cryptography will even work
Consumers browse Huawei phones in a shopping mall in Yantai, Shandong Province, China on March 8, 2026.
Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images
Huawei’s push to develop its own artificial intelligence chip has yet to drive the double-digit revenue gains of its peers, as Chinese companies strive to narrow the gap with the U.S. on AI.
Cloud computing revenue from external customers fell by 3.5% in 2025 to 32.16 billion yuan ($4.6 billion), Huawei said. The company is the second-largest cloud provider in mainland China.
While overall cloud revenue including internal customers rose by 4.8% to 72.8 billion yuan, the main ICT infrastructure segment reported revenue growth that slowed to 2.6%, down from 4.9% in 2024.
That’s the segment that would include Huawei’s self-developed Ascend AI chip solutions, meant to rival Nvidia. Huawei’s total ICT revenue for 2025 was 375.01 billion yuan.
The U.S. has restricted Chinese companies’ access to the most advanced Nvidia chips, while Beijing has urged tech self sufficiency at home.
Huawei’s decline in cloud revenue to external customers comes as ByteDance has rapidly grown its AI cloud business in China in the last several months, albeit from a small base.
The TikTok owner is reportedly ramping up access to high-end Nvidia chips in a partnership deal with a planned Malaysia data center. ByteDance and Alibaba also plan to place orders of Huawei’s new AI chip, Reuters reported last week, citing sources. ByteDance declined to comment. The two other Chinese companies did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment.
U.S.-developed AI tools are generally considered the most capable in the world, although some Chinese models have shown an edge in video generation. Not all U.S. AI models are officially accessible in mainland China.
Huawei’s modest cloud growth figures come amid rapid industry expansion worldwide and slower economic growth in China.
Globally, spending on cloud infrastructure services rose by 29% in the fourth quarter in a sixth-straight quarter of market expansion of more than 20%, according to Omdia. The firm predicts 27% cloud growth in 2026.
Earlier this month, Alibaba, the largest cloud computing company by market share in mainland China, reported a 36% increase in segment revenue to 43.28 billion yuan in 2025. Tencent said increased cloud service revenues domestically and internationally helped drive a 22% year-on-year increase in business services revenue in 2025.
Local promotions this month in China for AI tool OpenClaw have also encouraged many locals to download the agent and pay for related cloud and AI model services. China’s consumer spending has remained tepid since the pandemic.
Consumer revenue slows
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Huawei smartphones ranked first in China last year by shipments, up by 1.7%, according to Counterpoint. But the Chinese company lost ground to Apple toward the end of 2025 after the iPhone 17’s release.
For 2025 overall, the telecommunication giant reported revenue of 880.9 billion yuan, up 2%, on net profit of 68 billion, up around 8% from a year ago.
The company spent a record 192.3 billion yuan in research and development, or 21.8% of revenue.
“In 2025, Huawei’s overall performance remained steady,” Sabrina Meng, Huawei’s rotating chairwoman, said in a brief statement, which also expressed gratitude to customers, partners and employees.
The intelligent automotive solutions unit saw revenue of 45.02 billion yuan, with growth slowing to 72% year-on-year, down from a whopping 474.4% in 2024, as the autos business captured an initial surge in electric vehicles. Huawei partners with several automobile manufacturers for in-car software and driver-assist technology.
Bitcoin held gains above $68,000 as investors leaned into news that the US and Iran were ideating ways to end the war. Will markets hold their newfound bullishness?
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly jumped to $68,589, and US stock markets rallied as investors reacted to US President Donald Trump’s statements on considering options for ending the US and Israel-Iran war. Separate, unconfirmed comments attributed to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also suggested that Iran may be looking for ways to end the war.
On Tuesday, reporting from The Wall Street Journal said that President Trump told his aides that he could consider ending the war in Iran, with the Straight of Hormuz remaining partially closed, but an official statement has not been given.
Unconfirmed reports also suggest that Iran’s president is looking for a way to exit the conflict with certain assurances being made by the US and Israel. Regardless of the accuracy of the statements from either president, the DOW gained more than 1,125 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 2.91% and 3.83%, respectively.
Despite the strong performance seen across markets, Cointelegraph reported that crypto traders are skeptical of Bitcoin holding its current gains. Analysts suggested that a daily close above the 50-day moving average and $68,879 are key to establishing an early trend change and potentially clearing overhead short liquidity, which could trigger a liquidation-driven rally to $82,000.
Related: Bitcoin hits $68K but BTC futures, macro data show traders remain bearish
A lack of confidence is the current culprit
Beyond US macroeconomic conditions and the forecasted longer-term negative impact of the US and Israel-Iran war on energy, goods and services costs, the weakness of spot demand in the Bitcoin market continues to cap most price breakouts.
As shown in the chart below, open interest in the Bitcoin futures market, along with spot demand have remained relatively flat since the Feb. 6 sell-off below $60,000. This suggests that a majority of the price action is driven by news headlines, equities and perpetual futures markets, as the absence of investors making sustained directional bets in each market (futures and spot) leaves BTC price range-bound.
Earlier reporting from Cointelegraph also highlighted short-term traders holding positions below their cost basis ($85,800) and stablecoin inflows to crypto exchanges near a two-year low, further evidence that traders remain extremely cautious and are electing not to take strong directional bets in the market.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
Key takeaways:
-
Solana outperforms Ethereum in high-revenue DApps, providing a fundamental cushion against recent price drops.
-
Rising Ethereum Layer-2 dominance challenges SOL as traders monitor the critical $80 support level for a retest.
Solana’s native token, SOL (SOL), faced an 11% correction following a rejection at $93 on last Wednesday. SOL has lagged the broader cryptocurrency market over the past week, testing the $80 support on multiple occasions. Solana network fees have also declined over the past two months, leading traders to fear a potential retest of the $75 level.
The total value locked (TVL) on Solana stood at $6.3 billion, though the gap remains wide compared to Ethereum’s $54.1 billion. However, Solana amassed 80% more network fees than its main competitor over the last 30 days. This difference is largely due to Ethereum’s incentives for layer-2 rollups, which utilize temporary data blobs to lower costs.
Network fees on Solana dropped to $18.5 million in March, a 42% decrease from January’s $30 million level. Most of this decline stems from lower activity in decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes. Despite maintaining leadership in absolute terms, Solana DEX volumes plummeted to $55.5 billion, their lowest levels since September 2024, according to DefiLlama data.
In comparison, Ethereum DEX volumes totaled $41 billion in March, down 23% from two months prior. More importantly, when aggregating Ethereum layer-2 blockchains like Base, Arbitrum, Polygon, and Optimism, Ethereum’s DEX market share jumped to 42% in March from 33% in January. Solana’s dominance is gradually being challenged, which partially explains SOL’s current bearish momentum.
Solana DApps revenue could solidify SOL’s $80 support level
While DEX volumes on Solana are declining, no other network matches its number of DApps earning $1 million or more in 30 days. This data serves as a strong incentive for developers to join Solana, creating opportunities for user returns through protocols like Pump, Helium Network and ORE Protocol. Since protocol revenues drive investor attention, a healthy ecosystem remains extremely important for SOL’s upside.
Related: Solana lands Mastercard, Western Union on new dev platform
Solana leads the pack with 13 DApps ranking $1 million or more in revenue over the past 30 days. As a comparison, the runner-up Ethereum had 11 DApps, while BNB Chain and Base totaled 4 DApps each with $1 million or higher in monthly revenue. Thus, there is little evidence that the SOL price is bound to retest $75 solely because of lower network fees driven by weak DEX volumes.
DEX activity is a major driver of network fees, but the sustainability of protocols within the Solana ecosystem demonstrates that SOL is far from abandoned by investors.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
Solana Price Prediction: Interactive Brokers Supports SOL, Galaxy Doubles Down
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