Solana price has moved sideways in recent sessions, showing consolidation rather than decisive recovery. Despite this bounce, investor behavior suggests confidence remains limited across the broader crypto market.

The past 10 days have reflected relative stability within a defined trading range. However, stability has not translated into renewed accumulation. 

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Solana Is Losing New Holders’ Confidence

New Solana investors were the first to reduce activity. Addresses completing their first transaction on the network are classified as new addresses. Earlier this year, Solana recorded nearly 10 million new addresses at peak engagement.

Over the past four days, that number has declined by 23% to 7.62 million. The contraction signals a slowing of onboarding momentum. Reduced network expansion often reflects hesitation among prospective buyers waiting for clearer recovery signals.

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This pullback indicates that holders expect stronger upside confirmation before returning aggressively. Many appear unwilling to chase short-term rallies. Until consistent price appreciation emerges, onboarding growth may remain subdued.

Solana Holders Are Also Pulling Back

Exchange net position change data highlights a shift from buying to selling pressure. Green bars represent inflows to exchanges, which typically signal intent to sell during bearish phases. Recent readings show increasing transfers of SOL to trading platforms.

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Approximately 1.4 million SOL entered exchanges over the last 48 hours, worth around $117 million. Such inflows increase available supply on exchanges. Elevated balances can limit upside momentum if buyers fail to absorb distribution.

If SOL price continues rising, short-term holders may intensify profit-taking. That behavior often caps rallies in range-bound markets. Sustained inflows would reinforce consolidation rather than support a sustained breakout.

SOL Price Breakout Unlikely

Solana price remains range-bound between $89 resistance and $78 support. The current level at $86 places SOL near the midpoint of this channel. While the 10% daily gain improves sentiment, broader recovery remains uncertain.

Given slowing new address growth and rising exchange inflows, downside risk persists. A failure to hold $78 could send SOL toward $67. Such a move would confirm the continuation of the prevailing bearish structure.

If investors halt selling and inflows diminish, SOL could challenge $89 resistance. A breakout above that level may push the price toward $97. Sustained strength beyond $97 could target $105, invalidating the bearish thesis and signaling structural recovery.

Former SafeMoon CEO Braden Karony sentenced to 8 years for fraud tied to $9 million in misused liquidity funds.

Braden John Karony, SafeMoon’s former CEO, has been sentenced to 8 years in prison for his role in a multi-million dollar crypto fraud scheme.

U.S. District Judge Eric Komite handed out the judgment in a Brooklyn federal court after a jury convicted him in May 2025 following a three-week trial.

Details of The Sentencing

Court documents show that Karony was found guilty of conspiracy to commit securities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering. As part of the ruling, he has been ordered to forfeit approximately $7.5 million, while the amount of restitution to victims will be determined at a later date. The jury also issued a verdict instructing the forfeiture of two residential properties.

Meanwhile, one of his co-conspirators, Thomas Smith, pleaded guilty in February 2025 and is awaiting sentencing, while Kyle Nagy remains at large.

“Karony lied to investors from all walks of life—including military veterans and hard-working Americans—and defrauded thousands of victims in order to buy mansions, sports cars, and custom trucks,” said United States Attorney Joseph Nocella, Jr.

FBI Assistant Director in Charge James C. Barnacle said the former executive abused his position and betrayed investors’ trust by stealing more than $9 million in cryptocurrency to finance a lavish lifestyle. The proceeds were used to purchase luxury vehicles and real estate, including a $2.2 million home in Utah, additional homes in Kansas, a $277,000 Audi R8 sports car, a Tesla, a custom Ford F-550, and Jeep Gladiator pickup trucks.

IRS-CI New York Special Agent in Charge Harry T. Chavis added that Karony carried out the scheme by exploiting his access to SafeMoon’s liquidity pool while attempting to conceal the transactions, which law enforcement eventually traced, exposing the scheme.

Liquidity Pool Misrepresentations

SafeMoon tokens were launched in March 2021 by the firm on a public blockchain, with each transaction automatically subject to a 10% tax that was split into two 5% tranches. One was meant to be reflected to holders in proportion to their holdings, increasing their token balances, while the remaining 5% was designated for its pools to boost market liquidity.

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In the months following its debut, SafeMoon attracted millions of customers and reached a market capitalization exceeding $8 billion.

Prosecutors claim that Karony and his partners lied about important details of the company, including false statements that its reserves were locked and could not be used for personal reasons, that tokens would only be used for specific business purposes, that digital asset pairs would be added to the liquidity pool manually when trades occurred on certain exchanges, and that the developers were not using or trading SafeMoon for their own gain.

In reality, they retained access to the liquidity pools and diverted millions of dollars’ worth of crypto for personal enrichment.

The Digital Chamber, a leading cryptocurrency advocacy group, has urged the US Congress to preserve yield-generating capabilities for payment stablecoins.

In its latest proposal, the group argued that current legislative drafts in the CLARITY Act threaten to outlaw the fundamental mechanics of DeFi.

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Digital Chamber Urges Congress to Preserve Stablecoin Yields

The group specifically petitioned lawmakers to retain the exemptions in Section 404 of the proposed CLARITY Act.

These provisions distinguish between traditional “interest,” which banks pay on insured deposits, and other interest rates. They effectively separate this income from “rewards” derived from liquidity provision (LP) activities on decentralized exchanges.

The Chamber warned that removing these exemptions would not only stifle domestic innovation but also “undermine dollar dominance.”

The group posits that if US-regulated stablecoins are legally barred from participating in DeFi markets, global capital will inevitably flow to foreign-issued digital assets or unregulated offshore entities.

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This shift, they argue, would effectively reduce demand for the US dollar in the digital economy.

Furthermore, the advocacy group stressed that a total ban on yields would force users into passive holding strategies.

According to them, this could, ironically, increase financial exposure to “impermanent loss.” This is a risk associated with asset volatility in liquidity pools.

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Digital Chamber Offers Regulatory Concessions

Notably, the banking lobby contends that allowing stablecoins to offer yield without complying with banking capital requirements creates a dangerous arbitrage opportunity.

They argue that this regulatory gap threatens to destabilize the entire financial system. They also claimed that high-yield stablecoins would siphon liquidity away from community banks.

As a proposed compromise, the Chamber suggested mandating clear consumer disclosures to clarify that stablecoin yields are not comparable to bank interest rates and are not FDIC-insured.

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Additionally, they recommended that regulators conduct a federal “Deposit Impact” study two years after the bill becomes law.

The group argues that this empirical data will prove that stablecoins complement, rather than disrupt, the traditional banking sector.

The recommendations arrive as negotiations on a comprehensive market-structure bill (CLARITY Act) reach a critical impasse.

A high-stakes meeting at the White House earlier this week between banking representatives and cryptocurrency executives reportedly ended in deadlock.

Wall Street lobbyists remain staunchly opposed to any measure that would allow non-bank stablecoin issuers to pass yields to customers, viewing such products as a direct threat to the traditional depository model.

Bitcoin price is attempting another breakout toward $70,000 after weeks of choppy consolidation. BTC trades at $69,815 at publication, sitting just below the $70,610 resistance level. The largest cryptocurrency is trying to recover recent losses, yet mixed on-chain and derivatives signals present an uncertain short-term outlook.

Market participants are closely watching this psychological threshold. A sustained move above $70,000 could shift sentiment decisively. However, persistent bearish positioning suggests that volatility may intensify before a clear trend emerges.

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Bitcoin Shorts Resemble The Past

Aggregated funding rate data across major crypto exchanges shows an extreme surge in short positioning. Current negative funding levels are the deepest since August 2024. That period ultimately marked a significant Bitcoin bottom.

In August 2024, traders crowded into downside bets as funding rates plunged. Instead of continuing lower, Bitcoin reversed sharply. The reversal triggered widespread short liquidations and fueled an approximately 83% rally over the following four months.

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Deeply negative funding rates signal heavy bearish positioning and widespread fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). While this setup does not guarantee immediate upside, it creates a fragile structure. If price rises, forced short-covering could amplify volatility and accelerate upward momentum.

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Bitcoin Towards Capitulation

The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL, indicator has returned to the Hope/Fear zone near 0.18. This reading shows that profit cushions among holders are thin. When NUPL enters this regime, market behavior tends to become reactive.

Historically, declines into this zone often preceded extended weakness. Panic selling typically intensifies before a durable bottom forms. Unless capitulation resets sentiment, Bitcoin may remain vulnerable to deeper pullbacks before stabilizing.

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What Does The Short-Term Outlook Look Like?

Short-term technical cues suggest improving momentum. The Chaikin Money Flow, which measures capital inflows and outflows, is approaching the zero line. A confirmed move into positive territory would signal renewed demand for Bitcoin.

Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is nearing a bullish crossover. A confirmed crossover would indicate a shift from bearish to bullish momentum. However, early signals require validation through sustained price strength.

Even with improving indicators, broader sentiment remains cautious. Shorts are unlikely to close voluntarily under weak conditions. This dynamic increases the probability that a price-driven liquidation event becomes the catalyst for recovery.

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BTC Price Needs a Strong Push

Bitcoin trades at $69,815 and remains capped below $70,610 resistance. The $70,000 level represents a critical psychological barrier. A decisive close above this threshold could trigger renewed bullish momentum and attract fresh capital inflows.

However, bearish pressure persists in derivatives markets. Continued dominance of short contracts could keep BTC below $70,000. A breakdown below $65,156 support may trigger long liquidations and intensify downside volatility.

If Bitcoin secures strong investor support and overcomes selling pressure above $70,000, upside targets emerge. A rally toward $73,499 could develop quickly.

Sustained strength may extend gains toward $76,685, invalidating the bearish thesis and confirming a broader recovery attempt.

Blockchain technology is increasingly being viewed as a practical backbone for distributing social benefits, though regulatory guardrails remain a central challenge for governments testing on-chain tools. In the Marshall Islands, guidance from Guidepost Solutions on regulatory compliance and sanctions framework accompanies the rollout of a tokenized debt instrument known as USDM1, issued by the state and backed 1:1 by short-term U.S. Treasuries. Separately, the country launched a Universal Basic Income (UBI) program in November 2025, delivering quarterly payments directly to citizens via a mobile wallet. As proponents point out, digital delivery can accelerate provisioning and provide auditable trails for expenditures, but the path to widescale adoption is entangled with anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) requirements that regulators say are non-negotiable.

Key takeaways

• Tokenized government debt is expanding, with asset-backed bonds that settle rapidly and offer fractional ownership gaining traction in pilots and policy discussions.
• The Marshall Islands’ UBI program, distributed through a digital wallet since November 2025, exemplifies how on-chain tools can reach citizens directly, pending robust AML/KYC controls.
• Regulators view AML and sanctions compliance as the largest risk in issuing on-chain bonds to the public, underscoring the need for rigorous oversight in tokenized finance.
• Data show a sharp rise in tokenized U.S. Treasuries, illustrating growing demand for programmable settlement and auditable fund flows in public debt markets.
• Analysts forecast meaningful growth for the tokenized bond market, with projections pointing to hundreds of billions of dollars by decade’s end, contingent on regulatory clarity.

Market context: The push toward tokenized government debt and on-chain social benefits sits amid a broader push to modernize public finance and expand financial inclusion. Jurisdictions are piloting tokenized instruments to cut settlement times and reduce transaction costs, while also grappling with the necessary compliance architecture. The United Kingdom has taken a parallel step, with HSBC appointed for a tokenized gilt pilot, signaling cross-border interest in the model. Data from Token Terminal indicate the tokenized U.S. Treasury market has grown more than 50-fold since 2024, highlighting the rapid shift toward on-chain finance in a $X trillion debt ecosystem. Analysts, including Lamine Brahimi, co-founder of Taurus SA, project the tokenized bond market could surge to around $300 billion by 2030, a forecast that reflects both demand for digital liquidity tools and the continuing need for robust governance.

Why it matters

The Marshall Islands’ approach illustrates how tokenization can reshape public finance and social programs alike. By backing a debt instrument 1:1 with short-term U.S. Treasuries and tying it to a regulatory framework shaped by a risk-focused compliance firm, the government aims to attract legitimate investment while maintaining guardrails against misuse. The on-chain UBI experiment is a practical testbed for direct-to-citizen distributions, where quarterly payments flow through a digital wallet rather than traditional channels. The potential benefits—faster disbursement, traceable expenditure lines, and a more inclusive financial system—could extend beyond the Marshall Islands, offering a blueprint for other nations seeking to streamline welfare programs and debt issuance through programmable money.

However, the regulatory reality remains central. AML requirements and sanctions screening are highlighted by experts as the most significant obstacles to broad adoption. Governments issuing tokenized bonds must collect know-your-customer information to ensure funds reach the intended beneficiaries, while also ensuring that sanctions regimes are not breached through on-chain channels. The tension between innovation and compliance is not unique to the Marshall Islands; it is echoed in wider discussions about tokenization of public assets and the need for robust, interoperable standards that can scale across borders without compromising security or oversight.

From an investor and builder perspective, the narrative is equally nuanced. Tokenization promises near-instant settlement and fractional ownership, expanding access to assets that were previously illiquid or inaccessible to ordinary individuals. The growth in the tokenized debt market, as tracked by data platforms like Token Terminal, is often cited as evidence that digital-native debt instruments can coexist with traditional markets while offering new forms of liquidity and programmability. Yet the same data underline that progress hinges on a stable policy environment—one that defines privacy, censorship-resistance, anti-fraud controls, and cross-border enforcement mechanisms. The broader ecosystem’s trajectory will be shaped by how quickly regulators can translate principles into scalable, enforceable rules without stifling innovation.

In parallel, pilots such as the UK gilt initiative and other tokenization efforts illustrate that government-sponsored projects are moving from theory toward real-world applications. The combination of digital governance with financial instrumentation could unlock new funding channels and enable more responsive social programs, provided that the operational and legal frameworks keep pace with technological capability. This synthesis—technological potential matched with disciplined compliance—will determine whether tokenized debt and on-chain welfare tools become enduring components of public finance or remain transient experiments.

What to watch next

• Progress and results from the Marshall Islands’ UBI wallet rollout and any regulatory updates on AML/KYC standards for on-chain benefits.
• Monitoring the UK’s tokenized gilt pilot and any published findings on feasibility, costs, and investor interest.
• Updates to tokenized debt instrument frameworks and sanctions regimes as more governments explore issuance and distribution through blockchain rails.
• New data releases from Token Terminal and other analytics firms tracking growth in tokenized government debt and on-chain settlements.
• Prominent forecasts, such as Taurus SA’s projection of a $300 billion tokenized bond market by 2030, and any revisions based on policy or market developments.

Sources & verification

• Guidance from Guidepost Solutions to the Marshall Islands government on regulatory compliance and sanctions for USDM1 tokenized debt instruments (tokenized debt instrument reference).
• Marshall Islands’ Universal Basic Income program launch in November 2025 via a digital wallet (UBI program reference).
• Analysis and data on the tokenized U.S. Treasuries market growth since 2024 from Token Terminal (growth reference).
• Forecast by Lamine Brahimi, co-founder of Taurus SA, that tokenized bonds could reach $300 billion by 2030 (market forecast reference).
• On-chain debt instrument and tokenized government debt discussions and related policy pilots, including RWA.XYZ and UK gilt pilot context (verification references).

Tokenized debt, digital governance, and the path to inclusive finance

The effort to tokenize government debt and deliver social benefits on-chain sits at the intersection of efficiency, transparency, and risk management. The Marshall Islands’ USDM1 project showcases how a regulatory framework can be crafted to support tokenized debt while maintaining strong sanctions and AML controls. The accompanying UBI initiative demonstrates a pragmatic use case for digital wallets as a means of distributing welfare benefits with auditable spending trails, potentially reducing delays and leakage that can accompany traditional channels. In parallel, the broader market signals—rapid growth in tokenized U.S. Treasuries, governance pilots in the UK, and ambitious market projections—underscore growing institutional and public interest in tokenization as a means to reimagine public finance and social programs. Yet the narrative remains contingent on a reliable compliance scaffold: one that balances innovation with rigorous risk management to safeguard funds and protect citizens. As policymakers, technologists, and financial actors navigate this evolving terrain, the defining question will be whether these on-chain instruments can deliver measurable benefits at scale without compromising the integrity of the financial system.

Blockchain technology is an effective medium for administering social benefit programs, but key compliance challenges remain, according to Julie Myers Wood, CEO of compliance and monitoring consulting firm Guidepost Solutions.

Guidepost Solutions advised the Republic of the Marshall Islands’ government on a regulatory compliance and sanctions framework for its USDM1 bond, a tokenized debt instrument issued by the government, backed 1:1 by short-term US Treasuries.

The Marshall Islands government launched a Universal Basic Income (UBI) program in November 2025 that distributes quarterly benefits to citizens directly through a mobile wallet. Wood told Cointelegraph:

“Any benefit that is currently being distributed through analog means should be explored for a digital delivery option for several reasons. Digital delivery speeds up the process and can provide an auditable trail for provisioning and expenditures.”

Several governments are exploring tokenized debt instruments and administering social benefit programs onchain to eliminate settlement delays and costly transaction fees inherent in traditional finance by disintermediating the issuing and clearing process.

Related: UK government appoints HSBC for tokenized bond pilot

Regulatory compliance and sanctions challenges remain as the tokenized bond market grows

The cost reduction and near-instant settlement times for tokenized bonds and other onchain instruments democratize access to the financial system for individuals who lack access to traditional banking infrastructure.

However, anti-money laundering (AML) requirements and sanctions compliance are two of the biggest regulatory risks for governments issuing onchain bonds to the public, Wood told Cointelegraph.

Governments issuing tokenized bonds must also collect know-your-customer (KYC) information to ensure that funds are directed to the proper recipients, she added.

The tokenized US Treasury market grew by over 50x since 2024, according to data from crypto analysis platform Token Terminal.

The tokenized bond market could surge to $300 billion, according to a forecast from Lamine Brahimi, co-founder of Taurus SA,  an enterprise-focused digital asset services company.

Reduced settlement times, transaction costs and asset fractionalization, which allows individuals to purchase fractions of a financial asset, all expand investor access to the global financial system, Brahimi told Cointelegraph.

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