Bitcoin briefly dipped below $72,000 on Thursday morning in early Asian trading hours, hitting its lowest level in nearly 16 months. As the selloff deepens, prediction market traders on Polymarket are rapidly repricing their expectations — and the data paints a sobering picture for the short term, even as longer-term optimism persists.

Polymarket’s real-money contracts show a market caught between defending $70,000 as a floor and clinging to $100,000 in annual returns.

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February Outlook: $70K Is the Line in the Sand

Polymarket’s February Bitcoin price contract, with 24 days remaining and nearly $1.78 million in volume on the $70,000 target alone, tells a clear story.

The $70,000 contract surged to 74% probability — up 65% — making it the most heavily traded target for the month. Upside expectations have collapsed: the $85,000 contract plunged 61% to just 29%, while $90,000 sits at 12% and $95,000 at only 7%.

On the downside, the $65,000 contract dropped 13% to 39%, while $60,000 holds at 19%. Probabilities of a crash below $55,000 are in the single digits. The implied range for February is $65,000–$85,000, with $70,000 as the most probable point.

2026 Annual Contract: Still Bullish, but Fraying

The longer-term Polymarket contract shows a more nuanced picture. The $100,000 level has a 55% probability but is down 29%, while $110,000 is at 42% and down 29%. These are significant declines from just weeks ago, when traders were pricing in a continuation of 2025’s rally.

The $65,000 contract for 2026 surged 24% to 83% with over $1 million in volume — the highest on the board — signaling traders are focused on downside protection rather than upside speculation. The upper curve drops steeply: $130,000 at 20%, $140,000 at 15%, and $250,000 near 5%.

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What’s Driving the Selloff

Bitcoin was trading at approximately $73,199 at the time of writing, after briefly dipping below $72,000 earlier Thursday. The token has fallen 16% year-to-date and roughly 40% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.

Multiple factors are converging: rising geopolitical tensions, lingering data gaps from last fall’s record 43-day government shutdown, and a hawkish Federal Reserve chair nomination, strengthening the dollar

The technical damage has been severe. Over $5.4 billion in liquidations have occurred since late January, pushing open interest to a nine-month low. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled capital for most of the past three weeks, with outflows of $817 million on January 29, $509 million on January 30, and $272 million on February 3, punctuated by a single $561 million inflow day on February 2. Total net assets across spot Bitcoin ETFs have fallen from over $128 billion in mid-January to $97 billion.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has plunged to 12 — deep in “Extreme Fear” and its lowest since November 2025. Gold, meanwhile, has surged past $5,000 per ounce, underscoring a broad rotation into safe havens.

The Bottom Line

Polymarket’s data offers a real-time window into how traders with money on the line are positioned. February expectations center on $65,000–$85,000 with almost no chance of reclaiming $95,000.

The annual contract is more forgiving, with a slim majority still expecting $100,000 sometime in 2026. But even that conviction is weakening. For now, $70,000 is the number everyone is watching.

Ripple integrates Hyperliquid for its prime brokerage solution.

Hyperliquid seems to be the talk of the town lately, and Ripple just announced that its Ripple Prime brokerage platform will support the perp DEX. In other words, the firm’s institutional clients will be able to access on-chain derivatives while cross-margining their exposure to decentralized finance with all other assets that are supported by Ripple Prime.

These include cleared derivatives, OTC swaps, fixed income, forex, and other digital assets.

According to the official release, “clients can access Hyperliquid liquidity while benefiting from a single counterparty relationship.”

Speaking on the matter was Michael Higgins, the international CEO of Ripple Primer, who said:

“At Ripple Prime, we are excited to continue leading the way in merging decentralized finance with traditional prime brokerage services, offering direct support to trading, yield generation, and a wider range of digital assets. This strategic extension of our prime brokerage platform into DeFi will enhance our clients’ access to liquidity, providing the greater efficiency and innovation that our institutional clients demand.”

Ripple continues to expand its product offering while also working on licensing and regulatory issues worldwide. Recently, they secured a preliminary electronic money institution license in Luxembourg.

The move to integrate Hyperliquid into their prime brokerage solution also comes at a time when the decentralized perpetual futures exchange is attracting billions in daily volumes across a variety of assets, providing the deepest on-chain liquidity order book in the industry.

[PRESS RELEASE – George town, Cayman Islands, February 4th, 2026]

Tramplin, a premium staking platform built on Solana, backed by iTreasury Ventures, today announced its public launch, introducing a proven real-world savings model rebuilt for crypto.

Built on Solana’s native staking architecture, Tramplin features a premium bonds-inspired reward redistribution mechanism designed to give smaller SOL holders access to meaningful upside without compromising capital safety.

By collecting staking rewards and redistributing them probabilistically, Tramplin creates opportunities for potential outsized returns while ensuring users retain full control of their principal.

The project’s mission is to empower SOL holders—the backbone of the Solana ecosystem—by offering upside potential previously accessible only to large stakeholders. During its test phase, Tramplin observed periods of elevated effective APY for small stakers, driven by initial committed stake and redistribution dynamics.

Market Context

The idea behind Tramplin originated in a broader concern about how retail users have participated in crypto over the past market cycles.

Since 2021, a significant share of new activity has been driven by memecoin speculation, extreme leverage, and short-term trading models where smaller participants consistently enter late and exit at a disadvantage.

Rather than creating long-term value, much of the market has become optimized for volatility and rapid capital redistribution, often resulting in systematic losses for retail users.

Built on Native Staking, Without Added Risk

Tramplin operates entirely within Solana’s native staking framework, with users delegating directly to the validator node and no smart-contract custody or counterparty risk.

By combining provably fair randomness (via VRF), Merkle-based transparency, and the security of native staking, Tramplin is designed to make staking more engaging, equitable, and accessible, without introducing new risk vectors.

Public Launch and Partner Program

Alongside its launch, Tramplin is opening its Strategic Partner Program, inviting creators, analysts, auditors, and ecosystem builders to participate in reviewing, validating, and sharing the protocol with their communities.

The Partner Program is designed to offer a low-overhead, transparent alternative to running a private validator, while preserving Solana’s native security model.

The program features audit-first transparency, lifetime revenue sharing, and community Boost Points. Additional details about Tramplin and its Partner Program are available at https://tramplin.io

About Tramplin

Tramplin is a premium staking platform built on Solana with verifiable and random distribution of outsized rewards.

Founded in early 2025, Tramplin’s mission is to empower SOL holders — the backbone of the Solana ecosystem — with opportunities traditionally reserved for whales, without compromising capital safety.

Tramplin is backed by iTreasury ventures, an early investor in Solana, Polkadot, and several other category-defining blockchain projects.

TLDR

• Joseph Vafi from Canaccord has reduced his MSTR stock price target by 61%.
• The new MSTR stock price target is now set at $185, down from $474.
• Vafi still maintains a buy rating despite the steep cut in his price estimate.
• Strategy’s stock has dropped 15% in 2026 and 62% over the past year.
• The company’s value is now closely tied to the performance of Bitcoin.

As the ongoing crypto winter continues, investors are looking for signs that the bearish trend has reached its peak. A notable update comes from Canaccord’s Joseph Vafi, who dramatically slashed his price target on Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) stock. Vafi reduced his target by 61%, setting it at $185 from the previous $474, reflecting the significant impact of the current market conditions.

Strategy (MSTR) Faces Setback Amid Market Volatility

Joseph Vafi’s revised price target fo MSTR stock marks a stark change in outlook. After maintaining a bullish stance on the stock just a few months ago, Vafi is now adjusting his expectations to reflect the ongoing struggles within the crypto space. The analyst still holds a buy rating on the stock, despite the massive cut in his price target.

Strategy Inc, MSTR

At $185, the new target implies about 40% upside from the most recent closing price of $133. However, this outlook comes after Strategy has suffered significant losses, down 15% year-to-date, 62% year-over-year, and 72% from its record high in November 2024. The bearish trend is in line with the broader decline in the cryptocurrency market, which has faced immense pressure over the past year.

Bitcoin’s Ongoing Struggles Impact MSTR Stock

In his analysis, Vafi pointed to Bitcoin’s “identity crisis” as a key factor in the struggles of MSTR. While Bitcoin is still seen as a long-term store of value, its recent price movements resemble that of a risk asset, making it more susceptible to volatility. “Bitcoin is increasingly trading like a risk asset rather than a safe-haven asset,” Vafi remarked, highlighting how the cryptocurrency failed to track with precious metals like gold.

The Bitcoin-led company Strategy has been hit hard by these developments. Despite holding more than $44 billion in Bitcoin, the company has seen its market cap drop to levels close to its Bitcoin holdings. This correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the stock’s performance has made Strategy’s financial health more reliant on the digital asset’s price fluctuations than anticipated.

MSTR’s Near-Complete Dependence on Bitcoin

With Bitcoin’s price fluctuations dominating its financial outlook, quarterly results for MSTR have become less relevant. Investors are increasingly focused on the value of the company’s Bitcoin holdings rather than its operational performance. The upcoming quarterly results are expected to show a sizable unrealized loss due to Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter selloff.

Vafi’s revised price target assumes a 20% rebound in Bitcoin prices, which would help stabilize Strategy’s mNAV. However, the stock’s future remains closely tied to Bitcoin’s performance in the coming months. Despite this, Vafi remains optimistic, stating that Strategy is still built to weather volatility, given its strong Bitcoin position.

Multicoin Capital’s co-founder, Kyle Samani, said he is stepping down as managing partner of the crypto investment firm after 10 years in the industry. 

Samani called it a “bittersweet moment” in a post on Wednesday, adding, “I am excited to take some time off and explore new areas of technology,” which he later revealed would include AI and robotics.

He added that he is “more confident than ever that crypto is going to fundamentally rewire the circuitry of finance.”

“The Clarity Act will unlock a tidal wave of new entrants and spur adoption unlike anything we’ve seen,” Samani said, adding that he is particularly bullish on Solana and intends to continue making personal investments in the space and supporting Multicoin portfolio companies.

However, the post appears to conflict with a reportedly deleted earlier X post, in which he stated: “I once believed in the web3 vision. dapps. I don’t anymore…Crypto is just fundamentally not as interesting as many crypto enthusiasts wanted. Myself included.” 

Samani has previously criticized the Bitcoin and Ethereum ecosystems.

Last month, Samani said discovering Ethereum was his “entry into crypto” in 2016, after becoming convinced by permissionless finance and smart contracts.

However, he later lost faith in Ethereum, saying he was dissatisfied with how Ethereum developers addressed scaling.

Samani helped turn Multicoin into a $5.9 billion company

He came across the Solana shortly after founding Multicoin in May 2017, which went on to lead some of Solana’s earliest investment rounds in 2018.