Why a Bitcoin Surge to $105K Is Unlikely Amid Global Economic Challenges

Bitcoin Faces Cautious Momentum Amid Geopolitical and Market Uncertainties

Bitcoin recently surged past $97,000, reaching levels not seen in over 60 days, buoyed by significant inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, despite the upward momentum, market analysis suggests that broader risks and derivative market signals temper expectations for sustained gains. Investors remain wary amid geopolitical tensions, declining treasury yields, and subdued equity performance, constraining Bitcoin’s upward potential in the near term.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin’s recent rally above $97,000 is not yet confirmed by derivatives indicators, with options skew signaling caution amongst traders.
• Geopolitical tensions, especially involving Iran protests and US foreign policy plans, contribute to heightened risk aversion.
• Falling US treasury yields and a weaker Nasdaq Index point to a risk-off environment that limits speculative upside.
• Market sentiment remains mixed, with professional traders displaying skepticism over a quick push beyond $105,000.

Tickers mentioned: Bitcoin, Nasdaq

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Negative. The overall risk environment and derivative signals suggest limited momentum for sustained bullish runs.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. Given prevailing uncertainties, it’s prudent to observe further confirmations before committing new positions.

Market context: These developments come amid broader macroeconomic pressures and geopolitical tensions, influencing investor confidence across asset classes.

Market Dynamics and Technical Indicators

Bitcoin’s price has climbed past $97,000 following an influx of approximately $840 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs over two days. Despite this, the futures and options markets paint a cautious picture. The options delta skew remains at 4%, unchanged from a week earlier, signaling persistent skepticism among institutional traders regarding a rapid rally beyond the $100,000 mark.

Market participants have encountered substantial liquidations, with leveraged short positions totaling $370 million over two days— the highest since October 2025. This tumult reflects traders’ cautious stance and the influence of macro factors beyond crypto-specific catalysts. Notably, geopolitical tensions—specifically protests in Iran and US threats of tariffs—have led to a risk-averse environment, reducing appetite for speculative assets.

Yields on the US 2-year Treasury fell to 3.51%, reflecting investor preference for safer assets amid inflation concerns. Meanwhile, equity markets show continued weakness, with the Nasdaq failing to reclaim the 26,000 levels seen in early November 2025. This environment underscores the broader risk-off sentiment impacting Bitcoin’s prospects.

Amid these macro and geopolitical concerns, notable figures like Warren Buffett have expressed worry over the uncertain future of artificial intelligence and its broader economic implications, further amplifying cautious investor sentiment. Berkshire Hathaway’s cash holdings surged past $381.7 billion, indicating a preference for safety and liquidity.

In summary, while Bitcoin’s recent price action hints at potential upside, multiple market indicators and external risks point toward a cautious approach. Traders and investors remain vigilant, awaiting clearer signals that could confirm a sustained rally beyond current resistance levels.