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Why US PMI Expansion Is Raising Hopes for a Bitcoin Bull Rally

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US ISM Manufacturing PMI For January 2026

The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reached 52.6 in January 2026, breaking above the critical 50 level for the first time in a year.

The January reading marks a shift from contraction to expansion. Investors and analysts are now exploring links between manufacturing PMI trends and Bitcoin price cycles.

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US PMI Breaks Expansion Threshold After Year-Long Slump

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is a closely watched economic gauge that offers an early snapshot of the health of the US manufacturing sector. The index is released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

It is based on surveys of purchasing managers across the country. These executives report on changes in new orders, production levels, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories, providing real-time insight into factory activity.

The PMI is measured on a scale from 0 to 100. A reading above 50 signals expansion in manufacturing activity, while a figure below 50 points to contraction.

In January 2026, the ISM Manufacturing PMI beat forecasts, rising to 52.6 from 47.9 in December 2025. This marked the strongest reading since August 2022 and signaled a return to expansion after nearly a year of contraction.

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US ISM Manufacturing PMI For January 2026
US ISM Manufacturing PMI For January 2026. Source: Trading Economics

It was also the first time the index moved above the 50 threshold since January 2025. The 4.6-point jump represents a notable turnaround in sentiment within the manufacturing sector.

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What Does Manufacturing PMI Expansion Mean for Bitcoin?

The latest rebound in the US Manufacturing PMI has fueled optimism across the crypto community. The key question is: why? Analysts suggest that periods of PMI expansion have often coincided with major Bitcoin rallies.

Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe echoed a similar view, pointing out that previous Bitcoin and crypto bull markets tended to unfold when the PMI remained above the 50 level.

With the index now back in expansion territory, he suggested that macro conditions could once again support sustained upside momentum across the digital asset market.

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“The previous bull markets on Bitcoin and Crypto happened when it was above 50. We came from the longest period <50 without a recession. It’s time for Bitcoin to shine. We’re a lot closer to the end of the bear market,” he wrote.

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Crypto analyst TheRealPlanC also argued that Bitcoin should be analyzed through a broader macroeconomic and business-cycle framework, rather than relying solely on the traditional four-year halving narrative.

“If you don’t upgrade your understanding of the Bitcoin cycle from the 4-year halving mirage mindset to a business cycle / macro mindset fast… You will miss the boat completely on the second massive leg of this Bitcoin bull market!” the post read.

Manufacturing PMI: Monetary Policy Indicator, Not a Direct Bitcoin Catalyst

Some analysts caution that the PMI surge is not a direct driver of Bitcoin price action. Brett argued that the index mainly signals future monetary policy changes. Understanding this difference is key to expectations around the crypto market.

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“ISM is not a 1:1 indicator for Bitcoin. It’s a better indicator of future Fed policy,” he said.

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Brett noted that while the reading is broadly bullish for the economy, it carries an important caveat for markets. A stronger ISM typically reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Historically, periods in which the ISM remains in expansion territory have seen the Fed more inclined to pause or even hike rates rather than pivot toward easing. Higher interest rates are generally unfavorable for crypto markets. Tighter financial conditions tend to reduce liquidity and dampen risk appetite for assets like Bitcoin.

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The analyst also pointed to several historical divergences between Bitcoin and the index. In 2014 to 2015 and again in 2018 to 2019, ISM readings ranged from 52 to 59, yet Bitcoin entered extended bear markets.

Conversely, from 2023 to 2025, the ISM stayed below 50 for roughly two years while Bitcoin surged by around 700%.

With the outlook split, the coming months will be key in determining whether the improvement in US manufacturing activity translates into a sustained Bitcoin recovery or remains a macro signal with limited impact on crypto prices.

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ETF that feasts on carnage in MSTR hits record high

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ETF that feasts on carnage in MSTR hits record high

There’s always a bull market somewhere.

While bitcoin and shares of bitcoin holder Strategy are falling, an exchange-traded fund designed to move in the opposite direction of MSTR and double its daily change has hit a record high.

That exchange-traded fund is the GraniteShares 2x Short MSTR Daily ETF, trading under the ticker MSDD on Nasdaq. It is an actively managed fund designed to deliver -200% of the Strategy’s daily performance. In simple terms, if MSTR falls 2% in a day, the ETF targets a 4% gain that same day (before fees/decay).

The fund debuted on Jan. 10, 2025 and is seen as a high-risk short-term tactical tool for bears betting against MSTR. And it has lived up to its repute.

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MSDD’s price hit a record high of $114 on Tuesday, up 13.5% on the year, extending the past year’s 275% surge, according to data source TradingView.

MSDD’s compatriot, the Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (SMST), also clocked an 11-month high of $113 on Tuesday. This fund debuted on Nasdaq in August 2024.

In other words, MSTR bears out there who loaded up on these ETFs have made a killing.

Strategy fell to $126 on Tuesday, the lowest since September 2024, extending its multi-month bear market. The stock is now down a staggering 76% from its lifetime high of $543 in November last year.

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Strategy is the world’s largest publicly listed bitcoin holder, stashing 713,502 BTC ($54.24 billion) at press time. Naturally, its share price tends to follow swings in bitcoin’s market value.

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, has dropped 12% this year and traded as low as $73,000 on Tuesday. That was the weakest since late 2024. Since then, prices have bounced back to $76,000, thanks to narrowly approved funding package that alleviated near-term U.S. shutdown risk and stabilized risk sentiment in financial markets.

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Why Cardano Investors Are Moving Assets to Self-Custody Now

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ADA Price


“Currently, a 10 billion market cap, this thing is not even worth $1 billion,” one X user argued.

The latest cryptocurrency market crash was brutal, sending Cardano’s ADA to multi-month lows.

Some analysts believe the storm may not be over, warning the price could nosedive by as much as 75% in the short term.

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The Bad Days for the Bulls Aren’t Over?

Several hours ago, ADA plunged to 0.27, the lowest level since August 2024. Currently, it trades at around $0.29 (per CoinGecko’s data), representing a 15% decline on a weekly scale.

ADA Price
ADA Price, Source: CoinGecko

The well-known analyst DrBullZeus claimed that the asset is now nearing “a must hold support zone” at the range of $0.24-$0.28. He thinks that breaking below that level could result in a price crash to $0.125 and even $0.075.

The popular trader Matthew Dixon also chipped in. He suggested that “technically speaking,” ADA has retraced in three waves since the local top seen towards the end of 2024. He outlined $0.24 as a “very important long-term support,” predicting that as long as it holds, the price could rebound.

“A break of support would be a serious concern,” he alerted.

Prior to that, Harmonic Trader predicted that in six months, ADA might trade under $0.10. “Currently, a 10 billion market cap, this thing is not even worth $1 billion,” they argued.

Time to Rally?

Despite ADA’s recent price decline, some other analysts remain optimistic that a resurgence could be on the way. One of them, using the X nickname “Lucky,” asked their almost two million followers whether they plan to increase their exposure to the token at current rates. The analyst also envisioned a potential pump to nearly $1 in the near future.

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LaPetite is also bullish. Several days ago, he forecasted that ADA is about to go “parabolic,” claiming that “huge announcements” concerning Cardano are coming soon.

The recent exchange netflows signal that a rebound could indeed be on the horizon. Data provided by CoinGlass shows that over the past days and weeks, outflows have significantly outpaced inflows. This means investors have been shifting from centralized platforms to self-custody, which in turn reduces immediate selling pressure.

ADA Exchange Netflow
ADA Exchange Netflow, Source: CoinGlass
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Aave Shutters Avara Brand and Family Crypto Wallet

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Aave Shutters Avara Brand and Family Crypto Wallet

Aave Labs says it is sunsetting its “umbrella brand” Avara in the company’s latest move to refocus on decentralized finance and simplify its branding.

Aave founder and CEO Stani Kulechov posted to X on Tuesday that Avara, a company encompassing projects including the Family crypto wallet and previously the social media platform Lens, “is no longer required as we go all in on bringing Aave to the masses.”

Kulechov said the Apple iOS-based Family crypto wallet was also being wound down as the team has “learned that onboarding millions of users requires purpose-built experiences, such as savings, rather than generic, open-ended wallet experiences.”

The move marks Aave’s latest effort to refocus on products such as its flagship lending protocol as the project handed stewardship of Lens to the Mask Network last month, with Kulechov saying Aave’s role in the protocol would be reduced to an advisory role so it can focus on DeFi.

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Source: Stani Kulechov

Kulechov said in his latest post that Aave was “now united as one team of world-class designers, engineers, and smart contract experts, aligned around a single mission: bringing DeFi to everyone.”

All future projects under Aave Labs

Avara said in a blog post that “all current and future products, including the Aave App, Aave Pro, and Aave Kit, will operate under Aave Labs” to simplify the brand.

It added that accounts linked to the Family wallets “will continue as core infrastructure within Aave Labs products,” but the iOS app would be wound down over the next year.

No new users will be onboarded to the app from April 1, and existing users can continue using the app until April 1, 2027, and will continue to have full access to their funds on Aave’s website.

Related: There is no trust in DeFi without proper risk management

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Aave is the biggest DeFi protocol with $30 billion in total value locked, nearly $9 billion more than the next largest project, the staking protocol Lido, which has $21.7 billion in value locked, according to DefiLlama.