Crypto World
Wikipedia vs. On-Chain: Why Jimmy Wales’ Bitcoin Bubble Call Clashes With Polymarket Data
Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales is calling Bitcoin a bubble again. In a recent tweet on X, Wales predicted the asset would collapse to $10,000 by 2050, dismissing the trillion-dollar network as a “complete failure” of a currency that serves no real human purpose.
The market is taking the other side of that trade. Polymarket bettors and traders are currently pricing in a roughly 66% probability of continued upside, with millions in volume backing a bullish trajectory rather than a collapse. Smart money is betting on expansion, not extinction.
This creates a sharp divergence between a famous tech skeptic and the actual localized market sentiment driving price action.
Key Takeaways
- The Skeptic: Jimmy Wales predicts a crash to $10,000, calling the asset a failure.
- The Data: Prediction markets signal a 66% confidence in bullish continuation.
- The Divergence: On-chain volume and ETF flows contradict the “bubble” narrative.
The Bear Case: Wales Predicts Bitcoin Bubble Bursts to $10K
Wales’ argument is not new, but his timeline is specific. He posits that Bitcoin will slowly bleed out to $10,000 by 2050 as the “bubble” deflates relative to inflation and utility.
Speaking recently, he characterized the banking system’s engagement with crypto as predatory rather than supportive, suggesting institutions are merely extracting fees before the inevitable collapse.
This narrative echoes his past predictions that have largely failed to materialize. Yet, it resonates with a segment of the market concerned about sustainability.
Wales argues that without being an effective medium of exchange, the store-of-value proposition is hollow.
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What Polymarket Is Actually Saying
Prediction markets offer a quantified rebuttal to opinion. On Polymarket, the leading decentralized prediction platform, the odds tell a story of confidence.
Contracts tracking Bitcoin’s price trajectory show a dominant preference for higher targets in 2024 and 2025.
The majority of Polymarket bettors believe the bull case is remaining intact, although they have different ideas about where the ceiling might be.
A staggering 86% see bitcoin rising to $75,000 contrasting with 71% who see it falling down to $55,000, a level described as a plausible bear case by Standard Chartered and CryptoQuant analysts.
Additionally, institutions are still quietly doubling down on Bitcoin. Both Strategy and Metaplanet revealed they intend to keep adding to their BTC treasuries.
If Wales is right, the industry smart money is spectacularly wrong. But if the market is right, Wales is fighting a phenomenon fueled by many billions in institutional treasuries and ETF liquidity.
On-Chain Data: Accumulation or Distribution?
To settle the debate, Bitcoin analysis must turn to the blockchain itself. Current on-chain metrics show a stark difference from the 2017 or 2021 tops.
Exchange reserves are deepening their multi-year downtrend. Coins are moving off exchanges into cold storage, a signal that usually precedes supply shocks.
This accumulation is apparent globally. Whales are not distributing into this rally; they are buying the dips.
The recent defense of the $60,000 level proves this. When $370 million in long liquidations flushed the market, buyers stepped in immediately.
That is not the behavior of a popping bubble. It is the behavior of a market establishing a new fair value.
Will the Bitcoin Bubble Burst? The Million Dollar Question
The technical structure for Bitcoin remains constructively bullish as long as it doesn’t slip below the $60,000 support block. A move down to $55k opens the road to further new bottoms.
In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin rose 4% to trade near $68,200 at the time of writing. The next big milestone will be $75k, the preferred price target for most Polymarket bettors, and an indication of its psychological significance.
Clear that, and price discovery mode begins. However, if the broader crypto market weakens, a retest of $62,000 and the threat of a collapse down to $55k hang ominously over the industry.
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The post Wikipedia vs. On-Chain: Why Jimmy Wales’ Bitcoin Bubble Call Clashes With Polymarket Data appeared first on Cryptonews.
A federal judge has blocked the state of Arizona from bringing criminal charges against prediction market provider Kalshi, at least temporarily, in response to a motion from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
District Judge Michael Liburdi, in the District of Arizona, ruled Friday that Arizona cannot hold an arraignment of Kalshi as scheduled on Monday, April 13. Arizona announced last month it would file 20 criminal charges against Kalshi for offering what the state claimed were betting products in violation of Arizona law.
“Defendants are temporarily restrained and enjoined from enforcing AZ’s gambling laws in any criminal or civil enforcement actions to any contracts listed on CFTC-regulated [designated contract markets],” the judge ruled in the temporary restraining order, according to Paradigm senior regulatory counsel Stefan Schropp.
In a statement Friday, CFTC Chair Michael Selig said the regulator “appreciated” the judge’s decision.
“Arizona’s decision to weaponize state criminal law against companies that comply with federal law sets a dangerous precedent, and the court’s order today sends a clear message that intimidation is not an acceptable tactic to circumvent federal law,” he said.
The CFTC sued Arizona and two other states arguing that prediction markets, otherwise known as event contracts, are swaps subject to the federal agency’s supervision, and that its role preempts state law.
It’s a view that’s seen largely mixed results in court; state courts have often sided with states, such as when a Nevada state court ruled that the Gaming Control Board could temporarily block Kalshi while a broader case moves forward.
Federal courts have had different results; the Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled earlier this week that prediction markets are subject to CFTC rule, and it was up to the CFTC’s discretion on if it wanted to block providers from offering sports-related products or not.
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals declined to weigh in on the aforementioned Nevada action, allowing that state court to block Kalshi, but it will hold a hearing on a consolidated case next week allowing various providers and other parties to argue.
Judge Liburdi of Arizona granted the CFTC’s motion to block the Arizona state action against Kalshi two days after denying Kalshi’s own motion for a preliminary injunction against the state.
MetaMask now supports the ERC-7715 standard, allowing agents and dApps to request execution permissions on OP Mainnet.
Optimism announced that agents and decentralized applications can now request wallet execution permissions on OP Mainnet, with MetaMask enabling builders to request these permissions using the ERC-7715 standard. The update unlocks new permission models for dApps and agents operating on the Optimism network.
ERC-7715 is a token standard for permission-based execution, allowing for more granular control over what actions dApps and agents can perform with user wallets. The integration with MetaMask expands the capability of applications built on Optimism to implement sophisticated permission frameworks beyond basic transaction approval.
Sources: Optimism
This article was generated automatically by The Defiant’s AI news system from publicly available sources.
The Bitcoin (BTC) community is discussing the feasibility and implications of the Iranian government accepting BTC for tolls paid by oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane through which about 20% of the global oil supply passes.
The reactions were sparked by a Financial Times report, published on Wednesday, which said that the Iranian government was considering BTC payments for oil tolls to avoid sanctions imposed by the United States.
Several conflicting reports have been published since the Financial Times article, which suggest that the tolls are payable in stablecoins or Chinese yuan, according to Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at crypto investment firm Galaxy.
BTC advocate Justin Bechler said that stablecoins can be frozen by the issuer and cited the compliance controls introduced in the GENIUS stablecoin regulatory framework as reasons why the Iranian government would not collect tolls in US-dollar stablecoins. He said:
“USDT and USDC include built-in blacklist functions at the smart contract level. When an address is flagged, the issuer can freeze the tokens, rendering them completely illiquid. The law’s enforcement depends entirely on the compliance of issuers.
Bitcoin has no issuer, no compliance officer to pressure, and no freeze function. Iran’s pivot toward Bitcoin follows directly from this structural reality,” he added.
If the Iranian government begins accepting BTC for oil tanker payments, it would boost Bitcoin’s credibility as a neutral settlement layer for international transactions, advocates say.
Related: Crypto Biz: Will Bitcoin secure safe passage through the Hormuz Strait?
Iran would likely use QR codes to collect BTC payments
Thorn estimated that each oil tanker would need to pay between $200,000 and $2 million in tolls to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
The initial reporting from the Financial Times cited a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, who said that ships would have a “few seconds” to complete payment in BTC.
This suggests that ships would pay via the Lightning Network, a layer-2 payment solution for BTC that allows parties to send transactions in seconds, rather than waiting for the 10-minute block confirmation.
However, the largest known transaction over the Lightning network to date has been for $1 million, Thorn said.
“More likely, the Iranian authorities would provide a QR code or alphanumeric Bitcoin address to the ships upon approval of their requests to pass through the Strait,” he added.
Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum: BIP-360 co-author
The debate over how Iran might collect tolls from oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz has intensified within the Bitcoin community. The chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supply passes is now being discussed as a potential testing ground for Bitcoin as a cross-border settlement tool, following a Financial Times report that Iran was exploring BTC payments for tolls to dodge sanctions.
Since the FT piece, competing accounts have circulated about what form tolls could take. One line of speculation centers on BTC payments, while other reports point to stablecoins or even Chinese yuan as plausible settlement options. Analysts and advocates alike have stressed the issue is far from settled, but the core question remains: could Iran rely on Bitcoin to bypass traditional financial channels in a manner that would be visible at the corridor’s narrow, high-pressure lanes?
“If this development were to materialize, it would spotlight Bitcoin’s role as a neutral settlement layer for international trade,” according to proponents. Yet the discussion isn’t purely theoretical. The same debate touches on technical feasibility, sanctions risk, and the practical realities of on-chain settlement at oceanic scale.
The Financial Times report cited a spokesperson from Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, who described toll payments as needing to be completed in seconds. That framing has led observers to consider the Lightning Network, a layer-2 solution built on Bitcoin designed for rapid, off-chain transactions, as a potential mechanism for toll settlement. The FT coverage suggested that ships could pay via a quick QR code scan or a Bitcoin address provided after ship clearance. If such a system were deployed, payments would be processed with minimal delay, sidestepping the slower on-chain confirmation times that typically accompany BTC transactions.
Nevertheless, the most widely discussed numbers in this narrative come from analysts who cautioned that any toll scheme would need to handle substantial value per voyage. Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, floated the possibility of tolls ranging from several hundred thousand dollars to a few million dollars per tanker, depending on the vessel’s size and the crossing’s risk profile. Thorn also noted that, in practice, the largest publicly known Lightning Network transaction is around $1 million, underscoring the operational questions that would need to be resolved for high-volume, time-critical payments at sea. He emphasized that if Iran advances a toll collection framework, it would likely rely on a BTC payment point that ships can access upon approval to pass through Hormuz.
Key takeaways
- Iran’s potential acceptance of BTC for Hormuz tolls would mark a high-profile test of Bitcoin as a cross-border settlement layer amid sanctions pressures.
- Conflicting reporting suggests tolls could be payable in BTC as originally reported, or alternatively settled in stablecoins or yuan, highlighting uncertainty about the exact mechanism.
- Technical feasibility hinges on rapid settlement; while the Lightning Network enables near-instant transfers, the scale of toll payments per voyage could challenge current capacity, given historical LN transaction sizes.
- Advocates point to Bitcoin’s lack of a central issuer or blacklist, contrasting with regulated stablecoins that can be frozen, a factor some see as relevant to Iran’s strategic aim.
- If real, the development would have implications for the perception of Bitcoin as a neutral, global settlement layer and could influence regulatory discourse around cross-border crypto usage.
How the toll concept could unfold in practice
The Financial Times described a scenario in which Iranian authorities would require an extremely quick BTC payment as a ship enters Hormuz. In practical terms, this could involve generating a QR code or a Bitcoin address that the ship’s crew or their payment system would interact with upon receiving clearance. If adopted, this approach would lean on layer-2 solutions like the Lightning Network to keep settlement times short enough to match the navigational and regulatory checkpoints faced by vessels transiting the strait.
However, observers caution that the logistics are nontrivial. The strait’s traffic is heavy, and oil toll calculations can be complex, potentially varying with vessel type, cargo, and passage window. While the Lightning Network offers rapid settlement, its capacity and liquidity at scale for frequent, large-value payments remain an area for close monitoring. As Thorn noted, the largest documented Lightning transaction to date sits around the $1 million mark, which calls into question how a toll scheme would scale for multiple simultaneous crossings or exceptionally large tankers. The alternative—the use of QR codes or alphanumeric addresses—would still require robust onshore or on-chain settlement checkpoints to ensure compliance, routing, and reconciliation with oil-trade records.
Implications for Bitcoin, sanctions policy, and the broader market
Supporters argue that a successful BTC toll system at Hormuz would underscore Bitcoin’s potential as a decentralized, censorship-resistant settlement layer capable of operating in highly sanctioned environments. This line of thinking aligns with broader commentary about Bitcoin as an alternative settlement primitive for international trade, a view that has been echoed in various industry circles. Still, critics point to practical friction, including liquidity management on the Lightning Network, counterparty risk in a sanctioned domain, and the challenge of auditing cross-border flows when on-chain data may be partitioned or obfuscated by policy constraints and compliance regimes.
More broadly, the discussion touches on the evolving regulatory and technical landscape. Some analysts argue that, even if toll payments were settled in BTC, policymakers could still apply controls at different points in the transaction chain, including the gateways and exchanges used to bridge between crypto and fiat. Others highlight recent developments in stablecoin regulation as a reason why a BTC-centered toll arrangement would stand out as a unique case study in crypto-enabled sanctions evasion. As one commentator paraphrased, unlike stablecoins with built-in compliance layers, Bitcoin’s native architecture lacks a centralized issuer that can freeze or sanction tokens, a factor that some see as increasing Iran’s incentive to consider BTC payments in high-risk corridors.
Within the crypto industry, the discussion reflects a longer-running debate about Bitcoin’s credibility as a settlement medium for large-scale, real-world value transfers. Some proponents link this potential use case to arguments that Bitcoin could serve as a neutral, global settlement layer for complex financial transactions. Others urge caution, noting that even if such a toll system emerges, it would operate within a tightly controlled, geopolitically sensitive context that could limit its scalability and adoption outside the immediate environment.
What to watch next
Readers should monitor additional reporting from established outlets for confirmation about whether Iran will proceed with BTC tolls, stablecoins, or yuan settlements. The coming weeks could reveal more concrete details about the mechanics, governance, and interoperability of any toll-collection framework. If actual pilot payments materialize, investors and builders will want to assess the implications for Bitcoin’s transactional use in real-world, sanctioned corridors, as well as the potential regulatory responses that such a development might provoke.
In the meantime, developments at Hormuz will continue to test how crypto-native settlement concepts interface with one of the world’s most consequential energy chokepoints, offering a glimpse into how policymakers, banks, and blockchain networks might navigate the next era of cross-border trade.
Source notes: The Financial Times reported on Iran’s consideration of BTC payments for Hormuz tolls this week, with subsequent commentary from Galaxy’s Alex Thorn outlining alternative possibilities and scale considerations. See the FT coverage for details, and additional commentary linked to industry discussions on Bitcoin’s use as a settlement layer.
Congress is calling for a Polymarket investigation after at least 50 newly created accounts placed bets on a US-Iran ceasefire in the minutes before President Trump announced it on social media on April 9.
Summary
- At least 50 brand-new Polymarket accounts placed winning ceasefire bets minutes before Trump’s announcement.
- Representative Ritchie Torres sent a letter to the CFTC demanding a formal review of the platform.
- Senator Richard Blumenthal called Polymarket “an illicit market” for exploiting national security secrets.
The prediction market platform Polymarket is at the center of a congressional firestorm after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. At least 50 newly created accounts placed bets on the outcome in the hours and minutes before President Trump posted about the deal, and most made no other bets before or since.
According to NPR, at least 50 new accounts placed substantial bets on a US-Iran ceasefire in the hours and minutes before President Trump posted the deal on social media. The accounts had no prior betting history and made no other trades, raising immediate suspicion of insider activity.
Rep. Ritchie Torres sent a letter to the CFTC demanding a formal investigation. Sen. Richard Blumenthal went further, calling Polymarket “an illicit market to sell and exploit national security secrets unlike any in history.”
A Pattern Polymarket Cannot Escape
This is not the first time suspicious betting has preceded a major geopolitical event. As crypto.news reported, six Polymarket accounts were previously accused of using insider information to profit from the timing of earlier US strikes on Iran, earning roughly $1 million and triggering the so-called DEATH BETS Act from Senator Adam Schiff.
Analytics firm Bubblemaps had flagged newly created wallets placing timely bets just hours before those strikes commenced. The pattern has now repeated with greater speed: the latest bets were placed in the minutes before the announcement, not just hours.
Regulatory and Legal Exposure
The CFTC issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on prediction markets in March 2026, with the comment window set to close on April 30. More than 10 anti-prediction market bills have been introduced in Congress since January.
As crypto.news noted, six Democratic senators previously urged the CFTC to ban contracts that resolve on or correlate to an individual’s death. Polymarket, which operates outside US jurisdiction and requires only a crypto wallet to trade, has not commented on the latest congressional demands.
Bitcoin $73,000 has proven an impassable ceiling for the third time since the ceasefire, dragging ETH, SOL, and DOGE lower as analysts say the market needs a clean break above $75,000 before any sustained upside is possible.
Summary
- Bitcoin has failed to break $73,000 for the third time since the US-Iran ceasefire was announced.
- ETH, SOL, and DOGE have slid on the day as BTC stalls at a level that has capped every rally since the war began.
- Analysts say $75,000 must break before the market enters a genuine bullish phase.
Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin are sliding on April 10 as Bitcoin fails again to break above $73,000. The level has acted as a ceiling for every relief rally over the six weeks of the Iran conflict, and the third rejection in as many days has renewed pressure on the broader altcoin market.
Bitcoin reached an intraday high of $73,111 on April 10 before pulling back, according to crypto.news market data. The repeated failure at this level has weighed on altcoin momentum, with ETH, SOL, and DOGE each recording losses on the day as Bitcoin’s hesitation discourages broad risk-on positioning.
The level has “capped every rally during the six-week war,” according to CoinDesk’s April 10 market daybook, with analysts saying $75,000 must break before the market enters a genuine bullish phase. Even the brief relief from softer core CPI data this morning was not enough to push Bitcoin through.
Altcoins Bear the Brunt
Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin each declined on the day, tracking Bitcoin’s inability to convert the $73,000 test into a breakout. The altcoin market is structurally leveraged to Bitcoin’s directional moves; when BTC fails resistance, altcoins tend to sell off faster and recover slower.
The three consecutive rejections at $73,000 have reinforced the view that the ceasefire alone was not enough to end the war’s grip on market sentiment. Traders are still pricing persistent geopolitical risk from an only partially open Strait of Hormuz and a fragile, untested peace process.
What Could Break the Resistance
A full diplomatic resolution from the Islamabad talks this weekend, including an unconstrained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, would remove one of the market’s largest macro headwinds. As crypto.news noted, oil falling sustainably below $100 would likely shift macro sentiment in favor of risk assets, potentially providing the catalyst needed to break above $73,000 and trigger the next leg of altcoin recovery.
XRP is holding at $1.34 as traders await Senate action on the XRP CLARITY Act, with Congress returning from Easter recess on April 13 and a Banking Committee markup expected in the second half of the month.
Summary
- XRP is trading in a tight $1.34 to $1.35 range with modest 0.8% to 1.0% gains over 24 hours.
- The Senate Banking Committee markup of the CLARITY Act is targeted for the second half of April.
- Analysts say passage could unlock $4 to $8 billion in additional XRP ETF inflows, per Standard Chartered.
XRP has been in a holding pattern on April 10, trading between $1.34 and $1.35 as institutional investors wait for the US Senate to act on legislation that could permanently define XRP’s regulatory status. The next window opens April 13.
According to FX Leaders, XRP held between $1.33 and $1.35 on April 10, posting modest gains of 0.8% to 1.0% over the prior 24 hours. The range trade reflects a market waiting for a binary legislative outcome rather than responding to technicals.
The Senate returns from Easter recess on April 13, with the Banking Committee markup of the CLARITY Act targeted for the second half of the month. As crypto.news reported, Polymarket currently gives the bill roughly a 63% to 66% probability of becoming law in 2026. Senator Bernie Moreno has warned publicly that missing the May window risks pushing the legislation off the calendar for the rest of the year.
What the CLARITY Act Means for XRP
The CLARITY Act would formally define XRP as a digital commodity under US law, giving banks and large asset managers the legal certainty they need to commit capital at scale. Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick has projected that Senate Banking Committee advancement could unlock $4 to $8 billion in additional XRP ETF inflows.
Seven US spot XRP ETFs already pulled in $1.44 billion since launching between September and December 2025, without the CLARITY Act as law. With formal legislation in place, analysts say institutional capital currently sitting on the sidelines would have permanent legal cover to enter at scale.
The Clock Is Narrowing Fast
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has already pushed his expected passage timeline from the end of April to the end of May. As crypto.news noted, TD Cowen and multiple legal analysts have warned the bill could slip off the congressional calendar entirely if it does not clear the Senate before summer, with midterm election dynamics making a post-August push nearly impossible.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly urged Congress to act, writing in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that “Senate floor time is scarce, and now is the time to act.” For XRP traders, the $1.34 floor may hold until the Senate shows its hand.
TLDR
- Hong Kong Monetary Authority issued its first stablecoin licences to Anchorpoint and HSBC Hong Kong.
- Anchorpoint plans to launch HKDAP, a Hong Kong dollar-backed stablecoin, in a phased rollout.
- The Stablecoins Ordinance requires HK$25 million capital and strict compliance standards.
- Authorities enforce penalties up to HK$5 million and seven years imprisonment for violations.
- Global stablecoin market exceeds $311 billion, dominated by US dollar-based tokens.
Hong Kong regulators have issued the first stablecoin licences under a new legal framework. Authorities approved Anchorpoint and HSBC Hong Kong as initial issuers. The move establishes a regulated path for Hong Kong dollar-backed digital tokens.
Standard Chartered, HSBC Secure Early Stablecoin Approval
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority granted licences to Anchorpoint and HSBC Hong Kong under its stablecoin rules. Anchorpoint operates as a joint venture involving Standard Chartered, Animoca Brands, and HKT. The approval allows both entities to issue regulated stablecoins within Hong Kong’s financial system.
Anchorpoint confirmed plans to introduce HKDAP, a Hong Kong dollar-backed stablecoin, in phases during the second quarter. The company will use a structured rollout strategy targeting institutional and commercial use cases. It aims to support digital payments and tokenized financial transactions within regulated channels.
Bill Winters, Group Chief Executive of Standard Chartered, emphasized the bank’s commitment to financial innovation.
He said, “The issuance of HKDAP provides a regulated medium of exchange for modern financial markets.” He added that the initiative supports evolving global trade systems and digital finance adoption.
Anchorpoint Chief Executive Dominic Maffei highlighted the firm’s operational focus and ecosystem goals. He said the company will provide “secure, accessible, and regulated tokenized money” for users. He stated that this approach will reshape financial transactions and infrastructure across institutions and individuals.
The firm plans to deploy a B2B2C distribution model to expand adoption across different market segments. Selected distributors will connect the platform to end users and business clients. The strategy also supports partnerships with financial and technology service providers.
HKMA Framework Defines Capital and Compliance Standards
Hong Kong introduced its Stablecoins Ordinance in August 2025 to regulate digital asset issuance. The law established a licensing system and defined operational standards for issuers. Regulators designed the framework to ensure oversight and financial stability.
The ordinance requires issuers to maintain at least HK$25 million in paid-up capital. It also mandates HK$3 million in liquid assets for operational resilience. These thresholds aim to ensure financial strength among licensed participants.
Authorities set strict penalties for unauthorized stablecoin issuance under the new rules. Violators face fines of up to HK$5 million and possible prison sentences of seven years. Enforcement measures aim to maintain compliance and deter unlicensed activity.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority also released guidelines on supervision and risk management practices. These rules include anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing requirements. Issuers must follow strict reporting and operational controls under regulatory supervision.
Data from CoinGecko shows the global stablecoin market exceeds $311 billion in total value. Most transaction volumes remain concentrated in US dollar-based tokens like USDT and USDC. Hong Kong aims to expand regulated alternatives tied to its local currency.
Officials continue to develop the licensing system to support controlled innovation in digital finance. The framework focuses on practical use cases like cross-border settlement and tokenized banking services. Authorities maintain oversight while enabling stablecoin adoption in regulated financial environments.
Crypto World
TAO Tanks 20% as Major Subnet Developer Accuses Bittensor Founder of ‘Decentralization Theatre’
The founder of Covenant AI announced the project’s departure from Bittensor last night, kicking off public accusations from both sides, and sending the subnet ecosystem down 26%.
Bittensor’s TAO token is the worst performer among the top-100 large-caps today, April 10, after a major subnet operator announced their departure from the ecosystem.
Yesterday evening ET, TAO plunged from around $338 to a low near $253 — a drop of roughly 25% — erasing close to $900 million in market cap, per CoinGecko data. The asset is currently down 20% over the past 24 hours, trading near $270 at press time.
The sell-off was triggered by an extended X post from Sam Dare, founder of Covenant AI, announcing the project’s departure from Bittensor, a decentralized artificial intelligence (AI) protocol.
In his statement, posted on X yesterday evening ET, Dare accused Bittensor founder Jacob Steeves (known online as “Const”) of exercising unilateral control over a network that presents itself as decentralized, alleging Steeves suspended emissions to Covenant’s subnets, stripped their moderation capabilities, deprecated their infrastructure, and applied economic pressure through large, visible token sales timed to moments of operational conflict.
“The entire premise of Bittensor… is that no single entity controls it,” Dare wrote. “That promise is a lie.”
Covenant AI operated subnets SN3, SN81, and SN39 — specialized sub-networks dedicated to specific AI tasks — and was the team behind Covenant-72B: the model whose reveal catalyzed a 90% TAO rally after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and investor Chamath Palihapitiya endorsed Bittensor’s decentralized AI training model on the All-In Podcast, as The Defiant reported previously.
Steeves pushed back in an X response on April 10, disputing each claim. He acknowledged selling some of his alpha holdings across Covenant’s three subnets, but said it was because they “were not running, and were on near 100% burn code” — and that the sales amounted to less than 1% of his total investment in the project.
He also denied having any ability to unilaterally suspend emissions, said Dare deprecated his own channels, and noted that visibility in token sales is “impossible to avoid” given his position.
Not everyone in the community is sympathetic to Dare’s account. Prominent Bittensor community member @DreadBong0 alleged that Dare dumped 37,000 TAO worth of subnet alpha tokens across the Grail, Basilica, and Templar subnets on the way out — a move that “completely destroyed the investments of everyone who followed and trusted these guys.”
DreadBong0’s X post called the alleged move a “rug for max extraction,” adding: “Maybe that’s wrong but that’s exactly how it looks to me.” The dump allegation has not been independently verified, and Dare has not publicly addressed it.
Subnet Ecosystem Suffers
The Bittensor subnets sector more broadly is down nearly 26% on the day per CoinGecko, with τemplar (SN3) — which had surged around 400% over the prior month to an over $150 million market cap — now down almost 63% in the past 24 hours.
Nearly $10 million in TAO long positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, per CoinGlass data.
The Defiant had covered the TAO rally last month, noting the surge in Bittensor subnet tokens and the outsized role Covenant AI’s model played in driving enthusiasm.
The network has also attracted a wave of institutional interest, with publicly traded companies building TAO treasuries and, more recently, the potential conversion of the Grayscale TAO Trust into a spot ETF on the horizon.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong publicly supported Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s call to pass the CLARITY Act, citing the urgency of crypto regulation.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong backed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s push to pass the CLARITY Act on Friday, April 10, 2026. Armstrong publicly agreed with the urgency around crypto regulation and thanked Bessent for advancing the issue forward with bipartisan support in the Senate.
The endorsement from Armstrong, one of crypto’s largest institutional figures, adds pressure on Congress to act on the cryptocurrency regulation framework. The CLARITY Act aims to provide regulatory clarity for digital assets and their classification across U.S. financial regulators.
Sources: Brian Armstrong
This article was generated automatically by The Defiant’s AI news system from publicly available sources.
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