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World War III Risks in 2026 and Bitcoin’s Likely Response: 4 AIs Speculate

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World War III Risks in 2026 and Bitcoin’s Likely Response: 4 AIs Speculate


“In a WW3 scenario, BTC may initially crash sharply from risk-off panic selling, but later rise like a phoenix from the ashes,” Perplexity predicted.

The USA launched a military operation in Venezuela, following which the leader of the South American country, Nicolas Maduro, and his wife were captured and taken to the States. The POTUS keeps insisting on the annexation of Greenland, which caused huge controversy between America and other NATO members. The USA warned Iran of possible military action over its nuclear program, while the Asian nation said it’s ready to retaliate and refuses talks under pressure. And it’s only January…

The looming conflicts across the globe since the start of the year, plus the war between Ukraine and Russia, which has been ongoing since 2022, have sparked fears that World War III might be knocking on the door. We asked four of the most widely used AI-powered chatbots whether such a devastating event could happen this year and how Bitcoin (BTC) might respond.

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The Global Landscape Feels Like a ‘Tinderbox’

According to ChatGPT, World War III is unlikely in 2026. At the same time, though, it noted that numerous nations across the globe have confronted each other, meaning additional conflicts (apart from the Russia/Ukraine one) will not come as a surprise.

The chatbot claimed that the chances of a war between NATO and Russia this year, an outcome which can be devastating for the planet and humanity, are below 4%. If the worst-case scenario becomes reality, Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to crash by more than 50% immediately after the news. In the coming weeks, though, ChatGPT expects the asset to recover, especially if banking institutions and fiat currencies are deeply affected.

“Bitcoin could perform well in a world war if banks fail and fiat currencies are restricted, because it allows people to store and move value without relying on the traditional financial system. After an initial panic and sell-off, demand could rise as people seek a censorship-resistant alternative to failing money,” it added.

Google’s Gemini also doubts that a world war can erupt before the end of 2026, albeit noting that the global landscape feels more like a “tinderbox” than at any point in the 21st century.

It estimated that the next big war will most likely include nuclear weapons and major weapon power, which would be shocking and deadly, and most financial assets will be left behind as people will mainly think about their physical survival. Under these conditions, BTC will likely lose its short-term investment appeal, with its usefulness depending entirely on whether the Internet and power infrastructure remain intact.

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BTC to Rise Like a Phoenix From the Ashes

Grok, the chatbot integrated within X, is skeptical that World War III can occur this year. The likely scenario for BTC if such a thing happens is a 20-30% dip, followed by accelerated adoption and price revival.

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Perplexity argued that the risk of a global war is very low, reminding how the cryptocurrency usually reacts to military conflicts. At first, it is likely to experience a double-digit collapse, while later the interest in it can skyrocket, which might lead to a substantial price rally.

“In a WW3 scenario, BTC may initially crash sharply from risk-off panic selling, but later rise like a phoenix from the ashes as it gains traction as a decentralization hedge against fiat devaluation and global sanctions,” it predicted.

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ETF that feasts on carnage in MSTR hits record high

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ETF that feasts on carnage in MSTR hits record high

There’s always a bull market somewhere.

While bitcoin and shares of bitcoin holder Strategy are falling, an exchange-traded fund designed to move in the opposite direction of MSTR and double its daily change has hit a record high.

That exchange-traded fund is the GraniteShares 2x Short MSTR Daily ETF, trading under the ticker MSDD on Nasdaq. It is an actively managed fund designed to deliver -200% of the Strategy’s daily performance. In simple terms, if MSTR falls 2% in a day, the ETF targets a 4% gain that same day (before fees/decay).

The fund debuted on Jan. 10, 2025 and is seen as a high-risk short-term tactical tool for bears betting against MSTR. And it has lived up to its repute.

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MSDD’s price hit a record high of $114 on Tuesday, up 13.5% on the year, extending the past year’s 275% surge, according to data source TradingView.

MSDD’s compatriot, the Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (SMST), also clocked an 11-month high of $113 on Tuesday. This fund debuted on Nasdaq in August 2024.

In other words, MSTR bears out there who loaded up on these ETFs have made a killing.

Strategy fell to $126 on Tuesday, the lowest since September 2024, extending its multi-month bear market. The stock is now down a staggering 76% from its lifetime high of $543 in November last year.

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Strategy is the world’s largest publicly listed bitcoin holder, stashing 713,502 BTC ($54.24 billion) at press time. Naturally, its share price tends to follow swings in bitcoin’s market value.

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, has dropped 12% this year and traded as low as $73,000 on Tuesday. That was the weakest since late 2024. Since then, prices have bounced back to $76,000, thanks to narrowly approved funding package that alleviated near-term U.S. shutdown risk and stabilized risk sentiment in financial markets.

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Why Cardano Investors Are Moving Assets to Self-Custody Now

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ADA Price


“Currently, a 10 billion market cap, this thing is not even worth $1 billion,” one X user argued.

The latest cryptocurrency market crash was brutal, sending Cardano’s ADA to multi-month lows.

Some analysts believe the storm may not be over, warning the price could nosedive by as much as 75% in the short term.

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The Bad Days for the Bulls Aren’t Over?

Several hours ago, ADA plunged to 0.27, the lowest level since August 2024. Currently, it trades at around $0.29 (per CoinGecko’s data), representing a 15% decline on a weekly scale.

ADA Price
ADA Price, Source: CoinGecko

The well-known analyst DrBullZeus claimed that the asset is now nearing “a must hold support zone” at the range of $0.24-$0.28. He thinks that breaking below that level could result in a price crash to $0.125 and even $0.075.

The popular trader Matthew Dixon also chipped in. He suggested that “technically speaking,” ADA has retraced in three waves since the local top seen towards the end of 2024. He outlined $0.24 as a “very important long-term support,” predicting that as long as it holds, the price could rebound.

“A break of support would be a serious concern,” he alerted.

Prior to that, Harmonic Trader predicted that in six months, ADA might trade under $0.10. “Currently, a 10 billion market cap, this thing is not even worth $1 billion,” they argued.

Time to Rally?

Despite ADA’s recent price decline, some other analysts remain optimistic that a resurgence could be on the way. One of them, using the X nickname “Lucky,” asked their almost two million followers whether they plan to increase their exposure to the token at current rates. The analyst also envisioned a potential pump to nearly $1 in the near future.

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LaPetite is also bullish. Several days ago, he forecasted that ADA is about to go “parabolic,” claiming that “huge announcements” concerning Cardano are coming soon.

The recent exchange netflows signal that a rebound could indeed be on the horizon. Data provided by CoinGlass shows that over the past days and weeks, outflows have significantly outpaced inflows. This means investors have been shifting from centralized platforms to self-custody, which in turn reduces immediate selling pressure.

ADA Exchange Netflow
ADA Exchange Netflow, Source: CoinGlass
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Aave Shutters Avara Brand and Family Crypto Wallet

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Aave Shutters Avara Brand and Family Crypto Wallet

Aave Labs says it is sunsetting its “umbrella brand” Avara in the company’s latest move to refocus on decentralized finance and simplify its branding.

Aave founder and CEO Stani Kulechov posted to X on Tuesday that Avara, a company encompassing projects including the Family crypto wallet and previously the social media platform Lens, “is no longer required as we go all in on bringing Aave to the masses.”

Kulechov said the Apple iOS-based Family crypto wallet was also being wound down as the team has “learned that onboarding millions of users requires purpose-built experiences, such as savings, rather than generic, open-ended wallet experiences.”

The move marks Aave’s latest effort to refocus on products such as its flagship lending protocol as the project handed stewardship of Lens to the Mask Network last month, with Kulechov saying Aave’s role in the protocol would be reduced to an advisory role so it can focus on DeFi.

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Source: Stani Kulechov

Kulechov said in his latest post that Aave was “now united as one team of world-class designers, engineers, and smart contract experts, aligned around a single mission: bringing DeFi to everyone.”

All future projects under Aave Labs

Avara said in a blog post that “all current and future products, including the Aave App, Aave Pro, and Aave Kit, will operate under Aave Labs” to simplify the brand.

It added that accounts linked to the Family wallets “will continue as core infrastructure within Aave Labs products,” but the iOS app would be wound down over the next year.

No new users will be onboarded to the app from April 1, and existing users can continue using the app until April 1, 2027, and will continue to have full access to their funds on Aave’s website.

Related: There is no trust in DeFi without proper risk management

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Aave is the biggest DeFi protocol with $30 billion in total value locked, nearly $9 billion more than the next largest project, the staking protocol Lido, which has $21.7 billion in value locked, according to DefiLlama.