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XRP ‘Coiling’ for a Breakout? Liquidity Patterns Mirror Previous Explosive Rallies

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XRP 'Coiling' for a Breakout? Liquidity Patterns Mirror Previous Explosive Rallies


Historical data depicts XRP rallies followed periods of tight liquidity, though sustained moves required expanding USD market depth.

XRP’s market structure is showing signs of renewed liquidity compression, as evidenced by exchange flows and on-chain liquidity conditions aligning in a way that has historically preceded increased volatility.

Data tracking Binance exchange inflows revealed that large deposits previously surged ahead of a major XRP rally, a pattern often associated with rising volatility rather than immediate selling.

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Fragile Market Setup

CryptoQuant explained that while exchange inflows are commonly interpreted as potential sell-side pressure, past behavior indicates that they can also mark positioning phases before sharp price expansions. During the earlier rally period, USD liquidity, which represents the depth of capital supporting XRP markets, expanded significantly. This allowed prices to support upward momentum despite high volatility.

Current conditions, however, differ, as USD liquidity has been declining. Such a setting points to thinner market depth compared with prior expansion phases. Reduced depth typically increases sensitivity to flows and amplifies price reactions.

On the supply side, the amount of XRP actively available for trading dropped sharply ahead of the previous breakout, a period that marked the start of the rally. That same pattern is beginning to reappear, as XRP liquidity is trending lower once again. In past cycles, similar setups, where exchange inflows spiked while overall liquidity tightened, were followed by sharp increases in price volatility.

Whether those moves turned into steady trends depended largely on how much capital entered the market. Right now, exchange inflows remain relatively contained, but liquidity on both the USD and XRP side is shrinking. This points to a thinner market than during earlier expansion phases, where even modest changes in buying or selling pressure can have an outsized impact on price.

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With less liquidity to absorb trades, XRP’s price may react more quickly if activity picks up, which makes market conditions even more fragile than they appear on the surface.

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XRP Most Talked-About Asset After Bitcoin

Even against this backdrop, investor interest in the asset has not faded. As recently reported by CryptoPotato, XRP has emerged as the second-most talked-about digital asset after Bitcoin, as per Grayscale. The asset manager observed that the crypto continues to attract significant attention due to steady interest from its user base and investors, even as market sentiment remains cautious.

Speaking during Ripple Community Day, Grayscale’s Head of Product and Research, Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary, described XRP as having a large and committed community, and added that client inquiries about the token remain consistently high. Advisors at Grayscale have reported that the token frequently ranks just behind Bitcoin in terms of discussion volume.

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Crypto World

Tether USDT Set for Biggest Monthly Decline Since FTX Collapse

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Tether USDT Set for Biggest Monthly Decline Since FTX Collapse

Tether’s USDT, the world’s largest US dollar-pegged stablecoin, is heading for its steepest monthly decline in years as large holders step up redemptions, according to blockchain data.

The circulating supply of USDt (USDT) fell by about $1.5 billion so far in February, following an $1.2 billion decrease in January, according to Artemis Analytics data reported by Bloomberg. This puts USDT on track for the biggest monthly drop in three years, weeks after the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX in November 2022.

The USDT supply logged a $2 billion decrease in December 2022 after the collapse of FTX and its 150 subsidiaries sent shockwaves through the crypto industry.

The decline may signal a contraction in crypto market liquidity, as Tether’s USDT is the primary on-ramp for crypto investors. Its $183 billion market capitalization accounts for about 71% of the total stablecoin market, according to CoinMarketCap. 

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Tether USDT, monthly percentage supply change, monthly aggregate. Source: Artemis Analytics, Bloomberg

Cointelegraph reached out to Tether for comment on what is driving the February supply drop, but had not received a response by publication.

Related: BlackRock enters DeFi as institutional crypto push accelerates: Finance Redefined

Total stablecoin market cap flat in February

The pullback in USDT has not translated into a broader contraction across dollar-linked stablecoins.

The total market capitalization of stablecoins across all exchanges has risen 2.33% so far in February, from $300 billion to $307 billion, according to DeFiLlama data.

Total stablecoin market capitalization. Source: DeFiLlama

While the two leading stablecoins, USDT and Circle’s USDC (USDC), both decreased by 1.7% and 0.9%, respectively, the Trump-family-linked World Liberty Financial’s USD1 (USD1) stablecoin recorded a 50% increase in market capitalization over the past month and was valued at $5.1 billion as of Friday, according to DeFiLlama.

Related: Wells Fargo sees ‘YOLO’ trade driving $150B into Bitcoin and risk assets

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Whales and smart money traders offload USDT, but fresh wallets stepping in

Whales, or large cryptocurrency investors, have been cutting their USDT holdings, but new participants are bringing fresh demand for the leading stablecoin.

Whale wallets sold $69.9 million USDT across 22 wallets over the past week, marking a 1.6-fold increase in the selling rate of this cohort, according to crypto intelligence platform Nansen.

USDT on Ethereum, token God mode, 1-year chart. Source: Nansen

The leading traders by returns, tracked as “smart money,” have also been net sellers of USDT. At the same time, new wallets created in the past 15 days bought roughly $591 million worth of USDT over the week, according to the platform.

The mixed flows highlight a market split between large holders redeeming or reallocating capital and new entrants stepping in to take the other side, even as overall stablecoin issuance remains broadly steady.

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Magazine: Crypto wanted to overthrow banks, now it’s becoming them in stablecoin fight