Capital is rotating into select mid-cap altcoins as momentum builds near critical technical levels. Several names are compressing just beneath record highs, while others are stabilizing after shallow pullbacks with trend structure still intact. 

Thus, BeInCrypto has analysed three such altcoins that could form new all-time highs in the third week of February.

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Kite (KITE)

KITE is among the closest altcoins to retest its recent all-time high of $0.242. The token is trading less than 17% below that peak. Strong short-term momentum has kept KITE within reach of record levels, reflecting sustained trader interest and speculative demand in the broader altcoin market.

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator shows a slight downtick but remains above the zero line. This suggests capital inflows are still present despite cooling momentum. Continued buying pressure could help KITE break above $0.242. A confirmed breakout may push the altcoin toward $0.270, establishing a new high.

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However, profit-taking remains a key risk near record levels. If investors begin exiting positions, downside pressure could increase quickly. A drop below the $0.207 support level would weaken the bullish structure. Further selling could drive KITE toward $0.163, invalidating the current upside thesis.

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Rain (RAIN)

Another altcoin poised for new all-time highs in the coming week is Rain. Despite a recent price dip, the altcoin has preserved a bullish structure. The Ichimoku Cloud indicator continues to show supportive momentum, signaling that trend strength remains intact within the broader cryptocurrency market.

Sustained buying pressure could drive RAIN back toward its $0.0110 all-time high. The token currently trades about 12.5% below that level. A decisive breakout above $0.0110 would confirm continued strength. That move could push RAIN toward $0.0113, establishing a fresh record high.

However, technical momentum must remain stable to support further upside. If buying interest weakens, downside risk could increase. A decline toward the $0.0097 support level would signal fading bullish control. Breaking that level would invalidate the current bullish thesis and shift sentiment bearish.

Stable (STABLE)

STABLE has emerged as one of the stronger-performing altcoins this week, advancing 45% over the period. The token now trades roughly 21% below its all-time high of $0.0325. Sustained momentum has strengthened bullish sentiment, positioning STABLE within reach of record price levels.

The Money Flow Index remains above the neutral 50.0 mark, signaling active buying pressure. Positive capital inflows suggest demand continues to outpace supply. If accumulation persists, STABLE could break above $0.0325. A confirmed breakout may extend gains toward $0.0368, establishing a new all-time high.

However, short-term holders may begin locking in profits after the recent rally. Increased selling activity could weaken upward momentum. A pullback toward $0.0225 would indicate cooling demand. Further downside toward $0.0189 would invalidate the current bullish outlook.

Nexo is set to relaunch its digital asset services and crypto exchange platform in the United States on Monday, reviving a business footprint it abandoned more than three years ago amid a regulatory climate that proved inhospitable for crypto firms. The reboot is framed around clearer rules for digital assets in the U.S. and relies on a partnership-driven model designed to meet licensing and compliance benchmarks while offering a mix of yield programs, a spot trading venue, crypto-backed credit facilities, and a loyalty program for U.S. customers, according to Eleonor Genova, Nexo’s head of communications.

Key takeaways

• Nexo plans a U.S. relaunch anchored in Florida, with a management team to be announced, and a trading backbone provided by Bakkt to serve institutional-grade trading needs.
• The new structure includes services delivered through licensed U.S. partners, with certain activities supported by a third-party SEC-registered investment adviser to ensure compliance under U.S. securities laws.
• The move marks a notable reversal after Nexo exited the U.S. market in December 2022 due to what it described as a hostile regulatory posture toward blockchain firms during the Gary Gensler era.
• Regulatory dynamics in Washington—framing a potential pathway for crypto clarity—have evolved, with debates over framework bills like the CLARITY Act and ongoing White House-brokered discussions on stablecoins and market structure.
• The U.S. relaunch follows high-profile political events and promises to reintroduce crypto offerings into a market where policy signals have gradually tilted toward clearer, if still evolving, compliance standards. An April 2025 event featuring Donald Trump Jr. highlighted the strategic attention around crypto in U.S. political discourse.

Tickers mentioned: N/A

Sentiment: Neutral

Market context: The re-entry arrives as Washington weighs a regulatory framework for crypto markets, with the CLARITY Act gaining traction but facing political hurdles. A White House-facilitated meeting between crypto and banking representatives aimed at aligning stablecoin provisions underscores a broader push for market clarity that could shape how platforms operate going forward.

Why it matters

The renewal of Nexo’s U.S. footprint underscores a broader industry trend: companies that paused or scaled back operations a few years ago are testing the waters again as policymakers signal a willingness to formalize crypto rules. Florida’s selection as the operational base aligns with state-friendly licensing environments and a growing focus on local compliance infrastructure, a shift that could influence other platforms evaluating U.S. re-entry.

Crucially, Nexo’s architecture emphasizes regulated partnerships rather than a single, fully in-house regime. The company has articulated that certain services will be conducted through licensed U.S. providers and that advisory services will be furnished by an SEC-registered adviser in accordance with applicable securities laws. This approach signals a deliberate effort to align crypto offerings with traditional financial-market standards while preserving access to yield programs and crypto-backed credit tools that drew users to its platform in the first place. The move also reflects a broader industry trend toward asset custody, insurance considerations, and compliance-led product design as firms seek to reassure investors and regulators alike.

The regulatory backdrop remains nuanced. While Washington has advanced discussions around crypto market structure and clarity, the Senate has yet to assemble what it regards as sufficient bipartisan support to move ahead with major legislation. In the meantime, industry participants point to ongoing regulatory dialogues and evolving enforcement expectations as critical signals for strategic planning. The White House has described the need for compromise on crypto policy and has supported efforts to pass a comprehensive framework before midterm elections, arguing that stable and well-defined rules are essential for investor protection and market integrity. In parallel, a productive but unresolved dialogue between crypto and banking stakeholders on stablecoins highlights the complexity of reconciling innovation with consumer safeguards.

Nexo’s earlier exit in 2022 was framed by the firm as a response to an environment where “the U.S. refuses to provide a path forward for enabling blockchain businesses,” despite assurances from industry participants that constructs could be built to satisfy regulatory expectations. The company subsequently faced legal and regulatory actions tied to its Crypto Earn product, including a $45 million settlement with the SEC over unregistered interest-bearing crypto rewards and an additional $22.5 million multi-state securities settlement related to the earn program. These actions culminated in the shuttering of Crypto Earn for U.S. users shortly after the settlements were announced, illustrating the kind of enforcement risk that the new U.S. launch seeks to mitigate through governance, licensing, and robust advisory relationships.

The newly announced U.S. relaunch, with its emphasis on compliant, licensed pathways and a curated ecosystem of services, reflects both a reputational recalibration and a pragmatic strategy to re-enter a market that remains vital for global retail and institutional participants alike. The narrative around Nexo’s return is also part of a broader conversation about how crypto firms can navigate federal and state regimes in a way that balances innovation with accountability, a topic that has shaped many of the industry’s recent regulatory dialogues and enforcement actions.

“Nexo’s US offering is structured through partnerships with appropriately licensed US service providers. Certain services are made available via a third-party Securities and Exchange Commission-registered (SEC) investment adviser, which provides advisory services under applicable US securities laws.”

The Florida-based relaunch underscores a strategic intent to localize operations while leveraging external compliance rails. Bakkt’s involvement as the trading infrastructure provider will bring institutional-grade liquidity and risk controls to a platform that seeks to appeal to both retail enthusiasts and professional traders. The arrangement with a registered adviser is designed to ensure that advisory services align with U.S. securities rules, potentially expanding the scope of products that can be offered without triggering unregistered security concerns. These elements collectively indicate a cautious but purpose-driven path back into a market that remains critical to the broader crypto ecosystem’s growth curve.

What to watch next

• The timing and terms of the Florida-based management team’s appointment and whether any licenses or registrations are filed or announced publicly.
• The go-live timeline for the Bakkt-powered trading interface and the rollout of yield, lending, and loyalty products in a compliant framework.
• Formalization of the SEC-registered adviser relationship and the exact product mix that will be offered to U.S. customers.
• Regulatory milestones tied to U.S. crypto policy, including any movement on the CLARITY Act or related market-structure discussions.

Sources & verification

• Nexo’s official communications on its gradual departure from the United States and the rationale cited for exiting in 2022.
• Information on the 2023 SEC settlement and related multi-state securities settlements tied to the Crypto Earn program.
• California Department of Financial Protection & Innovation (DFPI) fine related to the firm’s lending activities.
• Ongoing policy discussions in Washington around crypto market structure, including the CLARITY Act and White House–brokered talks on stablecoins.
• The April 2025 exclusive event featuring Donald Trump Jr. announcing or signaling the U.S. re-entry, as reported in accompanying coverage of Nexo’s re-entry plan.

Nexo’s U.S. relaunch signals a new phase for compliant crypto services

The relaunch marks a deliberate pivot toward a compliance-first model designed to align with U.S. securities laws and state licensing requirements while preserving access to services that attracted users in previous years. By anchoring operations in Florida and building a framework around licensed partners and a registered adviser, Nexo aims to reduce the kind of regulatory friction that curtailed its U.S. ambitions in the past. The arrangement with Bakkt signals a preference for institutional-grade infrastructure, which may help the platform weather a market characterized by heightened scrutiny and cautious capital deployment.

In the broader context, the resumption of U.S. activities by Nexo sits at the intersection of regulatory caution and market demand. The sector continues to push for clarity on what constitutes a security versus a commodity, how custody should be structured, and which products can be offered to everyday investors without triggering sweeping enforcement actions. As policymakers weigh policy options, the crypto industry remains compelled to demonstrate that it can operate within a well-defined regulatory perimeter while continuing to innovate—whether through yield-based programs, lending products, or a diversified trading environment.

Nexo is set to return to the U.S. market, saying it has officially rolled-out a suite of digital asset offerings and trading infrastructure from the U.S.-based Bakkt.

The digital asset wealth platform withdrew from the U.S. in late 2022 after what it called a “dead end” in negotiations with state and federal regulators over its Earn Interest Product. The company said in 2022 it could no longer operate in an “impossible environment” following multiple enforcement actions, including from California and New York. However, in April 2025, it announced it would return, adding had $11 billion in assets under management.

The company’s U.S. product lineup includes fixed and flexible yield programs, an integrated crypto exchange, and crypto-backed credit lines. These services are offered through a compliant framework designed to support portfolio management and liquidity access for retail and institutional clients. Fiat on- and off-ramps are available via automated clearing house (ACH) and wire transfers.

The re-entry to the U.S. follows what the company called a “period of deliberate recalibration,” signaling a longer-term commitment to regulated markets. Nexo says the move also follows its “ongoing global expansion.” Nexo cited $371 billion in global transactions processed to date, in Monday’s statement.

The firm’s broader expansion includes the acquisition of Argentina’s Buenbit and sponsorships with the ATP Dallas Open and the Audi Revolut F1 Team.

Harvard Management Company (HMC), the investment arm of Harvard University’s endowment, reduced its stake in a major Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by roughly 21 %.

Harvard rotates into ETH as Bitcoin ETF holdings shrink 21%

Simultaneously, HMC established a new multimillion-dollar position in an Ethereum (ETH) ETF, according to a quarterly 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The filing, which discloses Harvard’s U.S.-listed equity holdings as of December 31, 2025, shows that the endowment cut close to 1.5 million shares of the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) compared with the previous quarter.

Despite this reduction, Bitcoin (BTC) remains HMC’s largest publicly disclosed holding with a reported market value of approximately $265.8 million at year-end.

In a notable strategic move, Harvard initiated a new position in the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) acquiring about 3.87 million shares valued at an estimated $86.8 million during the same period. This represents the university’s first publicly disclosed allocation into an Ether-linked ETF.

While the filing primarily highlights the adjustment in digital-asset ETFs, it also shows broader shifts in HMC’s publicly reported equity holdings, including both increases and reductions across major tech and industrial names. However, the crypto positions, even after trimming, remain among the most significant individual line items disclosed.

Harvard University’s $56.9 billion endowment made its first foray into ether ETH$1,978.09 last quarter, even as it scaled back its exposure to bitcoin BTC$68,770.50.

According to an SEC filing, the Harvard Management Company (HMC) bought almost 3.9 million shares of BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA), valued at around $86.8 million.

The company also reduced its stake in the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) by 21%, selling roughly 1.5 million shares. The bitcoin exchange-traded fund remains Harvard’s largest publicly disclosed holding at $265.8 million.

The shift comes after the price of bitcoin dropped from an all-time high of around $125,000 in October to close the quarter just below $90,000.

The move, however, may have less to do with sentiment and more to do with market dynamics, according to Andy Constan, founder and chief investment officer at Damped Spring Advisors.

The sale could reflect the unwinding of a trade that meant to capitalize on bitcoin treasury companies trading at premiums to the value of their BTC holdings, as measured by the multiple of net asset value, or mNAV, which compares enterprise value to bitcoin value.

When bitcoin’s price was booming, digital asset treasury (DAT) firms like Strategy (MSTR) traded at high premiums to the value of the bitcoin in their treasuries. MSTR, for example, at one point traded near 2.9 mNAV, meaning investors buying the shares were paying around $2.9 to own $1 of BTC.

That premium reflects not only the underlying cash-generating business, but also the company’s potential to keep accumulating bitcoin. Still, various investors bet on that mNAV gap narrowing. They held bitcoin indirectly through IBIT and shorted the shares of Strategy and similar digital asset treasury (DAT) companies.

Then the unwind took place, according to Constan. As the price of bitcoin plunged, so did that of DAT shares. Strategy, for example, now trades at 1.2 mNAV. These traders may also be rebalancing their portfolios, as bitcoin’s price nearly doubled last year despite the drawdown, suggesting it could be above the institution’s desired portfolio allocation, he wrote on X.

Data from 13F filings with the SEC gathered by Todd Schneider at 13.info backs these points. It shows that institutions reported owning 230 million IBIT shares in the fourth quarter, down from 417 million in the third.

Harvard also boosted investments in chipmakers Broadcom and TSMC, as well as in Google’s parent company Alphabet and railroad operator Union Pacific, while trimming stakes in Amazon, Microsoft and Nvidia.

KT DeFi is introducing a renewable-energy-powered cloud mining model designed to deliver more stable, transparent yields amid ongoing crypto market volatility.

As the global cryptocurrency market continues to experience volatility and the industry enters a deep adjustment cycle, more blockchain projects are shifting from “high-volatility speculation” toward models backed by real assets. Against this bear market backdrop, KT DeFi has officially launched an innovative yield model that combines DeFi mechanisms with renewable energy assets. Through a structure built on “green hash power + on-chain finance,” the platform aims to provide a more stable and sustainable income solution for the market.

A new logic for cloud mining

Traditional mining relies heavily on centralized mining farms and high electricity costs, with market fluctuations directly impacting returns. KT DeFi powers its computing centers with renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, reducing energy cost volatility while enhancing operational stability.

By integrating DeFi-based smart contract distribution mechanisms, mining rewards are recorded and settled on-chain, minimizing manual intervention and strengthening transparency and user trust.

This model not only optimizes the cost structure of computing power but also aligns with global green finance and ESG development trends, giving cloud mining stronger long-term asset value potential.

Core advantages of KT DeFi

Green energy-powered hash rate
Utilizes renewable energy to reduce electricity cost risks and establish a long-term, sustainable yield foundation.

Low-barrier cloud mining
No need to purchase or maintain mining hardware. Users can participate in hash power rewards by subscribing to smart contracts, enabling flexible and convenient access.

Institutional-grade security system
100% of user assets are stored in offline cold wallets with private key isolation. Multi-layered security measures safeguard platform and fund safety.

Automated smart contract settlement
Operates through DeFi mechanisms with automatic profit settlement every 24 hours. Transparent, traceable, and free from manual interference.

24/7 professional support
Round-the-clock online services ensure smooth operations and an enhanced user experience.

How to participate in KT DeFi

Step 1: Register an account
New users can sign up through the official KT DeFi platform (new users may receive a $17 bonus).

Step 2: Select a hash power product
Users can then choose cloud mining products with different durations and yield structures based on their financial goals and risk preferences.

Step 3: Receive earnings
The system automatically calculates and distributes mining rewards according to production output and protocol rules. Users may choose to withdraw or reinvest their earnings.

About KT DeFi

KT DeFi is a UK-registered digital technology company specializing in secure cryptocurrency cloud computing (hash power) services. The platform operates under authorization and regulatory oversight of the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), in compliance with applicable laws and regulations.

Founded in 2019, KT DeFi serves more than five million users worldwide. Through enterprise-grade data centers and cloud computing technologies, the company lowers the entry barriers to digital asset mining, enabling users to participate without owning hardware.

Supported by secure infrastructure and scalable computing resources, KT DeFi is committed to delivering stable, efficient, and user-friendly cloud mining solutions.

To learn more about KT DeFi, visit the official website and download the app. Official email: [email protected].

Building long-term value in a bear market

Bear markets often represent critical periods for technological upgrades and business model evolution. By combining DeFi financial mechanisms with renewable energy-powered computing resources, KT DeFi not only reshapes the logic of cloud mining returns but also offers a new model for sustainable industry development.

In the face of market cycles, building robust, transparent, and low-energy infrastructure will be a key step toward the long-term maturation of the crypto ecosystem.

TLDR

• NVIDIA commands 80% market share in AI chips with H100 and H200 GPUs setting industry standards for language model training
• Microsoft GitHub Copilot generates over $100 million annually while Azure AI services accelerate cloud revenue growth
• Alphabet’s Gemini AI models compete with GPT-4 using exclusive data from Search, YouTube, and Android platforms
• Palantir’s AIP platform drives commercial revenue acceleration by operationalizing AI in enterprise workflows
• CrowdStrike’s Falcon platform analyzes trillions of weekly security events using AI, maintaining 120%+ customer retention

The AI industry has transitioned from speculation to commercial reality. Five companies now lead the market with proven revenue streams and competitive advantages.

These stocks range from semiconductor manufacturers to security platforms. Each demonstrates actual earnings from AI products rather than future promises.

NVIDIA Leads AI Chip Market

NVIDIA holds approximately 80% of the AI chip market. Its H100 and H200 graphics processing units train most major language models.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

The Blackwell architecture launches soon with enhanced performance capabilities. NVIDIA’s CUDA software platform serves as the industry standard for AI development.

Microsoft, Amazon, and Google buy NVIDIA chips to power their cloud AI services. The company expands into AI inference chips while building new data center partnerships.

NVIDIA’s market position remains strong as cloud providers compete for AI infrastructure. The software ecosystem creates barriers that competitors struggle to overcome.

Microsoft Monetizes OpenAI Partnership

Microsoft invested $13 billion in OpenAI and shows clear returns. GitHub Copilot now exceeds $100 million in annual recurring revenue.

Microsoft Corporation, MSFT

Microsoft 365 Copilot gains enterprise customers despite premium pricing. Azure cloud growth accelerates as businesses adopt turnkey AI solutions.

The company profits from both infrastructure through Azure and applications through productivity tools. This dual approach maximizes revenue from AI adoption across customer segments.

Alphabet Offers Value Play

Alphabet operates DeepMind and Google Brain research divisions. Gemini AI models now match GPT-4 in capabilities and performance.

The company owns proprietary training data from Search, YouTube, and Android. Competitors cannot replicate these exclusive datasets.

Google Cloud grows as enterprises implement Vertex AI platform services. Search integration proceeds carefully to preserve advertising revenue streams.

Alphabet trades below Microsoft’s valuation despite comparable AI technology. The price difference creates opportunity for value-focused investors.

Palantir Solves Enterprise AI Challenges

Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform accelerates U.S. commercial revenue. The software operationalizes AI within existing enterprise workflows.

Companies face a “last mile” problem moving AI from pilot to production. Palantir addresses this challenge through its integration approach.

Government contracts deliver stable baseline revenue. Commercial expansion provides higher growth potential as the customer base expands.

Business economics improve as the platform scales. The company transitions from growth speculation to sustainable profitability.

CrowdStrike Defends Against AI Threats

CrowdStrike’s Falcon platform processes trillions of security events weekly. AI and machine learning detect threats in real-time.

Cybercriminals increasingly weaponize AI for sophisticated attacks. CrowdStrike’s AI-native architecture counters these evolving threats.

The company maintains customer retention above 120% while staying profitable. Platform capabilities expand to address new security challenges.

CrowdStrike provides lower-risk AI exposure than pure-play alternatives. The cybersecurity foundation offers stability beyond AI hype cycles.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) enters a new week at a critical crossroads as traders weigh the possibility of a fresh short squeeze. The weekly close edged above a key long-term trend line, reinforcing arguments for a potential upside breakout, with the price hovering near the $68,800 mark on Bitstamp. Liquidity conditions remained unsettled, as liquidations stayed elevated and long positions anchored around the current spot, raising the stakes for any sustained move. On the macro front, a slate of U.S. data—most notably the Personal Consumption Expenditures index and fourth-quarter gross domestic product—could inject volatility later in the week. On-chain metrics, meanwhile, painted a cautious picture: the net unrealized profit and loss ratio surged toward multi-year highs, and a chorus of loss-making UTXOs suggested risk of a renewed downside regime if sellers re-enter the market.

At roughly $68,343, the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) remains a pivotal line in the sand for market participants, closely tied to the prior all-time highs at just over $69,000. The pairing of the 200-week EMA and the old peak forms a duo that traders watch as the market negotiates whether to break free from a multi-month range. In recent days, observers noted that Bitcoin had re-entered an area it previously spent seven months defending, fueling conversations about whether the range would persist or give way to a decisive move higher. The sense of an impending decision was reinforced by analyst commentary that highlighted the previous extended range around $69,000 and the tendency for Bitcoin to react to sentiment contrarian to broader market moves.

Prominent traders pointed to a possible path to $75,000 as a potential trigger for a “surprise recovery.” CrypNuevo, a well-known voice in on-chain and chart analysis, referenced the extended range around $69,000 that has dominated price action in 2024. He observed that the price has retraced much of its wick from February’s dip to 15-month lows, suggesting the market could test the range lows before any sustained breakout. The analyst warned that a test of the 50% wick-fill level—interpreted as a signal for further wick fills—could imperil the bull case if acceptance fails near the range’s midpoint. Yet he also underscored a contrary sentiment: Bitcoin often moves counter to prevailing market mood, implying a potential for a bullish reversal should risk appetite improve.

On the liquidity front, the picture remained delicate. CoinGlass data showed total crypto-wide liquidations exceeding $250 million in the 24 hours through the reading, even as BTC/USD traded within a relatively tight window of less than $3,000. Longs remained concentrated just below $68,000, according to the same data source, a setup that some traders view as a potential target for whales seeking to seize liquidity. A trader known on X as CW noted that, despite liquidations, longs still held the upper hand overall, maintaining a bullish tilt in the current structure. The market also saw spikes in short liquidations when BTC briefly pressed above $70,000 around the Wall Street open, with futures liquidations hitting levels not seen since late 2024. Bitfinex’s social reaction highlighted a perception that a demand-following rally could throttle the trend’s downside momentum if spot buying intensifies.

Macro calendars added another dimension of potential volatility. The U.S. market holiday on Monday—the Presidents’ Day observance—could suppress liquidity at the outset of the week, with volatility expected to pick up as the data calendar fills in. The release of the PCE Index, widely regarded as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is scheduled alongside Q4 GDP data on the same Friday. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed odds of the Fed keeping policy rates unchanged at its next meeting hovering above 90%, reinforcing a fragile macro backdrop where even small surprises could reverberate through risk assets. The Kobeissi Letter underscored the likelihood of heightened volatility as macro signals accumulate and geopolitical tensions persist.

Market researchers and on-chain analysts also weighed in on the longer-term trajectory. CryptoQuant’s mid-February Quicktakes signaled that the next leg of BTC’s price action would depend on investor resilience as the market navigates sub-$60,000 support zones. The analysis highlighted the confluence of the 200-week moving average and the realized price, around $55,800, as a potential accumulation area should the regime shift toward weakness persist. In contrast, other metrics suggested a more precarious picture: the net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) indicator hovered near values that imply widespread realized losses, a sign that holders could be capitulating or preparing for a regime shift rather than a routine pullback. CryptoQuant’s aSOPR metric also registered readings near breakeven, a signal historically associated with stress in the market’s cycle and potential reset conditions rather than a simple correction.

The evolving on-chain picture has left some analysts cautious about declaring a definitive bottom. While the current price range has produced a visible bounce from February’s lows, the same signals that previously warned of a potential bear market—constant losses realized by long-term holders and elevated spend activity at lower price levels—have not yet abated. One veteran aggregator noted that a sustained reclaim of the 1.0 level on aSOPR would be a meaningful sign of renewed strength; in its absence, the risk of a more extended consolidation or a deeper correction remains on the table. The broader consensus remains split, emphasizing that macro catalysts, on-chain dynamics, and liquidity conditions will be the primary drivers of the near-term trajectory.

Why it matters

The significance of the current juncture lies in how Bitcoin navigates the intersection of on-chain signals and macro liquidity. A weekly close above the 200-week EMA has historically been a meaningful indicator of durability, potentially inviting fresh risk-taking and a revaluation of risk assets across the market. Yet the same data that points to a potential upside also reveals fragility: NUPL’s elevated readings imply a concentration of unrealized losses, while aSOPR’s proximity to the breakeven line suggests that coins changing hands are not decisively profitable, a factor that could curb momentum if sellers re-emerge. These dynamics matter for both long-term holders considering accumulation and traders seeking tactical entries in a range-bound market.

For market participants, the looming PCE data and GDP figures, coupled with Fed policy expectations, will shape risk sentiment. If the data disappoints, risk assets could experience renewed volatility as traders reassess the trajectory of monetary policy. Conversely, a resilient inflation print or softer GDP print could reinforce the sense that the environment remains conducive to risk assets’ re-pricing, potentially fueling a renewed flush of liquidity into Bitcoin and the broader crypto sector. In this context, the market’s behavior around $69,000 becomes more than a technical milestone – it functions as a psychological fulcrum for bulls and bears alike.

From an investment perspective, the evolving on-chain health metrics emphasize the importance of risk management and scenario planning. The narrative around a potential regime shift—where a bear-market-like phase could assert itself even without a classic downturn—highlights the value of diversified exposure and adaptive strategies that respond to changes in liquidity, macro surprises, and the cadence of market momentum. While the short-term impulse may hinge on a volatile data calendar and liquidity dynamics, the longer arc remains contingent on whether on-chain fundamentals align with price action, reinforcing the idea that traders should stay nimble as the week unfolds.

What to watch next

• Watch BTC’s reaction around the 200-week EMA near $68,343 and the prior ATH just above $69,000 for any sustained breakout or rejection.
• Monitor the upcoming PCE index and Q4 GDP releases for volatility spikes and potential shifts in Fed rate expectations.
• Track on-chain metrics like NUPL and aSOPR for signs of capitulation pressure or renewed accumulation.
• Observe liquidation dynamics on CoinGlass, especially around the $70,000 level and the above-$68,000 zone where longs have concentrated.
• Assess market sentiment around long-term holders and whether a move toward the $75,000 target could materialize if a short squeeze gains momentum.

Sources & verification

• BTC price and level around $68,800 on Bitstamp, with reference to TradingView data
• BTC/USD proximity to the 200-week EMA (~$68,343) and the $69,000 ATH reference
• Liquidation data from CoinGlass showing totals over $250 million in the examined 24-hour period
• Fed rate expectations from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool
• On-chain indicators from CryptoQuant (NUPL and aSOPR) and associated Quicktakes

Bitcoin at a crossroads as market signals converge

The ongoing convergence of price behavior, liquidity dynamics, and macro catalysts underscores a Bitcoin narrative defined by range-aware uncertainty rather than a clear, directional breakout. As traders calibrate their positions ahead of key inflation and growth indicators, the market remains sensitive to even modest shifts in risk appetite. Whether the week culminates in a renewed squeeze toward higher ground or a renewed test of support depends on a complex mix of on-chain health, price action within the established range, and the trajectory of macro policy signals that continue to influence sentiment across crypto markets.

Bloomberg Intelligence macro strategist Mike McGlone said Monday that collapsing crypto prices may signal broader financial stress, warning bitcoin could revert toward $10,000 and potentially foreshadow the next U.S. recession.

In a post on X, McGlone also said the long-standing “buy the dip” mentality that has supported risk assets since 2008 could be breaking down as digital assets weaken and volatility dynamics shift.

After climbing back to $70,841 by 07:00 UTC on Feb. 15 from $65,395 late on Feb. 12, bitcoin was hovering around $68,800 by mid-morning. The broader crypto market was also in the red Monday, with 85 of the top 100 tokens posting losses. Privacy-focused coins monero and zcash were down 10% and 8%, respectively over the past 24 hours.

“Healthy Correction is what we should hear soon from stock market analysts (who risk unemployment if not onboard), following collapsing cryptos,” McGlone wrote. “The buy the dips mantra since 2008 may be over.”

McGlone pointed to several macro indicators that reflect elevated risk conditions. U.S. stock market capitalization relative to gross domestic product (GDP) has reached its highest level in roughly a century, he noted. At the same time, 180-day volatility in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is at its lowest level in about eight years, McGlone added.

He also described the “crypto bubble” as “imploding,” adding that “Trump euphoria” has peaked and is contributing to contagion across markets. Meanwhile, gold and silver are “grabbing alpha” at a pace last seen about half a century ago, with rising volatility that he said could “trickle up” into equities.

McGlone shared a chart comparing bitcoin divided by 10 for scaling, with the S&P 500. As of Feb. 13, both were hovering below 7,000 on his graphic. He said that “volatile and beta-dependent” bitcoin is unlikely to stay above that level if broader equity beta weakens.

The Bloomberg analyst identified 5,600 on the S&P 500, equivalent to roughly $56,000 for bitcoin under his scaling, as an initial “normal reversion” level. Beyond that, part of his base case calls for bitcoin to revert toward $10,000, contingent on a peak in the U.S. stock market.

McGlone’s outlook splits opinion

Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam and a market analyst, told CoinDesk that McGlone’s thesis assumes market extremes must resolve through collapse and that bitcoin’s equity beta guarantees a proportional crash.

“That’s false equivalence and single-path bias,” Fernandes said. “Markets can also resolve excess through time, rotation, or inflation erosion. A macro slowdown could mean consolidation or a $40,000 to $50,000 reset, not a systemic unwind to $10,000.”

Fernandes added that a move toward $10,000 would likely require a true systemic event, including sharp liquidity contraction, widening credit spreads, forced deleveraging across funds and a disorderly equity drawdown.

“That implies recession plus financial stress, not just slower growth,” he said. “Absent a credit shock or policy mistake that drains global liquidity, that kind of collapse remains a low-probability tail risk.”

• Digital asset investment products saw outflows of over $173 million last week.
• Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded the most outflows amid broader price weakness.
• Solana and XRP maintained their inflow momentum despite the overall downturn.

Digital asset investment products recorded another week of outflows, extending the capital flight to four weeks.

As has been the case throughout the bearish phase, Bitcoin and Ethereum led the negative trend, with investor caution amid market volatility and the overriding sentiment key catalysts.

However, CoinShares reports that Solana and XRP notched inflows despite recent price declines.

Crypto ETP outflows extend to four weeks

According to James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, digital asset investment products saw a fourth consecutive week of outflows totalling $173 million for the period to February 13, 2026.

The redemptions bring the cumulative four-week run to over $3.7 billion, Butterfill wrote in a weekly report published on Monday.

CoinShares notes that the week started positively with inflows of $575 million on Monday, Feb. 9, 2026.

However, that flipped red as risk assets sold off, pushing $853 million from crypto exchange-traded products by mid-week.

That dip coincided with fresh price weakness across major cryptocurrencies, a scenario that intensified as BTC touched new lows around $60k.

Gains for stocks and cryptocurrencies nonetheless saw sentiment flip slightly bullish on the latest CPI data release.

According to Butterfill, the market recorded $105 million in inflows on Friday.

Yet, net flows remained negative for the week. ETP trading volumes dropped sharply to $27 billion from a record $63 billion the previous week.

Analysts note that this pattern reflects the overall profit-taking and risk-aversion environment.

A look at regional distribution suggests US-based products continue to bear the brunt of the outflows.

Solana and XRP defy outflows trend

Although BTC and ETH led the way in terms of volumes of outflows this past week, a few altcoins showed resilience.

The market saw strong institutional interest in Solana and XRP even as prices faced pressure.

Over the past week, XRP ETFs and other digital asset investment products drew $33.4 million, while Solana attracted more than $31 million.

Both altcoins build on last week’s figures of roughly $48.5 million for SOL and $62.9 million for XRP, according to CoinShares data.

Elsewhere, the oracle network Chainlink (LINK) also saw inflows, albeit a modest $1.1 million.

Butterfill says the inflows reflect bullish sentiment on key coins, a factor that points to investor confidence in selective altcoin markets.

Bitcoin and Ethereum lead ETP weekly outflows

Bitcoin experienced the harshest weekly outflows as bears showcased their strength.

Data shows investors pulled over $133 million from various BTC-tied products.

Uncertainty meant even short Bitcoin investment products added to the overall pressure, recording outflows totaling $15.4 million over the past two weeks.

The same outlook hit Ethereum, which saw more than $85 million in outflows amid waning investor appetite.