Gemini pushed through a better-than-expected fourth quarter even as the broader crypto market remained under pressure. The exchange reported revenue of $60.3 million for Q4, up 39% from a year earlier and ahead of consensus estimates of about $51.7 million. However, the company also posted a net loss of $140.8 million for the quarter, widening from a $27 million loss in the same period a year ago. For the full year, Gemini’s loss totaled $585 million in 2025, compared with $156.6 million in 2024. The results come after the platform went public in September and amid a late-2025 crypto drawdown that saw Bitcoin slide from its peak above $126,000 in October.

Shares of Gemini initially moved higher in after-hours trading, climbing as much as 14% to a high of $6.83 before settling around $6.36, for a gain of roughly 6% on the session. The day’s action mirrored the market’s mixed reception to a growth-focused quarter that delivered a revenue win but did not escape the ongoing profitability challenge for many crypto incumbents.

Key takeaways

• Gemini’s Q4 revenue of $60.3 million rose 39% year over year and beat estimates of about $51.7 million, signaling business momentum even as trading volumes cooled.
• The quarter produced a net loss of $140.8 million, deepening from a $27 million loss a year earlier; the company’s 2025 loss reached $585 million, higher than 2024’s $156.6 million.
• Management cited deliberate fee-structure optimization and other efficiency measures as drivers of revenue growth, even with a softer trading environment.
• Gemini is accelerating a strategic shift toward a markets-focused organization, highlighted by the launch of Gemini Predictions across all 50 states and a plan to leverage that infrastructure for perpetual futures once approved in the U.S.

Strategic ambitions sharpen as cost discipline takes center stage

In a February update, Gemini said it was trimming its workforce by roughly 30% since the start of 2026, citing challenging market conditions. The leadership framing this downsizing as part of a broader pivot toward a more AI-driven, efficiency-first operating model. Co-founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss highlighted a rapid integration of artificial intelligence into the development process, noting that AI is now used in more than 40% of production code changes and is expected to rise significantly in the near term. “Not using AI at Gemini will soon be the equivalent of showing up to work with a typewriter instead of a laptop,” they wrote in a shareholder letter.

The Winklevoss duo signaled a clear pivot toward a U.S.-centric growth strategy, underscoring optimism about a pro-crypto regulatory environment in the United States. They stressed that 2026 would be about focusing and expanding in America, aligning with a broader investor interest in platforms that can scale within clearer regulatory boundaries.

From trading floors to markets infrastructure: Predictions and futures ambitions

Gemini has been building out its markets-oriented toolkit, most notably with Gemini Predictions. The platform rolled out its in-house prediction market across all 50 states in December, shortly after obtaining a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The company described its longer-term plan as turning Gemini into a “markets company” anchored by predictions, with the potential to extend that framework to perpetual futures contracts once U.S. approval is secured.

The December launch followed a prior line of coverage noting Gemini’s broader ambition to expand beyond traditional exchange functions into more complex financial primitives. As part of the 2026 roadmap, the company intends to refine and grow Predictions while simultaneously scaling its credit card program and exchange services, tapping into a more diversified revenue mix that could help weather ongoing volatility in crypto trading volumes. In evaluating the strategic path, investors will also be watching how regulatory feedback in the U.S. shapes the pace of approvals for new product categories, including perpetual futures.

These plans come against the backdrop of a February update that confirmed Gemini’s withdrawal from the U.K., the EU and Australia, a move the company attributed to tougher market conditions. The leadership’s stated aim is to “focus and double down on America,” a stance that aligns with the firm’s renewed investment in U.S.-based market infrastructure and its growing bets on a more favorable regulatory climate for crypto innovation.

The company’s quarterly results reflect a broader pattern among newer, publicly traded crypto platforms: revenue growth can outpace trading volumes due to fee-structure optimization, product diversification and active expansion into non-trading monetization streams. Gemini’s fourth-quarter performance—driven by its credit card program and pricing strategy—offers a data point suggesting that meaningful upside can still emerge even amid a subdued price cycle. The question for investors now is whether the path to profitability can be accelerated through AI-enabled efficiency gains and a clearer, U.S.-centered growth engine, supported by product bets in prediction markets and, potentially, regulated futures.

According to the company’s investor materials, the Q4 results marked the highest quarterly revenue in three years, reflecting the impact of the revised fee structure through the back half of 2025 and a push into more monetizable products. The combination of revenue resilience and continued investment in AI-driven scale positions Gemini as a case study in how crypto platforms seek to balance growth with cost discipline during a protracted market downturn.

For investors and builders watching the sector, the key takeaway is that 2026 could hinge on how quickly Gemini translates its market infrastructure into sustainable profitability, the pace at which U.S. regulators greenlight broader product suites, and how effectively the firm scales non-trading revenue streams, like predictions markets and card programs, in a regulated environment.

Readers should keep an eye on next-quarter earnings and regulatory developments that could determine the speed at which Gemini completes its shift toward a broader markets-facing business model while continuing to nurture its consumer-facing products.

Morgan Stanley wants its planned spot bitcoin BTC$70,748.89 ETF to trade under the ticker MSBT when it debuts.

The investment bank disclosed the ticker in its latest filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), amending its January application for the fund.

The filing also revealed key fund details, which include a 10,000-share creation unit required to build the ETF, and a planned $1 million seed investment, or the initial money used to start the fund. The investment bank bought two shares early this month for audit purposes, it added.

According to an earlier filing, BNY Mellon has been designated to handle the fund’s cash and administrative functions, while Coinbase will serve as prime broker and custodian of its Bitcoin holdings.

Morgan Stanley’s move underscores Wall Street’s growing push into crypto, as established banks and custodians work to make bitcoin more accessible to mainstream investors.

If approved, the Morgan Stanley ETF would let investors get exposure to bitcoin without owning it, joining 11 other spot ETFs, including BlackRock’s IBIT, that have been active since January 2024. Those funds have already attracted over $56 billion in investor inflows.

The investment bank also filed an application for a Solana ETF alongside bitcoin earlier this year, but it has yet to submit any updates for that fund.

The major gold trade association, World Gold Council, and the Boston Consulting Group have proposed a new platform to modernize how the precious metal operates in digital financial systems.

The World Gold Council said on Thursday that it published a white paper on “Gold as a Service,” a new platform to “support the issuance and operation of scalable, interoperable digital gold products.”

The open platform would connect the physical custody of gold with the digital systems used to issue and manage tokenized gold products. 

“By standardizing essential market processes such as custody coordination, reconciliation, compliance, and redemption, the model aims to reduce operational complexity, improve access, and enable greater consistency across digital gold products,” the World Gold Council said. 

Crypto-native tokenized gold products include Tether Gold (XAUT) or Pax Gold (PAXG), which have formed their own custody, compliance and redemption models, but the World Gold Council’s standard could have more sway with institutions due to the trade group’s prominence.

Features include audits, fungibility, and liquidity 

Key features of the Gold as a Service would include standardizing tokenized gold issuance and management, increasing digital gold’s fungibility, embedding audits and assurance, enabling interoperability with existing finance rails, and improving liquidity in lending and borrowing markets. 

World Gold Council CEO, David Tait, said that financial services are undergoing a “rapid and pervasive digital transformation” and gold must also evolve to maintain its role in the global financial system. 

“Shared infrastructure can help gold become more accessible, more easily traded and fully integrated into modern financial systems — ensuring it remains as relevant tomorrow as it has been for millennia,” he added.

Related: Retail tripled gold buying in last 6 months as Wall Street sells

Matthias Tauber, a managing director and senior partner at Boston Consulting Group, said, “The question is no longer whether gold will be digital; it’s how it can participate in modern financial systems without compromising physical integrity.” 

Commodities are 20% of tokenized asset market

According to RWA.xyz, tokenized commodities such as gold account for around $5.5 billion, or 20% of the total on-chain value of tokenized real-world assets, a segment that has grown by 340% over the past 12 months, as demand for gold has skyrocketed. 

Tether’s tokenized gold product has a market capitalization of $2.6 billion, up 17% over the past 12 months, while Pax Gold has a market cap of $2.3 billion, according to CoinGecko. 

On Thursday, crypto exchange Bybit launched a yield-bearing tokenized gold product that lets users earn interest on Tether Gold. 

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