Crypto World
XRP Price Structure Keeps 900% Upside Target Active
TLDR
- XRP surged 647% from $0.49 to $3.66 after its late 2024 breakout.
- The token now trades near $1.38 following a 70% pullback from its peak.
- Analyst Javon Marks said the $15 measured move target remains unchanged.
- A move to $15 would represent more than 900% upside from current levels.
- XForceGlobal said the current price action reflects compression rather than weakness.
XRP price has returned to focus after its late 2024 breakout triggered a 647% rally to $3.66 by mid 2025. The asset now trades near $1.38 following a 70% pullback from its peak. Analysts state that the original breakout structure still supports a larger upside move.
XRP Price Structure Keeps $15 Measured Move in Play
Javon Marks stated on X that the “$15 measured move target goes unchanged” despite recent volatility. He based his view on the multi-year triangle breakout that occurred in November 2024.
The XRP price surged from $0.49 to $3.66 after the breakout was confirmed. Marks calculated the target by extending the triangle height from the breakout point. He said the structure still supports a 10x move from current levels. From $1.38, a rise to $15 would mark a gain above 1,000%.
Meanwhile, the XRP price has declined by over 38% on a yearly basis. The token also slipped 4.3% in the past 24 hours. However, Marks maintained that price swings do not invalidate the broader breakout setup.
Measured move analysis uses the full height of consolidation patterns. Analysts apply this method after confirmed breakouts. In this case, the late 2024 move remains the reference point.
Analysts Cite Compression Phase After 70% Pullback
Korean Elliott Wave analyst XForceGlobal said, “it’s all coming together” for XRP from a structural view. He pointed to the rally that revisited the prior all-time high zone near $3.66.
He also referenced the retracement back toward the $1 region. According to him, this reset completed two major milestones within the broader wave count. He described the current sideways movement as “compression, not weakness.”
XForceGlobal earlier projected $6 as a conservative Fibonacci extension level. He later referenced $5 and $10 as possible targets within the same wave structure. He stated that short-term volatility does not disrupt the impulsive expansion outlook.
At the same time, XRP has printed five consecutive red monthly candles. This pattern last appeared during the 2016 to 2017 consolidation period.
That earlier stretch preceded a sharp rally in 2017. Current market data also showed over $900 million in realized losses within one week.
Community commentator Archie projected a long-term chart target near $83. He based this outlook on historical breakout extensions and long cycle projections.
An $83 price would imply a multi-trillion-dollar market capitalization. Meanwhile, XRP continues to trade around $1.38 at the time of reporting.
Hailey Welch, the online social media influencer, popularly known as the “Hawk Tuah girl,” said that the implosion of the “HAWK” memecoin, which she promoted in 2024, and the ensuing social backlash “traumatized” her.
“I got talked into doing something that I didn’t know anything about, really, but you’ve got to be really careful what you put your name on,” Welsh told Andrew Callaghan of the Channel 5 YouTube channel on Friday.
Welsh said she fully cooperated with a Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) probe in 2025, which cleared her of any wrongdoing, and that she did not possess any of the funds from the memecoin launch, nor did she have the technical expertise to launch the coin.
She added that the total amount lost by “real people” in the botched memecoin release was not significant, with her lawyer estimating the total dollar amount lost by retail investors at about $200,000.
Despite this, Welsh said she received death threats and attempted to keep a low profile for months after the incident, which took a toll on her mental health. She said:
“I was starting to get death threats and everything else. People telling me I owe them all this money, and I’m like, ‘I didn’t do this.’ I’m sitting here, and I’m the one getting hit for this. It’s rough. It’s one of those things where if you come out of the house, you put your head down.”
However, not everyone was convinced by Welsh’s comments. “No one should feel bad for the ‘trauma,’” onchain sleuth ZachXBT said.
“She starts posting about meme coins. The entirety of [crypto Twitter] tells her ‘do not launch a token.’ She launches a memecoin anyway, and after, she blames partners and disappears off social media, with followers losing funds,” he added.
Related: Japan PM Takaichi disavows ‘Sanae Token’ after memecoin hits $28M peak
The HAWK memecoin crashes and burns shortly after arrival
The HAWK memecoin launched in December 2024 and surged to a market capitalization of over $490 million mere hours after going live.
Hawk collapsed by over 91% the following day, falling to a market cap of about $41 million, and was widely characterized as a rug pull.
In December 2024, an investor lawsuit was filed against the team and entities that created and managed the memecoin launch, but not Welsh, alleging that the entities sold unregistered securities.
Magazine: Memecoin degeneracy is funding groundbreaking anti-aging research
A stablecoin linked to the crypto project Resolv Labs has fallen off its dollar peg after a deliberate exploit allowed an attacker to mint millions of USR tokens. Resolv Labs announced on X that the protocol’s functions were paused to curb further damage and that the team is working on recovery efforts. On Sunday, the attacker minted 50 million USR, apparently by depositing 100,000 worth of USDC, prompting a rapid depeg and a liquidity crunch across the USR market.
Subsequent on-chain data and posts from observers indicated additional minting of another 30 million USR, intensifying concerns about the contract’s minting logic and the integrity of the asset’s price mechanism. The incident has spilled into multiple liquidity pools, with USR trading far below its $1 target and liquidity drying up as participants moved to exit into stablecoins and other assets.
As the market absorbed the shock, D2 Finance assessed that the minting function on USR’s contract was compromised in some way—whether the oracle was gamed, the off-chain signer was breached, or the value validation between request and completion was absent. The unfolding events have underscored ongoing material risks in DeFi tokens that rely on on-chain oracles and programmable minting rules, even when paired with ostensibly simple dollar-pegged design goals.
Key takeaways
- Attacker minted 50 million USR by depositing USDC, triggering a rapid depeg from $1 and a rush to exit across multiple protocols.
- Early reports indicate a second round of minting added another 30 million USR, intensifying liquidity strain and price slippage.
- The attacker’s cash-out path moved USR into USDC and USDT, then into ETH, with signs of aggressive, high-speed liquidation across venues.
- Resolv Labs paused protocol functions to prevent further damage and is pursuing recovery; the incident highlights potential weaknesses in mint functions and cross-protocol risk controls.
- Market data shows USR trading around the high 80s of a dollar, after a flash-crash low near 2.5 cents on Curve Finance; liquidity across the USR/USDC pool has been severely disrupted.
What happened on the chain and why it matters
On-chain monitoring and social posts outline a sequence that began with a minting event: the attacker leveraged a vulnerability in USR’s contract to generate 50 million new tokens. The attacker funded this mint by placing USDC into the contract, effectively borrowing value to create new supply without tangible backing. The immediate result was a dramatic loss of confidence in USR’s peg and a wave of rapid transfers as users sought to convert USR into more stable assets.
Analysts from D2 Finance described the mint function as “broken” or inadequately protected. They elevated three possible root causes: a compromised oracle feeding price data, a breached or compromised off-chain signer authorizing minting, or simply missing or incorrectly enforced validation between the request to mint and the completion of that mint. The exact mechanism may influence how quickly the protocol can recover and what kind of remedies (including contract fixes or token burns) could restore value stability.
The incident comes amid a broader backdrop where crypto exchanges and protocols have reported a decline in February hacks, even as on-chain exploits and phishing remain persistent threats. The event with USR underscores that dollar-like stablecoins tied to smaller projects can suffer outsized volatility if the underlying minting logic is vulnerable or if market liquidity is fragile.
Market and recovery dynamics
According to observers, the attacker moved the minted USR across several protocols, swapping into stablecoins such as USDC and USDT and then converting into ETH. The exit flow fits a pattern described as a “full-speed” DeFi cashout, where an attacker prioritizes rapid liquidity withdrawal to minimize exposure to slippage and liquidity gaps across multiple venues.
As USR traded, prices showed a steep deviation from the $1 peg. In some venues, USR fetched as little as 50 cents on certain trading pairs, reflecting liquidity constraints and slippage across protocols. By early reporting, USR hovered around the upper 80-cent range, roughly 13% below the peg, with the Curve Finance USR/USDC pool recording a flash crash to around 2.5 cents at one point. The pool’s 24-hour volume stood at several million dollars, signaling that liquidity was being strained while traders sought to capitalize on temporary price dislocations. The liquidity crisis extended to other venues, as reflected in observable on-chain transaction failures tied to urgent liquidation attempts.
Resolv Labs responded by pausing protocol activities to prevent further exploitation, a step aimed at stabilizing the situation while investigators and the team’s security partners assess next steps. Observers have noted that the speed and scale of the minting and cashout imply a concerted attempt to harvest value before confidence returns, a pattern consistent with DeFi hacks that pivot toward rapid liquidity extraction.
The broader DeFi community will be watching whether Resolv Labs can implement robust fixes to the minting mechanism, restore liquidity, and restore trust in USR. The incident raises questions about whether similar vulnerabilities exist in other projects’ minting contracts and how well-layered governance, oracles, and signer architectures withstand sophisticated attacks.
What readers should watch next
Recovery trajectories in complex DeFi incidents hinge on several moving parts: contract-level security patches, post-incident audits, and the resilience of liquidity across major venues. Key areas to monitor include whether Resolv Labs can implement a secure upgrade to the USR contract, how the project handles valuation and backstopping to restore the peg, and whether any external liquidity support or governance-driven measures are deployed to stabilize the market.
Investors and users should also track updates from security researchers and exchanges, who may publish further on-chain findings, potential incident timelines, and recommended risk mitigations for similar tokens. As with many DeFi exploits, the line between on-chain vulnerabilities and off-chain governance decisions will shape both the speed and the scope of a potential recovery.
In the near term, the market will likely remain cautious around USR while the team’s recovery plan takes shape and third-party audits validate fixes to the minting logic. The event will be a reminder that even seemingly straightforward stablecoins can carry outsized risk if their core economic controls are not airtight, especially in a fast-moving, liquidity-dependent ecosystem.
Crypto World
Crypto Layoffs Surge in 2026 as Firms Slash Jobs, Blame Weak Markets and AI Integration
TLDR:
- Over 450 crypto jobs have been cut in weeks, with Gemini, Algorand, and Crypto.com leading the layoffs in early 2026.
- New crypto job postings dropped roughly 80% year-over-year, averaging just 6.5 listings per day in January 2026.
- Companies like Gemini and Crypto.com blamed AI integration for workforce reductions, shifting toward leaner operations.
- Industry experts say AI is not the real cause — collapsed sectors like restaking, DePIN, and L2s are driving most cuts.
Crypto layoffs are accelerating in early 2026, with several major firms cutting hundreds of jobs within weeks. Algorand Foundation, Gemini, Crypto.com, OP Labs, and PIP Labs have all trimmed their workforces recently.
Companies cite weak market conditions, falling token prices, and AI integration as primary reasons. New job postings on major crypto boards have dropped roughly 80% year-over-year. Industry observers warn the visible cuts may only be the beginning of a deeper contraction across the sector.
A Wave of Job Cuts Sweeps Across the Industry
The Algorand Foundation announced on Wednesday it was cutting 25% of its staff. The foundation employs fewer than 200 people, meaning roughly 50 positions were eliminated.
The company cited “the uncertain global macro environment” and a broader crypto market downturn as driving factors.
Gemini announced around 200 layoffs in February, equal to roughly a quarter of its staff. That figure climbed to 30% by mid-March.
In a shareholder letter, the company stated, “AI is now too powerful not to use at Gemini,” adding that not using AI would soon be like arriving to work with a typewriter instead of a laptop.
Crypto.com then announced it was trimming 12% of its workforce, equivalent to about 180 roles. A company spokesperson told CoinDesk, “We are joining the list of companies integrating enterprise-wide AI,” pointing to greater efficiencies that require fewer workers. CEO Kris Marszalek posted on X that companies failing to adopt AI into their processes would ultimately fail.
OP Labs, the team behind layer-2 blockchain Optimism, cut 20 employees earlier this month. PIP Labs, the team behind Story Protocol, let go of five full-time staff and three contractors. Those cuts represented approximately 10% of PIP Labs’ total workforce.
Messari, a crypto data provider now billing itself as an AI-first company, announced its third round of layoffs since 2023.
The firm once targeted a team of 1,000 analysts but now employs roughly 140 people. A CEO change also accompanied the announcement, though Messari did not disclose exact numbers.
Industry Consolidation Points to a Deeper Contraction
Excluding Messari, the companies mentioned above have announced around 450 job cuts in just a few weeks. That tally could grow, as the full scope of industry cuts typically takes months to emerge. During the crypto winter of 2022, CoinDesk tracked over 26,000 job losses across the full year.
New job postings on major crypto job boards averaged roughly 6.5 per day in January 2026. That figure is down approximately 80% compared to the same period a year earlier. The steep decline reflects a market pulling back sharply on new hiring activity.
Dan Escow, founder of crypto recruitment agency Up Top, challenged the AI-driven narrative directly. He said, “I see no real indication that these layoffs have anything to do with AI workforce replacement at scale.” He added that entire sectors like restaking, DePIN, and L2s that were once full of talent are now “basically non-existent.”
Escow further stated that companies are “forced into cost-cutting mode to buy time to figure out how to execute on whatever comes next.”
That assessment aligns with Algorand’s cuts, which hit community management and business development roles. Those are not positions typically displaced by AI tools.
Algorand’s ALGO token recently traded around $0.09, down 98% from its 2019 peak. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has lost 20% this quarter alone. M&A activity is also adding to redundancies, as acqui-hires continue displacing legacy staff across the sector.
XRP slipped lower after another failed recovery attempt, with high-volume selling pushing the token back toward key support near $1.40.
News Background
- XRP remains stuck in a broader corrective phase that has persisted since its mid-2025 peak, with rallies consistently failing to build follow-through.
- The latest pullback comes after a brief mid-March rebound stalled below $1.60, reinforcing the pattern of lower highs that has defined price action in recent months.
- Macro conditions continue to weigh on sentiment, with crypto markets trading cautiously following the Federal Reserve’s latest policy stance. XRP’s structure remains largely technical, with traders focused on whether the token can stabilize or continue drifting lower within its established range.
Price Action Summary
- XRP fell from $1.4457 to $1.4079, down roughly 2.6%
- Price traded near $1.44–$1.45 before breaking down late in the session
- Selling accelerated on a volume spike more than 3x the daily average
- The token stabilized near $1.40 after setting a low around $1.4018
Technical Analysis
- The key move was the late-session break below $1.44 support, which triggered a sharp drop on elevated volume — a sign of active selling rather than passive drift.
- Short-term structure remains weak. XRP continues to form lower highs, and recent recovery attempts have stalled below $1.60, keeping the broader downtrend intact.
- The $1.40 area is now acting as immediate support, with buyers stepping in after the breakdown. A minor bounce has formed, but price remains below prior support levels that have now turned into resistance.
- On higher timeframes, XRP is still trading within a descending channel that has guided price since mid-2025, reinforcing the idea that rallies are corrective unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.
What traders say is next?
- Traders are focused on whether XRP can hold above $1.40.
- If support stabilizes, the token may consolidate before attempting another move toward $1.44–$1.45, with a broader test near $1.55–$1.60 needed to shift momentum.
- If $1.40 breaks, downside risk opens toward the $1.30–$1.32 zone, where weaker support lies and previous moves have lacked strong buyer interest.
The math has turned against bitcoin miners, and the war is making it worse every week.
Checkonchain’s difficulty regression model, which estimates average production costs based on network difficulty and energy inputs, pegged the figure at $88,000 per bitcoin as of March 13.
Bitcoin is trading at $69,200 as on Sunday morning, creating a gap of nearly $19,000 per coin and meaning the average miner is operating at a 21% loss on every block produced.
The cost squeeze has been building since October’s crash took bitcoin from $126,000 to below $70,000, but the Iran war accelerated it. Oil above $100 feeds directly into electricity costs for mining operations, particularly the estimated 8-10% of global hashrate operating in energy markets sensitive to Middle Eastern supply.
The Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas flows, remains effectively closed to most commercial traffic. And Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday threatening to attack Iran’s power plants added a new layer of risk for miners.
The network is already showing the stress. Difficulty dropped 7.76% on Saturday to 133.79 trillion, the second-largest negative adjustment of 2026 after February’s 11.16% plunge during Winter Storm Fern. Difficulty is now nearly 10% below where it started the year and far below November 2025’s all-time high near 155 trillion.
The hashrate has retreated to roughly 920 EH/s, well below the record 1 zetahash level reached in 2025. Average block times during the last epoch stretched to 12 minutes and 36 seconds, well above the 10-minute target.
Hashprice, the metric tracking expected miner revenue per unit of computing power, is hovering around $33.30 per petahash per second per day according to Luxor’s Hashrate Index. That’s near breakeven for most hardware and not far from the all-time low of $28 hit on Feb. 23.
When miners can’t cover costs, they sell bitcoin to fund operations. That selling adds supply pressure to a market already dealing with 43% of total supply sitting at a loss, whales distributing into rallies, and leveraged positioning dominating price action. Mining economics aren’t just a sector story. They’re a market structure story.
The publicly traded miners have been adapting by diversifying into AI and high-performance computing, which offer more predictable revenue than mining bitcoin at a loss. Marathon Digital, Cipher Mining, and others have been building out data center capacity alongside their mining operations.
The next difficulty adjustment is projected for early April and is expected to decline further according to CoinWarz data. If bitcoin stays below $88,000, and there’s no sign of a return to that level in the near term, the miner exodus continues and difficulty keeps falling.
The network self-corrects by design, making it cheaper to mine as participants leave. But the period between when costs exceed revenue and when difficulty adjusts low enough to restore profitability is where the damage happens, both to miners and to the spot market absorbing their forced selling.
TLDR:
- Founders Fund is set to lead Halter’s new round, valuing the cattle AI startup at $2 billion.
- Halter’s solar-powered collars move and monitor cattle remotely using an algorithm called Cowgorithm.
- US ranchers saved $220 million in fencing costs using Halter’s 11,000-mile virtual fence network.
- Halter charges $5 to $8 per animal monthly, creating recurring revenue that scales with herd size.
Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund is set to lead a new funding round for Halter, an AI-powered cattle collar startup. The round would value the Auckland-based company at more than $2 billion before new money is counted.
Halter makes solar-powered GPS collars that let farmers herd and monitor cattle remotely through a smartphone app. The deal is heavily oversubscribed and final terms may still change.
Founders Fund Places a Major Bet on AI-Driven Farming
Founders Fund’s decision to back Halter ranks among the firm’s most notable agtech moves. Peter Thiel built it into one of Silicon Valley’s most powerful venture capital firms.
Its entry into agricultural technology through Halter signals a shift in where major capital is now heading.
The round values Halter at $2 billion before new money is counted. That doubles its $1 billion valuation reached in June, when BOND led a $100 million raise. Reaching that mark in under one year is rare in any technology sector.
Halter and Founders Fund both declined to comment. Sources familiar with the matter asked not to be identified as talks remain private.
The deal is heavily oversubscribed, meaning demand exceeded what Halter originally sought. The final round size remains undetermined.
Founders Fund’s entry comes as the agtech sector recovers from a prolonged slump. Many agricultural technology companies declared bankruptcy in recent years as adoption lagged.
Halter has been a consistent exception, growing steadily while others failed. That track record drew Founders Fund’s attention.
One widely shared post captured the product’s appeal simply: “A farmer opens an app, taps a button, and 600,000 cows across three countries start walking toward the milking station on their own.” For Thiel’s firm, it reflects a belief that AI in farming can deliver outsized returns.
What Founders Fund Is Betting On Inside Halter’s Technology
Halter’s product is a solar-powered GPS collar worn by cattle. Farmers manage herds through an app sending vibration and audio cues to each collar.
A single tap moves a herd to a milking station with no dogs, fences, or labor needed. The company trademarked this system as the “Cowgorithm.”
Each collar tracks digestion, fertility cycles, and health patterns around the clock. Machine learning models trained on hundreds of thousands of animals power these features.
US ranchers have mapped over 11,000 miles of virtual fencing, saving an estimated $220 million in physical fencing costs.
Halter charges farmers between $5 and $8 per animal per month. As more cattle are collared, revenue compounds and customer retention deepens.
This mirrors the subscription frameworks that firms like Founders Fund know well. Recurring revenue tied to a growing animal base makes for a compelling investment profile.
Halter was founded by Craig Piggott, a former rocket engineer at Rocket Lab. “The goal was to make pasture farming more sustainable and productive using technology,” he told Bloomberg in 2024. His engineering background shaped both the collar hardware and the algorithm driving it.
The company is based in Auckland and has opened a Colorado office to support US expansion. That move reflects growing demand from American ranchers adopting precision farming tools.
Founders Fund is now betting that Piggott’s vision for agriculture is as transformative as anything the firm has previously backed.
Bitcoin has given back last week’s gains in a single weekend.
The largest cryptocurrency slid to $69,192 on Sunday morning, down 2.2% over the past 24 hours and 3.1% on the week, after U.S. president Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran late Saturday demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on the country’s power plants.
Trump said he would “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants, beginning with the largest, if the strait wasn’t opened to commercial shipping.
The threat marks a dramatic escalation from Friday, when Trump said he was thinking about “winding down” the military operation. Going from winding down to threatening civilian infrastructure in 24 hours whipsawed a market that had spent the previous week building confidence around de-escalation.
The liquidation data shows how one-sided the positioning was heading into the weekend. CoinGlass data shows $299 million in total liquidations over the past 24 hours across 84,239 traders, with long liquidations accounting for $254 million, roughly 85% of the total.
Bitcoin longs took $122 million in damage. Ether longs lost $95.7 million. The largest single liquidation was a $10 million BTC-USDT swap on OKX. The lopsided ratio confirms the market was leaning heavily bullish after eight consecutive days of gains heading into the weekend, leaving it vulnerable to exactly this kind of headline shock.
Major tokens fell in lockstep, meanwhile. Ether dropped 1.8% to $2,114, XRP lost 2.5% to $1.41, BNB slid 1.4% to $633, solana fell 2.1% to $88.55, and dogecoin lost 2.7% to $0.092. The only majors green on the week were ether at 0.8% and solana at 0.7%. Everything else is red over seven days.
The 48-hour window means the deadline arrives Monday evening. If Iran doesn’t comply, and there’s no indication it will, the market faces the prospect of strikes on power infrastructure, which would be the first direct targeting of civilian energy systems in the conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to most commercial traffic, with roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas flows still disrupted.
Last week’s rally to $75,912 now looks like it was built on ceasefire speculation that evaporated over the weekend. The Fed held rates on Wednesday with a dovish lean that should have supported risk assets, but the persistent risk of war headlines has traders holding back from making outsized directional bets.
TLDR:
- Bitcoin put/call open interest ratio averaged 0.77, its highest reading since China banned mining in June 2021.
- Put premiums relative to BTC spot volume hit an all-time high of 4 basis points, tripling mid-2022 levels.
- Historical data shows D9 skew decile has produced average 90-day BTC returns of +13.2%, the strongest of all deciles.
- Aggregate miner BTC balances sit at 684,000 BTC, with miners selling nearly all newly issued supply over the past year.
Bitcoin markets entered a consolidation phase following a sharp price drawdown in early 2026. VanEck’s mid-March Bitcoin ChainCheck report reveals deeply defensive positioning across derivatives markets.
The put/call open interest ratio reached its highest level since June 2021. Realized volatility dropped from 80 to 50, while futures funding rates fell to 2.7%. Onchain activity declined broadly as miner revenues came under pressure.
Bitcoin Options Positioning Reflects Elevated Demand for Downside Protection
Bitcoin options markets are showing an unusual level of caution among investors. The put/call open interest ratio peaked at 0.84 and averaged 0.77 over the past month.
This places the metric in the 91st percentile of all observations recorded since mid-2019. The last time the ratio reached these levels was June 2021, when China banned Bitcoin mining.
Total put premiums over the past 30 days reached approximately $685 million. That figure represents a 24% decline month-over-month, yet it still exceeds 77% of monthly readings since early 2025.
Relative to spot volume, put premiums hit an all-time high of roughly 4 basis points. This is about three times the levels seen after the Terra/Luna collapse in mid-2022.
Meanwhile, call option premiums fell roughly 12% to around $562 million. This decline further confirms a broad shift toward protective positioning in the market.
Total options open interest still rose 3% month-over-month to $33.4 billion. Futures leverage, however, remained subdued throughout the period.
VanEck’s report also examined the put/call premiums paid ratio, which reached 2.0 for the 30-day period ending March 3, 2026. Implied volatility on puts averaged around 66, sitting approximately 16 points above realized volatility.
Historically, skew readings at this decile have preceded average 90-day Bitcoin returns of +13.2%. Average 360-day returns from similar readings came in at +133.2%.
Onchain Activity and Miner Economics Show Broad Pressure
Onchain network activity declined across nearly every major metric over the past month. Transfer volume fell 31%, while total daily fees dropped 27%.
Daily active addresses declined 5%, and mean transaction fees fell by 40%. Transaction count was the only category that posted a modest increase.
A growing share of Bitcoin trading now occurs through ETPs, derivatives, and centralized exchanges. As a result, traditional onchain metrics may no longer capture total market activity accurately.
This shift makes it harder to use network data alone as a sentiment indicator. The trend reflects Bitcoin’s increasing financialization across institutional markets.
On the miner side, total revenues declined 11% over the past month. Mining equities fell roughly 7%, pointing to weaker profitability across the sector.
Miner outflows to exchanges rose only 1% in Bitcoin terms. Most operators appear to be managing reserves carefully rather than liquidating holdings.
Aggregate miner balances currently sit at approximately 684,000 BTC, down only 0.5% year-over-year. Over the same period, roughly 164,000 new BTC were mined and effectively sold.
Long-term holder transfer volume declined across every age cohort during the period. Active long-term Bitcoin supply also edged down from 31% to 30%.
A stablecoin tied to the crypto project Resolv Labs has lost its peg to the US dollar after an attacker was able to exploit the token’s contract to create millions of tokens for themselves.
Resolv Labs posted to X on Sunday that it had experienced an exploit that allowed an attacker to mint 50 million unbacked Resolv USR (USR). “The team has currently paused all the protocol functions to prevent further malicious actions and is actively working on recovery,” it added.
The X account “yieldsandmore” had posted to the platform earlier on Sunday that USR had crashed after on-chain data showed an attacker was able to mint 50 million USR by depositing $100,000 worth of the stablecoin USDC (USDC).
The attacker was also able to mint an additional 30 million USR tokens, according to the crypto security company PeckShield.
The crypto fund D2 Finance said that the minting function on USR’s contract was somehow broken. “Either the oracle was gamed, the off-chain signer was compromised, or the amount validation between request and completion is simply missing,” it added.
The exploit comes after crypto-related hacks declined sharply in February, with $49 million lost to exploits over the month, compared to $385 million in January, with attackers increasingly preferring phishing scams over protocol exploits.
Attacker cashing out “at full speed” depegs USR
D2 Finance said the attacker quickly moved the 50 million USR they minted to multiple crypto protocols, swapping the tokens for the stablecoins USDC and USDt (USDT) before “aggressively” converting them to Ether (ETH).
“The attacker’s exit playbook is textbook DeFi hack cashout running at full speed,” it said.
D2 Finance added that USR was selling as low as 50 cents on some trades as liquidity and slippage worsened across protocols, with “multiple failed transactions visible on-chain showing the urgency.”
The firm estimated that the attacker was able to extract around $25 million from the attack amid USR’s depeg.
Related: Google Threat Intel flags ‘Ghostblade’ crypto-stealing malware
USR is currently trading at around 87 cents, around 13% off from the $1 peg the token aims to maintain, according to CoinGecko.
The token had crashed to a low of 2.5 cents on a USR/USDC pool on the protocol Curve Finance, USR’s most liquid pool with a 24-hour volume of $3.6 million, per DEX Screener.
USR hit its bottom on Curve at 2:38 am UTC on Sunday, just 17 minutes after the attacker minted $50 million worth of the token. The pool has since recovered to trade at 84.5 cents.
Magazine: Meet the onchain crypto detectives fighting crime better than the cops
A Nevada judge has halted Kalshi from operating in the state for now, ruling that the company’s prediction-market contracts could violate Nevada gambling laws by serving as unlicensed sports pools. The temporary restraining order (TRO) lasts 14 days and follows a Nevada Gaming Control Board action aimed at blocking Kalshi’s activity while the case unfolds.
In issuing the TRO, Carson City District Court Judge Jason Woodbury aligned with the state regulator’s position that Kalshi’s sports, election and entertainment event contracts may require a state license. Nevada Gaming Control Board Chair Mike Dreitzer said the board’s duty is to protect the public when prediction markets “facilitate unlicensed gambling,” a point he emphasized when speaking to Reuters about the ruling.
The decision arrives the same week that a federal appeals court denied Kalshi’s emergency bid to stay a parallel federal court proceeding, effectively allowing Nevada regulators to proceed with their actions in state court. Kalshi has argued that its contracts fall under the exclusive purview of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a stance that has been contested in multiple state forums.
Key takeaways
- The court’s TRO blocks Kalshi from offering sports, election and entertainment-related event contracts in Nevada for 14 days, pending a preliminary injunction hearing.
- Judge Woodbury found the early record suggests such contracts could be classified as a “sports pool” under Nevada law, a category Kalshi has not been licensed to operate.
- The panel signaled skepticism toward Kalshi’s federal preemption argument, indicating that, at this stage, the balance of authority weighs against preemption in this context.
- A preliminary injunction hearing is set for April 3 to determine whether Kalshi can continue operating in Nevada while the broader dispute proceeds.
Nevada’s view and Kalshi’s legal posture
The Nevada Gaming Control Board filed suit last month, contending that Kalshi needed a state license to offer its contract-based prediction markets for sports and related events. The board’s position rests on the premise that such offerings amount to gambling activities that fall within Nevada’s licensing framework. Kalshi has argued that its products are regulated by the federal CFTC, and that federal preemption should bar state-level licensing claims in this arena.
Judge Woodbury’s ruling frames the question as a nuanced, evolving area of law. In his order, he noted that, at the moment, state and federal authorities have not reached a settled consensus on how prediction markets should be treated under preemption doctrine. He concluded that, for now, the balance of legal authority does not favor Kalshi’s preemption argument in the Nevada context.
The court’s decision places Kalshi in a tense position in a state where regulators have long maintained strict oversight of gambling-like activities. The TRO does not resolve the larger question of whether Kalshi can operate in Nevada at all; it merely freezes activity while the injunction request is litigated.
Kalshi has pursued its own legal strategy in other jurisdictions, including filings designed to preemptively challenge potential enforcement actions by various states. Separately, Kalshi’s opponents in other states have taken measures to restrict the company’s offerings; for example, a Massachusetts judge earlier banned Kalshi from offering sports event contracts, a ruling that was later lifted on appeal. The Arizona attorney general has also pursued criminal charges against Kalshi, accusing the platform of running an illegal gambling operation—a charge Kalshi’s leadership has rejected as an overstep.
As the Nevada matter advances, observers are watching how the two tracks—state licensing enforcement and federal preemption theory—will influence Kalshi’s expansion plans and the broader regulatory risk facing prediction markets in the United States.
Earlier coverage tied Kalshi’s case to similar disputes in other states and highlighted how regulators have increasingly scrutinized prediction-market operators. The appellate decision denying Kalshi’s emergency request in the federal case underscores the uphill path for operators seeking shelter behind federal preemption in a patchwork state-by-state regime.
For investors and builders in the prediction-market space, the Nevada decision reinforces the importance of understanding licensing regimes at the state level and remaining mindful of evolving federal-state tensions in the sector. The outcome of the April 3 hearing will be a key signal of where the regulatory balance currently stands and what it could mean for Kalshi’s ability to operate nationwide.
What comes next in the Kalshi saga
With the temporary pause in place, Kalshi must await the court’s ruling on the preliminary injunction. If the injunction is granted, Kalshi would face a longer halt while the broader dispute over licensing, preemption and regulatory authority is resolved. If denied, Kalshi could resume activity in Nevada under any court-specified conditions or timelines.
Beyond Nevada, the case adds to a growing calendar of state-level actions and civil actions that have tested the legality of prediction markets in the United States. The Massachusetts and Arizona developments, in particular, illustrate the divergent approaches states are taking toward enforcement and criminal risk, underscoring a landscape where operators must navigate a mosaic of rules rather than a single national framework.
As regulators weigh calls for clearer guidelines, the next months will be critical for Kalshi’s strategic planning and for market participants who rely on prediction markets for hedging and pricing diverse outcomes. The April 3 hearing will be a focal point for clarifying whether Kalshi can continue to offer its existing suites of contracts in Nevada or whether broader licensing changes will be required to operate there in the near term.
In the meantime, traders and developers should monitor not only the Nevada case but also the evolving federal-state dialogue on preemption, licensing, and the precise contours of what constitutes gambling in prediction markets. The outcome could shape the pace at which prediction markets scale in the United States and influence how regulators balance consumer protection with innovation.
Sources cited in coverage include Reuters’ reporting on the Nevada TRO and Kalshi’s ongoing legal battles, as well as prior reporting on Kalshi’s status in other states.
Reuters reporting on the Nevada TRO and regulator comments and coverage of the appeals court denial provide context for the broader regulatory arc Kalshi faces as it eyes expansion beyond Nevada.
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