XRP’s 2026 price surge faces its first test as ETF flows cool and profit-taking emerges

• XRP’s rally paused as spot ETF inflows slowed and early profit-taking emerged.
• Technical resistance triggered selling, but long-term holders stayed largely inactive.
• Price outlook hinges on holding key support while ETF demand stabilises.

XRP entered 2026 with powerful momentum after ending last year on a strong institutional narrative.

The token quickly outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) in early January, drawing renewed attention from traders, funds, and mainstream media.

Spot XRP ETFs were a major driver of this enthusiasm, as consistent inflows signalled sustained institutional demand.

Low exchange balances reinforced the bullish case by suggesting limited immediate sell-side supply.

This combination helped propel XRP sharply higher in the first days of the year.

However, the rally is now facing its first meaningful stress test.

Price action has turned volatile as ETF flows cool and short-term traders begin to lock in gains.

Although the shift does not mark a trend reversal yet, it does highlight growing fragility beneath the bullish narrative.

XRP ETF momentum slows as early exuberance fades

Spot XRP ETFs recorded their first net outflows since launch on January 7, breaking a long streak of daily inflows.

The pullback was concentrated in one large product, while other issuers still saw modest inflows.

Even so, the headline reversal weighed heavily on sentiment.

ETF flows have been central to XRP’s 2026 rally, making any slowdown psychologically significant.

The outflows coincided with broader weakness across crypto ETFs, including Bitcoin and Ether products.

This suggests the move was driven more by risk reduction than by XRP-specific panic.

Cumulative ETF inflows remain firmly positive, keeping the longer-term institutional thesis intact.

Still, the market is now adjusting to the idea that ETF demand may not rise in a straight line.

As flows normalise, prices become more sensitive to technical levels and short-term positioning.

XRP price forecast

XRP’s short-term outlook hinges on how it behaves around critical support zones.

Holding above the $2.00–$2.05 region would signal that the pullback is corrective rather than structural.

A sustained break below that area could open the door to deeper retracements toward the high-$1.80s.

On the upside, bulls need a decisive daily close above the $2.25–$2.35 range to regain control.

Such a move would indicate that selling pressure has been absorbed.

If momentum rebuilds, a recovery toward $2.60 and $2.80 becomes technically plausible.

Medium-term prospects remain tied to ETF flow trends and broader crypto sentiment.

As long as cumulative ETF assets stay elevated and exchange supply remains constrained, downside risk may be limited.

However, the explosive pace seen at the start of 2026 is unlikely to repeat immediately.

Instead, XRP appears poised for consolidation as the market digests gains.

If demand reaccelerates later in the year, this cooling phase could form the base for another advance.