Japan, the United Kingdom, and Italy are in talks about Saudi Arabia’s participation in the joint development of their new sixth-generation fighter jet.
On January 27, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said Italy is in favor of Saudi Arabia joining the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), according to the Italian Prime Minister’s Office. Italy, Japan, and the U.K. launched the GCAP in December 2022 with a goal of deploying the next-generation fighter by 2035.
Meloni became the first of the three nations’ leaders to express official support for Riyadh’s participation in the GCAP.
“Clearly this… will not be immediate because in the meantime we must conclude all the work as a three-way with the governments of Great Britain and Japan,” Meloni said, speaking to journalists after meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Al-Ula, Saudi Arabia.
The United Kingdom, which has supplied Saudi Arabia with Tornado and Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets among other defense equipment, is also in favor of Saudi Arabia’s entry. With development costs expected to reach tens of billions of dollars, Saudi Arabia’s wealth may be a key factor.
On the contrary, Japan has been much more cautious for a couple of different reasons.
First, the joint statement on the GCAP issued by then three prime ministers of Japan, Italy, and the U.K. in December 2022 stated, “Our three nations have longstanding, close relationships based on the shared values of freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law,” emphasizing that it is a project between like-minded countries of Western-style liberal democracy.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia, which is an authoritarian state, has been criticized for its human rights issues. For example, a U.S. intelligence report concluded that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman approved the murder of exiled Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. A special U.N. investigator also blamed the prince for approving the murder of Khashoggi.
Saudi Arabia ranked 150th out of 167 countries, which was lower than Russia’s 144th and China’s 148th, in the 2023 Democracy Index published by the Economist Intelligence Unit, the research division of the British magazine The Economist,
Second, Saudi Arabia was involved in military intervention in the civil war in neighboring Yemen until three years ago. Eurofighter fighter jets, jointly developed by four countries including the United Kingdom and Italy, were used in the airstrikes on Yemen.
Japan’s basic policy in the post-World War II period has been not to escalate international conflicts. If the next-generation fighter jets were to be used in a conflict, it could undermine Japan’s credibility as a peaceful nation. Tokyo has maintained good relations with all Middle Eastern countries since the oil crises of the 1970s.
Third, if more countries join the GCAP, the number of aircraft produced will increase, and economies of scale will surely reduce the cost per aircraft. However, this could also mean more work and costs involved in making adjustments. In addition, it will be difficult for Saudi Arabia to contribute technically to the aircraft’s development.
Fourth, Saudi Arabia and China have forged a closer relationship in recent years. The two nations signed a strategic partnership agreement in December 2022 during a visit by the Chinese leader Xi Jinping to the kingdom, underlining the growing ties between Beijing and a longstanding U.S. ally that is seeking greater self-reliance.
It is true that the United States is Saudi Arabia’s largest military supplier, but it also trades arms with China and Russia. If Riyadh were to join the Italy-Japan-U.K. joint development framework, there are concerns that confidential security information could be leaked.
Asked about Saudi Arabia’s potential participation, Japanese Defense Minister Nakatani Gen said at a press conference on December 3, 2024:
As stated in the Joint Leaders’ Statement when GCAP was announced, GCAP has been designed with cooperation between Japan, the U.K. and Italy, our allies and partner countries, in mind, and we are not at the stage where we can make any assumptions about the participation of third countries.
Another interesting development for Japan is the visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the United States, where he will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on February 4. The normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia will be on the agenda, which could lead to calls for Tokyo to strengthen its ties with Saudi Arabia.
Nikkei Asia reported on November 29 that Saudi Arabia would be expected to join the GCAP as a “partner,” rather than as equal party to the treaty-bound trio.
