Politics
Nigel Farage: The 10 Cabinet Ministers at risk of being toppled by Reform’s turquoise tsunami
Ten top Cabinet Ministers are at risk of losing their seats to Reform UK, a damning new opinion poll has revealed.
Reform UK secured its highest ever rating in Ipsos’s survey, with 34 per cent support giving Nigel Farage serious hopes of becoming Britain’s next Prime Minister.
Meanwhile, Labour’s slump since the 2024 General Election left Sir Keir Starmer with just 25 per cent support, chasing down a nine-point deficit.
Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives received just 15 per cent – the lowest share Ipsos has ever recorded from the Tories.
The Liberal Democrats suffered a slight dip since last year on 11 per cent, with the Green Party also taking a hit to fall down to six per cent.
Electoral Calculus has revealed that such a scenario would put at least 10 Cabinet Ministers at risk of losing their seats.
Angela Rayner
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and her Electoral Calculus prediction
PA/ELECTORAL CALCULUS
Position: Deputy Prime Minister
Seat: MP for Ashton-under-Lyne since 2015
Majority: 6,791 votes over Reform UK
Rachel Reeves
Rachel Reeves and an inset of her Electoral Calculus prediction
PA/ELECTORAL CALCULUS
Position: Chancellor of the Exchequer
Seat: Leeds West & Pudsey (formerly Leeds West) since 2010
Majority: 12,392 votes over the Tories (12,695 over Reform UK)
Pat McFadden
Pat McFadden with an inset of Electoral Calculus’s prediction
PA/ELECTORAL CALCULUS
Position: Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster
Seat: Wolverhampton South East since 2005
Majority: 9,188 votes over Reform UK
John Healey
John Healey with an inset of Electoral Calculus’s prediction
PA/ELECTORAL CALUCLUS
Position: Defence Secretary
Seat: Rawmarsh & Conisbrough (formerly Wentworth & Dearne and Wentworth) since 1997
Majority: 6,908 votes over Reform UK
Bridget Phillipson
Bridget Phillipson with an inset of Electoral Calculus’s seat projection
PA/ELECTORAL CALCULUS
Position: Education Secretary
Seat: Houghton & Sunderland South since 2010
Majority: 7,168 votes over Reform UK
Ed Miliband
Ed Miliband with an inset of Electoral Calculus’s prediction
PA/ELECTORAL CALCULUS
Position: Net Zero Secretary
Seat: Doncaster North since 2005
Majority: 9,126 votes over the Tories (Reform UK did not stand in 2024)
Jonathan Reynolds
Jonathan Reynolds and an inset of his seat projection
PA/ELECTORAL CALCULUS
Position: Business Secretary
Seat: Stalybridge & Hyde since 2010
Majority: 8,539 votes over Reform UK
Liz Kendall
Liz Kendall with an inset of her Electoral Calculus projection
PA/ELECTORAL CALCULUS
Position: Work & Pensions Secretary
Seat: Leicester West since 2010
Majority: 8,777 votes over the Tories (10,132 over Reform UK)
Lisa Nandy
Lisa Nandy with an inset of her Electoral Calculus result
PA/ELECTORAL CALCULUS
Position: Culture Secretary
Seat: Wigan since 2010
Majority: 9,549 votes over Reform UK
Jo Stevens
Jo Stevens with an inset of her seat projection
PA/ELECTORAL CALCULUS
Position: Welsh Secretary
Seat: Cardiff East (formerly Cardiff Central) since 2015
Majority: 9,097 votes over the Liberal Democrats (10,853 over Reform UK)
