The latest shock turn as the Libs cling to hope – again – in Bradfield

The NSW Liberals have been buoyed by the distribution of preferences in the nail-biter count for Bradfield, with Gisele Kapterian six votes ahead of her rival, the teal independent Nicolette Boele.

Following a week of preference distributions after Boele was declared the preliminary winner of the seat last week, Kapterian is back in front after the count at one stage was a dead heat with not a vote separating the pair.

However by Friday evening, Kapterian had overtaken Boele by just six votes. That will not be anywhere near enough to prevent a full recount but will give the Liberals renewed hope that they may be able to hold the once-safe blue-ribbon seat.

If the final margin is fewer than 100 votes after the full distribution of preferences, a recount is conducted in line with Australian Electoral Commission policy.

The last – and only – time a recount changed the result in an election was for the Victorian seat of McEwen in 2007 when, after the first count, Labor Rob Mitchell won by six votes. Following the recount, Liberal Fran Bailey won by 12. This ended up in the Court of Disputed Returns and the eventual result was a Bailey win by 31 ballots.

Boele had edged in front last week when full voting concluded on a wafer-thin lead of 41 votes, but she had slipped backwards by late Friday.

It has been a rollercoaster ride for the two candidates. The ABC and Nine called the seat for Boele on election night, only for Kapterian to leap ahead by some 200 votes as the count continued.

So confident were the Liberals, Kapterian was told to travel to Canberra to vote in the party’s leadership ballot last Tuesday, which usually only includes elected MPs. Two retiring senators also voted in the ballot in which Sussan Ley become the first federal female Liberal leader.

Boele once again took the lead, causing senior Liberals to panic that they had jumped the gun and sent Kapterian to Canberra too early.