The teacher sent sexually explicit texts and photos to an adult while children were in the building

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A primary school teacher who transmitted sexually explicit messages, voice recordings and images whilst in the toilets during school hours has been barred from the profession.

Ben Walker had begun his employment at Edisford Primary School in Clitheroe in September 2016. He stepped down in November 2023 following his admission of sending sexually explicit material to a woman whilst on school grounds on July 13, 2022.

A Teaching Regulation Agency (TRA) panel has prohibited Mr Walker from teaching. He is unable to seek removal of the prohibition for two years, reports Lancs Live.

In his determination, Stuart Blomfield from the TRA stated: “Mr Walker admitted to having sent sexualised voice notes and images of him shirtless and having exposed himself to Person A, who was an adult not connected with the School. The panel has been provided with copies of the messages which indicate that the conversation was mutual between Mr Walker and Person A.

“The photographs of Mr Walker with his shirt off, and one with him appearing to expose himself (although this is redacted in the panel’s bundle of documents), are taken in the same room – which appears to be the toilets.”

“The panel is therefore satisfied that those photographs were taken at School. Mr Walker has admitted that those photographs were taken in the male toilets at School, although for clarity, the panel notes that Mr Walker asserted these were the male staff toilets.

“For the avoidance of doubt the panel is satisfied that no children saw Mr Walker take the photos in question, nor is there any suggestion that any child heard Mr Walker making or receiving the sexualised voice notes. Notwithstanding this, the panel is of the view that children were still on School premises and were therefore in the vicinity of Mr Walker when he was engaging in the alleged activity.

“The panel accepts that the risk of children witnessing his activities was probably low, but it cannot rule out there was at least some risk of exposing a child to harm by carrying out the activities on School premises. The panel considered whether the messages were sexually motivated.

“The nature of some of the messages that the panel has had sight of are particularly graphic and are unquestionably of a sexual nature. They indicate the participants’ desire to engage in a sexual relationship and the panel is therefore satisfied that Mr Walker was sexually motivated in sending the messages.

Although the images appear to have been taken by Mr. Walker in the main part of the bathroom, rather than in a locked cubicle. The images show a door and two sinks, behind and next to where Mr Walker is standing(respectively). The [REDACTED] confirmed that the image appeared to have been taken by Mr Walker in the main part of the bathroom, and that there was no lock on the door into the bathroom.

“The panel’s concern is that if a child had inadvertently entered the staff toilet at the time, the harm to that child could have potentially been significant.”

The prohibition order bars Mr Walker from teaching indefinitely, meaning he is unable to work in any school, sixth form college, relevant youth accommodation or children’s home in England. An application to have the prohibition order lifted cannot be made until March 2028.

The Eden Arms, on Staindrop Road in West Auckland will reopen at 2pm on Friday (March 20), promising a “fantastic afternoon and evening filled with a great atmosphere, good company, and plenty of entertainment”.

Writing on Facebook, the pub said: “Come along and help us celebrate as we officially open our doors.

“Bring your friends and family and be among the first to experience everything The Eden Arms has to offer. Let’s make it a day to remember.”

There will be live entertainment from 7pm, with disco and karaoke to follow. Customers are encouraged to bring their “singing voices and dancing shoes”.

A free shot is also promised for every singer.

Earlier this month, the pub announced it would be reopening soon, promising “exciting upgrades”.

The pub previously said: “After lots of hard work redecorating, refreshing and making some exciting upgrades, we’re getting ready to reopen very soon.

“We can’t wait to welcome everyone back and meet you all.”

The pub will open from 12pm seven days a week and will have seven large TV screens and a separate space for a dart board complete with ring light, backboard and counter.

The new landlords have also said they will “work hard” to get the beer garden ready for the Fifa World Cup.

They said they’ll be large TV’s, a stage, outside bar and play area.

The University of Cambridge has said the hub will ‘connect entrepreneurs, investors, corporates, and researchers’

A large building on a busy Cambridge road is set to be transformed into an ‘innovation hub’. Social media users recently questioned what is happening with the building at 1-3 Hills Road.

The building was previously used by Cambridge Assessment and is owned by the University of Cambridge. It is set to become into an ‘innovation hub’ as part of a £500 million funding package for the Oxford-Cambridge corridor.

The University of Cambridge said: “Designed to drive UK growth, the Hub will connect entrepreneurs, investors, corporates, and researchers on a 2.7-acre site in Hills Road, in the centre of Cambridge, as the UK’s answer to Boston’s Lab Central and Paris’s Station F. The new facility will support science start ups to grow and compete on the world stage.”

It is unclear how or whether the building will be changed for this purpose. There is no clear timeline yet on the innovation hub.

In an address at the beginning of the year, University of Cambridge vice chancellor, Professor Deborah Prentice said: “In the centre of Cambridge, we are building an Innovation Hub that will bring together startups, scaling companies, corporate investment teams, venture capitalists, entrepreneurs, and our world-class research community, all in a facility located at 1-3 Hills Road, just a short walk from the train station.”

Science Minister and Oxford-Cambridge Innovation Champion, Lord Vallance, said when the £500 million funding was announced in October: “Cambridge is one of the world’s most fertile grounds for innovation to take root, and blossom into opportunities for investment, job creation, and progress in fields ranging from life sciences to deep tech.

“As impressive as these figures are, there is still more potential here for us to unleash. This is precisely why we are backing the Cambridge Innovation Hub, as part of our programme of work across Government to boost the entire Oxford to Cambridge Growth Corridor, and fulfil its promise as an economic engine the whole nation benefits from.”

The man accused of murdering pregnant Lurgan woman Natalie McNally “did believe and does believe always and forever” that her ex-boyfriend killed her, a court heard today.

The 32-year old was 15 weeks pregnant when she was beaten, strangled and stabbed in her Silverwood Green home on the evening of Sunday December 18, 2022.

The father of her unborn child, 36-year old Stephen McCullagh from Woodland Gardens in Lisburn, has been accused of and has denied her murder.

Now in its fourth week, evidence in the murder trial at Belfast Crown Court has now concluded and today McCullagh’s barrister John Kearney KC addressed the jury with the defence’s closing speech.

Mr Kearney told the six men and women it was their role to “step back” and “bring surgeon-like objective scrutiny” to the case and to the evidence they have heard.

The barrister spoke of several pieces of the Crown’s “jigsaw” not fitting together and said “there are multiple pieces” that pointed away from McCullagh.

Instead, he said told the jurors that when they “scratch the surface” they will find “nagging, reasonable doubt.”

Reminding the jury that at this point McCullagh was “an innocent man unless or until you find otherwise”, Mr Kearney said the real issue was the identity of the killer.

He told the jury: “If you think he (McCullagh) probably is, that is not enough. If you are almost sure, that is not enough.

“If you are left with a reasonable doubt that someone else … could have been the killer, your job is to acquit. Not because I say so, but because these are the rules.”

Describing the evidence against his client as circumstantial, Mr Kearney said: “We suggest there are holes in this case, there are gaps in this case, there is reasonable doubt in this case, there are missing pieces of the jigsaw in this case.”

This, he said, included “missing CCTV evidence” regarding a motion sensor camera on Woodland Gardens which didn’t pick up anyone leaving McCullagh’s home and passing the camera on the evening of the murder.

This, the defence say, is because “he wasn’t there” which he described as a “big problem for the prosecution.”

Mr Kearney also said there was “no identification evidence in this case”, nor any clothing comparison or gait analysis.

Regarding the hat worn by the suspect who got into a taxi in Lurgan after the murder, Mr Kearney said the Crown had asked the jury to compare this with a similar hat worn by McCullagh in pictures on his social media.

Suggesting “they are different hats”, Mr Kearney spoke of contrasting stitching and ear flaps. He also mentioned the suspect caught on CCTV wearing a “big black coat” and “distinctive trainers”.

Mr Kearney said: “The prosecution have not been able to provide any evidence indicating that this defendant on any occasion appeared on CCTV or social media or in any way in a big black coat. The house was searched, there was no coat.”

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Other areas which raised doubt, according to the defence, was a lack of evidence about whether or not McCullagh accessed Ms McNally’s phone.

Turning back to reasonable doubt, Mr Kearney spoke of the “elephant in the room” – Ms McNally’s ex-boyfriend.

Describing this man, who can’t be named due to a reporting restriction, as “walking, talking reasonable doubt”, Mr Kearney reminded the jury he was “interviewed as a suspect in this case.”

The barrister said it was McCullagh’s case that he didn’t kill Ms McNally, adding his client “did believe and does believe always and forever that the killer” was Ms McNally’s ex-boyfriend.

Mr Kearney said that when McCullagh was arrested on suspicion of murdering Ms McNally there “wasn’t a mark on the hands of the defendant.” This, he said, compared to the ex-boyfriend whose hands were swollen when he was arrested.

He told the jury: “We ask you to think about that very very carefully when you decide whether you can be sure this defendant and not (the ex-boyfriend) killed Ms McNally.”

The barrister also spoke of a 498-page document which contained all the WhatsApp messages exchanged between his client and Ms McNally during the course of their 133-day relationship.

Mr Kearney pointed out there was “not a word of violence or fallouts or misogyny” in the exchange.

Instead, he suggested the messages were of the “normal banality of life” including pets and work, all of which indicated “this was a real, loving relationship.”

He then asked the jury to compare the contents of these messages against the “disgraceful correspondence” from the ex-boyfriend.

Some of these messages, the barrister suggested, indicated he was a “hot-headed man who cannot take rejection.”

Mr Kearney also spoke of the ex-boyfriend doing a factory reset on his phone prior to his arrest in December 2022, lying to police about the last time he saw Ms McNally and being accused of domestic incidents by his former partner.

This former partner gave evidence at the trial and said Ms McNally’s ex-boyfriend didn’t commit the murder as he was with her in his flat all night.

In her evidence, she said that he fell asleep after drinking, that the World Cup final was on and that he didn’t leave the flat all night.

Mr Kearney asked the jury to “scrutinise the evidence to see whether they were telling the truth or telling a tale.”

He concluded the defence’s closing argument by telling the jurors that when they scrutinise the evidence they “could not, we suggest, extinguish reasonable doubt that this defendant killed Ms McNally as opposed to some other person.”

Following this, Mr Justice Kinney addressed the jury and said “what remains for you now is to hear from me”. He told the jurors to return to court on Friday morning when he will begin his charge, with an anticipation that they will begin deliberating next Monday morning.

At hearing.

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The inquiry found several areas where the Welsh Government’s response should’ve been different

The Welsh NHS came “close to collapse” during the pandemic, according to the Covid-19 inquiry. Inquiry chair Baroness Hallett said the healthcare system “teetered on the brink of total collapse” throughout the pandemic and “only just” coped with the pressure it was placed under.

She concluded a complete collapse of the entire system was only “narrowly avoided” because of the “extraordinary efforts of all those working in the healthcare systems”.

The latest 387-page report, which looks at the impact the pandemic had on the NHS in all parts of the UK, says Covid-19’s devastating impact on the NHS was “unsurprising” given the “parlous state” the service was in at the start of the crisis.

The report forms part of the UK Covid Inquiry which is made up of 10 different modules. This latest one, released on Thursday, examines healthcare systems in all parts of the UK. Stay informed on the latest health news by signing up to our newsletter here.

Shielding letters took too long and went to wrong addresses

One area which was examined in the report was shielding letters sent out to clinically extremely vulnerable people at the start of the pandemic. The inquiry found that in Wales this was a “significant and complex task” and the time it took to produce the letters therefore led to a delay of at least two weeks in the letters arriving.

It was concluded the Welsh Government’s pre-pandemic planning was inadequate making the planning and delivery of the shielding programme even more challenging.

The inquiry added: “Sir Frank Atherton, chief medical officer for Wales from August 2016 to January 2025, told the Inquiry that there had been a ‘huge effort to try to improve’ the data systems required to identify at-risk people rapidly but that they were still not in place in September 2024. He told the onquiry: ‘[W]e are behind the curve in Wales on digital records.’”

It also found the content of official communications regarding the shielding programme was affected by problems with data systems and record-keeping. This led to the Welsh Government sending 13,000 of the 91,000 shielding letters to the wrong addresses and children with Down’s syndrome mistakenly receiving letters.

Birthing partner policy should’ve changed earlier

Another issue which arose in the report was the Welsh Government’s stance on whether fathers and birthing partners should be subject to the same restrictions as ‘visitors’. The inquiry highlighted how Wales was the last UK nation to amend the policy for them, on May 9, 2022, and found this change was too slow to be implemented.

Eluned Morgan accepted that the Welsh Government “took too long to make those changes”.

Care was not escalated for those with ‘remote’ chances of recovery

The inquiry also found how some people in Wales were not escalated to the next level of care because, as a critical care doctor in Wales told the inquiry, there was not “enough space to ‘give people a go’ who had a very remote chance of getting better”.

Lack of PPE in Welsh healthcare settings

The report also found it was clear that healthcare workers did at points lack access to appropriate PPE and outlined examples from the UK. A consultant in Wales recalled: “At the start, despite knowing of the virus spread, no PPE was provided. Not even masks let alone thinking of level two PPE for aerosolgenerating procedures. This was when many of my colleagues and I became ill.”

Abandoned 111 calls

Due to the increased demand of people calling 111 more calls were being abandoned by callers before reaching the front of the queue. In Wales 43.3% of calls to the NHS 111 service were abandoned in March 2020. However the inquiry said a change in Welsh Government advice in April 2020 led to fewer abandoned calls when they encouraged the use of the NHS Direct Wales website.

‘Deeply distressing’ experiences of people dying alone

The report also detailed the “devastating impact” of restrictions which led to many dying alone. It found that although such restrictions “may be unavoidable” in a pandemic visits for dying patients should be suspended “for the shortest time possible”.

One case which was highlighted was that of Sam Smith-Higgins, part of Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice Cymru, who had to say goodbye to her father by text message. She said: “I received a call from the doctor who told us that he had deteriorated and that he was dying.

“To not be able to be with my father and to hear that news was completely devastating. He was with a nurse and so I was constrained to saying my farewell to my father by text message with the hope that it would be read out to him.

“It is truly difficult to put into words how painful it is to say farewell to a loved one by text message.”

Withdrawing medicine delivery ‘premature’ in Wales

Unlike other UK nations medicine delivery support in Wales was not funded and available throughout the second wave of the pandemic. Instead it was ended on August 16, 2020, and never reinstated.

The inquiry found it was clear this support, which helped clinically vulnerable people receive medications, would’ve been needed in Wales throughout the second wave and had therefore been withdrawn prematurely. It also detailed how community pharmacists had been key in ensuring vulnerable individuals could access their medications.

One community pharmacist in Wales, Jonathan Rees, told the inquiry: “My wife and I would walk around our village delivering on the weekend with our three young children to ensure everybody received what they needed.”

First Minister Eluned Morgan said in a written statement: “The pandemic placed significant pressures on health and care services in Wales and across the UK. We acknowledge the considerable impact this had on patients, staff, the wider workforce and families affected by Covid-19.

“The Welsh Government continues to engage with the inquiry in an open and constructive manner as we have done in relation to the first two reports.

“The inquiry requires a response to the module three report and recommendations within six months of publication.”

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Vice President JD Vance, who has long been considered a potential successor to President Donald Trump, could face political problems in 2028 as a result of the Iran war, according to a new report.

People close to Vance told The Washington Post that if the conflict with Iran lasts for months, it could pose a political problem for whoever secures the Republican presidential nomination in 2028. However, Vance still hasn’t decided whether he’ll run, the outlet’s sources also said.

The vice president has publicly voiced his support for Trump’s war with Iran. While Vance has previously criticized prolonged foreign involvement, he’s also pushed back on suggestions that his past comments indicate he’s not aligned with the president.

“I know what you’re trying to do,” Vance said Monday, when confronted about his previous statements on American interventionism.

“You’re trying to drive a wedge between members of the administration, between me and the president. What the president has said consistently, going back to 2015, and I agreed with him, is that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon,” he added.

Still, the president has said Vance was “maybe less enthusiastic” at the beginning of the conflict.

“We get along very well on this,” Trump told reporters last week. “He was, I would say, philosophically a little bit different than me. I think he was maybe less enthusiastic about going, but he was quite enthusiastic.”

“But I felt it was something we had to do. I didn’t feel we had a choice,” he continued. “If we didn’t do it, they would have done it to us.”

Vance also reportedly met with Joe Kent, the former director of the National Counterterrorism Center, who resigned over the war with Iran. The vice president urged him to “go quietly” and not make his resignation a “big thing,” a U.S. official told The Washington Post.

The Independent has contacted Vance’s office for comment.

This comes after Politico reported that Vance privately expressed skepticism about the U.S. attacking Iran before Trump made his final decision. Still, the Trump administration has maintained that the two men are aligned on the issue.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly previously told The Independent that “efforts to drive a wedge between President Trump and Vice President Vance are totally misguided.” Vance spokesperson Taylor Van Kirk told Politico the vice president is “a proud member of the President’s national security team” and “keeps his counsel to the President private.”

Others have also speculated about the conflict’s impact on the 2028 election, including Marjorie Taylor Greene, a former Republican lawmaker who resigned from her House seat late last year after a public falling-out with Trump.

When asked by CNN’s Pamela Brown if the Iran war could hurt the vice president’s chances of becoming Trump’s successor, the ex-lawmaker replied: “The longer it goes on, it definitely does hurt JD Vance.”

The new price increases will see some people paying £239.50

The UK Government has announced a price increase for passport applications from next month. New fee for passport applications will be implemented from April 8.

The exact amount the fee will rise is subject to approval by Parliament but a proposal from the UK Government sets out for the increase to as much as £239.50 for some.

Funds raised by application fees reduces the Home Office’s reliance on funding from general taxation and the government does not profit from the costs.

In 2025 a total of 99.7% of standard passport applications from the UK were processed within three weeks if they did not require further information. For money-saving tips, sign up to our Money newsletter here.

The proposals for the fee change are as follows:

• the fee for a standard online application made from within the UK will rise from £94.50 to £102 for adults and £61.50 to £66.50 for children
• postal applications will increase from £107 to £115.50 for adults and £74 to £80 for children
• the fee for a premium service (one-day) application made from within the UK will rise from £222 to £239.50
• the fee for a standard online application when applying from overseas for a UK passport will rise from £108 to £116.50 for adults and £70 to £75.50 for children
• overseas standard paper applications will increase from £120.50 to £130 for adults and £82.50 to £89 for children

The fees contribute to the cost of processing passport applications, consular support overseas including for lost or stolen passports, and the cost of processing British citizens at UK borders.

Sheriff John MacRitchie wrote about the dangers of relying upon the cutting edge software in a judgement issued on Thursday at Kirkcaldy Sheriff Court

A judge has warned AI users they could face contempt of court proceedings after the technology invented fake legislation and fictitious references in a case he heard.

Sheriff John MacRitchie wrote about the dangers of relying upon the cutting edge software in a judgement issued on Thursday at Kirkcaldy Sheriff Court. Sheriff MacRitchie told of how he presided in an action brought by landlords called Your Home Partners. The firm were seeking £5,000 rent arrears from two former tenants at one of their properties.

The judge writes of how when the case called at Kirkcaldy, Your Home Partners told the sheriff they were relying upon legislation called the Interest on Debts (Scotland) Act 1985. The company also told the court that they were relying upon decisions made by tribunals who had heard similar cases.

Officials in Kirkcaldy repeatedly told Your Home Partners that the sheriff court wasn’t the correct place to hear the case and it should raise an action at a first tier tribunal. The company was acting by itself and hadn’t instructed professional lawyers. However, the firm kept on relying on legal authority which resulted in Sheriff MacRitchie allowing the matter to be argued before him.

Sheriff MacRitchie said he was unable to find the legislation or the cases which Your Home Partners were using to support their legal arguments. Court staff contacted the tribunals concerned and were told the cases hadn’t existed. Your home Partners also later conceded the cases and legislation didn’t exist and it had used AI in preparing its case.

Sheriff MacRitchie wrote that he had to consider whether Your Home Partners had wasted court time and were therefore in contempt of court. In the judgement issued on Thursday, the judge made mention to an English case involving Haringey Law Centre and Haringey Council.

In what is thought to be the first time the matter has arisen in Scots law, Sheriff MacRitchie wrote about how AI use had the potential to clog up valuable court time. In recent years, Scots courts have been working through a back log of cases caused by the pandemic.

He wrote: “The lodging of false legal references has the potential to obstruct justice. Indeed, my understanding of the position was so clear that I would not have assigned a discussion in this matter had it not been maintained by the claimant that there existed these referenced cases said to support a view contrary to my understanding.

“Accordingly, I have given consideration as to whether I am required to commence contempt of court proceedings. There is no reason why that duty should not also apply to lay persons, as otherwise the management of cases in courts and therefore the course of justice could be significantly obstructed.”

In the Haringey case, lawyers for the law centre challenged the London borough over its alleged failure to provide its client with temporary accommodation. During these proceedings, its lawyer cited phantom case law five times. Suspicions were raised when the solicitor defending the council had to repeatedly query why they could not find any trace of the supposed authorities.

It resulted in a legal action for wasted legal costs and a court found the law centre and its lawyer, a pupil barrister, were negligent. The barrister denied using AI in that case but said she may have inadvertently done so while using Google or Safari in preparation for a separate case where she also cited phantom authorities. In that case she said she may have taken account of AI summaries without realising what they were.

In the judgement about the case, English judge Dame Victoria Sharp said there were “serious implications for the administration of justice and public confidence in the justice system if artificial intelligence is misused” and that lawyers misusing AI could face contempt of court proceedings and police investigation.

In the judgment published on Thursday, Sheriff MacRitchie decided not to hold Your Home Partners in contempt of court. The judge decided that the evidence showed that Your Home Partners actions didn’t “knowingly” attempt to “interfere with the administration of justice” by wasting court time.

He wrote: “However, there was a degree of recklessness in the claimant delaying verifying that the references produced by Artificial Intelligence were genuine, until only after the relative submissions were lodged. There is a fine line in this instance between whether the claimant and its individual partners, even as lay persons, have shown contempt for the court by not reasonably checking that such references were genuine before using them in this manner, or otherwise.”

The judgement tells of how Your Home Partners’ bid to recover the alleged rent arrears in the sheriff court was dismissed. Sheriff MacRitchie said the law states that the correct place to pursue the action is a specialist tribunal.

He wrote: “The claim is therefore dismissed as the sheriff court has neither jurisdiction nor competence to make the order sought. What this claim does highlight, is the dangers of a reckless reliance on Artificial Intelligence by any party without verifying that the same is genuine, and the potential for a party being found in contempt of court in circumstances such as these, even if done in good faith.”

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Last One Laughing UK season 2 returned to Prime Video on 19 March and fans are desperate to know when episode 4 will drop

Last One Laughing fans face a tough wait for the next episode.

Last One Laughing UK has just made a triumphant return to Prime Video with its second series, and fans may already be taken aback by the unfolding events.

A fresh group of comedians have stepped up to the plate, tasked with the challenge of making each other chuckle without cracking a smile themselves.

This year’s line-up boasts some formidable contenders including Sam Campbell, Diane Morgan, Romesh Ranganathan and David Mitchell, with Bob Mortimer returning to defend his reigning champion title.

The first trio of episodes landed on Prime Video on March 19, leaving fans hanging in suspense as they eagerly await the release of future instalments.

Here’s everything you need to know about when episode four will drop, along with a glance at the full episode schedule.

The celebrated comedy series, which marked Prime Video’s most successful UK debut ever, continues to be a massive hit among viewers.

Once again, the show unites ten renowned comedians who must keep a straight face as they strive to knock out their competitors.

The UK edition follows in the footsteps of successful international versions, and there’s also a well-liked Irish adaptation of the programme.

Host Jimmy Carr shared his thoughts on the new series: “This is an all-star line-up and there are lots of players who are genuinely friends of mine.

“What’s great is the line-up contains the breadth of British comedy, because you want there to be some great stand-ups, but you also want great actors, too.”

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Last One Laughing episode release schedule

The fourth episode of Last One Laughing UK’s second series will arrive on Prime Video on March 26, which means viewers will need to hold tight for another week.

Fortunately, episode five will also become available on the same date, giving fans two episodes to enjoy consecutively.

Following that, there will be another seven-day wait before episode six, the concluding instalment, which arrives on April 2.

The complete release timetable is as follows:

Episode 1 – March 19

Episode 2 – March 19

Episode 3 – March 19

Episode 4 – March 26

Episode 5 – March 26

Episode 6 – April 2

This represents a different rollout strategy compared to the inaugural series, which was divided into just two segments rather than three.

Last One Laughing UK returns to Prime Video on March 26

Iran targeted energy facilities across the Middle East on March 18, including the world’s largest liquefied natural gas hub in Qatar, in retaliation for Israeli strikes on an Iranian gas field hours earlier.

Iran has gone on to attack other energy facilities across the Gulf. This has included hitting a Saudi refinery on the Red Sea and setting two Kuwaiti oil refineries ablaze in an intensification of its campaign against energy infrastructure in the region.

As an expert on military strategy, I see the Iranian attacks on Gulf energy facilities as part of a broader strategic agenda the regime in Tehran has employed to try and ensure its survival.

Iran’s attacks on energy infrastructure since the start of the conflict have been accompanied with wider missile and drone strikes against US military bases and infrastructure in the region. Through these attacks, which have killed seven American service personnel so far, the regime has looked to demonstrate its capacity and capability not only to international audiences but also the Iranian population.

This includes, perhaps most importantly, those responsible for maintaining Iran’s internal security. If those tasked with this responsibility began to doubt the regime’s capacity to respond to attack, they might become less inclined to suppress rebellions and uprisings.

The ability to exercise force has long been central to maintaining the regime’s domestic political position in Iran. This has been demonstrated by the brutal repression of various protest movements over the past decade or so.

In its attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, Iran has two main goals. The first is to hit the Gulf states economically in the hope that this will reduce their willingness to provide support to the US.

Gulf countries are heavily reliant on the export of energy for revenue. In Qatar, for example, earnings from the hydrocarbon sector accounted for 83% of total government revenues in 2023. These revenues help Gulf states maintain the low tax regime that is enjoyed by their populations.

If these revenues reduce substantially because energy cannot be processed, some of these nations may begin to question their alliances with the US. Such a scenario would reduce the ability of the US to conduct military operations in the Middle East and project its power and influence on the region.

The war is already having a significant impact on these countries. Goldman Sachs has estimated that Qatar and Kuwait could see their GDP drop by 14% if the war lasts until the end of April. Likewise, Capital Economics has suggested that GDP in the region could fall by between 10% to 15% if the conflict causes lasting damage to energy infrastructure.

Rifts do not yet appear to be emerging between the US and its Middle Eastern allies. But Tehran will be calculating that prolonged attacks – alongside continued disruption to the vital strait of Hormuz shipping lane – will add strain to relations.

Raising energy prices

Iran’s second, and wider, goal is to raise global energy prices. The Middle East is a key energy supplier globally, so disruption to supplies in this region can have an almost immediate impact on prices.

The price of a barrel of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil pricing, has increased from around US$68 (£51) on February 27 to nearly US$100. This has so far largely been the result of disruption to the strait of Hormuz, which has prevented the Gulf states from supplying their energy to global markets.

But Tehran’s calculation appears to be that further efforts to reduce Gulf energy supplies will force nations worldwide, who are having to implement costly policies to reduce the impact of increased energy prices on their populations, to question the actions of the US in Iran.

In the Philippines, which is highly dependent on the Gulf oil, the government has told its agencies to cut electricity and fuel use by between 10% and 20%. Vietnam has introduced work-from-home policies for many public sector workers. And the UK government has announced a £53 million support package for people who rely on oil for central heating.

Iran’s final strategic consideration is that attacking energy facilities may help erode domestic support for Trump in the US. This could force a change in political direction. The price of petrol has already increased to an average of US$3.60 per gallon in the US – a level not seen since the opening days of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

This price increase will be passed on to consumers, creating a headache for Trump ahead of midterm elections in November. Trump’s platform of reducing the inflation seen under the Biden administration was a key part of the election campaign that successfully returned him to the White House.

Iran’s attacks on energy infrastructure are likely to continue. This is because they enable the regime in Tehran to increase the costs of the war even to those who are not directly involved, ramping up global pressure on the US to draw the conflict to a close.