How close is a peace deal in Ukraine – and have we been here before? | World News

Russian, Ukrainian and US negotiators are taking part in the first trilateral talks since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The three-way security discussions in Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates, are part of efforts to reach a deal to end the war.

Currently, the talks are being described as “informal”, but more “formal” discussions are due to happen later in the day.

The Kremlin confirmed the talks would take place but warned that long-lasting peace would not be possible unless territorial issues were resolved.

It comes after three US envoys, including Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump‘s son-in-law Jared Kushner, held a four-hour meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday, while Mr Trump met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

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Here’s everything you need to know as representatives from the three countries come together for peace talks.

How close is a peace deal?

The US has held talks with Russia, and separately with Ukrainian and European leaders, over various different drafts of a peace plan.

US envoy Mr Witkoff said as recently as Thursday that “a lot of progress” had been made and negotiations were down to one last issue.

The main sticking point on any agreed deal remains territory.

Russia continues to demand that Ukraine surrenders the roughly 20% (1,900 square miles) of Donetsk it has not taken on the battlefield – land that Mr Zelenskyy has refused to withdraw from.

Donetsk is one of two eastern regions which comprise Donbas. Russian forces already control nearly all of the other region, Luhansk.

After the latest meeting with Mr Trump, the Ukrainian leader said that the future status of land in eastern Ukraine currently occupied by Russia is unresolved but that peace proposals are “nearly ready”.

Russian foreign affairs adviser, Yuri Ushakov, also said that it was reaffirmed by Mr Putin to the US envoys that “reaching a long-term settlement can’t be expected without solving the territorial issue”.

Security guarantees

Mr Zelenskyy added that he is also waiting for Mr Trump to agree a specific date and time to sign a deal on US security guarantees for Kyiv.

He said the document is “done” but is yet to be signed. The document is also yet to be made public.

The country has sought strong ‌security guarantees from allies to counter any renewed Russian aggression in the future.

Mr Trump’s draft 28-point peace plan to end the war specifically outlined that Ukraine would receive “robust” security guarantees.

The UK and France have already committed to send some troops to Ukraine in “military hubs” in the event of a ceasefire, as part of the Coalition of the Willing.

Will any leaders be at trilateral talks?

Only delegations from each country will meet in Abu Dhabi on Friday.

Ukraine said it would send its lead negotiator Rustem Umerov and Mr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov, while Moscow has said it will send Admiral Igor Kostyukov to head its team at the UAE-based security talks.

Mr Putin’s envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, is expected to hold separate talks on economic issues with US envoy Mr Witkoff.

Have we been here before?

Sky News correspondent Sally Lockwood said the trilateral meeting marks “a significant moment” but added that it is “important to keep hopes rather tempered, because of course, we have been here before”.

In November, military officials from all three sides met in Abu Dhabi, although it remains unclear if all were in the same room at the same time.

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Direct Ukraine-Russia talks are a ‘significant moment’

A significant meeting between Ukrainian and Russian government officials also took place in Turkey last May. There were hopes that the encounter might mark a turning point in Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War Two, but in reality the meeting barely lasted two hours.

Then again in August, a historic meeting between Mr Trump and Mr Putin in Alaska saw the two leaders discuss the possibility of Ukraine giving up territory in exchange for an end to the fighting, but no firm agreements came from it.

Sally Lockwood added that the latest peace talks are a wait and watch situation.

She said the fast pace at which peace talks in Abu Dhabi were agreed to could indicate that each side have at least “contemplated a compromise they might be willing to accept” before meeting.

It is also the first time Mr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov, who was appointed in early January, will be present at talks.

Lockwood said she was informed by a US source that he is the only one of Mr Zelenskyy’s staff that the US takes “really seriously” and that it is “hugely significant” that he will be in attendance.

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What’s happening on the frontline?

While peace talks happen in Abu Dhabi, Moscow has shown no signs that it’s willing to halt its bombings of civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

Overnight, Russia fired about 101 drones at Ukraine, 76 of which were shot down, while 19 struck 12 locations, according to Ukraine’s air force.

In the east of the country, four people, including a five-year-old child, were killed in a Russian overnight strike, the state emergency service said.

Nearly 2,000 apartment buildings in the Ukrainian capital are also without heating after a Russian attack last week caused a blackout, according to Kyiv’s mayor Vitali Klitschko.

The EU has said it will deploy 447 emergency generators from its strategic reserves in Poland to try and curb freezing conditions for some of those affected.

Kremlin aide Mr Ushakov said on Thursday night that until a diplomatic solution is achieved, Russia would “continue to consistently pursue the objectives of the special military ‌operation”.

“This is especially true on the battlefield, where the Russian armed forces hold the strategic initiative.”