Rachel Reeves will unveil a crackdown on companies exploiting the crisis in the Middle East in a bid to protect working people from “unfair price rises”.

The chancellor will lay out plans to MPs in the Commons for an “anti-profiteering framework” to catch firms raising prices unfairly during the Iran war.

She is also expected to call for a more diverse mix of energy sources to protect the public against voilatile oil and gas markets.

It comes following an emergency Cobra meeting on Monday, when Ms Reeves met with Sir Keir Starmer to address the economic impact of the Iran war.

The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, crucial to the world’s oil supply, has sent prices spiralling – although they fell on Monday after Donald Trump claimed that talks were taknig place with Iran to end the conflict.

Also on Monday, Sir Keir said Britain must be prepared for the Iran war to continue “for some time”.

In a statement following the Cobra meeting, Downing Street said: “The Chancellor set out the steps she will take tomorrow [Tuesday] – in a statement to Parliament – that will help protect working people from unfair price rises.”

Motorists should not drive slower because of Iran oil crisis, minister

Motorists should not drive slower nor buy fuel differently because of the Iran oil crisis, an energy minister has said.

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Michael Shanks was asked by Times Radio if drivers should change their habits as a result of the oil restrictions caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

He told the broadcaster: “They should do everything as absolutely normal because there is no shortage of fuel anywhere in the country at the moment. We monitor this every single day, I look at the numbers personally. There’s no issue at all with that.”

Mr Shanks added: “People should go about their business as normal. That’s what the RAC and the AA have said. It’s really important people do that.

“There’s no shortage of fuel and everything is working as normal.”

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Asked directly if drivers should slow their speed, Mr Shanks replied: “Look genuinely, people shouldn’t change their behaviour or their habits in the slightest.”

Tara Cobham24 March 2026 07:28

Starmer to give Competition and Markets Authority ‘further teeth’ to protect customers

Sir Keir Starmer said on Monday he was looking at giving the Competition and Markets Authority “further teeth” so it can better protect customers.

As part of that, Downing Street said the Government will not hesitate to give the CMA and other regulators “time-limited, targeted powers” if needed. The Treasury, Department for Business and Trade and regulators are working “at pace” on what those powers could be.

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Bryony Gooch24 March 2026 07:10

No 10: Reeves to ‘crack down on companies if they exploit’ Iran war

Chancellor Rachel Reeves, governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey and energy secretary Ed Miliband gave updates on the economy regarding the crisis in the Middle East in a Cobra meeting on Monday.

They stressed that de-escalation and ending the Iran conflict was “the best thing we can do for the economy”, Downing Street said in a readout.

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“The Chancellor set out the steps she will take tomorrow – in a statement to Parliament – that will help protect working people from unfair price rises.

“She spoke about a plan to detect and crack down on companies if they exploit the crisis in the Middle East. This will take the form of a new anti-profiteering framework which will help regulators like the CMA to root out price gouging.”

Bryony Gooch24 March 2026 07:00

Oscar-nominated actress Valerie Perrine has died at the age of 82 after a ‘courageous’ health battle.

The star is best known for playing Eve Teschmacher, the love interest of Lex Luthor in the Superman films, who was played by Gene Hackman.

Announcing her death online, Perrine’s friend Stacey Souther wrote on a GoFundMe page that she died at her home ‘surrounded by love’ on March 23.

This came after a ‘quiet, courageous battle against both Parkinson’s disease and debilitating central tremors.’

Perrine’s acting career included roles in Slaughterhouse-Five, the Electric Horseman and 1974’s Lenny, for which she received an Academy Award nomination for Best Actress.

The star was also known as a global sex symbol, having posed for Playboy magazine twice.

Writing on social media, Souther said: ”It is with deep sadness that I share the heartbreaking news that Valerie has passed away.

‘She faced Parkinson’s disease with incredible courage and compassion, never once complaining.

‘She was a true inspiration who lived life to the fullest—and what a magnificent life it was. The world feels less beautiful without her in it.

‘I love you, Valerie. I’ll see you on the other side.’

Souther also created a GoFundMe to help fulfill Perrine’s last wish of being buried at Forest Lawn Memorial Park after she exhausted her finances during her health battle.

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Life expectancy in the UK has risen dramatically since the Industrial Revolution. For more than a century, people lived increasingly long and healthy lives. But around the turn of the millennium, that progress began to slow.

In 2015, economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton published a landmark study showing something unexpected. From the late 1990s onwards, death rates among middle-aged white Americans without university degrees had started to rise. Three causes of death were driving the trend: suicide, drug overdoses and alcohol-related disease. Case and Deaton called these “deaths of despair” and they have been a topic of research in public health ever since.

Although deaths of despair were originally thought to be a specifically American problem, researchers have been concerned that similar patterns exist elsewhere. New research from my colleague Eurwen Williams and myself suggests they do. And in England and Wales, they are particularly common in one type of place: former coal mining communities.

Coal once powered the UK’s economy. At its peak in 1920, the industry employed more than 5% of the entire UK workforce. Mining shaped towns and villages across England, Wales and Scotland. Work was hard, but it provided stable employment and strong communities. That began to change in the late 20th century.

Competition from imported coal, the shift to oil and gas, and political conflict between miners and government accelerated the industry’s decline. The confrontation reached its peak during the 1984 to 1985 miners’ strike against the government of Margaret Thatcher.

Within a generation, most mines had closed. For many coalfield communities, the economic shock was profound. Jobs disappeared. Local economies struggled to recover. And many areas have never fully recovered. We wanted to understand whether this long economic transition has left a lasting mark on public health.

For our study we examined whether deaths of despair are more common in former coal mining areas than elsewhere. To do this, we linked death registration data from the Office for National Statistics with historical records of coal mines and the dates they closed. This allowed us to compare mortality rates between areas with a history of coal mining and those without.

We analysed deaths between 2015 and 2023 and looked specifically at three causes – suicide, alcohol-related deaths and drug poisoning. What we found was striking.

Across England and Wales, deaths of despair were consistently higher in communities that once relied on coal mining. Alcohol-related deaths were particularly elevated. In some coalfield areas, they were between 27% and 52% higher than in places without a mining history.

Drug poisoning deaths were also much more common, running 23% to 53% higher than elsewhere. While suicide rates were higher too, the difference was smaller, roughly 7% to 19% higher. Perhaps most striking was the fact that these patterns appeared even in places where coal mining ended more than 50 years ago.

More than just poverty

At first glance, it may seem obvious why this happens. Former coalfield areas tend to be poorer than other parts of the country. Poverty is closely linked to poorer health.

But when we adjusted our analysis to account for differences in deprivation, something interesting happened. The gaps became smaller but they didn’t disappear.

Former coal mining communities still had significantly higher rates of alcohol-related deaths and drug poisoning. Suicide rates also remained elevated in areas where mines closed more recently. In other words, poverty alone cannot explain the pattern. Something deeper appears to be at work.

The legacy of industrial decline can shape communities in ways that standard economic measures struggle to capture. The loss of stable employment, the weakening of social institutions and long-term uncertainty about the future can all leave lasting effects. These pressures may contribute to the kinds of distress that lead to deaths of despair.

A wider pattern of health inquality

Our findings fit with a growing body of research on health in former coalfield communities. Previous studies have found higher rates of mental health problems in these areas. Others have identified other public health issues, including greater use of anabolic steroids and lower uptake of COVID-19 vaccines.

Taken together, these studies suggest the effects of deindustrialisation can persist for decades. Coal may be gone, but the consequences remain.

The decline of coal is one of the clearest examples in modern Britain of how economic transitions can reshape communities. It shows how the effects of industrial change can outlive the industries themselves.

Many economists believe the world may be entering another major economic shift. Advances in artificial intelligence are already beginning to reshape parts of the labour market.

History suggests these transitions need to be managed carefully. For decades, the UK has often relied on markets to absorb economic shocks, with limited industrial strategy to support the places most affected. But our findings highlight what can happen when communities face large economic changes without timely support.

The story of Britain’s coalfields is not just about the past. It is a reminder that economic transitions leave deep marks on people and places. And if we want to avoid repeating those mistakes, we need to learn from them.

At least 66 people have died after a military transport plane carrying 128 people, mostly soldiers, crashed shortly after take-off

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At least 66 people have lost their lives following a military transport aircraft crash shortly after departure in Colombia.

It is understood that 128 people were aboard, predominantly soldiers, when the aircraft went down on Monday, 23 March in Puerto Leguizamo, Colombia. Dozens have sustained injuries, the head of Colombia’s armed forces confirmed. Four military personnel remained unaccounted for.

Defence minister Pedro Sanchez stated on X that the aircraft was transporting troops to another city in Putumayo.

“Sadly, as a consequence of this tragic accident, 66 of our military elements died,” said General Hugo Alejandro Lopez Barreto.

“At the moment, we have no information, or indications, that it was an attack by an illegal armed group,” Mr Barreto added.

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The remains of the victims have been transported to the small town’s morgue. Just two clinics in the town treated the wounded before they were airlifted to larger cities. Puerto Leguizamo is situated in Putumayo, an Amazonian province bordering Ecuador and Peru.

Footage circulated online by Colombian media outlets showed a dense black plume of smoke billowing from a field where the aircraft came down. A lorry carrying soldiers is seen racing to the scene.

Carlos Fernando Silva, the commander of Colombia’s air force, said specifics of the incident were not yet available, “except that the plane had a problem and went down about two kilometres from the airport”.

NEW YORK (AP) — Moments after an Air Canada jet collided at high speed with a fire truck at New York’s LaGuardia Airport, killing the pilots and hurling a flight attendant from the aircraft, the passengers took their escape into their own hands.

With the smell of fuel in the air and debris dangling from the obliterated cockpit, passengers tore open emergency exit doors, jumped off the plane’s wings and then turned around to catch others coming up behind them, some bleeding or with head wounds.

“Strangely enough, I wasn’t scared or panicked. On the contrary, I think most of us were pretty aware of what happened,” said passenger Clément Lelièvre. “So we all went outside; we got other people out.”

About 40 passengers and crew members on the regional jet from Montreal, and two people from the fire truck, were taken to hospitals. Some suffered serious injuries, but by Monday morning, most had been released, and others walked away without needing treatment.

As investigators continued delving Tuesday into what caused the catastrophic wreck, stories of survival also emerged — including that of the flight attendant, found injured but alive outside the aircraft.

Lelièvre credited the pilots’ “incredible reflexes” with saving lives. The pilots braked extremely hard just as the plane touched down, he said.

The collision late Sunday came after the fire truck was given permission to check on another plane that had aborted its takeoff after reporting an odor on board and started crossing the tarmac. An air traffic controller can be heard on airport communications frantically telling the fire truck to stop.

Roughly 20 minutes later, the controller appears to blame himself. “We were dealing with an emergency earlier,” the controller said. “I messed up.”

A key for investigators will be examining coordination of the airport’s air traffic and ground traffic at the time of the crash, said Mary Schiavo, a former Department of Transportation Inspector General.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said LaGuardia is “well-staffed” but faces a shortage of controllers.

The runway where the crash happened is likely to be closed for “days” during the investigation, Jennifer Homendy, chair of the National Transportation Safety Board, which is leading the investigation, said at a news conference Monday. Investigators need to sift through a lot of debris, she said.

Authorities recovered the plane’s cockpit and flight data recorders by cutting a hole in the aircraft’s roof and then drove them to the NTSB lab in Washington for analysis, Homendy said.

It was too early in the investigation to answer many questions about the accident, but more information was expected to be released Tuesday, she said.

The crash shut down LaGuardia — the New York region’s third busiest hub — during what was already a messy time at U.S. airports because of a partial government shutdown.

Flights resumed Monday afternoon on one runway and with lengthy delays. The shutdown caused some disruptions at other airports, too, especially for Delta, which has a major presence at LaGuardia.

There were 72 passengers and four crew members aboard the Jazz Aviation flight operating on behalf of Air Canada, according to the airline. The flight originated at Montreal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport. Canada has also sent a team of investigators.

The pilot and copilot who died in the first fatal crash at LaGuardia in 34 years were both based out of Canada, said Kathryn Garcia, executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which operates the airport.

Jeannette Gagnier, the great aunt of one of the pilots, identified him as Antoine Forest, and said he always wanted to be a pilot.

Air traffic controllers are not impacted by the partial government shutdown that has caused long delays at airport security checkpoints in recent days. They have been affected by past shutdowns.

The FAA has been chronically short on air traffic controllers for years.

LaGuardia is one of 35 major U.S. airports with an advanced surface surveillance system designed to help keep track of planes and vehicles crossing the airport.

An alarm heard in the background of the air traffic control audio was likely from the system and would have alerted the tower to the potential collision, Former FAA air traffic control chief Mike McCormick said.

FAA statistics show there were 1,636 runway incursions last year.

___

Associated Press reporters Michael R. Sisak, Anthony Izaguirre and Mae Anderson in New York; Rob Gillies in Toronto; Josh Funk in Omaha, Nebraska; Kathy McCormack in Concord, New Hampshire; and Hallie Golden in Seattle contributed.

In the lead-up to the recent men’s Manchester derby, officers from Greater Manchester Police (GMP) and partner organisations were deployed across the city to raise awareness of Violence Against Women and Girls (VAWG) and protect vulnerable people.

The United Nations defines VAWG as acts of gender-based violence that cause physical, sexual or psychological harm. While that includes serious crimes such as domestic abuse and sexual violence, experts say casual misogyny and sexist comments can also contribute by reinforcing gender inequality.

Fans in Manchester were encouraged to recognise abuse and challenge it.

Ch Supt Colette Rose – head of specialist operations at GMP – said: “I think VAWG is a societal problem. It’s high on the national agenda. It leaks into every aspect of our society, and that includes sports and football.

“What we tend to see at football is predominantly a male-dominated fanbase. If we can work with males around behaviours that may make women feel unsafe or intimidated and educate people, that will have an impact on wider society.”

Figures released by GMP show the number of reported incidents of VAWG at football matches increased from 18 in the 2023-24 season to 28 last season – and that is expected to rise again.

Her Game Too, meanwhile, told us they receive at least one report every matchday.

But Rose does not think that necessarily shows the issue is getting worse.

“I think what is actually happening is we’re calling it out,” she said. “And I think society is starting to see that these behaviours are unacceptable and our partners are really engaged in working with us on this.

“People are reporting it more because they can see that it’s wrong and we shouldn’t just accept it.”

Rose recalls one incident at a match in Germany when she was targeted.

“I had reason to speak to a couple of lads who were exiting the game and were very jubilant, but were singing songs that could have caused real offence in Germany,” she says.

“The barrage of abuse that I got on the back of that was very much about my sex, the way I looked… I was followed around the stadium for a bit and I couldn’t locate a police officer in uniform to support me.

“It shook me to the core. I didn’t realise I could ever feel that vulnerable in a crowd as a police officer, and in fear of that immediate violence towards me, purely because I was a female.

“The language used was very misogynistic and the person perpetrating it was using my vulnerabilities to make me feel the way I did. It’s a horrible feeling.”

Noel Gallagher has revealed an insight into his boozy reunion with little brother Liam as the two Oasis legends celebrated a victory for their beloved Manchester City on Sunday

Noel Gallagher revealed he and brother Liam partied for nine hours this weekend. It was a reunion we could have only dreamed about a few years ago, but any tension between the brothers is firmly in the past.

Just a few months ago, Noel, 58, and Liam, 53, hugged one another on stage in Brazil after their final concert on the mammoth Oasis Live ’25 Tour, a tour nobody ever expected to happen. But after playing 41 shows together and having put their differences aside, the brotherly love is as strong as ever.

This weekend, the Mirror revealed that the two siblings celebrated in style in a fancy box at Wembley Stadium, watching their beloved Manchester City beat Arsenal 2-0 to win the Carabao Cup Final. A source close to the band told us that it had been “many years” since the brothers attended a match together, and while it was “noisy and lively,” they were “both delighted with the result”.

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Now, Noel has shared an insight into their boozy antics, which saw the Gallaghers come out in force. They were joined by Noel’s two sons from a previous marriage, Liam’s sons Gene and Lennon, and Gene’s girlfriend, Nevey Maya, as well as Liam’s fiancée Debbie Gwyther, 41, who is said to be from a family of Arsenal fans.

“Liam invited me in his box. He was on spectacular form,” Noel said. He added: “We celebrated hard, we were in a boozy box. On either side of us were Arsenal boxes, and let’s put it this way — he [Liam] was letting them know that he was there. All the kids were there, we had a great time.”

Prior to hitting the road last year, Liam had turned his back on booze but found it fitting to have a drink as he soaked in the atmosphere at Wembley Stadium. Meanwhile, Noel joked: “I was out Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday. I am looking my age this morning.”

Liam, however, was said to be in a boozer close to his home with fiancée Debbie and his two sons at 2pm before they made their way to the stadium. Speaking to The Sun about the reunion over the weekend, a source said: “The lure of reuniting Oasis brought Noel and Liam back together, and now football has done it again.

“Remember, it was only a couple of years ago that Noel and Liam couldn’t bear to be in a room with one another. Then on November 23, they were hugging on stage in Brazil after playing their last of 41 sold-out shows around the world.

Being on tour together reminded Noel and Liam of the love they have for each other, even if they do still wind each other up now and then.”

While many were emotional after seeing Noel and Liam hug for the first time in decades during the opening night, Noel previously said that the band are not the emotional type. “We’re not those kinds of guys, really,” he said. He added: “It’s great to be back with Bonehead and Liam, just be doing it again.

“I guess when it’s all said and done, you sit and reflect on it. But it’s great being back in the band with Liam. I forgot how funny he was.” And while Liam was widely praised for his voice being on top form, Noel joked it was “AI”. Rocker Noel went on to say that he’s the “songwriter” before praising his little brother for “smashing it” on the tour, knowing how “difficult” it is to be the frontman of a band.

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EastEnders’ Nicola Mitchell actress Laura Doddington has revealed emotional scenes ahead on the BBC soap next week as her character goes into labour prematurely

Emotional scenes will take their toll on one EastEnders favourite next week.

Pregnant Nicola Mitchell is left distressed as she goes into premature labour. The character initially experiences pains and tries to keep them to herself.

After a visit to the hospital she heads back to Walford, but soon after a row with Penny Branning, the character is rushed to hospital where she gives birth to a baby girl.

Sadly Nicola is not allowed to see her baby daughter due to an infection, while the baby’s father, George Knight, is on hand to support her. Actress Laura Doddington has said we will see a more vulnerable side to her character as the episodes air, with Nicola left “broken”.

READ MORE: Coronation Street blaze to destroy iconic set as much-loved character ‘fights for life’READ MORE: EastEnders fans ‘work out who Jasmine killed before Anthony’

Laura said: “It takes a significant toll on her, and we see a real vulnerability in her, compared to her usually combative and protective parenting style. This week, the emotional strain and the inability to see her baby leave her broken, and the situation becomes heartbreaking for her, especially knowing that everyone else can see the baby while she cannot.”

It all begins at the start of the week, when Nicola hides the concerns about her unborn child that she’s facing. Laura explained: “She is incredibly distracted because she hasn’t felt the baby move, something that she initially keeps to herself.

“With the Knight Fusion launch being an important moment for George, she wants to support him and avoids raising his worries while trying to manage her own.” After admitting her fears she gets checked over before being allowed to leave.

Back in Walford there’s a moment where Nicola supports pregnant Penny after a run-in with Suki Panesar. Laura said: “From Nicola’s perspective, she was simply trying to speak with Penny when Suki interrupted, which infuriates her!

“Her opinion of Suki is already low given the recent issues involving Ravi and Harry. With Penny in the early stages of pregnancy, Nicola understands the anxieties that come with that experience.

“She also has a soft spot for Penny, who has supported Harry throughout his recent rehabilitation.” But soon Nicola realises Penny’s baby could be her son Harry’s, and not Vinny Panesar’s.

Laura revealed: “Nicola wants clarity as soon as possible on whether the baby is Harry’s. She’s incredibly protective over him and carries guilt about what he has been through.

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“She also feels she has fallen short as a mother, so if the baby is his, she wants to support him from the outset. Harry has hinted that he does want children and is beginning to think seriously about his future. With Harry and Gina still early in their relationship, she feels it’s important to establish the truth now rather than risk a more painful revelation later, once they have invested more in their future together.”

It’s during a confrontation about this with Penny that Nicola is overcome with pains, and eventually learns she is in labour. Laura shared: “Nicola is used to dealing with things on her own and doesn’t want to burden George with any additional worries.

“She is already dealing with loads of concerns that she wants to keep to herself, convincing herself they may not be serious. Having experienced false labour with both Harry and Barney, part of her also believes the pains could simply be another false alarm.”

Teasing what will happen for George and Nicola now that their daughter has arrived, Laura added: “I think they will make an excellent team, as they bring different energies and moral standings that complement each other. They have open and honestly conversations with each other, addressing things head on rather than avoiding them and they have learned from their previous parenting experiences.”

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Lacey Milner from Meadow Park Care Home in Bedlington has received a Long Service Award for her commitment to Barchester Healthcare.

She began working for Barchester in March 2011 and has held a variety of roles over the years.

Adele Keenan, employee services director at Barchester, said: “I’m always pleased to hear stories about the long service of Barchester staff and am delighted Lacey has achieved this milestone.

“It is dedication like this that ensures our residents are provided with the best possible care.”

Colleagues have praised her work ethic and dedication.

Julie Bond, general manager at Meadow Park, said: “We’re delighted to be celebrating 15 years of loyal service with Lacey.

“She has demonstrated her dedication and commitment to this home and its residents year after year.

“I speak for all of us here at Meadow Park when I say that I’m looking forward to many more years of working with Lacey.”

Meadow Park Care Home is part of Barchester Healthcare and provides residential and dementia care for 61 residents from respite breaks to long term stays.

The UK’s latest law on sentencing came into force on March 22. Among other changes, the new law means that, in England and Wales, people who would previously have been sent to prison for short sentences will instead serve those sentences in the community.

This means they will need to attend appointments with probation, do certain rehabilitative activities and may also be restricted from doing certain things or going to certain areas. They might also be required to do a set number of hours of community service.

The new law requires courts to avoid imposing custodial sentences of less than 12 months, except in exceptional circumstances. It also extends the maximum sentence that can be suspended from two years to three. This gives judges discretion to suspend sentences for more serious offences that would previously have required immediate custody.

Possession with intent to supply class A drugs (where a guilty plea can reduce a starting-point sentence to three years); street robbery; the most serious forms of controlling and coercive behaviour; and a third conviction for domestic burglary could now all, in theory, be suspended.

At the end of 2025, there were around 3,500 people serving a prison sentence of less than 12 months in England and Wales. Around 44% of all prison sentences are shorter than 12 months. They tend to be imposed for offences such as shoplifting, common assault or breaches of restraining orders.

People given short sentences have the highest reoffending rates when compared to other sentences. Evidence from Scotland, where a similar legal approach has been in place since 2019, has found that people released from a short sentence are reconvicted nearly twice as often as those sentenced to serve a community sentence.

Short sentences mean that people lose access to families, employment and housing, but they do not allow prisons enough time to provide the support that people need prior to release. As such, they account for more than half of all recalls to prison following release, and have contributed to increases in the prison population in recent years.

People serving short sentences typically have acute and unaddressed needs, such as housing instability, substance misuse and mental health concerns. And evidence shows that people sentenced for similar offences are more likely to offend after a short prison sentence than if they had been given a community sanction.

The changes are intended to alleviate pressure on the prison estate by reducing the number of people given immediate custody. Prisons in England and Wales have been working at capacity for years.

These new powers should also prevent the need for emergency early release schemes, which have failed in the past. Both Conservative and Labour governments have introduced emergency early release schemes in recent years. Under a scheme run by the previous Conservative government from 2023-24, 42% of people released were recalled to custody. This was partly due to an inability to plan for their release, and a shortage of support services such as accommodation.

We do not yet have recall data for the scheme introduced by the Labour government in 2024, which allows people to be released 40% of the way through their sentence. But overall recall rates have remained high.

With the new law in force, we should see a relatively quick decline in the number of people sentenced to custody. A steady reduction in the prison population should follow.

It is also worth highlighting that expanding the use of community sanctions can backfire, resulting instead in unintended net-widening: more people drawn into the penal system overall, rather than just reducing the number of people in prison. This could happen if judges begin to give more suspended sentences to those who would otherwise have been given a fine or community order. They may also sentence people to longer in prison to avoid the requirement to suspend the sentence – what criminologists call up-tariffing.

À lire aussi :
How a doubling of sentence lengths helped pack England’s prisons to the rafters

Although broadly positive, these changes are not necessarily a silver bullet for the well-documented prisons crisis. For one thing, the reforms will result in more work for the probation service, which is already under pressure. In recent inspection reports, the probation inspectorate has described the service as having “too few staff, with too little experience and training, managing too many cases”.

Introducing more people with higher risk profiles into probation narrows the margin for error considerably. The service has been planning for these changes – by reducing the extent to which people at the end of their sentences are supervised – but how well it copes with these increased numbers remains to be seen.

If probation fails to cope, we may see more people breaching their orders. When this happens, their custodial sanction is activated, and they are swiftly put in custody to serve their sentence.

The effect on crime

There is also the question of whether the act will affect crime levels, which have been decreasing in recent decades. Criminological evidence has repeatedly shown that changing the seriousness of a punishment does not deter people from offending. What is much more important is the perception of whether one is likely to be caught, and the speed with which one might be punished.

In reality, most people who are about to commit an offence – especially those for which shorter custodial sentences are imposed – are not thinking about what sentence they may or may not receive at some undetermined point in the future.

Sentencing severity is a blunt tool for dealing with crime, especially given the complex reasons behind why people offend. The impact on crime will depend on other parts of the criminal justice system. Police performance, court backlogs and the nature of high-volume offending such as shoplifting and online fraud will all have much more immediate effects on crime levels than tinkering around the edges of sentencing.

Short sentences achieve very little beyond disrupting peoples’ lives and relationships and making it more difficult to find housing and employment, both of which are strongly correlated with re-offending rates. If probation copes with the additional workload, if recall rates do not skyrocket, and judges and magistrates stick to the ask, then the reforms could result in a more sustainable prison system that causes less harm than it currently does – that should be better for everyone.