The Met Office has released its latest aurora predictions for the UK, stating that the next incoming significant Coronal Mass Injection – a solar storm – would hit this evening
The Northern Lights will take shape in UK skies tonight following a “severe” solar storm, bringing the ethereal light display far further south than it would usually travel.
Intense auroral activity has developed over the country since Monday, when a severe Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) – the scientific term for a solar storm – slammed into the earth at high speed. The storm triggered typical stunning scenes over the northern hemisphere, but the significant impact has moved the display further south than it would usually, hitting the US as far south as New Mexico.
The lights have also moved further south over the UK, bathing the country in a stunning red and green – but only in select areas, according to the Met Office, some of which are more conducive to seeing them than others.
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On Monday, parts of Cornwall were graced with the aurora, as were parts of Scotland and northern England, as was Scotland which is typically no stranger to the lights, especially in its northernmost reaches. According to the Met Office, Brits can expect more of the same tonight, depending on weather conditions.
The agency has predicted that the next CME will arrive today, but while it was uncertain as to exactly what time, it appears likely to be confined to largely the same areas.
It predicts: “By the evening of 20 January UTC, auroral activity is expected to decline, though it may still be visible in parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and other similar latitudes with clear skies. Auroras are then forecast to return to background levels for the remainder of the period.”
The widespread spectacle of Monday won’t continue into Tuesday, the Met Office expects, with the aurora likely best viewed from the UK’s northernmost home nations between 6pm and 11.59pm.
The forecast states: “The aurora may continue to be visible in parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland Tuesday evening, but cloudy conditions will likely limit sightings.” The forecasters state that the force of a solar storm would have to hit a Kp level of between 8 and 9 for the aurora to be visible further south.
A current red warning issued by the Met Office suggests the activity tonight will only reach a level of around Kp7, meaning it will stay confined to the north.
The agency explains activity of between Kp8 or 9 is considered “extreme”. It states: “As the UK is south of where the natural aurora belt occurs (Norway/Iceland/Greenland), it takes a severe or extreme geomagnetic storm (Kp8-9+) to bring the belt southwards directly over the UK. This is a very rare occurrence.
“During more moderate to strong geomagnetic storms (Kp6-7), the Aurora borealis often moves southwards across southern Iceland or towards the Faeroes. These auroras can be faintly visible from the UK because they occur at high altitudes.”
