Pact Or No Pact, Reform May Already Turning Into The Tories 2.0

Nigel Farage seemed to attract even more attention than usual this week – and not exactly the kind he likes.

Not only has the Guardian revealed 28 witnesses have now accused him of making anti-semitic and racist remarks while he was at school but, according to the Financial Times, he told donors he expected to make a merger or a pact with the Tories before the next election.

When it comes to the allegations against him, the Reform leader has only admitted to engaging in “banter in a playground” and rebuffed the FT’s story completely.

But the reports evidently got to him. Farage stunned journalists on Thursday with a furious rant against the BBC and ITV in a press conference, accusing them of “hypocrisy”.

He also claimed there would be no deal with the Conservatives, and that any such allegations were “ludicrous”.

But, he did suggest Reform could engineer “reverse takeover” where he would absorb the party by winning over defectors.

But Farage insisted: “A deal with them as they are would cost us votes.”

Reform are indeed still ahead in the polls. More in Common predicted in a September mega-survey of 20,000 Brits that the next general election looks like it might be theirs to lose.

And the racism row is yet to put a major dent in their consistent poll lead: YouGov found the party is still ahead on 25% as of December 1, with Labour on 22% and the Tories on 19%.

If it did not scare off too many supporters, a combined the Tory and Reform votes would give a joint right-wing party a very generous lead in the polls (44%, according to YouGov).

But Farage’s apparent dismay over the idea of working with the Conservatives ignores an obvious fact that his party is already made up of former Tories.

He has accepted 21 individuals who have previously been elected as Conservative MPs to his party just since the 2024 general election.

Danny Kruger was serving in the shadow cabinet when he crossed the floor to join Reform in September.

Former Tory minister Andrea Jenkyns became Reform’s first mayor when she was elected to represent Greater Lincolnshire in April, while ex-culture secretary Nadine Dorries joined earlier this year.

Former MPs, Ee-deputy party chair Jonathan Gullis, Lia Nici and Chris Green, also joined just this week.

In fact, the party’s first MP was Lee Anderson, the former deputy chairman for the Tories who defected to Reform in early 2024.

Reform’s deputy Richard Tice was a Conservative donor and party member up until 2019, and Farage himself was a Tory until 1992.

The party leader even failed to rule out accepting right-wing Conservative shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick into the fold at some point in the future.

He justified accepting former Tory MPs by admitting people who have been in government just help strengthen the party, and seems to position Reform’s success directly against the Conservatives’ decline – even if unintentionally.

Just this week, when playing down reports of a merger, he said: “We will ensure [the Tories] cease to be a national party in May.”

But one more prominent voice has tried to clear a distinct line between the two blue parties.

Reform’s head of policy Zia Yusuf even had to tell supporters on X grassroots would get priority over “washed up” ex-Tory MPs.

He said: “I’ve had many messages from Reform grassroots worried about former Tory MPs joining our party.

“I want to be clear to our Reform grassroots: YOU will be prioritised in candidate selection for our next class of MPs, NOT failed former Tory MPs.”

This wariness from Yusuf about becoming the Tories 2.0 may be well-placed.

Political research director of pollsters at Savanta, Chris Hopkins, told HuffPost UK Reform risk starting to look like the sort of party the public are rejecting.

“Nigel Farage remains Reform’s greatest, and arguably sole, electoral weapon. It is he, and not really the infrastructure behind him, increasingly comprising of former Tories, that cements Reform’s appeal as an anti-establishment force,” Hopkins said.

“Providing he remains dominant at the top of the party, Reform will continue to be strong, but if a cabal of ex-Tories behind the scenes seek to undermine him, there’s a chance that Reform begin to look like the same sort of political party the public are so keen to break away from.”

The polling expert said that as a new party, Reform’s broadest appeal is that they no longer present a great electoral risk.

He said: “If they can’t trust the Tories to be competent after 14 years in government, and they can’t trust Labour after 18 months to have done any better, then why not roll the dice on something completely different. In short, how bad could they actually be?

“But that still relies on Reform UK looking different to the Tories.

“Minor defections don’t really move the needle with the public, but if there does become a sense that Reform UK are just the Conservatives 2.0, I’m less convinced of their appeal compared to what they have cultivated so far, which is a clean break and an alternative from the Con-Lab status quo.”

Their political opponents have been quick to criticise the idea of a merger, too, no matter how much Reform deny it.

Keir Starmer dubbed the idea of a Tory-Reform pact an “unholy alliance of austerity and failure” during prime minister’s questions on Wednesday.

A Labour Party spokesperson told HuffPost UK that Reform was becoming an “unsavoury cocktail of ex-Tories”.

“The Tories were responsible for breaking our public services and hammering family finances while in power. Now they are the recycled face of Nigel Farage’s party,” the representative said.

“Reform can’t fool the public. This unsavoury cocktail of ex-Tories want to inflict that damage all over again. It’s a risk working people simply can’t afford. ”

The Liberal Democrats called Reform a “Tory tribute act only separated by a slightly different shade of blue”.

“The last thing this country needs is a rinse and repeat of the last Conservative government,” a spokesperson said.

Meanwhile the Green Party told HuffPost UK: “Conservative MPs defecting to Reform doesn’t concern us, we don’t want to intrude on the private grief of the right wing parties of inequality battling it out.”

While Reform has not taken any huge Tory figures yet, what the party chooses to do next – before the big test of the local elections in May – could define it in terms of its place on the political stage.

Will Farage play it safe by officially stepping into right-wing vacuum left by the Tories’ decline – or will he firmly establish Reform as an entirely new entity?