The world will be watching on April 12 when Hungarians head to the polls in parliamentary elections that will determine the country’s next prime minister. This may sound exaggerated, but these parliamentary elections are about much more than simply whether the incumbent prime minister, Viktor Orbán, will serve another term as Hungary’s leader.
His main challenger, Péter Magyar, was until two years ago a close ally of the Hungarian prime minister. On some key issues – future oil purchases from Russia, resisting fast-track EU accession for Ukraine – Magyar is a continuity candidate who, at best, signals moderation, rather than radical change.
If he fails to win a two-thirds majority, which would allow him to change the constitution and undo many of the deeply undemocratic changes Orbán has made to Hungary’s political system, Magyar’s hands will also be tied domestically and he may not even be able to deliver on his key campaign promise – to clean up the systemic corruption that has thrived under Orbán.
But – while important in itself – the outcome of the elections is almost secondary in a bigger picture of an election campaign that has revealed much about the broader, and increasingly fraught, geopolitical dynamics of European politics.
Orbán has been leaning into his close relationship with the US president, Donald Trump. At one level, this is not surprising. Trump has publicly endorsed him twice this year alone – first in February and then again in March. The US president also dispatched both his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, and vice president, J.D. Vance, to Hungary to add weight to his candidacy.
Vance, visiting Hungary just days before the elections, praised Orbán’s governance and leadership style as a model for Europe and attacked the EU for trying to influence the outcome of the vote.
Such blatant election interference by the US in a Nato and EU member state is as unprecedented as it is worrying. It signals a new level of determination by the White House to shape alliances with other far-right populists predicated on the vague notion of “moral cooperation … and the defence of western civilisation”, as Vance put it during his visit to Budapest on April 7.
But while Orbán revelled in Washington’s endorsements, his unconditional embrace of Trump is no longer the dominant approach to Washington among many of Europe’s rightwing populist parties. The appeal of the Maga movement is rapidly diminishing in Europe.
While fulsome in their support for Donald Trump for more than a decade, many European rightwing populists have begun to realise the fraught nature of their association with Trump. “America first” is exactly what it says on the tin. Moreover, Trump’s interpretation of what it means makes it even worse for some of his erstwhile supporters.
For Poland’s president, Karol Nawrocki, Trump’s cosy relationship with Russian president Vladimir Putin runs counter to the almost universal perception of Russia as the main threat to Polish security. For the Danish People’s Party, which sits with the far-right Patriots for Europe faction in the European parliament, Trump’s designs on Greenland were so unpalatable that one of its members, Anders Vistisen, told the US president to “fuck off”.
For others, like the French Rassemblement National (National Rally), Trump’s tariff threats have affected some of their core constituencies among farmers. Even more so, Trump’s illegal war against Iran, hugely unpopular across European electorates, highlights the electoral liabilities of an association with the US president.
This does not make these rightwing populist movements more liberal. They still share a broad resentment of liberalism and what it stands for: open societies, open borders and a commitment to global institutions. But many of these parties have staked their political legitimacy on the defence of the sovereignty of their individual nation states. They are now asking themselves whether this sovereignty is perhaps more threatened by Washington – and Moscow – than by Brussels.
The answer to this question will partly be determined by the outcome of Sunday’s elections in Hungary.
What an Orbán victory would mean
A win for Orbán would, at a minimum, indicate sufficient desire for an autocratic and illiberal model of governance and at least some residual appeal of an alignment with Trump. But that logic may not prevail for long in the face of the conflict in the Middle East and Russia’s continuing onslaught on Ukraine.
Sipa US/Alamy Live News
Orbán’s close relationship with Putin – and his persistent obstruction of the EU’s Ukraine policy – is likely to leave him increasingly isolated, even among otherwise ideologically close rightwing populists. This vulnerability became apparent as early as 2022 when Orbán’s long-time ally Jaroslaw Kaczynski, then Polish deputy prime minister, publicly bashed his pro-Russian leanings.
Divisions over the EU’s Russia policy have exposed one significant faultline among rightwing populist movements across Europe between those seeking accommodation with the Kremlin and those seeking deterrence and containment. The far-right Sweden Democrats, for example, threatened to leave the European Conservatives and Reformists parliamentary bloc if Orbán’s Fidesz party had been allowed to join. This is precisely because the Hungarian prime minister was seen as too close to Russia.
For these Russia-sceptical parties, Orbán’s alignment with Putin is clearly anathema. Trump’s apparently warm relationship with the Russian president is likely to deepen their unease about aligning too closely with the White House. Geographical proximity to Russia and a long history of confrontation with Russia will remain powerful drivers for these parties’ foreign and security policies.
Trump’s endorsement of Orbán may thus more effectively accelerate Orbán’s isolation among rightwing populists in Europe. This will undermine his agenda of building a powerful coalition of like-minded illiberal leaders eroding the EU from within.
These tensions and contradictions at the heart of a supposedly ideologically well-aligned transatlantic populist right movement predate Hungary’s parliamentary elections and they will outlast them. At a time of almost unprecedented global disorder and uncertainty, the battle for Hungary is both an election campaign and, more broadly, a key episode in the ongoing debate over the meaning of the west as a geopolitical project.
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