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Vile and ‘aggressive’ Tiktok star jailed for ‘at least’ 10 rapes

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Jennifer O’Brien, 34, who has tens of thousands of followers using her TikTok handle Jennifer Nieve

A TikTok star with tens of thousands of followers has been jailed for raping a woman ‘at least 10 times,’ leaving her living with ‘fear.’

Jennifer O’Brien, 34, was sentenced to 17 years in prison for sexual and violent offences committed against the victim.

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Manchester Crown Court heard the content creator, who is known as Jennifer Nieve with 15,000 followers on TikTok, transitioned from a man to a woman. The defendant raped the victim despite her making it clear she did not want sex. The defendant would become ‘aggressive’ if the victim did not comply, The Mirror reports.

Referred to as ‘Jordan O’Brien aka Jennifer Nieve’ in court documents, the defendant was found guilty after a five-day trial last year. She was convicted of rape, assault by penetration, threatening with an offensive weapon and another serious offence.

The judge, Recorder Tim Harrington, said the rape charge was on the basis that no fewer than 10 rapes had been committed. He said: “I have to sentence you for at least 10 occasions that you raped her. This was repeated offending.”

In a statement read on her behalf, the victim told how she suffered from panic attacks and anxiety as a result of her ordeal with the impact “deeply damaging”, reported the Manchester Evening News.

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She said: “I don’t sleep for very long, and I’m up at all hours of the night. If I am in a group of more than five people I suffer from anxiety.

“The impact has been long term and deeply damaging. I have lived for years with fear and anxiety.”

Defending, Dan Calder said: “The strongest feature available to Jennifer O’Brien in mitigation is her previous good character.” He said that O’Brien ‘does not agree with the verdicts returned by the jury’, but recognised it was the judge’s ‘public duty’ to pass sentence.

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Mr Calder said the defendant is ‘highly likely’ to be suffering from ‘complex PTSD’ and has a ‘history of trauma’. He said O’Brien had spent two years on bail and had been observing an electronically monitored curfew, which would count towards the overall sentence.

O’Brien, of no fixed address, was ordered to serve two-thirds of her 17-year prison sentence in custody.

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Volunteers are scouring the desert for Nancy Guthrie. Police want them to stop

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Volunteers are scouring the desert for Nancy Guthrie. Police want them to stop

The disappearance of Nancy Guthrie, mother of “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie, three weeks ago has prompted volunteers to launch their own searches in the dense desert near her home, hoping to uncover clues.

Ms Guthrie, 84, was last seen at her residence just outside Tucson on 31 January and was reported missing the following day. Authorities believe she was kidnapped, abducted, or otherwise taken against her will, with drops of her blood found on the front porch. However, little other evidence has been publicly disclosed.

The Pima County Sheriff’s Department has acknowledged the public’s concern but has urged volunteers to allow investigators to conduct their work. “We all want to find Nancy, but this work is best left to professionals,” the agency stated over the weekend.

Despite the sheriff’s request, volunteers have persisted in their efforts. A small group reported finding a black backpack on Sunday, though it did not match the brand of one identified in surveillance video released by the FBI, which showed a masked man at Ms Guthrie’s home on the night she vanished.

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A sheriffs’ spokesperson told Tucson television station KOLD that the bag and its contents didn’t appear to be viable leads. The Associated Press reached out to the sheriff’s department for comment on Monday.

Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of Today show star Savannah Guthrie, vanished from her Arizona home more than three weeks ago

Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of Today show star Savannah Guthrie, vanished from her Arizona home more than three weeks ago (NBC/Today via Reuters)

Two women from the group Madres Buscadoras de Sonora, or “Searching Mothers of Sonora,” who were carrying digging tools Sunday outside of Guthrie’s home, said they, too, would join the search. They posted fliers on Guthrie’s mailbox with her picture and their contact information.

Tony Estrada, the former long-time sheriff in neighboring Santa Cruz County, said volunteer searchers have good intentions in wanting to help and can serve as a force multiplier, but it’s crucial that their efforts be coordinated with law enforcement.

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“You can’t have people all over the place looking for something and not reporting to anybody or letting them know that they’re going to be in that area,” Estrada said. “They may be trampling into things that may come out to be helpful in the future.”

Nearly all search operations for U.S. law enforcement agencies are staffed with volunteers, said Chris Boyer, executive director of the National Association for Search and Rescue.

Untrained volunteers who show up to help in a search may mean well, but experts say they could end up contaminating a crime scene.

“It’s painful for law enforcement when that happens,” Boyer said.

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Volunteers should undergo background checks, be trained in things like administering first aid and preserving crime scenes, and work under the direction of law enforcement authorities, said Boyer, whose group provides education, certification and advocacy for search and rescue efforts across the United States and other countries.

A memorial grows outside the home of Nancy Guthrie, the missing mother of

A memorial grows outside the home of Nancy Guthrie, the missing mother of “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026, in Tucson, Ariz. (AP Photo/Felicia Fonseca) (Felicia Fonseca/AP)

Several hundred people are working the Guthrie investigation, and more than 20,000 tips have been received, the sheriff’s office has said. The FBI and other agencies are assisting.

The sheriff’s office has watched around the clock lately at Guthrie’s house. It also enacted a temporary one-way flow on the road so that emergency vehicles and trash collection trucks could get through. The constant presence of news crews, bloggers and curious onlookers has drawn mixed reaction from neighbors.

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Some appreciated the attention the case has been getting. Others have placed traffic cones and signs on their properties to keep people off.

Meanwhile, the tribute to Nancy Guthrie outside her home keeps growing, with flowers, yellow ribbons, crosses, prayers and patron saints for older adults and in desperate situations.

Aran Aleamoni and his daughter Ariana picked out a bouquet of red, pink and white flowers and placed them at the edge of Guthrie’s yard, alongside a sign that read “Let Nancy Come Home” and a statuette of an angel.

“My heart goes out to the entire family,” said Aran Aleamoni, who has known the Guthrie family for a long time. “We are all pulling for you. We’re with you in your corner.”

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Reform’s plans to cut taxes for the wealthy must be rejected outright by Scots

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Nigel Farage’s party plan to cut taxes and it would see cuts to vital public services, says Record View.

One of the worst aspects of modern politics is leaders making promises they know they cannot keep.

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Former Tory prime minister Liz Truss was an expert at this dismal practice when her farcical government announced its disastrous mini budget.

But Reform seems intent on outdoing Truss with the most preposterous tax plan in the history of devolution.

The SNP government, while far from perfect, has over the last few years increased income tax on the wealthy to help pay for public services.

In Scotland, unlike south of the border, university tuition and prescriptions are free and we also have the Scottish Child Payment to help low income families.

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These policies have to be paid for and the SNP government has made the decision to raise taxes.

Nigel Farage’s party, in an act of unparalleled recklessness, is planning to reverse all the tax rises at a cost of £2billion. This price tag also includes cutting tax rates to 1p below rates set at Westminster.

The problem with this reckless policy can be seen in Reform’s self-styled income tax “calculator”.

Scots earning £20,000 would receive a paltry £34.63 a year cut, while those on £1million would land a £41,431 boost.

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The rare Scot earning £10million a year would receive an annual cut of £401,431.

Reform’s tax plan is a huge subsidy for the rich and benefits the likes of Farage and his Scots sidekick Malcolm Offord.

It would lead to huge public spending cuts with schools, hospitals and roads all crumbling.

Reform have proposed a bung to millionaires and it should be rejected outright.

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Grasses a bargain

Last year, Police Scotland spent around £350,000 paying informants for information on criminal activity.

The amount was 12 per cent more than the previous year and more than double the figure dished out by cops 12 years ago.

The rising amount of cash paid out might raise eyebrows among those concerned about the correct use of public finances.

But this is money well spent by Police Scotland if it helps keep our streets safer.

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Recently cops have tightened up vetting procedures and recruits are now known as Covert Human Intelligence Sources.

Former police chief Graeme Pearson says informants are a vital tool in the fight against organised crime – and good value for money.

Given the rise in gang violence last year across Scotland, the police clearly need every weapon at their disposal.

And if the information gleaned from these underworld sources puts more bad guys behind bars that is to be welcomed.

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Dear Coleen: I can’t satisfy my wife so she wants fun with other men

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Dear Coleen

I HAVE been in a relationship with my wife for 10 years. We’ve known each other since school and have enjoyed intimacy and a good sex life, or so I thought.

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Recently, she admitted she’s never had an orgasm with me and always faked it.

I asked what I was lacking, and she told me size was an issue and I didn’t give her pleasure, as she couldn’t feel anything. I tried to look at ways to resolve this problem and found a swingers’ website.

I joined up and found a mature couple in the looking to entertain a younger couple. The location had to be far away from where we live, so this fitted the bill.

We arranged to meet with this couple and travelled up to see them. They were both a lot older than us, but looked young for their age.

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After a chat we moved to the bedroom. Visually, it was a turn on. I really enjoyed seeing another man satisfy my wife – is there something wrong with me for feeling like this?

She enjoyed the experience, too, and wants to continue meeting swingers, but I have mixed feelings. I’d love some guidance on this.

Coleen says

YOU’VE done something to please her and it worked, but now you have to think about what’s in this for you long term. If you’re having doubts, that’s a concern. You enjoyed that experience, but the possibility of it becoming a regular thing is a different scenario and it obviously bothers you.

If sex becomes all about you watching her with someone else, it can be very damaging for your self-esteem and for your relationship. So, I think you need a bigger conversation about where you take this because both of you need to be on board. The fact you’re writing to me suggests you’re not happy, but you’re terrified of admitting it in case it causes problems.

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I think you also need to talk about what does please her in bed. Maybe it is down to that excitement of doing something that other people would consider naughty. But you can be naughty without others being involved.

There’s a great book called She Comes First by Ian Kerner, and I know quite a few guys who read it and it transformed their sex life, so maybe give that a go and look into some other self-help guides.

But, as far as the swinging goes, you have to ask yourself whether it’s really for you. I dated someone once who loved lap dancing clubs and was also into porn. At first, I was cool with it because I loved this person but, as time went on, it destroyed my self-esteem because I wasn’t the one turning him on.

Think about what you want and whether it’s time to find someone who loves you for you.

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DWP minister says Universal Credit changes ‘might sound a bit hard’

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Cambridgeshire Live

Changes from April will halve the additional payment for new Universal Credit claimants with severe health conditions, as a Nottingham MP warns reforms must not become a ‘cost-cutting exercise’

A DWP minister has admitted that forthcoming changes to Universal Credit may “sound a bit hard” as a Nottingham MP asks the government not to exacerbate people’s difficulties.

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From April, alterations will reduce by half the amount received by new Universal Credit claimants with severe health conditions.

The government says this is part of a wider package of measures designed to encourage the 2.8 million individuals unable to work due to illness or disability back into employment.

However, a Nottingham Labour MP who previously opposed her government’s welfare plans argues that its reforms should not merely be a “cost-cutting exercise.”

Stephen Timms, the Minister for Social Security and Disability, visited Mansfield on Thursday (February 19) to observe a service that has assisted over 500 disabled individuals into work in recent years.

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At an employability conference at Portland College, Sir Stephen stated that the previous approach had essentially seen the DWP “abandon” those unable to work due to illness or disability.

Speaking to NottinghamshireLive, the minister said: “There’s 2.8 million people – far, far too many people at the moment – out of work because of a health problem or disability and we know that hundreds of thousands of those people would love to be in a job, so we are determined to make that aspiration possible.”

In addition to the standard Universal Credit allowance, those with severe health conditions preventing them from certain work activities receive an extra £423 a month.

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One of the government’s changes will mean that from April, new claimants will only receive half of that amount.

The government says the benefit reduction will be accompanied by a rise in the standard Universal Credit allowance and a £1 billion package of employment support – including 1,000 work coaches being allocated in Job Centres, a Connect to Work scheme expanding to the East Midlands from next month and a Work Well programme linking the NHS into employment support coming to Nottinghamshire in November.

When questioned whether the benefits changes would be too drastic, Sir Stephen said: “It won’t be a cliff edge because anyone who’s in the old system at the moment will stay in there, they won’t have their benefit cut.

“It’ll be new people coming in who will find that the the lower premium is available for them.

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“We’ll be matching that with the Pathways guarantee that they will get serious personalised support for moving back to work.”

Nottingham East’s Labour MP, Nadia Whittome, was amongst 49 Labour MPs to vote against the government’s welfare changes in July 2025.

Personal Independence Payments (PIP) and Universal Credit were the focus of the government’s original plans.

PIP is not linked to whether people can work or not, with the aim instead being to help claimants cover additional costs associated with being disabled or long-term sick.

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People are assessed against ten different categories to determine whether they are eligible and how much they should receive. The government’s initial proposals would have made it more difficult for individuals to accumulate enough points to qualify for PIP.

Downing Street eventually conceded a series of reversals, including the announcement that any changes to PIP were being postponed until a review was conducted by Sir Stephen.

Regarding the government’s aim to increase employment among disabled people, Nadia Whittome stated: “There are many disabled and chronically ill people who would love to work but currently find this impossible for a number of reasons.

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“The government is right to want to improve the support that it provides to disabled people, but it must be genuine support, rather than cuts to benefits which just make people’s lives harder.

“I was proud to work alongside disabled campaigners to successfully oppose the government’s proposed cuts to Personal Independence Payments (PIP) last year.

“The review of PIP that was promised in its place must be co-produced with disabled people, must improve the support they receive and the experience of claiming PIP, and must not be a cost-cutting exercise.”

Speaking about the PIP review, Sir Stephen told Nottinghamshire Live: “Spending on PIP has rapidly increased, really since before the pandemic.

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“We’ve got to make sure that we’re using those resources for the best possible impact to enable disabled people and people with long-term health problems to be independent, including if they’re up for it to be in work and to make sure that we’re removing barriers which have held people back in the past.

“We’re going to have recommendations by the autumn, I don’t know what’s going to be in those, but I’ve very much enjoyed the discussions we’ve had so far and I hope it’s going to be a really fruitful review.”

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Club 55- York councillors to rule on strip club’s licence

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Club 55- strip club in Micklegate, York, lodges licence bid

The application from Club 55, above Ziggy’s nightclub in Micklegate, to renew its sex establishment licence is set to go before a York Council hearing on Monday, March 2.

One objection has been lodged claiming it is fuelling antisocial behaviour in an area popular with tourists and families.

Council officials said there are no legal reasons compelling refusal of the application and the number of such venues will remain at the locally-set limit of one if approved.


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It follows a delay to a decision on the application after the council mistakenly sent it the Licensing and Regulatory Committee instead of a licensing sub-committee hearing.

Club 55, which offers lap dances and pole shows, has applied to operate for another year and continue opening from 9pm to 3am on Fridays and Saturdays.

It would also be able to open from 6pm to 4.30am on race days if the application is approved.

The venue’s application was approved last year without objections.

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Club 55 (right, first floor), in Micklegate, York. Picture is from Google Street View

North Yorkshire Police withdrew their objection ahead of last year’s hearing following an inspection the previous December after the venue was warned over not following licensing rules.

The police have not objected to Club 55’s bid to renew its licence this year, according to a council report.

The only objection to the application, from a Micklegate resident, stated it would be a shame if people started avoiding the area because of the club.

They said: “There is also concern about antisocial behaviour outside the venue.

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“We have witnessed an extremely violent attack between two groups of men waiting to go in, which led to at least 10 officers an ambulance attending and an arrest.

“An establishment which attracts large groups of men following heavy drinking sessions potentially lays itself open to this kind of behaviour, especially on race days when drinking starts much earlier in the day.

“Having a sex establishment inside a Grade II*-listed building in one of York’s most important historical streets has a detrimental impact on the street and city’s reputation as a leading tourist destination.”

The council’s report stated the venue’s owners could appeal a decision to refuse their application at a Magistrate’s Court.

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Northeast US begins to dig out from brutal storm

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Northeast US begins to dig out from brutal storm

NEW YORK (AP) — Neighbors, government workers and a powerful railroad snow-clearing machine nicknamed “Darth Vader” scrambled to dig out much of the northeastern United States from a brutal and — in some areas — record-breaking storm that blanketed the region with snow and resulted in thousands of flight cancellations.

But as the snow moved northward and tapered off in other areas Tuesday, forecasters warned that another storm could be right around the corner.

Monday’s storm that meteorologists are calling the strongest in a decade dumped more than 2 feet (61 centimeters) of snow in parts of the Northeast. By Tuesday, roads were beginning to reopen, mass transportation was coming back online in some cities and power had returned for some of the hundreds of thousands who had lost electricity in Massachusetts, New Jersey, Delaware and Rhode Island.

In New York City, which canceled classed Monday, Mayor Zohran Mamdani announced that schools would reopen for in person learning on Tuesday, raising questions about how feasible that is with snow still piled along sidewalks.

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Staten Island Borough President Vito Fossella said school should remain closed, while Michael Mulgrew, president of the United Federation of Teachers, described the situation as “a big mess.”

“There’s going to be low attendance of students. You’re going to have low attendance of staff because people don’t know if they can travel, if they can get to schools,” he said.

Spokespersons for Mamdani didn’t respond to an email seeking comment but his schools chief, Chancellor Kamar Samuels, said in a post on X, that they were “confident in our decision to reopen.”

Philadelphia switched to online learning Monday and Tuesday. Districts on Long Island and elsewhere in the New York suburbs said they would cancel school again Tuesday.

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The National Weather Service said it’s tracking another storm that could bring more snow to the region later this week.

While the new storm is not expected to be as strong, even a few extra inches of snow on top of hard-hit areas could make cleanup more difficult, said Frank Pereira, meteorologist for the National Weather Service in College Park, Maryland.

“Any additional snow at this point is probably not going to be welcome,” he said.

The weather service referred to Monday’s storm as a “classic bomb cyclone/nor’easter off the Northeast coast.” A bomb cyclone happens when a storm’s pressure falls by a certain amount within a 24-hour period, occurring mainly in the fall and winter when frigid Arctic air can reach the south and clash with warmer temperatures.

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More than 2,000 flights in and out of the United States were canceled Tuesday, according to the flight tracking website FlightAware. Most of the cancellations involved airports in New York, New Jersey and Boston.

Rhode Island’s T.F. Green International Airport paused its airport operations Monday as it dealt with nearly 38 inches (97 centimeters) of snow, according to the Weather Service, breaking a record set in 1978.

Central Park in New York City recorded 19 inches (48 centimeters) of snow. Warwick, Rhode Island, exceeded 3 feet (91 centimeters), topping the nation so far. The highest wind gust of 83 mph (134 kph) was recorded in Nantucket, with hurricane-force gusts seen all over Cape Cod.

New York, Philadelphia and other cities, as well as several states, declared emergencies.

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The Boston Globe management called off printing its daily newspaper for the first time in its more than 150-year history because snow and winds kept staff from safely getting to its printing plant, the newspaper said in an article on its website.

In the New York City-area, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority said Monday evening that subway lines are mostly operational after earlier delays, with the exception of the hard-hit borough of Staten Island, where rail service remained suspended.

Commuter rail service to suburbs to the north and east of the city were expected to resume limited service ahead of the Tuesday morning commute, the MTA said.

Christa Prince and two others were out in Brooklyn on Monday afternoon with shovels and an electric snowblower.

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“We’re just making a path for this car,” Prince said. “It’s not our car but you know, we’re just doing our neighbor a kind deed.”

___

Izaguirre reported from Albany, New York. Associated Press writers Mike Catalini in Morrisville, Pennsylvania; Mark Kennedy and Mike Sisak in New York; Darlene Superville in Washington; Susan Haigh in Hartford, Connecticut; Christopher Weber in Los Angeles; Philip Marcelo in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and Hallie Golden in Seattle contributed.

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Bridlington DadFest to return to South Cliff Holiday Park

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Bridlington DadFest to return to South Cliff Holiday Park

DadFest will return to South Cliff Holiday Park, in Bridlington, from Friday, May 15, to Sunday, May 17, celebrating father figures with a weekend packed full of activities.

The festival, organised in partnership with East Riding of Yorkshire Council and Rewilding Youth, was created by The Dads’ Network CIC and is open to dads, father figures, male carers and their children of all ages.

Dads and children are set to bond under the stars as DadFest returns to South Cliff Holiday Park in Bridlington (Image: Supplied)

Councillor Nick Coultish, cabinet member for culture, leisure and tourism, said: “It’s a pleasure to welcome DadFest back to South Cliff Holiday Park in 2026.

“This unique festival gives dads and children the chance to connect with nature while enjoying fun activities that help develop new skills and strengthen family bonds.

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“I had the privilege of taking part in the last DadFest and was hugely impressed by how well organised it was and by the wide variety of activities on offer.”

The weekend will include archery, camping, storytelling, beach games, trampolines, den building, and the Regional Dad Dancing Championships, with one dad crowned Yorkshire Champion.

The ticket price covers all activities and camping for the entire weekend.

A small number of discounted tickets are available for low-income families.

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Newton Aycliffe motorhome thief caught by DNA jailed

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Newton Aycliffe motorhome thief caught by DNA jailed

Lee Harris, 55, of Salisbury Terrace, Stockton-on-Tees, tried to steal a motorhome from outside a business on Grindon Way, in Newton Aycliffe, at around 9.30pm on August 22 last year.

After failing to get the vehicle to move by tampering with the ignition, the 55-year-old ripped the two front seats from the floor and made off with them.

Forensic experts examining the scene found a small speck of blood on one of the remaining cushions, which was analysed and revealed a DNA match for Harris.

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He was charged with attempted theft of a vehicle, theft from a motor vehicle, and criminal damage.

Harris pleaded guilty to the offences, as well as further charges, including theft of a motor vehicle, relating to a similar incident which took place in North Yorkshire last year.

That earlier incident, in January 2024, involved a late‑night operation in which an £85,000 motorhome was stolen from a driveway in Claxton, sparking a police chase through rural North Yorkshire countryside.

Harris and Alexander Ross, of Sunnyside in Middlesbrough, both attempted to flee across moorland, but were quickly arrested by police due to the fact they both tripped over.

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A third man, Thomas Bennett, was later found hiding under a hedgerow, while a fourth suspect has never been identified.

Harris appeared at York Crown Court last week where he was jailed for seven years and four months.

Detective Constable Joshua Chew, from South Durham CID, said: “This was an organised and pre-planned attempt to steal someone’s pride and joy, which caused extensive and irreparable damage.

“Thanks to the diligent work of our crime scene investigators, we were able to place Harris at the scene of the crime and bring him to justice.

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“I hope this conviction and sentence sends a clear message that we will relentlessly pursue those offenders who wish to cause harm to our communities.”

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Mexico may pay a steep price for the killing of Jalisco cartel leader El Mencho

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Mexico may pay a steep price for the killing of Jalisco cartel leader El Mencho

The leader of the Jalisco New Generation (CJNG) cartel, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, died in custody on February 22, shortly after he was captured by the Mexican authorities. The operation, which came amid renewed US demands for “tangible results” against fentanyl trafficking, appears to have relied on American intelligence support.

This is the most significant intervention against the cartels since the capture of former drug lord Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán in 2016. The CJNG is one of the strongest criminal organisations in Mexico and, alongside the Sinaloa cartel, sits at the centre of US claims about fentanyl production and trafficking.

The killing of Oseguera Cervantes, who is better known as “El Mencho”, may have enabled Mexico’s authorities to secure a political win with Washington. But the operation should not be seen as a victory. What often comes next when the Mexican state removes a high-profile cartel figure like El Mencho is an extended period of violence and instability inside the country.

In my own research on criminal conflict in the Tierra Caliente region of western Mexico, I trace how earlier rounds of arrests and state killings have reshaped local criminal groups, broken alliances and created openings for new players and leaders. It was through this very cycle of state enforcement and cartel reorganisation that El Mencho rose to prominence.

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El Mencho began as an operational figure linked to the Valencia cartel, an organisation based in the state of Michoacán. The group lost ground in the late 2000s following sustained pressure from the authorities. After key parts of the Valencia network were dismantled around 2010, El Mencho and other remnants of the group moved to Jalisco further north and founded the CJNG.

The conditions that allowed the CJNG to rise came from the same enforcement repertoire that the authorities have now deployed against it. This pattern matters because it undercuts a common assumption among policymakers, including in US agencies such as the Drug Enforcement Administration, that removing a “boss” equals dismantling a criminal market.

The removal of Mexican criminal leaders does not cause the market for drugs to vanish, nor does it cause trafficking routes to disappear. What changes is the balance of power among groups that already compete for territory, labour and access to ports, roads and local authorities.

Plumes of smoke rising from Puerto Vallarta on Mexico’s Pacific coast as violence erupts following the killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes on February 22.
EPA / STR

Studies that track the so-called “kingpin” strategy, the deliberate targeting of cartel leaders by law enforcement, have found that detentions and killings often trigger short-term spikes in homicides and instability in Mexico. Some work suggests that violence rises for months after a leader’s removal, while other research shows that the killing of a kingpin can provoke a sharper increase than an arrest.

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This happens because an affected cartel faces a sudden succession struggle and employs violence to prevent – or respond to – rivals testing the new leadership and trying to renegotiate areas of control. As criminal groups cannot use the formal court system to resolve disputes, they tend to do so through open violence or bargains enforced by coercion.

This logic of violence has already been seen following El Mencho’s death. Reports of cartel gunmen blocking roads, launching arson attacks and carrying out disruptions across multiple states fit a familiar script: an affected organisation signalling its capacity, punishing the state and warning local rivals not to seize the moment.

Even if the state contains this wave of violence, the deeper risk sits in what follows. A leadership vacuum invites internal fracture and external opportunism from rivals who have waited for an opening to test boundaries and settle scores.

The 2024 detention of Sinaloa cartel leader Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, for instance, has provoked a wave of violence in Sinaloa state as different factions in the organisation battle for leadership.

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US drug politics

Another cycle that keeps repeating across Latin America is that US drug politics shapes security agendas throughout the region. A surge in overdose deaths, for example, can lead to political panic in the US and the application of pressure on Latin American governments to take action, usually through militarised enforcement.

These governments respond with crackdowns, raids and high-profile captures. This is followed by rising violence as criminal organisations fragment and then, after a period of time, governments try to deescalate. The cycle starts again when concern over drug trafficking next arises in the US.

Drug prohibition keeps this cycle alive by ruling out any response other than force or criminal law, while failing to produce meaningful results. Most countries have criminalised drugs. But despite governments reporting rising drug seizures each year, deaths linked to drug use globally continue to climb.

Mexico’s security forces cannot end a transnational market that is financed largely by US demand, no matter how many high-profile arrests they make. Operations that result in the killing or detention of cartel figures instead redirect and reorganise the drug trade, while often intensifying violence.

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If Mexico and the US want fewer cartel-related deaths, they need to stop treating kingpin killings as the main metric of success. While a high-profile strike temporarily satisfies US pressure, it is Mexican citizens who all-to-often have to live with the blowback of this approach.

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Children in care denied school places, Lincolnshire home warns

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Children in care denied school places, Lincolnshire home warns

Rob Williams, from the National Association of Head Teachers (NAHT), says schools need support from health, social care and other services, adding: “Unfortunately, that extra provision is not always available and these types of services have been chronically underfunded for many years.”

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