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10 Senate Races That Will Determine Control of the Chamber

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10 Senate Races That Will Determine Control of the Chamber

As the presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris remains tightly contested, the battle for Senate control is equally competitive, hinging on a handful of critical races across key states.

With 34 Senate seats up for election this November, Democrats are focused on defending their slim majority. Currently holding 51 seats, they face the prospect of losing a seat in red West Virginia that has been occupied by Sen. Joe Manchin since 2010. If that happens, Republicans would need just one additional victory to reclaim control of the chamber, provided they manage to avoid any upsets elsewhere.

The stakes are incredibly high. The party that controls the Senate will have power over the next president’s legislative agenda, Cabinet appointments, judicial nominations, and more. 

Here’s a closer look at the ten key races that will determine control of the Senate.

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Montana

Montana’s Senate race is shaping up to be a critical test for Democratic incumbent Jon Tester, who faces a tough re-election campaign against Republican nominee Tim Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL backed by Trump. 

In a state that Trump won by 16 points in 2020, Tester’s incumbency has given him a slight boost, but he will need to appeal to a diverse electorate, including independents and moderate Republicans. The most recent Emerson College poll—from early August—showed Sheehy ahead of Tester by just two points. (Montana is not polled very often as it’s not a presidential swing state).

Many political analysts consider Montana’s race to be the most critical bellwether contest for determining control of the Senate this cycle. The Cook Political Report recently shifted its rating of the race from toss-up to ‘Leans Republican,’ while other analysts are waiting for more reliable polling data. Tester has defied the odds before, winning red Montana in 2006, 2012, and 2018—all strong Democratic cycles. Lately he has leaned more into the abortion rights issue, which is on the ballot in Montana this year. His campaign has also focused on Sheehy’s use of racial stereotypes to refer to Native Americans—a small but important voting bloc in Montana—while Sheehy aims to portray Tester as an out-of-touch Washington politician tied to the national Democratic brand. (Tester has not endorsed a candidate for President.)

Michigan

All eyes will be on battleground Michigan this November—and not just for the presidential election. The high-stakes race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in the nation, with the potential to tip the balance of power in the Senate. 

A September New York Times/Siena College poll shows that Democrat Elissa Slotkin, a third-term congresswoman, currently holds a narrow five-point lead over former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers. But unlike all the other Democratic candidates in key races on this list, Slotkin is getting a lower share of the vote than Harris, suggesting that Michigan could present the toughest challenge for Democrats to run ahead of the presidential race.

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Given that neither of the candidates are well-known incumbents, their success largely hinges on how Harris and Trump perform in the “blue wall” state that Trump won in 2016 but Biden carried in 2020. Rogers, who was once a Trump critic but later won his endorsement, has been hitting Slotkin on inflation and the southern border, claiming she’s part of a “Biden-Harris-Slotkin” regime. Slotkin, meanwhile, has positioned herself as the “normal” and “rational” candidate. Like many Democrats, she has made abortion central to her campaign, running ads highlighting Rogers’ past support for abortion restrictions.

Both candidates have national security backgrounds, with Rogers having served in the FBI and as chair of the House Intelligence Committee, and Slotkin having worked for the CIA and in the Pentagon. Slotkin has a strong fundraising record, with her campaign reporting $18 million raised in the third quarter. Republicans have also made significant investments in the state, with the Senate Leadership Fund committing $22.5 million to support Rogers. 

Ohio

Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown is one of the most vulnerable Democrats on the ballot this year. His re-election bid against Republican nominee Bernie Moreno, a wealthy businessman and Trump ally, is considered a toss-up. Trump is expected to carry the state in the presidential race, while Brown is currently holding a four-point lead, according to a September New York Times/Siena College poll. The good news for Democrats is that Brown, a well-funded three-term Senator, is winning 10% of Trump voters, according to the same poll, and has a history of performing better than the overall Democratic statewide ticket; in 2018, he won by a little under seven points while other statewide Democratic candidates lost by roughly three to six points.

But Republicans believe their candidate can edge ahead of Brown by nationalizing the race. In one of Moreno’s recent ads, he touts his endorsement from Trump and ties Brown’s record on immigration to Harris’. Democrats, meanwhile, believe they can win Ohio by building off of Brown’s reputation as a champion for working-class voters. Brown’s campaign has capitalized on Moreno’s recent comments questioning why older women care about abortion, airing ads that highlight his own support for abortion access in a state where a ballot measure to protect reproductive rights passed with 57% support last year.

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With substantial fundraising on both sides—total ad spending in Ohio surpassed $300 million—this Senate contest is ranked by AdImpact as the most expensive congressional race in the country.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin’s Senate race, Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin maintains a seven-point lead over Republican nominee Eric Hovde, according to a September New York Times/Siena College poll. Baldwin, the first out gay member of the Senate, has been a fixture in Wisconsin politics for more than two decades and has consistently out-fundraised Hovde, who has the resources to self-finance his campaign. 

Hovde, a banker and businessman, has attempted to frame Baldwin as out of touch with Wisconsin values, particularly on issues like border security and transgender rights. Baldwin, on the other hand, has made an effort to connect with rural voters and has received endorsements from groups like the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation. Polls show that Baldwin is receiving a higher share of the vote than Harris, who is leading the crucial swing state by just 1.5 points, according to 538’s polling average

Pennsylvania

There’s little room for error in the Keystone State, where its 19 electoral votes and contested Senate race between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick could play a decisive role in November. Casey’s lead has fluctuated between two to nine points in various polls, though a CNN/SSRS poll in early September showed the presidential and Senate races tied in Pennsylvania.

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The contest has become increasingly contentious as spending ramps up. Both the Harris and Trump campaigns have bombarded Pennsylvania with television ads, pouring $954 million across the commonwealth—more money than any other state this election cycle, according to AdImpact. The heavy presidential investment in Pennsylvania could help boost the Senate candidates, who have focused on contrasting their positions on issues like inflation and abortion. Casey’s campaign has spotlighted McCormick’s anti-abortion stance, while McCormick has sought to tie Casey to the Biden-Harris Administration. McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO who funded his campaign with his own money, lost a close Republican Senate primary to television doctor Mehmet Oz last cycle after he failed to win Trump’s backing. While the former President now supports him, Democrats have used some of his past attacks on McCormick in their ads to help Casey, a three-term Senator.

Arizona

In Arizona, the contest to replace retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, has become a focal point for both parties. Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego currently holds a substantial lead, polling 10 to 13 points ahead of Republican Kari Lake, who is a polarizing figure after her gubernatorial loss and persistent false claims of election fraud. Lake’s campaign has attempted to pivot away from her spurious claims about election integrity, focusing on issues like inflation and immigration. But Lake has been consistently polling behind Trump, who leads in Arizona by just under two points according to 538’s polling average

Democrats believe Gallego’s efforts to position himself as a pragmatic, experienced leader with a Harvard education and combat experience in Iraq are resonating, particularly with Latino voters. He has slammed Lake for her past support for banning abortion and for continuing to falsely claim the 2022 election was stolen, while Lake has painted Gallego as a far-left radical who voted for the Inflation Reduction Act, which she is labeling the “Kamala Inflation Act” since she cast the tie-breaking vote. While the contest in Arizona doesn’t appear as close as some of the other races on this list, the state has a large portion of independent voters that will likely decide the result. An abortion-related referendum will also be on the state ballot, which could boost Gallego. 

Read More: Here’s Where Abortion Will Be on the Ballot in the 2024 Election

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Nevada

Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen’s re-election campaign in Nevada is proving more secure than expected against Republican challenger Sam Brown. Recent polling indicates Rosen leading between seven and 10 points, buoyed by her incumbency and strong fundraising efforts. Brown, a West Point graduate and Army veteran who was severely burned in 2008 in Afghanistan when a roadside bomb exploded, has struggled to gain traction with Republican voters despite a compelling personal story.

Rosen has capitalized on the abortion issue, which is on the ballot in Nevada, highlighting her commitment to reproductive rights. Brown has said that he supports current state law legalizing abortion up to 24 weeks and would “close the door” on a federal abortion ban in the Senate. He and his wife even shared a personal story of her having an abortion as a young woman. (Democrats have pointed out that in a past race, Brown supported banning the procedure except in the case of a mother’s life being at risk).

Texas

Democrats are making a significant push to unseat Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas, turning up the heat in what many pollsters consider a sleeper race that could upend expectations. Rep. Colin Allred, the Democratic candidate who is outraising Cruz, has gained momentum in recent months as he highlights issues related to abortion rights and border security, hoping to appeal to independents and moderates who are disenchanted with Cruz. A statewide poll by Morning Consult in September found that Allred is polling ahead of Cruz for the first time this cycle, while other polls show him trailing within a margin of error. 

If Democrats can make a real run at Texas, it would allow them more room to keep the Senate even if they lose Montana. The last time a Democrat won a Senate seat in Texas was in 1988, though Democrat Beto O’Rourke came within three points of Cruz in 2018. Democrats are hoping that Allred, a former NFL player who flipped a Dallas-area House seat and would be the state’s first Black senator if he wins, can be the one to change that.

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The election has been cast by many as a referendum on Cruz, who has struggled with popularity in Texas. Allred has accused Cruz of “doing nothing to secure the border,” flipping the script on Republicans and blaming him for blocking the Senate’s bipartisan border deal earlier this year. Allred has also hit Cruz on abortion; an ad put out by his campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) featuring Kate Cox, who had to leave Texas to seek an abortion after her fetus was diagnosed with a fatal condition, and Amanda Zurawski, who sued the state after being denied an abortion despite facing complications, has received attention. “If you’re experiencing pregnancy complications in Texas, you’re in danger,” Zurawski says in the ad, “and it’s Ted Cruz and the anti-abortion extremists’ fault.” 

Meanwhile, Cruz has resurfaced comments that Allred made during the Trump Administration calling a border wall “racist,” which Allred said was taken out of context. Cruz has also targeted Allred for his support of legislation that would have banned LGBTQ discrimination in public places and his vote against a bill that would cut off federal funds for athletic programs that allow transgender athletes in women’s sports. “Boys and girls are different,” one of Cruz’s ads begins.

It remains to be seen whether Allred can capitalize on the dissatisfaction with Cruz to turn Texas blue, but his fundraising efforts so far have been striking: He brought in more than $1 million in a day twice in the third quarter, his campaign says.

Maryland

Typically a Democratic stronghold, Maryland is witnessing a surprising challenge by Republican nominee Larry Hogan, the popular two-term governor whose moderate appeal and high-profile endorsements are expected to keep this race in play for Republicans. Still, Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County Executive, holds a sizable lead for Maryland’s open Senate seat, which has been held by Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin since 2007. A recent Washington Post-University of Maryland poll shows Alsobrooks leading by 11 points, while Maryland-based pollster Patrick Gonzales had her up five points. AARP’s bipartisan polling team, however, found the Maryland Senate race tied at 46% even though Harris led the presidential race by about 30 points in the poll.

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Hogan, who has a track record of bipartisanship and rejected Trump’s endorsement earlier this year, has been polling well with Democratic voters. He’s expected to perform better than Trump in the state, but most analysts are skeptical that it will be enough to counter Alsobrooks, a former prosecutor and Harris ally who would be Maryland’s first Black senator if elected. Biden won the state by 33 points in 2020. 

Florida

A potential dark horse of the 2024 cycle, Democratic hopes in Florida hinge on former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who served one term in the House after the 2018 blue wave and is challenging incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Scott, the former two-term governor and Trump ally. Scott maintains a solid foothold in the state, which Trump carried by three points in 2020, but is only narrowly ahead of Mucarsel-Powell in most polls. An early September poll by Emerson College showed that Scott is leading by just one point, while a Morning Consult poll published just under two weeks later had him up four points.

With Florida being a potential—but unlikely—swing state, Democrats are hoping they can rally voters around key issues like healthcare and abortion rights. For Mucarsel-Powell to win, she will likely need to appeal to disenchanted voters who may have previously supported Scott. But with Florida’s substantial population of conservative-leaning retirees, many analysts say the state remains right-of-center this election cycle. Scott has also outraised Mucarsel-Powell by $30 million (including $14 million in self-funding) to $14 million. His self-funding helped him win razor-thin gubernatorial and Senate victories in 2010, 2014, and 2018.

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Galaxy Similar to Milky Way Discovered Where it Shouldn’t Exist

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Galaxy Similar to Milky Way Discovered Where it Shouldn’t Exist

A galaxy has been discovered in a place where it shouldn’t exist, baffling astronomers with its location and age. This galaxy, strikingly similar to our Milky Way, challenges current understandings of the early universe.

Around a billion years after the Big Bang, the universe began to settle into its more stable state, and it hasn’t changed much since. Before this period, however, things were far more chaotic—at least, that’s what scientists believed.

Galaxies are a prime example of this assumption.

Roughly 50-80% of galaxies within 7 billion light-years of Earth are organized, with a characteristic rotating disc shape, like the Milky Way. In the universe’s early years, such orderly structures weren’t expected to exist.

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Yet, new observations, detailed in a paper published in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, reveal the surprising existence of such a galaxy.

A Surprising Discovery

Named REBELS-25, it appears at a redshift of z=7.31, meaning it dates back to a time when the universe was only 700 million years old. The oldest known galaxies are just a few hundred million years older.

True to its name, REBELS-25 defies expectations.

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Markets send mixed signals

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Can rate cuts and good jobs numbers both happen?

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Need help getting pension credit so you can keep your Winter Fuel Payment? Call our experts TODAY

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Need help getting pension credit so you can keep your Winter Fuel Payment? Call our experts TODAY

TEN million pensioners face losing the Winter Fuel Payment – if you are one of them call our team of experts TODAY.

We want to help the thousands of pensioners who are worrying about paying their energy bills with tips and advice. And we want to help determine if they may be in line for Pension Credit.

We want to help the thousands of pensioners who are worrying about paying their energy bills

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We want to help the thousands of pensioners who are worrying about paying their energy billsCredit: Getty
We have gathered together a top line-up of experts — and our Winter Fuel SOS crew will be taking your calls

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We have gathered together a top line-up of experts — and our Winter Fuel SOS crew will be taking your calls
Pensions Minister Emma Reynolds has backed our Winter Fuel SOS campaign

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Pensions Minister Emma Reynolds has backed our Winter Fuel SOS campaignCredit: Roger Harris Photography

Our Winter Fuel SOS Crew, including energy experts and consumer champions, are available today to answer your questions from 7am to 7pm, or you can email.

You can even contact on behalf of pension-age friends with their permission.

PENSIONS Minister Emma Reynolds has backed our Winter Fuel SOS campaign to help thousands of older people with their bills and heating costs this winter.

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced in July that only households in England and Wales that receive Pension Credit or certain means-tested benefits will be entitled to the Winter Fuel Payment this year.

READ MORE ON WINTER FUEL SOS

Previously it was available to everyone aged over 66.

Charity Age UK yesterday published an impact assessment that showed 800,000 hard-up pensioners are missing out on Pension Credit and will now also lose the Winter Fuel Payment. Many wrongly believe they aren’t entitled to it.

Backing our campaign to help older people register for Pension Credit, Emma Reynolds said: “It is vital we make sure that pensioners know about all the support they are entitled to.

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Not only does Pension Credit top up income, it also opens up further support

Emma Reynolds

“Our drive to boost Pension Credit take-up has already seen a 152 per cent increase in claims and Sun readers can help spread the word.

“If you have a friend, neighbour or relative who is a pensioner and on a low income, telling them about Pension Credit could boost their income by an average of £3,900.

Get in contact

Our panel of consumer champions and energy advisers will
be on hand to answer all your queries from 7am to 7pm.

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CALL 0800 028 1978 or email winterfuelSOS@the-sun.co.uk

“Not only does Pension Credit top up income, it also opens up further support, such as the Winter Fuel Payment.”

Could you be eligible for Pension Credit?

Pension Credit can be back-dated by three months, which means the last date to claim and still get the Winter Fuel Payment is December 21.

As our Winter Fuel SOS experts take your calls, here we bust some Pension Credit myths.

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What is Pension Credit?

If you are over state pension age Pension Credit tops up your retirement income to a minimum of £218.15 per week if you are single and £332.95 for couples. It also opens up access to other benefits.

I have savings and own a home, can I still get it?

You can still be eligible. You may even get help towards interest payments on your mortgage. How much you get depends on your income and savings.

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Is there any point if I will only get a small amount?

Yes. If you get any amount of Pension Credit you may also be able to get help with other costs including Housing Benefit if you rent, a free TV licence if you’re over 75, help with your heating costs and more.

My mum has a severe disability, is there any additional help for her?

Yes, those with a severe disability could get an extra £81.50 a week if they get any of the following:

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  • Attendance Allowance.
  • Armed Forces Independence Payment.
  • The middle or highest rate from the care component of Disability Living Allowance (DLA).
  • The daily living component of Personal Independence Payment (PIP).
  • The daily living component of Adult Disability Payment (ADP) at the standard or enhanced rate.

I am a carer for my grandchild, is there any additional help for me?

Yes, if you’re a carer you could get an extra £45.60 if you get Carer’s Allowance or Carer Support Payment.

And, if you and your partner have both claimed or are getting Carer’s Allowance, you can both get this extra amount.

I was turned down for Pension Credit before, is it worth claiming again?

Definitely, especially if your circumstances have changed.

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Is there a way of estimating how much I could get?

There is a Pension Credit calculator at gov.uk/pension-credit-calculator to help you work out how much you could be eligible for before applying.

Alternatively, you can contact the Pension Service helpline on 0800 731 046 if you’re not sure whether you’re eligible for extra amounts.

OK, so how can I apply and is it complicated?

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Claiming is straightforward. You can do it:

  • Online at gov.uk/pension-credit/how-to-claim.
  • Over the phone by calling 0800 99 1234.
  • By printing out and filling in a paper application form.

And if you need some extra support, a friend or voluntary organisation such as Age UK can help you make a claim.

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Patrick Magee tried to kill Margaret Thatcher

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Bombing Brighton: The plot to kill Thatcher,08-10-2024,Patrick Magee,Patrick Magee 'The Brighton Bomber',Keo Films,Screengrab

Anyone wowed by Once Upon a Time in Northern Ireland (widely considered the finest documentary series ever made about the Troubles) will have been equally impressed by the production team’s latest film, Bombing Brighton: The Plot to Kill Thatcher. The focus obviously had to be tighter in this one-off 40th-anniversary documentary about the October 1984 IRA attack on Brighton’s Grand Hotel where prime minister Margaret Thatcher and her cabinet were staying during the Conservative Party conference. Nevertheless the bombing was carefully put in context of the wider Troubles.

Thatcher survived unscathed but five people were killed – including the deputy chief whip, Sir Anthony Berry – and 35 were seriously injured. Berry’s children Jo and Edward are contributors to the documentary, alongside former party chairman John Gummer and his wife Penelope. Gummer was helping Thatcher prepare her conference speech in the prime minister’s hotel room when the bomb exploded at 2.54am.

However, the biggest interviewee coup here is the bomber himself, Patrick Magee. Now aged 73 and looking more like a tenured academic than the hard-eyed IRA fugitive of his 1980s police mugshot, Magee spoke clearly and unemotionally of his radicalisation and subsequent bombmaking career.

Bombing Brighton: The plot to kill Thatcher,08-10-2024,Denis Thatcher, Margaret Thatcher, Cynthia Crawford,British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and her husband Denis leave the Grand Hotel in Brighton, after a bomb attack by the IRA, 12th October 1984. With them in the car is Thatcher's Personal Assistant Cynthia Crawford. They and many other politicians were staying at the hotel during the Conservative Party conference, but most were unharmed. **IMAGE MUST BE CREDITED**,2008 Getty Images,John Downing
Margaret Thatcher, her husband Denis and her personal assistant Cynthia Crawford leave the Grand Hotel in Brighton after the attack (Photo: John Downing/BBC/Keo Films/ Getty)

Indeed, Bombing Brighton put the events of the attack into the historical context of the republican hatred of Thatcher following her intransigence over the prison hunger strikes, in which Republican inmates starved themselves in their effort to be considered political prisoners.

Ten of them died as a result, mostly famously Bobby Sands. “She was a legitimate target,” said Magee, who went on to describe the rudimentary bombmaking process (“an alarm clock rigged to a detonator”). The one thing he adamantly would not discuss were the operational details of the attack, presumably so as not to implicate any so far unidentified co-conspirators.

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The bomb was planted weeks before it exploded, Magee safely back in the Republic by this time and watching the news coverage of the attack in a County Cork pub. “It went down well,” he said

The Berry children had also been glued to their TV screens as news of the bombing was reported – but in acute anxiety rather than jubilation. Thatcher having declared that the conference would go ahead despite the devastation, they hoped in vain to spot their father during the TV coverage.

Other interviewees included former civil service mandarin Robin Butler ( the PM’s principal private secretary, he was in the room with her and Gummer) and Sinn Féin’s former publicity director Danny Morrison. The latter still grieved the dead hunger strikers (“I think about them every day”) and held Thatcher directly responsible for her attempted assassination, calling her “an impediment to peace”.

More surprisingly, Butler expressed a not entirely contrary opinion, in that he seemingly viewed her intransigence as a character flaw: “Her utter defiance did in the end cause her downfall.”

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Bombing Brighton: The plot to kill Thatcher,08-10-2024,Jo Berry,Jo Berry the daughter of Sir Anthony Berry who was killed in the Brighton Bomb,Keo Films,Screengrab
Jo Berry, the daughter of Sir Anthony Berry, who was killed in the Brighton attack (Image: BBC/Keo Films)

However, It is the testimonies of Magee and the Gummers that are at the heart of the film (for the first hour of its 75 minutes at least). “I thought John and Robin Butler and Mrs Thatcher were lying in a sticky mess,” said Gummer’s wife Penelope as the couple recalled searching for each other amidst the wreckage.

Four others were killed in the blast: Tory official Eric Taylor; Jeanne Shattock, the wife of another official, Gordon Shattock; Roberta Wakeham, the wife of chief whip John Wakeham; and Muriel Maclean, wife of Sir Donald Maclean, the president of the Scottish Conservatives.

The injured included Norman Tebbit, then trade secretary, and his wife Margaret, who suffered spinal injuries and was left permanently disabled.

Magee was planning a new mainland bombing campaign when he was arrested in Glasgow in 1985. Sentenced to eight life terms he was released in 1999 under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement. “He’s free… my dad’s not free,” Jo Berry recalled thinking at the time. “How can this be justice?”

If the documentary had finished there, it would still have been an important, skillfully made piece of oral history. But there was a twist that elevated it into something more than a disinterment long-ago events. For, after his release, Jo Berry approached Magee for a meeting, the bomber initially intent on justifying his actions.

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However, “something in my head clicked”, Magee recalled. “I killed this guy who had created this woman. I don’t know who I am any more.” The pair have since met on countless occasions to promote reconciliation.

Not everyone is convinced by Magee’s reinvention as a man of peace. “I have nothing to offer on the subject of this gentleman,” said Edward Berry. “But if my sister is on this particular journey and if it does good then that’s fine by me.”

As for those of us at home, this riveting, even-handed documentary challenged us to make up our own minds on that score.

Bombing Brighton: The Plot to Kill Thatcher‘ is streaming on BBC iPlayer

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General Atlantic CEO says higher taxes will not harm investing

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Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

General Atlantic’s chief executive said higher taxation of capital gains in the United Kingdom would not affect his firm’s approach to investing, and that dealmaking would improve next year regardless of who won the US election.

Bill Ford, who heads the global private equity firm with $83bn in assets under management, added that companies with market capitalisations of more than $10bn would drive the IPO market going forward.

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“Investors want more market cap,” Ford said at the Financial Times Due Diligence conference in London, adding that small companies would struggle in the IPO market because “people want liquidity, and it’s very hard to generate sufficient liquidity when you’re a lower cap and you’re a long way from being included in an index”.

He added that the growth of the exchange traded funds market had been “negative for the IPO market” because “ETFs don’t buy IPOs, active investors buy IPOs”.

A drought in listings has persisted into this year in the wake of higher interest rates. Companies have raised about $26bn by going public in New York this year, roughly the amount that was being raised every six months in the years before the 2020-21 boom.

But Ford predicted that upcoming big-ticket listings, such as the expected flotation of Chinese budget fashion retailer Shein, could rouse activity.

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“It’s the kind of IPO that could excite investors and . . . reopen an IPO market.”

The slump in listings has been part of a wider dearth of dealmaking that Ford put down to higher rates and t elections taking place in the US and elsewhere in 2024.

But he said next year would be an “active year” once the political uncertainty had subsided and the “rate cycle has turned”. He added that “we’re looking at a soft-landing scenario”.

He said the prediction was not contingent on who won the US election, although “everybody is hoping for a change in the antitrust environment. I know in the US, probably more broadly, that will allow strategic buyers to be more active . . . but I think it’s irrespective of who wins the election.”

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Turning his attention to the taxation of carried interest — the share of profits that private equity investors get to keep on successful deals — Ford said he did not know that changes in the UK would “dramatically change what we do or our style of investing”.

Debates around the taxation of carried interest have long percolated through elections on both sides of the Atlantic.

The UK chancellor, Rachel Reeves, had put the industry on notice of her plans to close a “loophole” that has long allowed the windfalls to be taxed as capital gain. However, the FT recently reported that she was looking for a compromise after several warnings that boosting the rate could trigger an exodus of buyout executives.

“In the US the debate is, will it be the equivalent to ordinary income and what will that rate be? You know, everybody in the world would like lower taxes or higher taxes [depending on one’s political affiliation], but I don’t think it would change what we do,” said Ford.

“We’ve got to generate investment excellence for our clients to stay in business, we’ve got to produce the results they expect of us,” he added. “That more than taxes or anything else is what motivates us.”

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Parisian Hotel Embraces Champs-Élysées Spirit

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Columbia Hillen

Sitting on my upper-floor verandah at the Hotel Norman Paris gazing down on cobbled streets, it’s hard to believe I’m just a minute’s walk from the ever-busy Champs-Élysées.

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It’s soooo quiet.

Columbia Hillen

Formerly the Vigne Hotel, the building in the 8th arrondissement ten minutes from the Arc de Triomphe was purchased by hospitality entrepreneur Olivier Bertrand, renovated for a year and opened last September. It’s named after Norman Ives, a mid-20th-century painter and graphic designer who became a major player in American modernism. 

Located on the corner of Rue Balzac and Rue de Châteaubriand, the 37-room, 5-star boutique hotel stands out architecturally, crowned as it is by a large dome with a creamy stone facade and flower boxes on each floor. 

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Columbia Hillen

Curved-glass windows and metal railings at its corner indicate where junior suites with balconies are located. 

Beyond the revolving entrance door and the velvet curtain embracing it, I step straight into a cozy lounge featuring wood and leather furnishings and eclectic artworks unearthed, I’m informed later, in antique shops nationwide, all emblematic of the era in which Ives flourished. 

Columbia Hillen

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Here, courtesy of French architect Thomas Vidalenc, are vintage sofas in green, blue and tan, parquet floors, thick rugs with geometric patterns, ’50s furniture, low wooden tables and American paintings of the ‘70s.  A shelf is lined with vintage brass tea caddies, marble candle-holders, mini-busts and ornamental vases. There’s even a fireplace. A bar with a speckled grey and black counter bordered by potted wild banana plants, stone pillars and intricately carved wooden stools line one side of the room.

Columbia Hillen

It’s certainly a cozy place to relax. 

In contrast, the reception desk almost seems like an afterthought, tucked away as it is discreetly in a little side room.

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Columbia Hillen

My room, 305, a corner suite, featured a terrace with olive plants in pots, two chairs and a coffee table. Inside, a gleaming lacquered rosewood headboard is balanced by soft natural wool curtains. 

Columbia Hillen

Furnishings include a leather lounge chair in the middle of the room, a checkered sofa, a glass-topped coffee table, a stand-alone TV and an oak bureau with a built-in mini-bar. Abstract paintings adorn the walls and floor-to-ceiling windows permit an abundance of natural light. Interestingly, a kettle offers multi-temperature settings for tea-making. My bathroom features a bathtub with shower and a mosaic-tile floor and a marble sink on a vanity of rosewood, glass and steel. 

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Columbia Hillen

Dining is in the hotel’s ground-floor restaurant with a mirrored ceiling from which hang lines of balloon-like lamps. Classic in style with square wooden tables ribbed with metal, its mood is enhanced by a sofa with vibrant, multicolored cushions and abstract paintings on the walls. Seating is either on wood and leather chairs or banquette-style. A shelf displays a range of wooden sculptures and glass artifacts. 

Columbia Hillen

Guests can also enjoy alfresco meals, in an inner courtyard with a paved stone floor, wall heaters and decorative wood panels on the walls.

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Breakfast is continental buffet with some cooked dishes such as eggs Benedict, mixed-grills and avocado on toast and due to the influence of Chef Thiou (nee Apiradee Thirakomen) you can also start your day with Thai tea and crêpes in condensed milk. While I didn’t eat dinner there, the restaurant offers a selection of Thai dishes. As added relaxation, the hotel also has a sauna and dipping pool, gym and two treatment rooms in an underground spa.

Columbia Hillen

Interestingly, Bertrand, the owner, seems to have been in a restless purchasing mood over the last few years, having recently taken over two other hotels in the same neighborhood, namely the Château des Fleurs, and Hotel Balzac just down the street from Hotel Norman.

Columbia Hillen

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Together with his sisters, he also owns the renowned Parisian hotels, Saint James Paris and Relais Christine, as well as the high-end tea rooms, Maison Angelina. 

If you require an upscale hotel in a central Parisian location with easy access to shopping outlets, museums and art galleries, Hotel Norman may well be the place for you. 

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