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Why has America failed to broker a Middle East ceasefire?

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Why has America failed to broker a Middle East ceasefire?
BBC A treated image showing Benjamin Netanyahu in the foreground and Joe Biden in the backgroundBBC

A year ago, after the October 7 attacks and the start of Israel’s offensive in Gaza, Joe Biden became the first US president to visit Israel at a time of war. I watched him fix his gaze at the TV cameras after meeting Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the war cabinet in Tel Aviv, and tell the country: “You are not alone”. But he also urged its leadership not to repeat the mistakes an “enraged” America made after 9/11.

In September this year at the United Nations in New York, President Biden led a global roll call of leaders urging restraint between Israel and Hezbollah. Netanyahu gave his response. The long arm of Israel, he said, could reach anywhere in the region.

Ninety minutes later, Israeli pilots fired American-supplied “bunker buster” bombs at buildings in southern Beirut. The strike killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. It marked one of the most significant turning points in the year since Hamas unleashed its attack on Israel on 7 October.

Biden’s diplomacy was being buried in the ruins of an Israeli airstrike using American-supplied bombs.

I’ve spent the best part of a year watching US diplomacy close up, travelling in the press pool with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on trips back to the Middle East, where I worked for seven years up until last December.

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The single greatest goal for diplomacy as stated by the Biden administration has been to get a ceasefire for hostage release deal in Gaza. The stakes could barely be higher. A year on from Hamas smashing its way through the militarised perimeter fence into southern Israel where they killed more than 1,200 people and kidnapped 250, scores of hostages – including seven US citizens – remain in captivity, with a significant number believed to be dead. In Gaza, Israel’s massive retaliatory offensive has killed nearly 42,000 Palestinians, according to figures from the Hamas-run health ministry, while the territory has been reduced to a moonscape of destruction, displacement and hunger.

Thousands more Palestinians are missing. The UN says record numbers of aid workers have been killed in Israeli strikes, while humanitarian groups have repeatedly accused Israel of blocking shipments – something its government has consistently denied. Meanwhile, the war has spread to the occupied West Bank and to Lebanon. Iran last week fired 180 missiles at Israel in retaliation for the killing of Nasrallah, leader of the Iran-backed Hezbollah group. The conflict threatens to deepen and envelop the region.

Wins and losses

Covering the US State Department, I have watched the Biden administration attempt to simultaneously support and restrain Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. But its goal of defusing the conflict and brokering a ceasefire has eluded the administration at every turn.

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Biden officials claim US pressure changed the “shape of their military operations“, a likely reference to a belief within the administration that Israel’s invasion of Rafah in Gaza’s south was more limited than it otherwise would have been, even with much of the city now lying in ruins.

Before the Rafah invasion, Biden suspended a single consignment of 2,000lb and 500lb bombs as he tried to dissuade the Israelis from an all-out assault. But the president immediately faced a backlash from Republicans in Washington and from Netanyahu himself who appeared to compare it to an “arms embargo”. Biden has since partially lifted the suspension and never repeated it.

The State Department asserts that its pressure did get more aid flowing, despite the UN reporting famine-like conditions in Gaza earlier this year. “It’s through the intervention and the involvement and the hard work of the United States that we’ve been able to get humanitarian assistance into those in Gaza, which is not to say that this is… mission accomplished. It is very much not. It is an ongoing process,” says department spokesman Matthew Miller.

In the region, much of Biden’s work has been undertaken by his chief diplomat, Anthony Blinken. He has made ten trips to the Middle East since October in breakneck rounds of diplomacy, the visible side of an effort alongside the secretive work of the CIA at trying to close a Gaza ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas.

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But I have watched multiple attempts to close the deal being spiked. On Blinken’s ninth visit, in August, as we flew in a C-17 US military transporter on a trip across the region, the Americans became increasingly exasperated. A visit that started with optimism that a deal could be within reach, ended with us arriving in Doha where Blinken was told that the Emir of Qatar – whose delegation is critical in communicating with Hamas – was ill and couldn’t see him.

A snub? We never knew for sure (officials say they later spoke by phone), but the trip felt like it was falling apart after Netanyahu claimed he had “convinced” Blinken of the need to keep Israeli troops along Gaza’s border with Egypt as part of the agreement. This was a deal breaker for Hamas and the Egyptians. A US official accused Netanyahu of effectively trying to sabotage the agreement. Blinken flew out of Doha without having got any further than the airport. The deal was going nowhere. We were going back to Washington.

On his tenth trip to the region last month, Blinken did not visit Israel.

Superficial diplomacy?

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For critics, including some former officials, the US call for an end to the war while supplying Israel with at least $3.8bn (£2.9bn) of arms per year, plus granting supplemental requests since 7 October, has amounted either to a failure to apply leverage or an outright contradiction. They argue the current expansion of the war in fact marks a demonstration, rather than a failure, of US diplomatic policy.

“To say [the administration] conducted diplomacy is true in the most superficial sense in that they conducted a lot of meetings. But they never made any reasonable effort to change behaviour of one of the main actors – Israel,” says former intelligence officer Harrison J. Mann, a career US Army Major who worked in the Middle East and Africa section of the Defense Intelligence Agency at the time of the October 7th attacks. Mr Mann resigned earlier this year in protest at US support for Israel’s assault in Gaza and the number of civilians being killed using American weapons.

Allies of Biden flat-out reject the criticism. They point, for example, to the fact that diplomacy with Egypt and Qatar mediating with Hamas resulted in last November’s truce which saw more than 100 hostages released in Gaza in exchange for around 300 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. US officials also say the administration dissuaded the Israeli leadership from invading Lebanon much earlier in the Gaza conflict, despite cross border rocket fire between Hezbollah and Israel.

Senator Chris Coons, a Biden loyalist who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and who travelled to Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia late last year, says it’s critical to weigh Biden’s diplomacy against the context of the last year.

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“I think there’s responsibility on both sides for a refusal to close the distance, but we cannot ignore or forget that Hamas launched these attacks,” he says.

“He has been successful in preventing an escalation – despite repeated and aggressive provocation by the Houthis, by Hezbollah, by the Shia militias in Iraq – and has brought in a number of our regional partners,” he says.

Former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert says Biden’s diplomacy has amounted to an unprecedented level of support, pointing to the huge US military deployment, including aircraft carrier strike groups and a nuclear power submarine, he ordered in the wake of October 7.

But he believes Biden has been unable to overcome the resistance of Netanyahu.

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“Every time he came close to it, Netanyahu somehow found a reason not to comply, so the main reason for the failure of this diplomacy was the consistent opposition of Netanyahu,” says Olmert.

Olmert says a stumbling block for a ceasefire deal has been Netanyahu’s reliance on the “messianic” ultranationalists in his cabinet who prop up his government. They are agitating for an even stronger military response in Gaza and Lebanon. Two far-right ministers this summer threatened to withdraw support for Netanyahu’s government if he signed a ceasefire deal.

“Ending the war as part of an agreement for the release of hostages means a major threat to Netanyahu and he’s not prepared to accept it, so he’s violating it, he’s screwing it all the time,” he says.

The Israeli prime minister has repeatedly rejected claims he blocked the deal, insisting he was in favour of the American-backed plans and sought only “clarifications”, while Hamas continually changed its demands.

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A question of leverage

But whatever the shuttle diplomacy, much has turned on the relationship between the US president and Netanyahu. The men have known each other for decades, the dynamics have been often bitter, dysfunctional even, but Biden’s positions predate even his relationship with the Israeli prime minister.

Passionately pro-Israel, he often speaks of visiting the country as a young Senator in the early 1970s. Supporters and critics alike point to Biden’s unerring support for the Jewish state – some citing it as a liability, others as an asset.

Ultimately, for President Biden’s critics, his biggest failure to use leverage over Israel has been over the scale of bloodshed in Gaza. In the final year of his only term, thousands of protesters, many of them Democrats, have taken to American streets and university campuses denouncing his policies, holding “Genocide Joe” banners.

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Biden’s mindset, which underpins the administration’s position, was shaped at a time when the nascent Israeli state was seen as being in immediate existential peril, says Rashid Khalidi, the Edward Said Professor Emeritus of Modern Arab Studies at Columbia University in New York.

“American diplomacy has basically been, ‘whatever Israel’s war demands and requires we will give them to fight it’,” says Prof Khalidi.

“That means, given that this [Israeli] government wants an apparently unending war, because they’ve set war aims that are unattainable – [including] destroying Hamas – the United States is a cart attached to an Israeli horse,” he says.

He argues Biden’s approach to the current conflict was shaped by an outdated conception of the balance of state forces in the region and neglects the experience of stateless Palestinians.

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“I think that Biden is stuck in a much longer-term time warp. He just cannot see things such as… 57 years of occupation, the slaughter in Gaza, except through an Israeli lens,” he says.

Today, says Prof Khalidi, a generation of young Americans has witnessed scenes from Gaza on social media and many have a radically different outlook. “They know what the people putting stuff on Instagram and TikTok in Gaza have shown them,” he says.

Kamala Harris, 59, Biden’s successor as Democratic candidate in next month’s presidential election against Donald Trump, 78, doesn’t come with the same generational baggage.

However, neither Harris nor Trump has set out any specific plans beyond what is already in process for how they would reach a deal. The election may yet prove the next turning point in this sharply escalating crisis, but quite how is not yet apparent.

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Lead image credit: Getty

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New UK climate watchdog chief joins from energy trade group

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A former UK energy industry lobbyist has been appointed to the influential role of leading the government’s climate policy watchdog as it prepares to set a new legal limit on the country’s greenhouse gas emissions.

The Climate Change Committee said Emma Pinchbeck, head of trade body Energy UK, would take over in November, ahead of its publication of a new “carbon budget” next year for the 2038-42 period.

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The UK was the first major economy to set a legally binding target five years ago to reach net zero by 2050, but the committee has since advised bluntly and repeatedly that it was not moving fast enough.

The 38-year-old Pinchbeck represented the interests of Energy UK’s approximately 100 members across the heat, electricity, transport and tech sectors, which it said generated about 80 per cent of the UK’s power through wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, biomass and gas.

While it also represents some members involved in oil and gas extraction, UK Energy says it does not advocate for these parts of their business and agrees only to cover specific activities such as renewables.

The trade group said Pinchbeck had been a “powerful advocate” of the transition to clean energy. In the role, she also spoke in favour of burning biomass for power generation and promoted carbon capture, storage and utilisation, which some scientists and environmentalists believe is being promoted by the oil and gas industry to prolong fossil fuel production.

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The government announced £21.7bn in support spread for the country’s first carbon capture and storage projects last week, being developed by Italian oil group Eni, BP, Equinor and TotalEnergies. The programme will run for 25 years, relying on a mix of taxpayer funding and higher energy bills.

Pinchbeck also has experience in the non-profit sector as former head of climate change and energy at WWF-UK. But it was her private sector background that CCC interim chair Piers Forster, a professor of climate physics, said would help in assessing the UK’s plans to decarbonise energy.

The committee has been without a permanent head since its outspoken former chief, Chris Stark, stepped down in April. He then warned the UK was losing out on green investment because of the policy rollbacks under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Stark is now leading the new government’s “mission control” attempt to decarbonise the electricity system by 2030.

Chris Stark photographed in St James's Park in April 2024
Former CCC chief Chris Star is now leading the government’s ‘mission control’ attempt to decarbonise the electricity system by 2030 © Charlie Bibby/FT

Ed Miliband, UK energy secretary, said Pinchbeck was “well placed to advise and challenge government” on its net zero goals, ensuring it meets its climate commitments with “ambition and urgency”.

Within its first weeks in office, the Labour government also selected former Siemens UK chief executive Jürgen Maier to chair the £8.3bn state-owned GB Energy, which will own, manage and operate clean power projects and support carbon capture and hydrogen development.

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It also recently appointed the new UK climate envoy, Rachel Kyte, who has extensive experience in climate policy after working at the World Bank and as a professor at Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government.

Kyte’s appointment was the subject of opposition questions in parliament this week surrounding a donation by Quadrature Capital, the investment arm of a hedge fund group that funds the independent Quadrature Climate Foundation, where Kyte is co-chair of an advisory board.

Miliband said “all the proper processes were followed” and Kyte was esteemed for her climate leadership. QCF said it was focused on “funding and supporting science-led solutions to climate change”, adding that its donation was “values-based” and that it was “non-partisan and apolitical”.

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Where climate change meets business, markets and politics. Explore the FT’s coverage here.

Are you curious about the FT’s environmental sustainability commitments? Find out more about our science-based targets here

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The Ritz-Carlton, AMAALA, to open in Saudi’s Red Sea by 2025

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The Ritz-Carlton, AMAALA, to open in Saudi’s Red Sea by 2025

Marriott International and Red Sea Global (RSG), the developer behind the regenerative tourism destinations AMAALA and The Red Sea, will be partnering to open The Ritz-Carlton, AMAALA by 2025

Continue reading The Ritz-Carlton, AMAALA, to open in Saudi’s Red Sea by 2025 at Business Traveller.

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Two in three Post Office jobs could be scrapped in a cost-cutting drive

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Two in three Post Office jobs could be scrapped in a cost-cutting drive

THE POST Office could scrap two in three jobs in a cost-cutting drive.

Some of the estimated £200million savings will be used to improve sub-postmasters’ pay, it was reported last night.

The Post Office could scrap two in three jobs in a cost-cutting drive

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The Post Office could scrap two in three jobs in a cost-cutting driveCredit: EPA
Sub-postmasters will not be affected and neither will posties, employed by Royal Mail

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Sub-postmasters will not be affected and neither will posties, employed by Royal MailCredit: Alamy

A review — announced in the wake of the Horizon IT scandal — may see staff cut from 3,100 to around 1,000.

Roles at the London HQ could go.

Sub-postmasters, who run most of the 11,500 Post Office branches, will not be affected.

Similarly, posties – employed by Royal Mail – would not be affected.

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But grants to rural Post Offices could be cut, raising the risk of closures.

The Post Office said the priorities of its interim chairman are “remediation for post-masters affected by the IT scandal” and boosting their income.

Its recommendations were currently under discussion with the government.

More than 900 sub-postmasters were wrongly prosecuted based on faulty data.

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Royal Mail plans to cut 2nd-class deliveries to save £300m a year

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Pfizer chief Albert Bourla to meet activist investor Starboard Value

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Pfizer chief executive Albert Bourla plans to meet Starboard Value, said people familiar with the matter, as the activist investor’s $1bn stake in the pharmaceutical group puts pressure on its board to revive its share price.

Bourla and at least one other director will hold talks with Starboard next week, after it emerged this weekend the fund had taken a $1bn stake, equivalent to about 0.6 per cent of the $165bn company. The Financial Times previously reported the activist investor is calling for a strategy shift.

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While engagement between companies and activist investors is not unusual, the planned meeting shows Starboard’s demands are getting a hearing at the highest levels of the company. It has created an extensive slide deck on its turnaround plans but has yet to circulate it.

Starboard’s exact recommendations could not immediately be ascertained and the firm declined to comment. Pfizer did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Starboard’s campaign comes after the Covid-19 vaccine maker’s shares have sunk to below pre-pandemic levels. People briefed on the activist’s thinking said it believed Pfizer had been mismanaged as the pandemic receded, notably in spending its $92bn Covid windfall on a costly $70bn acquisition spree. Pfizer’s market value has roughly halved since its pandemic peak.

Starboard will be represented at next week’s meeting by its chief executive Jeff Smith and partner Patrick Sullivan, who runs its healthcare investments, said two people familiar with the matter. Pfizer’s lead independent director, Shantanu Narayen, is expected to accompany Bourla, one person said.

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In an unusual twist, two of Pfizer’s top former executives are working with Starboard. The FT on Monday reported Pfizer’s former chair and CEO Ian Read and its former finance chief Frank D’Amelio called at least four Pfizer directors to ask them to consider collaborating with the activist investor.

Line chart of Share price, $ showing Pfizer's stock has fallen below pre-pandemic levels

Read, who served as CEO for eight years before becoming executive chair, promoted Bourla to the top job. Read and D’Amelio’s involvement is a rare example of former executives collaborating with an activist investor to push for strategy or management changes.

Starboard’s investment in Pfizer is not its first brush with the healthcare sector. It unsuccessfully urged pharmaceutical manufacturer Bristol Myers Squibb to drop its $74bn acquisition of cancer drugmaker Celgene in 2019. The same year, it entered into an agreement to add four directors to the board of Cerner, a health tech company now known as Oracle Health.

Some analysts doubt Starboard can transform the valuation of Pfizer, which has already announced $5.5bn of cost cuts through till 2027 to help restore investor confidence.

Vamil Divan, an analyst at Guggenheim Securities, said in a note on Monday that many of his conversations have “focused on investors wondering if we could see a change in Pfizer’s management team”. While that was “certainly possible”, it is unclear what that would mean for the company’s dividend, an important support for the stock.

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Two investors told the FT on Monday they would be receptive to management changes.

Pfizer’s directors are in Ireland for tours of local manufacturing facilities and board meetings, with the main meeting scheduled for Wednesday.

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A Florida mobile home park is told to evacuate but some residents have nowhere to go

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A Florida mobile home park is told to evacuate but some residents have nowhere to go

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Homes knocked off their foundations, piles of wet carpet, wood and pipes rotting in the sun, and abandoned cars and trucks littering roads glazed with mud and blocked by debris.

With one of the most powerful hurricanes in a century barreling toward Florida on Tuesday, the Twin City mobile home park was already a scene of devastation because of Hurricane Helene.

Now, as Hurricane Milton stays on track to hit the state Wednesday, residents of Twin City say they’re unprepared for the double whammy of nearly back-to-back hurricanes.

While millions of Floridians living in the path of the storm were heeding urgent evacuation orders, a few holdouts were still hanging around the wreckage of the low-lying mobile home park.

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Twin City Mobile Home Park in Saint Petersburg, Fla., on Oct. 8, 2024. (Matt Lavietes / NBC News)

The Twin City mobile home park in St. Petersburg, Fla., on Tuesday.

Mark Prompakdee, a 71-year-old retiree who has lived in the park for five years with his older brother, said they survived Helene by packing everything they could into their minivan and camping out for two days in a nearby high school parking lot on higher ground.

He said they plan to do the same before Milton arrives because they have nowhere else to go and no family or friends to stay with.

“They’re saying, ‘Get out of here,’” Prompakdee said. “Where?”

Several of the homes in the park were deemed uninhabitable by local officials after Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida on Sept. 26. They were marked with signs that read “Unsafe” and “Do not enter or occupy” in bright red lettering.

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The home of Jesse Hancock, 39, and Ria Blaight, 34, was flooded by Helene’s surge, but unlike their neighbors, they have someplace to go — Blaight’s father’s house in nearby Pinellas Park.

Jesse Hancock and Ria Blaight tried to salvage what they could Tuesday from their flooded home in the Twin City mobile home park. (Matt Lavietes / NBC News)

Jesse Hancock and Ria Blaight tried to salvage what they could Tuesday from their flooded home in the Twin City mobile home park.

But Pinellas Park, just north of St. Petersburg, is also in a mandatory evacuation area. As Hancock and Blaight loaded a borrowed car with whatever belongings they could salvage from their wrecked home, they were still weighing the pros and cons of evacuating.

“You’re picking and pulling straws here,” Hancock said.

“Stay with your ship and stick with it or abandon ship and go somewhere else that might be worse,” Blaight said. “It’s a two-headed coin. Scary either way.”

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Walter Smutz, a disabled 47-year-old military veteran, said he and his wife have been sleeping in their cars since Helene flooded their mobile home. All the furniture inside was either destroyed or infested with maggots.

“Right now, I’m homeless and scared to death,” said Smutz, who returned to Twin City to salvage what he could before Milton hit. “I’m worried about getting on my feet. I just want a home. I don’t care what kind of home.”

Twin City Mobile Home Park in Saint Petersburg, Fla.,  (Matt Lavietes / NBC News)

Twin City mobile home park in St. Petersburg, Fla., on Tuesday.

Smutz said Lakeshore Management, the company that manages the mobile home park, deceived them about the potential for flooding when they rented the plot where they parked their home.

“When I bought this place a year ago, the guy scammed me,” Smutz said. “He lied to me about the floods and everything.”

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Smutz and other tenants also said Lakeshore Management is making them pay the $750 monthly plot rental fee, even though their homes are now uninhabitable.

An unidentified woman who answered the phone at the Twin City office said, “That’s not what’s happening,” when NBC News asked to speak to a representative for Lakeshore Management about the tenants’ complaints.

Officials at Lakeshore Management’s headquarters in Skokie, Illinois, did not respond to a request for comment.

Tenant Ninda Menegias, who has lived at the Twin City mobile home park for 11 years, said she reluctantly returned to the nearby hotel where she stayed when Helene came through.

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The home of Ninda Menegias, a Twin City resident who is staying at a nearby hotel to wait out Hurricane Milton. (Matt Lavietes / NBC News)

The home of Ninda Menegias, a Twin City resident who is staying at a nearby hotel to wait out Hurricane Milton.

“We had to get a boat to get out,” Menegias, 70, said by phone. “The water was about 4 feet. The water was in my home.”

After the floodwaters receded, Menegias said she went back to her home and camped out in the only semi-habitable room of her “castle,” a bedroom that stunk of mold.

That lasted for only a few days, as residents were ordered to evacuate again.

“It’s a mobile home, but I paid a lot of money,” she said, her voice cracking with emotion. “I lost everything. I don’t know what to do.”

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Matt Lavietes reported from St. Petersburg and Corky Siemaszko from New York City.

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com

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