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A food price-driven inflation spike may delay interest rate cuts by RBI, say economists- The Week

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A food price-driven inflation spike may delay interest rate cuts by RBI, say economists- The Week

Will it cut interest rates or not? That will be a key question when the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee meets next in December. Last time around, the MPC left the repo rate unchanged at 6.50 per cent, but chose to change its stance to neutral. That had sent signals that the central bank was perhaps positioning itself to start a rate cut cycle, even if shallow, in December. But, a resurgence in inflation may have thrown a spanner in the works.

The US Federal Reserve on November 7 cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points. This was on top of the outsized 50 bps rate cut in September. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank too have cut interest rates in recent months. The rate cuts in the West come at a time when supporting growth has gained priority amid escalating geopolitical tensions and cooling inflation.

In India too, slowdown signs have emerged, be it sluggish urban demand for fast-moving consumer goods or passenger vehicles. But, inflation remains a big worry. India’s CPI (consumer price index) inflation surged to a 14-month high of 6.2 per cent in October. Food prices spiking 10.87 per cent last month continues to fuel inflationary pressures. As the MPC meets next, will it continue to focus on inflation and keep interest rates unchanged or will its attention turn to the slowdown signs and in turn prompt a rate cut?

ALSO READ: RBI ‘neutral’ stance: Here’s what economists say about possible interest rate cuts in December

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“While the RBI’s change in stance from withdrawal of accommodation to neutral at its last MPC raised expectations of rate cuts in December 2024, inflation data of the past two months indicates that the RBI would hold rates. This is consistent with our view that rate cuts will begin only at the beginning of 2025,” pointed out Sujan Hajra, chief economist and executive director at Anand Rathi Shares.

Pranjul Bhandari, chief economist, India and Indonesia at HSBC, also believes RBI will leave interest rates unchanged in December.

“As the RBI makes its assessment of India’s growth-inflation dynamics for the upcoming December policy meeting, we find that a lower proportion of activity indicators are growing at a fast clip compared to a quarter ago, particularly in financial services and consumption-related sectors. Meanwhile, even as food prices remain elevated thus far, they could start falling in early 2025, at least going by food production and sowing estimates,” said Bhandari.

She feels the RBI could deliver the first rate cut in February 2025, by which time, it would have gained some confidence that the food price spike will drop.

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Economists say food inflation remains a major threat to headline CPI inflation and managing that will be crucial given its impact on household consumption budgets. Besides, monetary policy alone may not be enough to get food prices under control and may need more supply-side measures from the government.

As the fresh food harvest starts reaching the market, some of the pressure on food prices is likely to ease. Prospects for winter crop sowing are also positive after good monsoon rains this year. However, current trends suggest that CPI inflation may exceed RBI’s earlier projections in the October-March period this financial year and that may delay the start of a rate cut cycle, according to Rajani Sinha, chief economist at CAREEdge Ratings.

“We anticipate that headline inflation will fall below 5 per cent by the fourth quarter of 2024-2025, driven by a moderation in food inflation. This would create an opportunity for the MPC to consider a 25 bps reduction in policy rates in February meeting,” said Sinha, who now sees CPI averaging 4.8 per cent for the full year ending March 2025. The RBI has earlier forecast CPI inflation to average 4.5 per cent this financial year.

CRISIL’s chief economist Dharmakirti Joshi too expects the MPC to maintain a status quo in the December meeting.

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“In our base case, we expect food inflation to ease this fiscal as kharif sowing has been healthy. Vegetable prices can correct sharply when fresh stocks enter the market. Accordingly, we expect the MPC to cut rates towards the end of this fiscal,” he noted.

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ECB cut rates to avoid damage to economy, meeting minutes show

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EU flags in front of the European Central Bank’s headquarters in Frankfurt

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The European Central Bank cut interest rates last month to avert unnecessary damage to the economy, with policymakers taking the view they could pause a December cut if activity picked up, minutes of the meeting show.

The central bank’s governing council gave unanimous support to October’s decision to cut rates by 0.25 percentage points to 3.25 per cent, arguing that “the disinflationary trend was getting stronger” and that it was important to avoid “harming the real economy by more than was necessary”.

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The account, published on Thursday, suggests hawks on the council were convinced to back the decision by framing it as an exercise in “risk management” that could potentially offset the need to cut again, or by as much, at the December meeting if the outlook for Eurozone growth improved.

If a slowdown in the eurozone’s economic activity and an unexpected dip in inflation proved to be temporary, “a decision to cut rates now could, ex post, turn out as merely having brought forward a December cut”, the minutes said, adding: “As such, there was little risk associated with cutting.”

A few members initially wanted to wait until December to cut but were won over by “the precautionary risk management case for cutting now”.

Concerns over growth centred on the weakness in consumption, but policymakers also pointed to the risks of “an escalation in trade tensions between major economies” that could hit Eurozone exports.

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Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING, said ECB members appeared to have acted on “a queasy gut feeling” and “the fear of falling behind the curve”, despite some scepticism about whether inflation had really been tamed.

Data released since the ECB last met has shown Eurozone inflation rose from 1.7 per cent to 2 per cent in October, slightly higher than analysts had forecast.

Activity has also proved stronger than the central bank was expecting, with figures released on Thursday confirming GDP grew by 0.4 per cent in the third quarter, compared with the ECB’s forecast of 0.2 per cent growth.

However, market pricing suggests investors are still factoring in the possibility of a big rate cut from the ECB in December to shore up growth.

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“With the results of the US election, risks to the Eurozone growth outlook have clearly shifted to the downside,” Brzeski said, adding that “if the ECB’s gut feeling doesn’t change”, the decision in December would not be about whether to cut but whether to cut by 25 or 50 basis points.

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Save Up to £1,500 on Council Tax—Check Eligibility Now

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What is the Average Credit Score in the UK

Households Could Save Up to £1,500 a Year with Council Tax Reduction—Check If You’re Eligible

UK households are being urged to check their council tax status, as many could be missing out on valuable reductions worth up to £1,500 per year. With a range of discounts and exemptions available, a quick review could uncover significant annual savings and potentially lead to refunds on overpayments.

Could You Be in the Wrong Council Tax Band?

In England and Scotland, council tax is based on property bands, which often determine how much each household pays. However, thousands of properties may be incorrectly banded, leading to overpayments. If your home is in the wrong band, you could not only be entitled to a lower bill but also a backdated refund. Some households have saved considerable amounts after having their council tax re-evaluated.

To check if your property’s banding is accurate, compare it to similar properties in your area using government websites. A successful revaluation could mean ongoing savings and refunds totaling thousands of pounds.

Council Tax Reductions Worth £1,500 a Year

Certain circumstances can qualify households for reductions worth up to £1,500 annually, helping to ease financial pressures. Some of the most common council tax discounts include:

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  • Single-Person Discount: Households with only one adult resident can receive a 25% discount on their council tax.
  • Student Exemption: Full-time students are typically exempt from council tax, potentially saving hundreds per year.
  • Low-Income and Benefits-Based Discounts: Many councils offer reductions for low-income households or those receiving specific benefits.
  • Disability Adjustments: Homes adapted for a resident with disabilities may qualify for additional reductions.

Residents are encouraged to check with their local council to explore these options and determine eligibility for these reductions, which can be life-changing for households seeking financial relief.

How to Claim Your Potential Savings

Checking eligibility for council tax reductions is simple and could reveal savings of up to £1,500 annually. Start by confirming your property’s band and exploring relevant discounts. You can contact your local council directly or use online resources to help identify potential savings.

If eligible, you may receive a lower annual bill moving forward and possibly a refund for past overpayments. Taking a few minutes to check could bring substantial relief, ensuring households only pay what they owe.

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Berlusconi family company steps up campaign against Germany’s ProSieben

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The late Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi

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The television empire founded by Silvio Berlusconi has stepped up its campaign against German broadcaster ProSieben, calling for the company to “act faster” and make “radical choices” amid speculation that it is gearing up for a hostile takeover.

MediaForEurope (MFE), which is majority owned by the family of the late Italian prime minister and is ProSieben’s largest shareholder, responded to the company’s quarterly results on Thursday with a public call for more growth, less debt and a faster disposal of assets outside its core entertainment business.

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“The current economic situation of the advertising market in Germany increases the sense of urgency,” said Marco Giordani, MFE’s chief financial officer. “We therefore ask the supervisory board and the executive board to act faster, accelerating change and efficiency measures also through radical choices, without further delays.”

With a 29.9 per cent stake in the company, MFE is a fraction below the 30 per cent threshold for making a mandatory takeover offer under German law. Asked if it was planning a takeover bid, the company declined to comment.

ProSieben did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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Celebrating 21 years of the SOS Africa Children’s Charity

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Celebrating 21 years of the SOS Africa Children’s Charity

It all began 21 years ago, when 18-year-old UK gap student Matt Crowcombe decided to donate his pocket money towards a South African child’s education. Over the years following, the small seed planted by this simple act of kindness has grown into a thriving charitable organisation transforming the lives of children across the Western Cape and beyond.

This week SOS Africa marked this milestone anniversary by hosting a birthday party to remember at its recently opened Gordon’s Bay Education Centre. Its VIP guests were staff and children from the charity’s 4 education centres from across the region. From the 6 matric students just weeks away from graduation to the Grade R students who started in January, all joined together to celebrate, united as members of the SOS Africa family.

“It was an emotional afternoon shared with many of the wonderful people who have each played an invaluable part in SOS Africa’s journey here in the Western Cape. Each SOS Africa child and staff member has their own remarkable story, they have fought against the odds to get to where they are today and I couldn’t be prouder of them.

I often reflect on the early days of SOS Africa when we walked the very first sponsored child to his first day at school. Back then I had no idea that, in that moment, a wonderful organisation had been born. I feel truly blessed to have a career which enables me to bear witness to both human kindness and determination each and every day.” Matt Crowcombe (Founder, SOS Africa)

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Combining their favourite activities, the SOS kids feasted on an epic South African braai, played party games together, jumped for joy on the bouncy castle and cooled off in the swimming pool. Meanwhile the high school children finished off the afternoon relaxing at Gordon’s Bay’s iconic beach. It was a truly memorable occasion filled with broad smiles and the relentless sounds of joy and laughter from adults and children alike, but don’t just take our word for it…

“I enjoyed every minute; we were all siblings coming together and enjoying each other’s company and celebrating together.” Meyah (Grade 10, SOS Africa Gordon’s Bay)

“I had lots of fun! We ate nice food and made lots of friends with children from the other centres.” Relton (Grade 3, SOS Africa Elgin)

“I felt like I was rediscovering my childhood magic – I felt young, wild and free!” Kim (Grade 12, SOS Africa Gordon’s Bay)

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“The highlight of my day was hanging out with all the other SOS kids; they were all so friendly! I really enjoyed swimming and the games we played. It was so much fun!” Chrisna (Grade 4, SOS Africa Grabouw)

With the future of the organisation bright, SOS Africa Founder Matt would like to give a final word of thanks to the charity’s many sponsors, donors and fundraisers across the world:

“One of the highlights of my job is communicating with our wonderful supporters who constantly go above and beyond to provide life-changing opportunities for the SOS kids. With each head-earned donation, they take a leap of faith in the hope of making a difference to the lives of children who they have often never met. Thank you for always believing in us – these smiles wouldn’t be possible without you!” Matt Crowcombe (Founder, SOS Africa)

Click here to Sponsor a child in South Africa.

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Aviva wealth net flows rise to £7.7bn as adviser platform grows

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Aviva wealth net flows rise to £7.7bn as adviser platform grows

Aviva has reported that wealth net flows rose to £7.7bn in the third quarter of the year as demand for its adviser platform grows.

Platform net flows were up 76% to £3.1bn, reflecting strong growth in its financial adviser platform business, including Succession Wealth and Direct Wealth.

Aviva said in a trading update today (14 November) that it has achieved another quarter of “strong delivery and profitable growth” across all areas the business.

Protection sales increased by 44% following the completion of the AIG UK protection acquisition in April. The group’s general insurance premiums also rose by 15% to £9.1bn.

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Retirement sales are up 67% to £6.1bn, driven by higher demand in the bulk purchase annuity market.

Amanda Blanc, group chief executive, said: “Quarter after quarter, we are delivering consistently superior results and growing Aviva, particularly in the capital-light businesses. General insurance premiums are up 15%, and wealth net flows of £7.7bn are 21% higher, reflecting continued growth in workplace pensions and strong demand from our financial adviser platform business.

“Aviva’s large and growing customer base is a major advantage, contributing to our excellent performance. Over the last four years we have increased customer numbers by 1.2m to 19.6m. We now have five million UK customers with more than one policy and, as the UK’s leading diversified insurer, the potential to grow this further is huge.

“Aviva is financially strong, trading well each quarter, and has significant opportunities for further growth. We are confident about the outlook for the rest of 2024 and beyond, growing the dividend and achieving the Group’s financial targets.”

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Disney-Reliance Indian media giant says TV ‘is not dead’ following $8.5bn merger

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Jio Star’s vice-chair Uday Shankar

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The head of Disney and Reliance Industries’ newly merged $8.5bn Indian entertainment titan plans to invest and “revitalise” television in the world’s most populous country even as western media organisations increasingly see it as a dying medium.

Uday Shankar, vice-chair of Jio Star — the freshly formed company whose merger was completed on Thursday — said traditional television revenue could experience “significant double-digit growth within the next several years” on the back of fresh investment in innovative content ranging from dramas to soaps.

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“There is this whole narrative that television is dead and it’s all about streaming,” Shankar told the Financial Times in Mumbai in his first interview since the combination was approved by India’s regulators. “Television in this country for sure is not dead.”

While lagging growth in online streaming, Shankar pointed to a still robust linear pay-TV industry as more Indians steadily join the middle class.

EY predicts TV revenue in India, from subscribers and advertising, will increase by 10 per cent to $9bn in the three years through to 2026, while TV ownership will climb at a similar pace to reach 202mn sets.

“A large number of people are coming into the economic mainstream every year,” Shankar said. “One of the aspirational items of consumption that they acquire, or they want to acquire, is a TV.”

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Shankar’s comments came as he outlined his plans after Disney and Reliance, the conglomerate run by Asia’s wealthiest man Mukesh Ambani that spans petrochemicals, retail and telecoms, agreed earlier this year to combine their Indian entertainment assets.

The combined entity has more than 100 television stations and more than 50mn streaming subscribers.

“It’s a monster merger . . . there is no competition,” said Shankar, a media industry veteran who will run the company, which is chaired by Ambani’s wife, Nita. “We have to reinvent the market and make it much bigger.”

The joint venture came together earlier this year after Disney battled to gain traction in India’s huge cricket and film markets, which have both tempted and thwarted global media majors who have struggled with highly cost-conscious audiences and fierce local competition.

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After Disney acquired Star India in 2019 from Fox, the business became a financial drag. Internal debate swirled on whether to exit the country entirely, particularly after Ambani’s Reliance won the streaming rights to the wildly popular Indian Premier League short-format cricket tournament.

Jio Star’s vice-chair Uday Shankar
Jio Star’s vice-chair Uday Shankar: ‘Dominance in sports is highly overrated’ © Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg

The new Jio Star, formed from these lossmaking media businesses, aims to hit profitability within five years. Investment bank Jefferies has compared its control over Indian sports rights to that of ESPN in the US and Sky Sports in the UK.

The media group, which has a roughly 35 per cent market share in TV, won over competition authorities after promising to shed a handful of regional TV channels and not bundle advertisements across its cricket portfolio or to raise rates exponentially.

Shankar said that “dominance in sports is highly overrated” and criticism of Disney and Reliance’s hold was “somewhat uninformed because sports rights in this country are awarded to you for a frighteningly short period of time — it’s anything from three to five years”.

Other Indian media houses have also attempted to downplay the industry impact of the merger.

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Punit Goenka, chief executive of Zee Entertainment, whose long-planned tie-up with Sony would have created a $10bn rival to Jio Star before it acrimoniously collapsed earlier this year, said he did not expect to see much change after competing with the duo previously as independent companies.

“Their entire strategy is sports-focused whereas our strategy is completely entertainment-focused and, therefore, I do not think that we are really competing in that space or that segment,” he said on an earnings call last month.

“They may have a little bit more leverage on the advertising dollars that they can command given that they may have a significantly higher market share.”

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