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Battle for Latino voters intensifies amid population’s shift right

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This is an on-site version of the US Election Countdown newsletter. You can read the previous edition here. Sign up for free here to get it on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Email us at electioncountdown@ft.com

Good morning and welcome to US Election Countdown. Today let’s talk about:

  • The fight for Latino voters

  • Google’s future under a Trump presidency

  • Inflation hanging over Harris in Michigan

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are racing to shore up support among Latino voters, a key constituency in the swing states of Arizona and Nevada.

Both candidates will visit the two states — where Latinos make up more than 20 per cent of the population — in the coming days. Harris will take part in a Latino-focused town hall tonight on Univision, while Trump will do the same next week. Latinos make up 15 per cent of the US electorate — double their share in 2000.

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The US’s growing Latino demographic was once reliably Democratic, but it has drifted right in recent years. Pollsters say this is a result of voters’ economic concerns and growing disillusionment with the Democratic party’s leadership and policies.

Mark Jones, chair in Latin American studies at Rice University, said Harris was walking a tightrope as she wooed voters in the Midwest and Latino voters in the south-west, especially on immigration, a topic on which she has taken a stance to the right of Biden.

“The difficulty for Harris is she has to avoid any sort of messaging to the Latino community that could be counterproductive among white working-class voters and in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin,” he said.

Earlier this week, the Harris campaign launched an “Hombres for Harris” initiative to court Latino men, who have been attracted to Trump’s strongman rhetoric and economic ideas.

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Latino support for the vice-president currently lags Biden’s figure from four years ago: an NBC News/Telemundo poll last month found 54 per cent of Latinos backed Harris, while Biden took 59 per cent of the bloc’s vote in 2020.

Campaign clips: the latest election headlines

Behind the scenes

The US Department of Justice said on Tuesday that it might seek the break-up of Google to end its monopoly on search engines, a move that is unprecedented in modern US corporate history.

The US government tried to break up Microsoft in 2000, but that ruling was ultimately overturned on appeal and the tech giant settled with the business-friendly George W Bush administration.

This Google antitrust saga will be long and filled with appeals, meaning the election could impact the final outcome.

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John Kwoka, an economics professor at Northeastern University, told the FT’s Stefania Palma that DoJ officials could “go soft” in a potential appeals process, since Trump was unpredictable and Harris seemed open to a milder antitrust policy than her boss. But, he added:

Big Tech doesn’t have the deference it did five years ago from either party, so . . . some version of this will probably go ahead.

A second Trump administration might not want to undermine the Google case since it originated during the Republican’s first term. Overall, Trump might not threaten Biden’s tough antitrust policy since a new generation of populist conservatives such as his running mate JD Vance have praised Washington’s aggressive stance. Big Tech has also drawn bipartisan anger in Congress.

On Capitol Hill, progressive Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez yesterday promised an “out and out brawl” should Harris axe Federal Trade Commission chair Lina Khan at the behest of Democratic donors, who has spearheaded the Biden administration’s antitrust fight.

Datapoints

Harris has a slim lead in Michigan. But she continues to be dogged by inflation, which has left its mark on voters in the crucial battleground state [free to read].

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Michigan is part of the so-called blue wall that was key to Biden’s 2020 victory. He won the state by 154,188 votes, or 2.8 percentage points. And Trump has further fed the economic discontent among the electorate while campaigning in Michigan.

Bill DeJong, owner of Alger Hardware and Rental outside of Grand Rapids, told the FT’s Colby Smith that he was “not 100 per cent there” on voting for Trump again. He didn’t like the former president’s personality or plans to deport immigrants.

But in 20 years running his store, he’d never seen prices rise the way they had in recent years, and blamed some of that on Biden’s stimulus spending:

Prior to Covid, if I had 10 items in a week’s order that I would have to raise the price for, that was a lot. During Covid, it went to three or four pages with 50 items on each. Things aren’t going up as fast any more, but I don’t think anything is coming down.”

Nelson Sanchez, chief executive of RoMan Manufacturing, said his business was also feeling the pinch, which he blamed on slow consumer demand and less business from the automotive industry.

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“We were firing on all cylinders, and then in January, it’s like somebody flipped a switch,” said Sanchez. It forced him to cut his workforce.

The vice-president leads Trump by 1.2 percentage points in Michigan, according to the FT’s poll tracker.

Viewpoints

  • Economist Burton Malkiel thinks tax proposals coming from both Republicans and Democrats “make little sense and would upend the principles of a fair and efficient tax system”. 

  • Screenwriter and journalist Gabriel Sherman shares the wild inside story of the Trump biopic The Apprentice.

  • We’re moving away from democracy and towards “emocracy”, in which policy debates are driven by emotions rather than evidence, writes political scientist Catherine De Vries.

  • Volatile foreign policy is undermining the US as world leaders wait out the current president until another comes along that’s more to their liking, argues Janan Ganesh. 

  • Martin Wolf explains why he thinks Trump’s trade policies would hurt the world.

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Florida surveys Hurricane Milton’s wreckage

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Rescue operations were under way in Florida on Thursday as officials sought to assess the damage inflicted by Hurricane Milton as it crossed the state overnight, triggering widespread flooding and leaving millions without power.

Florida governor Ron DeSantis on Thursday morning said state search and rescue teams were engaged in 125 active missions, with 48 people successfully rescued from torrential floodwater and destroyed buildings.

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The Tampa Bay area was spared the catastrophic storm surge that was feared, although Sarasota County — where Milton made landfall as a category 3 storm — encountered a surge of up to 10 feet in places.

“What we can say is the storm was significant, but thankfully, this was not the worst-case scenario,” DeSantis said.

Tampa mayor Jane Castor on Thursday said “one of the blessings” was that the city avoided the predicted storm surge. “That saved a lot,” she said.

By early Thursday, wind speeds had reduced to 90mph, and Milton dropped to a category one hurricane as it crossed central Florida towards the Atlantic Ocean.

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Rescuers in a boat in flooded area of Clearwater, Florida
Rescuers in a flooded area of Clearwater, Florida. State search and rescue teams were engaged in 125 active missions © AP
Toppled houses in Bradenton Beach on Anna Maria Island, Florida
Toppled homes on Anna Maria Island, Florida © AP

More than 3.4mn homes and businesses were without power in the state by 11am local time on Thursday, according to PowerOutage.us, which tracks utility reports across the US.

More than 2,000 flights around the US were cancelled because of the storm, most of them connecting to Orlando, Tampa, Palm Beach, Miami and Southwest Florida International Airport, said FlightAware, an airline tracking service.

Four deaths were recorded after tornadoes formed in St Lucie county on Florida’s east coast, according to county spokesperson Erick Gill. The county did not have a mandatory evacuation order in place. “We did not expect to see the tornado activity that we saw yesterday,” he said.

Milton is the second hurricane to hit the southern US in a fortnight. It comes after Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc across several south-eastern states last month, killing more than 225 people and destroying roads across western North Carolina.

Economists at Citigroup estimated Hurricane Helene alone would likely drag down monthly jobs growth by at least tens of thousands of positions, a number that could swell above 100,000 when combined with the aftermath of Hurricane Milton.

Additional reporting by Colby Smith in Washington and Attracta Mooney in London

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Three tips cheap and fun tips for hosting an autumn games night

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Three tips cheap and fun tips for hosting an autumn games night

MAKE the most of the longer autumn evenings by hosting a games night.

It’s a great fun activity for friends or all the family and gets the grey matter and competitive juices going.

Three tips cheap and fun tips for hosting an autumn games night

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Three tips cheap and fun tips for hosting an autumn games nightCredit: Getty

Plus, you can keep the evening cheap and cheerful with these tips.

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GAME ON: Trying to explain complicated rules can quickly suck the fun out of an evening so stick to simple and easy to understand options.

Cards Against Humanity is a great group game, but if you’ve played that one too many times, try something new.

Herd Mentality is great fun. All players have to try to write down the same answer as others in the group — get it for £13.16 at onbuy.com.

READ MORE MONEY SAVING TIPS

Or Exploding Kittens, £18 from Argos, is a strategic game of Russian Roulette that is easy to learn.

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And why not give an old-fashioned family game a new spin?

Download Charades! For Kids — the basic version is free — and a word will pop up on your phone screen through the app.

Each player holds the phone to their head so the others can see the word but they can’t and tries to guess it within a minute, based on clues from everyone else. The time limit can be changed

QUIZ-TASTIC: Putting together a quiz is a fab way to get the competitive spirit going in a group and you don’t need to buy any sets to get started.

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Give each person coming a theme — say sport, or TV — and ask them to create five or ten questions on it, then everyone takes a turn as quizmaster for their round.

FOOD AND DRINK: To avoid being stuck in the kitchen all evening, ask your pals to bring a dish each to share, plus a drink.

Or throw a few pizzas in the oven for an easy catering option.

You can take turns to host among the group — this also gives everyone a chance to challenge any victors to a rematch.

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  • All prices on page correct at time of going to press. Deals and offers subject to availability.

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No one but Moscow gains from Polish-Ukrainian tensions

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The writer is editor-in-chief of the Polish weekly Kultura Liberalna and currently a senior fellow at the Zentrum Liberale Moderne in Berlin

In 2012, the eyes of Europe were on Poland and Ukraine as the two countries jointly hosted the European Championship football tournament. Warsaw was even keen to present itself as Kyiv’s informal ambassador to western Europe. The mental map of Europe was to move eastward.

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Polish and Ukrainian confidence about the future did not last long. In 2014, Russia attacked Ukraine, an act of aggression that cut through the region’s post-cold war optimism. Donetsk, one of eight cities that hosted the Euro matches, is occupied by Russia. The solidarity has shifted to a war footing.

Poland and Ukraine have come a long way in more than two years: from spontaneous camaraderie to a series of misunderstandings. I read this as a sign of the wider geopolitical change in the region. The reasons for the Polish-Ukrainian arguments are structural and will not easily go away. Moreover, Ukraine’s aspirations to join the EU and Nato may intensify them.

Only recently, a sharp dispute was said to have arisen in Kyiv between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Polish foreign minister Radosław Sikorski. According to media reports, which have not been denied, Zelenskyy demanded, among other things, the delivery of MiG-29 fighter jets. In turn, Sikorski demanded a solution to the problem of the exhumation of some tens of thousands of Poles murdered by Ukrainians in the Volhynian massacre during the second world war.

The ensuing non-diplomatic brawl was only one link in a chain of acrimonious incidents. In July, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, Poland’s deputy prime minister and defence minister, declared that Ukraine could not be admitted to the EU until Warsaw and Kyiv resolved the issue of Volhynia. Later, the atmosphere grew more heated after Sikorski, in a closed discussion, was said to have aired the possibility of placing Crimea under a UN mandate with the prospect of a referendum on the territory’s status in the distant future. In turn, a former head of the Ukrainian foreign ministry, during a recent meeting in Poland, was tempted to make ambiguous statements that could have been interpreted as questioning Poland’s borders.

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These frictions are all the more surprising given the result of last year’s parliamentary elections in Poland. After eight years, the national populist Law and Justice (PiS) party was replaced in power by a coalition led by Donald Tusk, a former premier who had embodied Polish-Ukrainian friendship by helping to organise the Euro 2012 event. The past few weeks prove that the war is changing us all, Poles and Ukrainians alike. So what is happening?

First, the Polish government is operating under post-populist conditions. There is no automatic return to the old days. Tusk’s coalition is trying to decrease the nationalistic egoism with which the PiS government saturated society. But his strategy of moving the electorate away from the national populists is proceeding slowly and cautiously. It is like serving mild mayonnaise after eight years of spicy mustard.

In practice, this means that the Tusk government is not jettisoning all aspects of foreign policy as conducted in the PiS era. It exhibits a certain intransigence towards foreign partners, including Ukraine. This is best understood as part of the process of Poland’s transition from populism to liberal democracy.

Second, compared with 2012, the war brought an end to the era of the “junior partner” in bilateral relations. To the world’s surprise, Ukraine not only stopped Vladimir Putin’s blitzkrieg, but dared to send troops into Russian territory. It is building global relations without intermediaries. The Ukrainian army is one of the most battle-tested in Europe. In the matter of new weapons such as drones, it is Poland that could learn a lot from Ukraine.

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When peace comes, Ukraine will claim a greater role in the region. We are witnessing a geopolitical shift in eastern Europe. Kyiv wants to join Nato and the EU and to play an important role. For Ukrainian politicians, there are areas on the horizon in which reliance on foreign aid may give way to competition. In this context, they feel empowered to address the politics of historical memory more uncompromisingly.

In the meantime, all too often politicians in both countries recently have engaged in a kind of competitive verbal bidding — apparently to fill an intellectual vacuum in front of their citizens. “Where two fight, the third benefits” is the conventional saying. Moscow has not ceased to be a threat to the region. Unfortunately, recent wrangles prove that such geopolitical clichés, however true they may be, are quickly forgotten by some politicians.

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Legal & General partners with advice firm on MPS range

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Legal & General partners with advice firm on MPS range

Legal & General’s asset management division has partnered with Blue Sky Financial Planning to deliver its model portfolio service proposition.

As part of the collaboration, L&G will provide a range of multi-asset solutions for Blue Sky’s clients across the UK.

It will also manage the rebalancing of the model portfolios to ensure that investments remain aligned with Blue Sky clients’ risk profiles.

These portfolios will include a completion portfolio, which contains a selection of best-in-class active managers ,as well as L&G’s in-house funds.

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L&G will also provide wrap around services.

These include supporting Blue Sky for end client updates on strategy and regular investment updates from L&G’s asset allocation and distribution teams.

L&G will take on the management of risk and mandatory due diligence required, as well as looking after compliance and reporting functions.

Meanwhile, Blue Sky will focus on delivering financial advice for their clients.

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The partnership builds on the momentum of L&G’s MPS business, which first launched three years ago.

With over 50 clients and partners, the MPS offering is now available across 12 of the major platforms, including Aegon, Quilter and Transact.

The core MPS range is made up of 21 portfolios, across three investment styles – index, blended and ESG – as well as seven different risk profiles.

The L&G proposition also includes a platform programme and adviser hub that can be white labelled to suit adviser needs.

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Head of UK wholesale, Legal & General Asset Manager, Ben Cherrington, said: “L&G has made considerable progress with the growth of our MPS business, welcoming new clients, partners and platforms in recent months.

“Our combination of scale and investment expertise means we are well positioned to offer clients like Blue Sky tailored and robust investment propositions at a competitive price.”

Blue Sky Financial Planning CEO, Gary Neild, added: “We are delighted to further strengthen our relationship with Legal & General’s Asset Manager.

“Over the years we have enjoyed a healthy and respectful working relationship which has undoubtedly, benefitted our clients.

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“The prospect of being able to offer our clients a bespoke, tailored model portfolio service with one of the largest asset managers in the world is exciting.”

The model portfolios will be managed by Francis Chua, alongside L&G’s Asset Allocation team which is made up of 40 investment professionals.

The team has established a dedicated risk management framework and governance committee to ensure that portfolios remain on track.

They will work in partnership with the solutions team, which oversees £200bn of institutional client portfolios.

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Blue Sky is an employee-owned chartered financial planning firm based in the South-West of England.

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‘Lighter touch’ process for dismissals planned under UK workers’ bill

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UK employees who are still on probation will receive a lower level of compensation for unfair dismissal under proposals set out by the Labour government as part of its sweeping overhaul of employment law.

A provision giving workers protection against unfair dismissal from their first day in a job is the most contentious element of a wide-ranging employment rights bill published on Thursday, presented by ministers as a once in a generation upgrade of workers’ rights.

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About a third of the UK’s workforce have been in their current job for less than two years and could benefit from the new right, which Daniel Pollard, a partner at the law firm Charles Russell Speechlys, described as “the most radical change to unfair dismissal law since it was first instructed in 1971”.

But after fierce lobbying from business groups, which argue the policy will put a freeze on hiring, the government has conceded that employers will be able to follow a “lighter touch” process, if they determine a recruit is not right for the job over the course of their probation.   

Details of how a statutory probation process will work have yet to be decided, and will be set out in regulation and a code of conduct after the bill becomes law. But proposals outlined on Thursday pointed to a significant softening of the original policy. 

The government said in a “next steps” document, published alongside the bill, that its preference would be for a nine-month statutory probation period — longer than the three- to six-month periods that many employers currently operate.

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Kate Bell, assistant general secretary at the Trades Union Congress, said that making sure employers followed a fair process when they dismissed an employee would be more important than the length of probation

But the government will also “consult on what a compensation regime for successful claims during the probation period will be, with consideration given to tribunals not being able to award the full compensatory damages currently available”.

Ministers are nervous that the new right could lead to a surge in claims to employment tribunals that are already overburdened, with waiting lists of up to two years for a hearing.

The next steps document made it clear the government is seeking to deter people from pursuing shaky claims.

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But a principle that workers with a shorter tenure should not qualify for the same level of compensation as those with longer tenures will be controversial with unions, which have campaigned for “day one rights”.

Darren Newman, a consultant on employment law, said there were fears that even a “light touch” process for dismissing employees during probation could “cause chaos”, as HR departments became “bogged down in the technicalities of the procedure”.  

But limiting compensation during probation periods would be “a surprising move” given that earlier versions of Labour’s plans included proposals to lift statutory caps on tribunal awards, he noted.

The maximum award a tribunal can make for unfair dismissal is whichever is lower out of £115,115 or a year’s gross pay. But tribunals already take into account length of service when calculating compensation, and “regularly . . . award zero compensation”, Newman said.

Caspar Glyn, chair of the Employment Lawyers’ Association, said the “lighter touch” process could amount to “bringing a day one right in through the front door and smuggling it out through the back door” for employees dismissed on performance grounds.

Yet it would still be a “sea change” in protection for recent hires facing dismissal as part of a collective redundancy round, he noted.

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DWP reveals up to 760,000 families missing out on pension credit worth £3,900 a year – see if you can claim

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DWP reveals up to 760,000 families missing out on pension credit worth £3,900 a year - see if you can claim

HUNDRED of thousands of families are missing out on vital pension credit payments worth up to £3,900 annually, according to new figures from the Department for Work and Pensions.

The latest statistics reveal that up to 760,000 families entitled to pension credit did not claim it during the financial year ending in 2023.

DWP statistics have revealed up to 760,000 families are missing out on pension credit

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DWP statistics have revealed up to 760,000 families are missing out on pension credit

This is a slight improvement from the previous year when around 870,000 families were eligible but didn’t take up the benefit.

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Pension credit, a means-tested benefit designed to top up the income of the poorest pensioners, is becoming increasingly important as it is now linked to other crucial support.

In particular, those claiming pension credit are eligible for the winter fuel payment, which has become more restrictive following recent government changes.

The benefit goes to those who’ve reached State Pension age, which is currently 66, whose weekly income is less than £201.05 if you’re single, or £306.85 for couples.

Those who have a higher income may still be eligible if they have a higher income but have others costs like housing, a disability, or even savings.

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Claiming Pension Credit can also unlock extra help, including, a free TV licence if you’re over 75, help with council tax and support with household costs such as ground rent.

A surge in pension credit applications was observed after Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced in July that the winter fuel payment would only be available to pensioners receiving pension credit or other means-tested benefits.

Moment Martin Lewis slams ‘you’re taking money from UK’s poorest pensioners’ in fiery clash with cabinet minister on GMB

This change, aimed at addressing a £22billion deficit in public finances, is expected to reduce the number of recipients of the £300 winter fuel allowance from 11.4million to just 1.5million.

Despite the recent uptick in claims, a staggering £1.5billion worth of pension credit went unclaimed last year.

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This is a slight improvement from the £2billion left unclaimed in the previous year, but it highlights the ongoing issue of low benefit take-up among pensioners.

It comes as thousands of Sun readers flooded our Winter Fuel SOS helpline yesterday looking for help to hang on to the payment.

Figures from the DWP show that 65 per cent of those entitled to pension credit claimed it in 2023, up from 63 per cent in 2022.

While the rise is encouraging, campaigners argue that far more needs to be done to ensure older people receive the financial help they’re entitled to.

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Pension Credit explained

Pension Credit is a benefit which gives you extra money to help with your living costs if you’re on a low income in retirement.

It can also help with housing costs such as ground rent or service charges.

You may be able to get extra help of you’re a carer, have a disability, or are responsible for a child.

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It also opens up access to lots of other benefits such as the warm home discount scheme, support for mortgage interest, council tax discounts, free TV licences once you’re over 75, and help with NHS costs.

To qualify, you need to be over state pension age and live in EnglandScotland or Wales.

If you have a partner, you need to include them on your claim.

Pension Credit tops up:

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  • your weekly income to £218.15 if you’re single
  • your joint weekly income to £332.95 if you have a partner

However, even if your income is higher, you might still qualify if you have a disability or caring responsibilities.

There is also another element to Pension Credit called savings credit. To get this, you need to have saved some money towards your retirement.

You can get an extra £17.01 a week for a single person or £19.04 a week for a married couple.

If you have more than £10,000 in savings, the government uses a calculation to work out how much it adds to your income.

Every £500 over £10,000 counts as £1 income a week. For example, if you have £11,000 in savings, this counts as £2 income a week.

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Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Boosting take-up of pension credit has been a major problem that has proven tricky to crack, with previous campaigns being derailed by the pandemic.

However, there are signs that progress is being made, with take-up creeping up to 65 per cent from 63 per cent the previous year.”

Morrissey added that the recent focus on linking pension credit to the winter fuel payment may drive further increases in applications.

She said: “The restriction of the winter fuel allowance to people on benefits such as pension credit has garnered many headlines, with people urged to check if they can put in a claim.”

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However, she warned that the scale of the problem remains significant.

She continued: “More than 750,000 families who could receive pension credit are still not claiming it.”

“Pension credit is a hugely valuable benefit that not only tops up income but also acts as a gateway to other support such as a free TV licence for the over-75s as well as help with council tax.”

With energy bills set to rise again this winter, the winter fuel payment will be critical in helping pensioners manage their household costs.

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Campaigners have urged those who think they might be eligible to apply for pension credit as soon as possible.

How to apply for pension credit

YOU can start your application up to four months before you reach state pension age.

Applications for pension credit can be made on the government website or by ringing the pension credit claim line on 0800 99 1234.

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You can get a friend or family member to ring for you, but you’ll need to be with them when they do.

You’ll need the following information about you and your partner if you have one:

  • National Insurance number
  • Information about any income, savings and investments you have
  • Information about your income, savings and investments on the date you want to backdate your application to (usually three months ago or the date you reached state pension age)

You can also check your eligibility online by visiting www.gov.uk/pension-credit first.

If you claim after you reach pension age, you can backdate your claim for up to three months.

Joanna Elson, chief executive of Independent Age, described the figures as “disappointing” and warned of the real-life consequences for those missing out on financial help.

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Joanna said: “Behind these statistics are real people who are worrying about whether they will be able to afford next month’s bills.”

She added that the winter fuel payment should be protected from means-testing to ensure the most vulnerable pensioners don’t miss out on essential support.

Joanna continued: “To ensure this group don’t also miss out on the winter fuel payment, we continue to call on the UK Government to pause their plan to means test the winter fuel payment.”

Campaigners argue that the current approach to encouraging pension credit claims isn’t enough and are calling for a more innovative, long-term strategy to reach those most in need.

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With winter approaching, the pressure is mounting to ensure that pensioners don’t face financial hardship as energy prices soar.

For many, claiming pension credit could provide a much-needed lifeline during the cold months ahead.

Meanwhile, money saving expert, Martin Lewis was seen clashing with government minister Lisa Nandy over the Winter Fuel Payment decision that will affect millions of pensioners.

The Sun’s Winter Fuel S.O.S Campaign

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WORRIED about energy bills? The Sun’s Winter Fuel SOS crew are taking calls on Wednesday.

We want to help thousands of pensioners worried about energy bills this winter, with tips and advice on how to make cash go further.

Our Winter Fuel SOS crew will be able to help answer your questions on whether you can get Pension Credit and the Winter Fuel Payment.

Ten million OAPs are set to lose the £300 Winter Fuel Payment due to government cutbacks.

It comes in the same month that millions of households are hit by a ten per cent rise in bills as the Energy Price Cap shoots up.

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We can help with advice on how else to save money.
Our phone line is open 7am to 7pm Wednesday October 9 – you can call us on 0800 028 1978.

Or you can email now: WinterfuelSOS@the-sun.co.uk

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