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The Wall Street Journal today has an interview with “Théo”, the mystery prediction-market trader who says he’ll make nearly $50mn on Polymarket by betting on Donald Trump winning the US presidency.

It offers some interesting new information about his apparent edge:

Théo argued that pollsters should use what are known as neighbor polls that ask respondents which candidates they expect their neighbors to support. The idea is that people might not want to reveal their own preferences, but will indirectly reveal them when asked to guess who their neighbors plan to vote for.

Théo cited a handful of publicly released polls conducted in September using the neighbor method alongside the traditional method. These polls showed Harris’s support was several percentage points lower when respondents were asked who their neighbors would vote for, compared with the result that came from directly asking which candidate they supported. 

To Théo, this was evidence that pollsters were—once again—underestimating Trump’s support. The data helped convince him to put on his long-shot bet that Trump would win the popular vote. At the time that Théo made those wagers, bettors on Polymarket were assessing the chances of a Trump popular-vote victory at less than 40%.

As Théo celebrated the returns on Election Night, he disclosed another piece of the analysis behind his successful wager. In an email, he told the Journal that he had commissioned his own surveys to measure the neighbor effect, using a major pollster whom he declined to name. The results, he wrote, “were mind blowing to the favor of Trump!” 

Théo declined to share those surveys, saying his agreement with the pollster required him to keep the results private. But he argued that U.S. pollsters should use the neighbor method in future surveys to avoid another embarrassing miss.

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“Public opinion would have been better prepared if the latest polls had measured that neighbor effect,” Théo said.

Théo’s hunch has been proved right, but does the methodology stack up? According to the experts, it’s impossible to know.

“Unless the evidence is put into the public domain with tables (often missing for many US polls) it is frankly impossible to comment,” Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, told FTAV.

Though only a few papers have been published that test the accuracy of so-called nominative opinion polls, the wisdom of crowds remains an active area of research. James Surowiecki’s 2004 pop-sociology bestseller of the same name sets out the argument that decentralised groups of independent, diverse thinkers can provide unbiased estimates of reality. More recent work — such as this paper from Roni Lehrer, Sebastian Juhl and Thomas Gschwend of Mannheim University — has applied to elections the principle that crowds are fairly good at guessing what “share of the population has [a] socially undesirable characteristic”.

Building on the theme is Predicting Elections: a ‘Wisdom of Crowds’ Approach by Martin Boon, co-founder of Deltapoll. His study concludes that while know-thy-neighbour polling can be more accurate than conventional surveys, the method is “more than capable of producing seriously misleading predictions”.

Crowd-wisdom polling outperformed the best conventional poll for the UK 2010 general election, Boon finds, but was a notably poor predictor when applied to the outcomes of the 2011 Welsh referendums on devolution powers and voting reform.

Wisdom polls struggle when a high proportion of the electorate doesn’t understand the question, he suggests:

When our general election prediction proved accurate, most people had the advantage of both a basic understanding of British politics at general election time, and a prompted understanding of how each party had fared at the previous election. In short, they had enough information to be smart. However, this may not have been the case in the referenda; both were characterised by the electorate’s limited understanding.

Making people take a view about whether the public would prefer proportional representation to first-past-the-post delivered superficial answers that grouped like a coin flip around the median point of 50 per cent, Boon finds. Their predictive powers improved in all cases when given information around which to frame an answer, such as the result of a previous vote, the trade-off being that prompted questions introduce potential biases. And even then, given a difficult question, voting-intention polling methods still won out.

How informed and engaged the US electorate was in this year’s presidential election is being explored at length elsewhere, as is the possibility that systematic biases skewed conventional polls. Whether one trader’s private polling tapped sentiment more accurately than the publicly available surveys, or whether statistical noise just happened to reinforce his confidence to buy a dollar for 40c, can’t be known without seeing the data.

Whichever way, the bet on Trump winning the popular vote was not quite as contrarian as the risk-and-reward of a binary market makes it appear. “A 40 per cent chance is quite high!” said Curtice:

In any event the polls were not far off. [They] probably underestimated Trump relative to Harris by 4 points and by less than that in most of the swing states. Nobody would have noticed such errors if the election had not been as close as it was.

That’s not to deny that the polls still have a bit of a problem estimating Trump — but finding the source of an error as small as the one this time around will not be easy.

Further reading:
— Take political betting markets literally, not seriously (FTAV)

There’s a battle going on for control of the global semiconductor industry – the chips that are in virtually every piece of electronics we use from our phones to our cars to the latest AI software. For the past half century, chips have quietly powered the technological revolution. In this series, James Kynge goes deep into the miracle of modern chip manufacturing and the struggle over who commands its future.

Presented by James Kynge. Edwin Lane is the senior producer. The producer is Josh Gabert-Doyon. Executive producer is Manuela Saragosa. Sound design by Breen Turner and Samantha Giovinco, with original music from Metaphor Music. The FT’s head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. Special thanks to Tim Bradshaw.

View our accessibility guide.

UAE is undoubtedly one of the best places to find properties with the highest return on investment. Over the years, things have become really investor-friendly. In 2023, the country saw a massive boost in foreign direct investment, reaching $30.69 billion, which marks a 34.97% increase from the previous year. This upward trend underscores the growing confidence in the market, showcasing why finding the best investment properties for sale in UAE remains a lucrative opportunity for investors.

But what makes a property an attractive investment opportunity in UAE? And what are some of the top investment properties currently available in the country? Let’s dive in and guide you through finding the best investment properties in UAE that will bring you high returns in 2025 and beyond.

Signs of the Best Investment Properties for Sale in UAE

Here are some key signs to look out for when searching for the best investment properties for sale in UAE:

Location

Location is the most important factor when hunting for top investment properties in the UAE. But with so many options available, how do you choose the best location? Well, if it’s your first time, then we’ll recommend Dubai Marina. It is a stunning residential area known for its calming vibe, glamorous lifestyle, and towering skyscrapers. Called “The Tallest Block in the World,” Dubai Marina offers amazing marina views with various properties, from high-rise apartments to luxurious hotels.

Then, there’s Downtown Dubai, filled with energy and home to the iconic Burj Khalifa. Here, property choices range from cozy studios to spacious 5-bed townhouses. Prices for these high-end apartments start from AED 3,570,373. Downtown Dubai is perfect for those who want easy access to shopping malls, schools, and great entertainment like the Dubai Mall and Dubai Fountain.

And don’t forget about Palm Jumeirah, a jaw-dropping man-made island shaped like a palm tree. This fascinating island offers everything you need, from fun leisure activities to delightful dining options and pristine private beaches. If you invest in a property here, expect to get a very high rental return, especially during peak tourist seasons.

Infrastructure Development

The UAE’s property market has flourished in the last few years, driven by strategic investments and supportive government policies. The increase in foreign direct investment is living proof of the confidence investors have in this ever-evolving landscape. Key to this growth is the solid infrastructure development across the nation. 

The Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure has implemented 129 development projects worth approximately AED 11.8 billion as part of the ministry’s five-year plan (2018-2023). This extensive development has increased demand for properties, making UAE one of the hottest investment spots globally.

Market Trends

Staying updated with the latest market trends is crucial when searching for top investment properties in UAE. One noteworthy trend is the growing popularity of off-plan properties or projects that are still under construction. These offer attractive payment plans and flexible options, making them a preferred choice for many investors. In 2023 alone, Dubai recorded 57,360 off-plan property transactions, a 48% increase from 2022. The success of these off-plan projects shows a promising future for investors looking for high returns.

Rental Yields

When it comes to rental yields, the UAE is shining bright! In the first quarter of 2024, the average gross rental yield was 5.16%, which is an amazing increase from 4.93% in the third quarter of 2023. This rise shows how strong and exciting the property market is becoming in the UAE. For investors, such high rental yields mean more money in their pockets. It’s like getting a bigger piece of a delicious pie! So, if you’re looking to invest, the UAE is the place to be for exciting rental returns.

3 Best Investment Properties for Sale in UAE

Now that you know what makes a property an attractive investment opportunity and the key signs to look out for, let’s take a look at the 3 best investment properties for sale in UAE.

Number 1. Apartment in TIGER SKY TOWER

How wonderful would it be to start your day in a stunning 2-bedroom apartment located right in the bustling heart of Dubai’s Business Bay? Welcome to the TIGER SKY TOWER. With its generous 144.87 square meters of living space, this apartment is designed for comfort and relaxation.

You will have two elegant bathrooms to complement the luxurious living space, and being just 450 meters from the sea, the location couldn’t be more ideal for those who love the ocean breeze. Priced at 4 771 665 AED, this property not only provides you with modern living but also great value, situated close to Dubai’s vibrant city centre.

Number 2. Apartment in Beach Walk

Imagine living in a cozy apartment in the beautiful Beach Walk area of Dubai. This fabulous place features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering a comfortable living space of 93 square meters. It’s close to the sea, just 350 meters away, making it perfect for anyone who loves the beach.

The apartment is priced at 3,300,000 AED, giving you a chance to invest in a valuable property in a prime location in Dubai. If you invest in this property, you’ll also enjoy a range of amenities such as gymnasiums, restaurants and cafes, and breathtaking views of the surrounding area.

Number 3. Apartment in Beach Walk

Discover the stunning Apartment in Beach Walk, Dubai, UAE, a remarkable investment opportunity with elegant features and a prime location. This luxurious property contains 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, providing a generous living space of 93 square meters. Strategically located just 350 meters away from the beautiful sea, this apartment offers both comfort and convenience.

With its exquisite design and access to various amenities, this property promises a harmonious lifestyle in one of Dubai’s sought-after areas. Priced at 3,300,000 AED, it represents an exceptional investment potential.

Conclusion

So, there you have it! A complete guide to finding the best investment properties for sale in UAE. Who doesn’t want to invest in a booming real estate market that offers high rental yields, incredible infrastructure development, and a wide range of property options? Be it the luxurious Palm Jumeirah or the lively Downtown Dubai, you just can’t go wrong with any investment in the UAE. Happy investing!

Want to know more? Visit https://emirates.estate/.

South Korean local government cancels international event with 30,000 participants from 78 countries, causing international damage.

On 29 October, an administrative decision by a South Korean government agency triggered international controversy, raising concerns over religious freedom and resulting in considerable financial loss.

The “Religious Leaders Forum and Graduation Ceremony,” a joint initiative by two prominent religious organisations, was scheduled to take place in Paju, South Korea. The event was anticipated to attract over 30,000 participants from 57 countries, including 1,000 religious leaders representing Christianity, Buddhism, Islam, and Hinduism.

However, the Gyeonggi Tourism Organisation, a public entity under Gyeonggi Province, abruptly cancelled the venue rental without prior notice. This last-minute decision has led to significant financial damage for the international event. Organisers of the event stated that the cancellation constitutes an unconstitutional act of discrimination against a particular religion, violating religious freedom, human rights, and due process of law.

The hosting organisations, the Association for Buddhist National Unification of Korea and the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, reported that they had received official confirmation on 23 and 28 October that there was no plan to cancel. They also claimed that the unilateral cancellation was an unreasonable administrative action targeting a specific religious group. They further emphasised that other events scheduled for the same day were unaffected, suggesting that the cancellation was “an administrative decision influenced by opposition from a specific religious group,” which “violates the principle of separation of church and state guaranteed by the Constitution.”

The Gyeonggi Tourism Organisation cited security concerns related to recent North Korean actions and the planned activities of a North Korean defector group as reasons for the cancellation. However, it was noted that other events, such as civilian bike rides and foreign tourist visits to the DMZ, were allowed within the same designated area.

The incident has reignited international debate about religious freedom and tolerance in South Korea. The U.S. State Department’s International Religious Freedom Report has previously raised concerns such as the prosecution of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus and the government’s refusal to approve the construction of a mosque.

The Association for Buddhist National Unification of Korea and the Shincheonji Church of Jesus are calling on the South Korean government to respect religious freedom, uphold human rights, and reverse this unjust decision. They urge international organisations to monitor the situation and take appropriate action to protect religious freedom.

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Yesterday, we wrote about how Donald Trump’s resounding election victory sparked a rally in Russia’s Moex index, Austria’s heavily Russia-exposed Raiffeisen Bank International and various other Russia-linked assets.  

We missed a biggie — on Monday, JPMorgan’s Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa Securities (JEMA) had jumped 18.3 per cent, its biggest daily rise in over two years.

Until 2022, the London-listed investment fund went by a slightly snappier name: JPMorgan Russian Securities.

JEMA describes itself in marketing materials as a high-quality, dividend-focused equity fund. Launched in 1994, it was one of the first ever to invest in Russia’s then-newly-open market, and has been run by JPM’s Oleg Biryulyov ever since. 

Obviously everything changed for the fund after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. And, perhaps, it’s important to take a longer view:

The eventual closure of the Russian market to Western investors meant the valuation of the 26 stocks JEMA held in Russia were marked down to nominal levels, with sanctions having trashed their valuations. One of JEMA’s Ukrainian directors stepped down shortly after the outbreak of war. 

JEMA remains a good way to play the prospect of Russia getting de-sanctioned, however.

Months after the invasion, the fund’s board swapped its original benchmark (Russia’s RTS Index) for the S&P EMEA BMI (ticker: SPEMAUT), which covers “stocks from developed and emerging markets in Europe, the Middle East and Africa”. On Monday, that index barely budged.

JEMA’s Russian securities now comprise roughly eight per cent of the net asset value of its portfolio. Lukoil and Gazprom remain two of JEMA’s top-five overweights. 

In the six months to last April, JEMA’s net asset value rose 6.9 per cent, marginally underperforming its new reference index. Chair Eric Sanderson blamed this on “high ongoing charges and its holding of Russian assets, which do not form part of the reference index”.

Post-tax revenue over the same period fell to £41,000. In the six months to April 2021, revenue was £4.3mn. At pixel time, the fund’s market cap stood just under $60mn.

“Separate and distinct” from JEMA’s market cap, as Grant’s Interest Rate Observer noted in August, “is £25.2mn in accumulated Russian dividends (with another £7.9mn expected), undistributed since the war began” and held in a custody ‘S’ account in Moscow.

Per Grant’s:

Whether the JEMA shareholders or Vladimir Putin will wind up pocketing the money is a good question. Decree No. 442, signed by the president of Russia on May 23, authorizes retaliatory compensation for Western seizures of Russian assets. Surely, if push came to shove, Putin would not overlook the JEMA dividend pile.

[ . . . ]

Accounting for the aforementioned writedown of Russian assets, JEMA’s NAV per share stands at £0.50. However, if one were to replace the marked-down value with current market value, the picture would instantly brighten — it could, in fact, dazzle. NAV per share would soar by 813% to £4.54.

In April, to complicate matters further, VTB Bank, one of Russia’s largest state lenders — and one of JEMA’s holdings — filed a lawsuit in Russia against nine JPMorgan legal entities, seeking to recover $493.5mn held with the US bank in New York. JPMorgan has challenged VTB’s claims.

On October 18, per a JEMA filing to the LSE, the Russian court granted VTB’s claim for $439mn in full against eight (including JEMA) of the nine JPMorgan entities named as defendants in the original claim.

The JPMorgan defendants have 30 days from the date of publication of the ruling to appeal. Under current Russian law, JEMA’s ‘S’ account assets cannot be used to satisfy the judgment. 

Has Trump’s election victory shifted the dial on any of this? Judging by JEMA’s share price jump on Monday, some investors seem to think the answer may be “yes”.