UNEMPLOYMENT has fallen again and wage growth has slowed, new data shows.

The rate of unemployment fell to 4.0% between in June to August 2024, below estimates of a year ago, and decreased in the latest quarter.

The figures from the ONS also show that growth for wages was 1.9% from June to August 2024.

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Top Israeli officials have told the US that they are planning to limit an expected counterstrike against Iran to military targets rather than hitting the energy sector or nuclear facilities, according to two people close to the talks.

The assurances from Israel come as the US has been pressing Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to avoid retaliation against Iran that could trigger further escalation and a broader conflict in the Middle East, with just three weeks to go before the US presidential election.

Oil prices dropped sharply on Monday evening on reports that Israel would restrict its response. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell almost 3 per cent on Tuesday to $75 a barrel.

Washington’s expectations that Israel will exercise some restraint in its planned attack on Iran — a response to a ballistic missile attack on Israel from Iran earlier this month — were cemented during call between Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden last week that the White House described as “productive”.

A third person briefed on the situation said “the thinking” was for Israel to respond before the US election in November, and that Israel was closely co-ordinating its planning to ensure the counterstrike would not influence American voters.

Netanyahu’s office said: “We listen to the opinions of the US, but we will make our final decisions based on our national interests.” The Washington Post first reported on Monday that Netanyahu had reassured Biden over Israel’s plans. The White House declined to comment.

The signal from Israel over its intentions was followed this weekend by the Pentagon announcing that it would send an advanced antimissile system to Israel, manned by US troops, in order to help defend the country against a potential Iranian response.

US officials have cautioned that their ability to influence Israel’s actions is limited, despite the fact that America is Israel’s most powerful ally and a top supplier of military aid.

But even before the call between Biden and Netanyahu, the Financial Times reported this month that Washington expected a measured response from Israel against Tehran, believing that Israel did not want the conflict with Iran to spiral further out of control.

Biden had made it clear that he did not want to see any strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities or the energy sector, which threatened to trigger a jump in oil prices ahead of the US election.

Kamala Harris, the US vice-president and Democratic candidate for president, is already vulnerable to criticism over her handling of inflation from Donald Trump, the former president and Republican rival, which would be exacerbated by a sudden new surge in the cost of petrol.

The talks over Israel’s counterstrike against Iran unfolded as officials in Washington were warily watching Israel’s escalating military offensive and heavy bombing in Lebanon against the militant group Hizbollah.

Fighting continued on Tuesday morning with Hizbollah saying that it clashed with Israeli troops in the village of Rab Thalatheen in the south of the country. Israel said that its jets bombed 230 sites in Lebanon and Gaza overnight.

Meanwhile, Israeli attacks on Gaza have intensified in recent days, triggering new warnings from Washington about the protection of civilians.

“The UN reports that no food has entered northern Gaza in nearly 2 weeks,” Harris wrote on X on Sunday. “Israel must urgently do more to facilitate the flow of aid to those in need . . . International humanitarian law must be respected.”

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Before he was arrested in France for failing to adequately moderate criminal activity on his social media app, tech billionaire Pavel Durov was known for three things: founding Telegram, posting thirst-trap photos on Instagram and fathering over 100 children.  

The last fact is a relatively recent revelation. This summer, Durov surprised his online followers by revealing that a sperm donation he made to a fertility clinic had resulted in children conceived in 12 countries by more than 100 couples. He was, he noted with pride, “high quality donor material”. He then declared plans to “open source” his DNA so that his biological children could find one another more easily. It is a plan his detention has presumably derailed. 

What could possess someone to boast of fathering a biblical number of children? Durov claimed that he wanted his announcement to destigmatise donation. Its strangeness is likely to have had the opposite effect. 

Yet Durov is not alone in revelling in his super donor status. While fertility clinics in many countries prevent people from donating too many times, not everyone abides by the rules. Last year, a Dutch crypto investor and YouTuber suspected of fathering more than 550 children via multiple clinics had to be ordered by courts to stop. In the US, a fertility doctor in Indianapolis was found to have covertly substituted patient samples for his own throughout the 1970s and 80s, resulting in dozens of children.

There are also those willing to sidestep regulations and arrange for private donations with strangers they meet online. Kyle Gordy, who runs the Facebook group “Sperm Donation USA” (26,000 members) told Netflix he thinks he has around 70 children.

This genetic largesse is presumably down to a mix of narcissism, altruism and dreams of immortality without the messy business of actually parenting a child. Some may also believe their genes are more valuable than most and that exceptionalism can (and must!) be passed down.

Others may hope to prove virility in middle age. Tech entrepreneur Bryan Johnson, known for his extreme efforts to biohack his physical age, has undergone genital shock therapy and likes to keep social media followers appraised on the health of his sperm.

There are obvious drawbacks to one person fathering a large number of children. As they grow up, the children face the risk of encountering unknown half siblings in the wild. This is why the UK caps donation to 10 families. It is the reason Iceland, a small island of about 393,000 people, has an online database called Íslendingabók that allows people to cross-check their lineage before things become serious with a prospective romantic partner. 

But to a high-minded subset, the risk of having no children is a more pressing problem. The most famous example, as is so often the case, is Elon Musk, who has fathered at least 12 children with three mothers. The latest, revealed this summer, was born to Shivon Zilis, an executive at his brain computer interface company Neuralink. He previously had twins with Zilis around the same time as the birth of a child with his then partner, the musician Grimes. 

Musk’s children will do little to shift the world’s 8.2bn population count, but they appear to ease his own anxiety about growth rates. “A collapsing birth rate is the biggest danger civilization faces by far” he wrote on Twitter in 2022. 

His support for large families led to the rumour that he was funding his own fertility clinic — something he denied to the FT two years ago. Bloomberg later reported that he had donated money to the University of Texas and that this funding was being used to establish the Population Wellbeing Initiative, a research group whose interests include fertility and population growth. 

One upside to Musk’s vocal pronatalism is that it appears to have shone a spotlight on assisted reproductive technology. This at a time when the US Republican party that Musk supports is divided over the future of IVF.

PitchBook reports that 2024 is expected to be a record year for fundraising in the so-called femtech sector, surpassing 2021’s high of $1.9bn. Well known tech names are investing. OpenAI co-founder Sam Altman has backed start-up Conception, for example, which is researching the possibility of same-sex parents having a child together.

The most generous interpretation of the tech sector’s interest in genetic legacies is that it makes sense for a group already preoccupied with building for the future. The ungenerous version is that it has shades of a god complex. The most likely conclusion is that it must be a mix of both.  

elaine.moore@ft.com

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Israel faces a looming shortage of interceptor missiles as it shores up air defences to protect the country from attacks by Iran and its proxies, according to industry executives, former military officials and analysts.

The US is racing to help close gaps in Israel’s protective shield, announcing on Sunday the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) antimissile battery, ahead of an expected retaliatory strike from Israel on Iran that risks further regional escalation.

“Israel’s munitions issue is serious,” said Dana Stroul, a former senior US defence official with responsibility for the Middle East.

“If Iran responds to an Israel attack [with a massive air strike campaign], and Hizbollah joins in too, Israel air defences will be stretched,” she said, adding that US stockpiles were not limitless. “The US can’t continue supplying Ukraine and Israel at the same pace. We are reaching a tipping point.”

Boaz Levy, chief executive of Israel Aerospace Industries, a state-owned company which makes the Arrow interceptors used to shoot down ballistic missiles, said he was running triple shifts to keep production lines running.

“Some of our lines are working 24 hours, seven days a week. Our goal is to meet all our obligations,” Levy said, adding that the time required to produce interceptor missiles was “not a matter of days”. While Israel does not disclose the size of its stockpiles, he added: “It is no secret that we need to replenish stocks.”

Israel’s triple-layered air defences have so far shot down the vast bulk of incoming drones and missiles fired by Iran and its proxies at the state from across the region.

The country’s Iron Dome system has shot down short-range rockets and drones fired by Hamas from Gaza, while David’s Sling has intercepted heavier rockets fired from Lebanon, and the Arrow system has blocked ballistic missiles from Iran. Houthi rebels in Yemen and Iraqi militias have also fired missiles, rockets and drones at Israel.

The Israeli military claimed in April that, with the help of the US and other allies, it achieved a 99 per cent interception rate against an Iranian salvo of 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles.

But Israel had less success fending off a second Iranian barrage of over 180 ballistic missiles fired on October 1. Almost three dozen missiles hit Israel’s Nevatim air base, according to open source intelligence analysts, while one missile exploded 700 metres away from the headquarters of the Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency.

The US-supplied Thaad battery, which is designed to shoot down ballistic missiles, will sit alongside Israel’s Arrow system. It bolsters Israel’s overall air defences as Benjamin Netanyahu’s government plans its retaliatory strike for Iran’s missile barrage in October, which Tehran said was to avenge the killing of the leaders of the Hamas and Hizbollah militant groups.

Lebanon-based Hizbollah has shown it can still strike at least 60km into Israel despite weeks of Israeli attacks on its commanders and its arsenal.

On Sunday, a Hizbollah attack drone killed four Israeli soldiers at a military base in the centre of the country.

“We are not seeing Hizbollah’s full capability yet. It has only been firing at around a tenth of its estimated prewar launching capacity, a few hundred rockets a day instead of as many as 2,000,” said Assaf Orion, a former Israeli brigadier general and head of strategy at the Israel Defense Forces.

“Some of that gap is a choice by Hizbollah not to go full out, and some of it is due to degradation by the IDF . . . But Hizbollah has enough left to mount a strong operation,” Orion added. “Haifa and northern Israel are still on the receiving end of rocket and drone attacks almost every day.”

Analysts said that defence planners and Israel’s AI-powered air defences were having to choose which areas to protect over others.

More than 20,000 rockets and missiles have been fired at Israel over the past year from Gaza and Lebanon alone, according to official Israeli figures.

“During the October 1 attack, there was a sense the IDF reserved some Arrow interceptors in case Iran fired its next salvo at Tel Aviv,” said Ehud Eilam, a former researcher at Israel’s Ministry of Defence. “It’s only a matter of time before Israel starts to run out of interceptors and has to prioritise how they are deployed.”

Illustration by Ian Bott and cartography by Jana Tauschinski

Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli is the FT’s Milan correspondent

One hot afternoon in May, I was among six people touring a luxury penthouse in Milan, for rent, marketed at €14,000 per month — though I was the only one visiting for reporting purposes, rather than an actual interest in renting. The property was bright and airy, and equipped with a small outdoor pool overlooking the Milanese and Alpine skyline. The agent later told me that about a dozen wealthy people from several countries had visited over two days.

It reminded me of the dynamics of London’s pre-Brexit real estate market and it left me wondering whether Milan is experiencing a bubble or a boom, as Italy competes to attract the wealthy looking to leave the UK.

A report by property agency Knight Frank says that, while wealthy people historically snapped up mansions on Lake Como or in Tuscany as holiday homes, they are now buying luxury real estate as primary residences, as they are lured to Italy by generous tax incentives devised since Brexit.

The new UK Labour government’s need to raise taxes and decision to end the country’s “non-dom” regime, which offered residents whose permanent home was abroad up to 15 tax-free years on money held overseas and not remitted to the UK, have prompted a (potentially overstated) panic among the rich looking to move abroad, experts say.

Meanwhile, Italy offers a flat-tax yearly charge of €100,000 on overseas income for new residents. That charge is set to double for those moving here from next year, but tax advisers and experts say the increase will do little to discourage those who have set their eyes on Italy as their new home. Their reading is: for the ultra-rich, a €200,000 charge on their unlimited foreign income is still a good deal.

The flat-tax scheme has attracted roughly 2,700 individuals, including Russian oligarchs, private equity executives and sportspeople, since its introduction in 2016, according to official figures. With most people moving to Milan and the lake district, north of the city, according to residence and citizenship advisory business Henley & Partners, Italy now has the sixth highest projected inflow of millionaires, globally, and the highest in all of Europe.

Yet there are questions as to whether the country’s financial ecosystem and its infrastructure are ripe for an influx of rich new residents.

There is no doubt that Milan, the country’s financial capital, is buzzing like never before. Its convenient location, close to the Alps, the lakes and fancy beach resorts such as Portofino, as well as its rich cultural and culinary scene, make it a popular destination for wealthy individuals seeking to move their residency.

To make rich expats feel at home, several private members’ clubs have announced plans to launch in Milan, including private equity-backed The Wilde. Luxury housing developments in and around the city are springing up and selling for €15,000-€25,000 per square metre, and London-style bars, rooftops and spas — some inside new luxury hotels — have multiplied over the past few years.

But housing supply problems, a modest international school offering and a society that is comparatively less diverse than in other global cities limit the number of multimillionaires it can attract. The influx of foreigners moving to the continent post-Brexit was also much more contained in Milan compared with Paris and Frankfurt. According to EY’s Financial Services Brexit Tracker, in 2022, of the 7,000 finance jobs that were transferred to the continent, 2,800 went to Paris, 1,800 to Frankfurt and 1,200 to Dublin. Milan doesn’t appear in the rankings.

Even so, Marco Cerrato, a partner at Milan-based tax firm Maisto & Associati, says Italy is now one of the three “most palatable jurisdictions in Europe for people looking to leave London” alongside Monaco and Switzerland. “The choice depends on a series of considerations that are both personal and professional.”

So far, Italy has proved attractive for the Middle Eastern wealthy, as well as Latin Americans, Russians and families with young children, say tax advisers. But I doubt Milan will ever turn into an upgraded version of London or Paris. Space, above everything else, is limited. And Italy’s bureaucratic and political woes are structural.

Multimillionaires, though, mean new businesses, job creation and forex revenue, which, for a highly indebted country such as Italy, are vital sources of economic growth. Successive governments in Rome have understood this and, although legislation has been confusingly amended over the course of eight years, both the left and the right have stopped short of slashing the incentives.

Moreover, the changes do not have a retroactive effect — something that would be unconstitutional in Italy — so fears that laws will change or be withdrawn during the course of a rich arrival’s stay are ill-founded.

“Everyone can see there is an excellent opportunity for Italy amid changing laws in the UK and political instability in France,” says one government official. “We want to become the most attractive jurisdiction for those leaving other countries for tax reasons.”

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This article is part of FT Wealth, a section providing in-depth coverage of philanthropy, entrepreneurs, family offices, as well as alternative and impact investment