Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
Donald Trump’s ability to push through his legislative agenda hangs in the balance as votes continue to be counted in more than two dozen congressional races that will determine which party controls the House of Representatives.
While Trump secured a stunning victory in this week’s presidential election, and Republicans will have a majority in the US Senate, a long list of House races have yet to be called, leaving it unclear whether Republicans will hold on to the lower chamber.
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If Democrats are able to reclaim control of the House, they could act as a bulwark against the Trump White House and a Republican-held Senate.
But given the scale of Republican wins on Tuesday night many non-partisan analysts expect the lower chamber will probably remain under GOP control. Trump improved his margins in 48 out of 50 states and is on course to be the first Republican presidential candidate to win the national popular vote in two decades.
Experts at the Cook Political Report wrote in a memo on Wednesday that the “most likely outcome is a GOP trifecta, including a continued narrow Republican House majority”.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson — a close Trump ally who is expected to keep the top job in the House should Republicans hold on to the chamber — has said the GOP is “poised to have unified government in the White House, Senate and House”.
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In an interview with Fox News on Wednesday, Johnson said Republicans would be “ready to play ball on day one”.
“President Trump wants to be aggressive. He wants to go big, and we’re excited about that,” he said. “We’re going to get to play offence, because I’m absolutely convinced we’re going to have the White House, the Senate and the House. I think we will deliver that majority.”
Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic leader who would probably be Speaker if Democrats were able to reclaim control of the chamber, has struck a more cautious note.
“It has yet to be decided who will control the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress,” Jeffries said on Thursday. “We must count every vote and wait until the results in Oregon, Arizona and California are clear.”
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Many close congressional races have been slow to be decided because states will continue to count mail-in ballots so long as they are postmarked by election day. California has historically been slow to count votes — and nearly a dozen races in the state have yet to be called.
The delays are not without precedent. Two years ago, after the 2022 midterms, it took more than a week for the Associated Press to call that Republicans had retaken control of the House.
While Republicans are certain to retake control of the Senate after flipping three seats in West Virginia, Ohio and Montana, the margin of their majority also remains in the balance, with results still being tabulated in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada.
Nissan has said it will lay off thousands of workers as it slashes global production to tackle a drop in sales in China and the US.
The Japanese car making giant says it will cut 9,000 jobs around the world in a cost saving effort that will see its global production reduced by a fifth.
Nissan did not immediately respond to a request from BBC News for details on where the job cuts will be made.
The company employs more than 6,000 people at its manufacturing plant in Sunderland, North East England.
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The company also cut its operating profit forecasts for 2024 by 70%. It was the second time this year that the firm has lowered its outlook.
“These turnaround measures do not imply that the company is shrinking,” said Nissan’s chief executive Makoto Uchida.
“Nissan will restructure its business to become leaner and more resilient.”
Nissan’s shares were trading more than 6% lower on Friday morning in Tokyo.
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Growing competition in China has led to falling prices, which has left many foreign car makers there struggling to compete with local firms like BYD.
In November last year, Nissan and its partners announced a £2bn ($2.6bn) plan to build three electric car models at its Sunderland factory.
The firm said it will build electric Qashqai and Juke models at the plant alongside the next generation of the electric Leaf, which is already produced there.
Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
Within a few hours of Donald Trump securing his victory in the US, Japanese media was using the term matatora — the third Trump-related entry in Japan’s dictionary of escalating disquiet at his possible return.
The first word in the sequence, moshitora (“what if Trump”), was current in the latter months of 2023 and set a tone of background nervousness in government, corporate and market circles. The second, hobotora (“most likely Trump”), has been in widespread use this year, demanding more serious fretting around geopolitics, inflation and trade risk. Matatora (“Trump is back”) grants a general licence to gasp.
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For some, though, the word has unleashed a bullish snort and an argument that — absent embroilment in regional conflict or some other unforeseen calamity — Japan may be better placed than almost any other developed market outside the US to flourish over the next few years.
Tokyo stocks, declares Neil Newman, a strategist who has been covering Japan since the 1980s, have rarely been so primed for ignition. If anything, he says, the political paralysis to emerge from Japan’s messy general election last month, and the implied guarantee of no bad policymaking, should only make the market more attractive to big global funds.
It is a beguiling argument, given an extra sparkle by the various volatile knee-jerk market moves in Tokyo that accompanied Wednesday’s news: gains for exporters (on assumptions of an even weaker yen), defence industry stocks (Trump will demand allies spend more on their militaries), banks (inflation will rise and so will interest rates) and companies that stand to benefit from the (probably accelerated while Trump is in power) reshoring of Japan’s semiconductor industry.
Nicholas Smith, a strategist at CLSA, also sees the prospect of a six-month boost for Japan as animal spirits lift the financial sector. Global capital spending, frozen in the run-up to the US election, should now thaw quickly, favouring Japan.
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The longer-term case for Japanese equities under Trump, though, depends on two main lines of reasoning. The first is that Shanghai and Hong Kong’s loss will be Tokyo’s gain. US-China relations under the Biden administration have not been good, and there is reason to expect them to worsen under Trump. US pension funds have already come under pressure to stop or withdraw investment, while China-based dealmaking led by US private equity has all but fallen silent. Some US pension money may have returned to Hong Kong and China in recent months, but that could quickly reverse under Trump. Critically, the flows may well divert to Japan by default as the only developed market in Asia with the breadth and depth to absorb them.
A second argument is that Japan’s recent descent into political stasis — the ruling Liberal Democratic party and its leader, Shigeru Ishiba, have yet to pull together a working government — is not, for the stock market, a big problem. Ishiba and his party are too weak to disturb the economy’s momentum, or unravel the progress on corporate governance reform and restructuring that appeals so strongly to foreign investors.
There are clearly powerful counter-cases to all this, not least the chance that the Trump administration is associated with such elevated levels of geopolitical uncertainty that investors retreat to the sort of trading patterns that flee risk and tend to reduce exposure to Japan.
And though Japan may indeed be geared to global growth, a significant chunk of that is exposure to China. Even if Japanese companies can navigate their way through higher tariffs and intensified “pick-a-side” rhetoric from Washington, China itself could be far less rewarding than in the past.
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On the political front, the risks around Ishiba’s dismal gamble on a general election could prove much greater than Newman and other bulls suppose. The price paid for the prime minister’s weakness — an inability to communicate Japan’s importance to Trump, or present himself as likely to be around long enough to be worth Trump caring about — will be high.
Since early 2024, when the Nikkei 225 Average finally surpassed the record set in 1989, the brokers’ mantra has been that Japan is Back. A succession of big US and European long-only funds have come to Tokyo to check for themselves that the sales pitch holds true. A growing number appear to have returned convinced but without the sort of comfort levels needed for a really big reallocation to Japan. They had in any case been holding fire until after the US election.
Trump is Back may ensure that Japan stays Back. It may also set Japan way, way back.
IT’S a service used by more than four million people nationally that radically changes lives, but youth work remains one of the UK’s most underrated careers.
The sector currently employs around 70,000 people in 8,500 organisations, helped by an army of 180,000 volunteers.
Taking place in youth clubs and other community settings, youth workers provide support, guidance, life and employability skills for young people aged eight to 19, and young adults up to the age of 25 with additional needs.
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Despite demand for youth work services rapidly rising — with two-thirds of organisations reporting more young people turning to them – most are struggling to attract new staff.
Budget cuts mean 4,500 jobs have been lost and 760 centres closed in the last ten years because of lack of local authority investment.
However, the new Government has pledged to rollout a “young futures programme”, which will need an influx of new workers to help young people.
This week is National Youth Work Week, which aims to raise awareness of the life-changing difference youth workers make to young people.
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Jamie Masraff is CEO of national youth charity OnSide, which builds multimillion-pound “youth zones” in disadvantaged areas.
He explains: “With so many young people facing anxiety, loneliness and isolation, youth workers have never been more important.
“Youth Work Week celebrates the crucial role youth workers play and highlights how rewarding a career it can be.”
Harry Wills knows how important youth workers can be for young people because they gave him the support he needed as a teenager.
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The 31-year-old from West London is now a manager at OnSide’s WEST Youth Zone, based in White City, London, which has more than 2,500 members.
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Harry said: “When I was 13, I was getting in trouble at school and was placed in foster care. I felt overwhelmed and worried that my carers might stop looking after me.
“My local youth club was a safe, consistent space in my life and the youth workers were the trusted adults I needed.
“I tried a few different jobs until my social worker suggested a youth work apprenticeship.
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“On my first day in the job everything clicked into place. I love helping to build young people’s confidence, helping them on their way to finding out who they want to be, there’s nothing more rewarding.”
There are three main ways to become a youth worker.
Most people begin by volunteering with a local organisation.
To become a youth support worker, you need a Level 2 or 3 certificate, or a Diploma in Youth Work Practice.
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These qualifications are great for people already working in a youth setting.
To be a professional youth worker, you’ll need to study for a Level 6 qualification, including the newly launched Level 6 Youth Worker Apprenticeship.
As well as changing lives for the better, youth work can also provide a long-term career.
A recent study by the National Youth Agency, the national body for the profession in England, found that more than half of youth workers have worked in the sector for ten or more years, while 37 per cent are highly qualified professional youth workers.
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NYA boss Leigh Middleton said: “There have been some huge challenges, but we are beginning to see a step-change in how youth work is perceived and valued.”
Festive jobs galore
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NEED some extra cash for Christmas? There’s still time to bag a festive job.
Frasers Group – owner of top brands including Sports Direct, Frasers, Flannels and Game – is taking on 4,000 staff nationwide.
A spokesperson, said: “These seasonal retail roles offer an amazing opportunity to kickstart careers in retail.
“We seek high energy and customer service-obsessed people, and they are rewarded with a great workplace and benefits.”
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Find out more – and apply – at frasers.group/careers/jobs.
easyJet proves a force for good
IT’S Remembrance Sunday this week, when we honour the sacrifices made by our Armed Forces.
Around 20,000 people leave the forces each year, equipped with highly transferable skills.
To support these service leavers, easyJet has now teamed up with ex-forces employment platform weServed to hire morte veterans.
Hugh Andree, of weServed, said: “We’re proud to help create a pathway for UK veterans to explore new job opportunities, from aircraft engineers to cabin crew.”
The campaign is backed by former SAS hero, turned novelist, Andy McNab, who said: “We know it can be a challenge for veterans to find the right career fit.
“But easyJet understands the value of their skill sets and can support them with new and rewarding career journeys.
Careers expert John Lees is working with the Probation Service to promote the role of Community Payback supervisors, who support offenders to improve their communities.
Here are John’s tips to find a more purposeful career.
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1. Find your passion: Understanding what gets you out of bed in the morning is crucial if you’re looking for a career with more purpose.
2. Take some time to list things you’re passionate about and you can find a career that fits almost any passion.
3. Identify transferable skills: Your previous experience can be of use in a totally different industry. For example, if you’ve worked in customer service it is likely that you have the skills to diffuse situations and communicate with empathy.
4. Be creative: Your next role might not be obvious, and you’ll need to think creatively about how you can pair your passion with your career. If you love the outdoors, why not consider a role in Community Payback, where you’ll be able to spend time in nature while you give back to your community.
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5. Become your own biggest advocate: Be confident in selling yourself. Note three key skills you have and practise discussing these, then, look through the job description and pick out three requirements for the role that you have experience in. Being able to discuss these with confidence will give you a great chance in any interview.
6. Take your time: The biggest mistake people make when changing careers is making a rushed decision. Take time to consider your options and lean on people close to you who can act as a sounding board.
Search Community Payback jobs online to find out more
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PET specialist Jollyes is hiring sales assistants, supervisors and store managers nationwide.
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