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Despite the massive FII selloff in October, long-term funds still looking to enter India, says Morningstar’s Belapurkar- The Week

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Geopolitcal crisis, strong Chinese stocks prompt FPIs to take out Rs 58,711 crore from equities in October- The Week

October marked the auspicious period of Navratri, but the festive cheer seems to have eluded the equity market. Foreign portfolio investors sold more than Rs 72,000 crore in the equity market so far this month, the highest ever for a month in over four years. In fact, the sell-off this time around was even more than the Rs 62,000 crore worth of shares they sold back in March 2020, when the world was grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic, and India had imposed a complete lockdown.

On the back of the relentless selling by foreign institutional investors, the benchmark BSE Sensex slipped around 5 per cent, and the BSE Smallcap index fell over 6 per cent this month till October 22. The FII selling has been partly offset by continued inflows into domestic mutual funds. SIP (systematic investment plans) inflows per month have now topped Rs 24,000 crore, which, in a way, has cushioned the fall in the market.

ALSO READ: F&O trading can’t be a national pastime, says SEBI member Ashwani Bhatia

What is driving the FII selloff?

A major reason that triggered the FII selloff was the recent stimulus measures announced by China. The measures, which included interest rate cuts by the Chinese central bank, saw a lot of foreign fund flows moving there as the valuations looked attractive. On the other hand, valuations in many pockets of India’s stock market have been expensive. That, coupled with comparatively slower earnings growth in India and signs of looming economic slowdown in the coming months, dampened the mood Motilal Oswal Financial Services recently forecasted earnings of Nifty 50 companies to grow 5 per cent year-on-year in the July-September quarter, the lowest in 17 quarters.

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Escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia and the looming Presidential elections in the United States, too, added to the uncertainties. However, despite the near-term worries, foreign investors still remain constructive on India in the long-term, opined Kaustubh Belapurkar, director and manager, Research at Morningstar Investment Research India.

“China’s been beaten down for long, so there’s always a valuation play at the heart of managers. So there would be some reallocation that potentially can happen, has happened, back into the Chinese market, but I think India still remains very positive for managers from the long run,” Belapurkar said.

While FPIs might have reduced some allocation to India, long-term funds are still looking to enter India, he noted.

The US Federal Reserve recently announced a sharp 50 basis points interest rate cut, and another 50 bps rate cut is expected by the end of December, with more cuts to follow in 2025 as the American central bank’s focus shifts to protecting growth while inflation has cooled.

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ALSO READ: Bear attack Investors poorer by Rs 9.19 lakh cr in single day as markets crash

Typically, when interest rates come down in markets like the US, demand for risk assets goes up. Generally, in such scenarios in the past, flows to emerging markets—including India—have picked up, although that may not happen overnight, he said.

“Obviously there’s that whole risk of the US election. Once things around that stabilize, you might see that risk trade playing off again in markets like India. Especially when you see interest rates coming down, risk assets will become more and more attractive from a US investor’s perspective. And you might see, potentially, a reasonable amount of capital coming back from FIIs back into the Indian markets,” stated Belapurkar.

While valuations have been a concern for some time if the local flows continue to remain strong, valuations may continue to remain elevated, he added.

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“You pay a little bit of an excess for growth at times,” pointed Belapurkar.

‘Investors chasing funds’

As domestic fund flows have surged over the last few years, new fund launches have also picked up in a big way, with sectoral and thematic funds also gaining traction. Investors chasing such funds worry Belapurkar, and he feels investors, especially those who have only recently started their investment journey, should not get swayed by recent past returns.

“If you invest into a sector, thinking that it’s delivered 50 per cent over the last one year, it’s actually the worst time to get involved. Sector rotation happens. We saw that with technology just post-COVID where it was the best-performing sector, and then it lagged significantly. Most of the money came into tech funds after the run-up happened. And history is kind of repeating itself. So I think that’s something investors need to keep in mind. Don’t chase recent performance especially when it comes to sector themes. Because you can get it horribly wrong,” he stressed.

ALSO READ: Growing youth population, high employment to drive GCC retail market: Lulu Retail

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How does he see domestic markets panning out over the next 6-12 months?

Belapurkar feels there could still be minor corrections, especially if FIIs continue to sell massively. He doesn’t expect any sharp drop unless, of course, geopolitical tensions escalate and a full-fledged war breaks out, and then there will be further flight of global capital. But, such events are unpredictable.

Investors, though, need to lower their returns expectations and can’t bet on extraordinary returns continuing.

“You have had this crazy bull run, when you put money in any fund, you made 20-30-40 per cent, whatever. Don’t expect that this is going to continue to perpetuate. Returns will normalise. If you look at longer-term returns for any market cycle, 12-15 per cent in equities is what it will come down to,” said Belapurkar.

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WiseTech chief resigns after shares crash over allegations about personal life

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Richard White, the billionaire co-founder of Australia’s largest listed technology company WiseTech Global, has stepped down as chief executive after a series of revelations about his personal life wiped more than 20 per cent off the value of the logistics software group.

WiseTech shares hit a record high in September, valuing the company at A$45bn (US$30bn), as White’s vision to build “the operating system of global logistics” gathered pace.

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Then a legal dispute with a former girlfriend over an unpaid furniture bill relating to a multimillion-dollar Sydney home he had bought for her to live in before their relationship ended triggered a string of reports about his private life.

The reports were initially dismissed by the board as a private matter, and the legal case was settled this week. However, further stories about relationships with multiple other women, including an employee, and related property purchases emerged.

A complaint from a former board member about bullying behaviour was also published this week and piled further pressure on White and the board.

The stock fell a further 6 per cent on Thursday, reducing its market capitalisation to A$33bn. Its value has fallen more than 20 per cent in the past week.

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“It has been a challenging time for me personally, my family and close friends, and for the company that I have built and truly love,” White said in a statement on Thursday.

WiseTech’s board said he was putting the company and shareholders first in stepping down as CEO. It added he would take a short period of leave before returning to take on a “full-time, long-term consulting role, focused on product and business development”.

White, also chair of the Tech Council of Australia, denied any wrongdoing in meetings with the board this week. WiseTech has instigated a review to be conducted by law firms Herbert Smith Freehills and Seyfarth Shaw.

The tech group celebrated its 30-year anniversary this month, but celebrations at the company’s headquarters in Sydney’s industrial south on Thursday were restrained.

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That was in stark contrast to the company’s A$1bn listing on the ASX in 2016 when White took to the stage with hard rock band The Angels to play guitar along to an anti-establishment anthem “Who Rings the Bell?” at a company party.

White founded his first business in the late 1970s when he set up a guitar repair shop in Sydney. His most famous customers were Angus and Malcolm Young of AC/DC, whom he met while gigging on the pub scene. 

He co-founded WiseTech in 1994 and presided over three decades of growth as the global ecommerce market boomed.

The Australian company has acquired 50 smaller rivals to expand geographically and into areas including rail and truck freight, customs and warehouse technology. It has built a global software business underpinning the systems of industry giants including DHL, FedEx, Kuehne + Nagel and DSV.

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White’s fortune boomed alongside WiseTech’s valuation as he avoided the “land grab” strategy of other tech companies looking to expand globally by incurring heavy losses. WiseTech has never recorded an annual loss in its history, according to White.

Garry Sherriff, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, said White stepping back was the right move. “We believe that the underlying growth drivers of the business remain intact and relieving White from his managerial responsibilities to focus on product development is a positive step forward in addressing governance issues without outright dismissal,” he said.

Andrew Cartledge, chief financial officer, has been named interim chief executive, with a global search for a permanent replacement beginning “soon”, according to the board.

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Legendary store to close after over 50 years as ‘upset’ shoppers mourn the loss of beloved business

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Legendary store to close after over 50 years as 'upset' shoppers mourn the loss of beloved business

A LEGENDARY store is set to close after over 50 years with “upset” shoppers mourning its loss.

J Maher’s Garden and DIY hardware store on Lever Edge Lane in Bolton, first opened its doors in 1973.

J Maher’s Garden and DIY hardware store is shutting down

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J Maher’s Garden and DIY hardware store is shutting downCredit: Google

The shop is now run by owners Barrie and Janette Maher, after inheriting it from Barrie’s parents, Rita and Jack Maher.

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The pair work in the store with their son, Jon, and five other members of staff.

For decades, the hardware shop was a cornerstone for the local community.

But it has seen a sharp decline in sales since the pandemic which means the doors will now shut for good.

The popular store will pull down the shutters for the final time at the end of October.

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It currently supplies allotment societies all over Greater Manchester, South Lancashire and Merseyside as well as bowling clubs, landscapers, schools, trade gardeners and nurseries.

The business has been struggling partly due to the rise in online shopping.

Barrie told The Bolton News: “After Covid, the way of shopping changed, people are going to big brands.

“We even set up our own website, but we struggled to compete as the bigger brands will always be at the top of the search.

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“It’s like a depression over the whole country, people haven’t been to the store in the same way since before the pandemic.”

He added: “We’ve been here fifty-one years, people know us, and we have a great relationship with all our loyal customers, we know them by name and by sight.

“It’s upset a lot of people – since we announced the closure, the news has spread really quickly.”

Five expert tips to save money on your supermarket shop

The proposed ban on bagged peat composts by the end of this year has also been a “major blow” says owner, Barrie, as the businesses’ “niche product” was a large range of peat-based composts.

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Janette told the outlet that the store sold last week via auction but they were not sure who bought the area or what it’ll be used for.

She added: “The staff weren’t stupid, they could sense that things were wrapping up. We’ve been scaling down for the past six months trying to shift our stock.

“The shop was a pillar in the community – my mum used to go dancing and the old blokes would always ask about the shop because they owned allotments, it was very much loved by people.”

Devastated patrons of the shop were quick to take to social media after news of the closure.

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One wrote on Facebook: “Another great shop to close,It always remind me of a small Gregory & Porritts if Maher didn’t have it then nobody did,Always had lovely bedding plants & Xmas trees.

“So sad to see them go.”

Another added: “Absolutely gutted!…..been a major supplier for my gardening business for many years…..all the best Baz Jeanette and Jonathan.”

Meanwhile, a third said: “Brilliant shop, the owners are full of knowledge. Shame it is closing.”

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“Yet another great shop to close. It’s the best hardware store for miles. Friendly staff always helpful. What a great loss I travelled from the other side of Bolton to visit here,” said another saddened customer.

But Janette said that there were still positives to look at despite the closure.

She continued: “We’re planning to use our retirement to travel the world and make new memories.

“We’d like to thank our loyal customers who’ve given us business over the past years.

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“We’ve had some great customers and members of staff who’ve stayed loyal to us. They have worked to make the store what it was.”

Why are retailers closing shops?

EMPTY shops have become an eyesore on many British high streets and are often symbolic of a town centre’s decline.

The Sun’s business editor Ashley Armstrong explains why so many retailers are shutting their doors.

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In many cases, retailers are shutting stores because they are no longer the money-makers they once were because of the rise of online shopping.

Falling store sales and rising staff costs have made it even more expensive for shops to stay open. In some cases, retailers are shutting a store and reopening a new shop at the other end of a high street to reflect how a town has changed.

The problem is that when a big shop closes, footfall falls across the local high street, which puts more shops at risk of closing.

Retail parks are increasingly popular with shoppers, who want to be able to get easy, free parking at a time when local councils have hiked parking charges in towns.

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Many retailers including Next and Marks & Spencer have been shutting stores on the high street and taking bigger stores in better-performing retail parks instead.

Boss Stuart Machin recently said that when it relocated a tired store in Chesterfield to a new big store in a retail park half a mile away, its sales in the area rose by 103 per cent.

In some cases, stores have been shut when a retailer goes bust, as in the case of Wilko, Debenhams Topshop, Dorothy Perkins and Paperchase to name a few.

What’s increasingly common is when a chain goes bust a rival retailer or private equity firm snaps up the intellectual property rights so they can own the brand and sell it online.

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They may go on to open a handful of stores if there is customer demand, but there are rarely ever as many stores or in the same places.

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Tata Chemicals, Tata Teleservices rise over 5 per cent. How are the Tata stocks doing today?- The Week

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Tata Chemicals, Tata Teleservices rise over 5 per cent. How are the Tata stocks doing today?- The Week

Shares of Tata Group companies, Tata Chemicals and Tata Teleservices, rose over 5 per cent on Thursday, even as the nation mourns the death of Tata Sons Chairman Emeritus Ratan Tata who played a key role in transforming the group into a global conglomerate.

At the time of writing this report, Tata Teleservices was up over 6 per cent while Tata Chemicals gained over 5 per cent. The stock of Tata Investment Corporation soared 10.47 per cent to trade at Rs 7,235.80 apiece.

Other major gainers from the Tata pack of companies include Tata Coffee which went up by 3 per cent, Tata Elxsi, which rose over 2 per cent, and Tata Power which was trading nearly 2 per cent higher.

Nelco, Indian Hotels, Tata Technologies, and Tejas Networks rose over 1 per cent. Tata Steel rose 0.91 per cent, Tata Communications (0.84 per cent), TCS (0.21 per cent), Tata Consumer Products (0.17 per cent), and Voltas went up by 0.24 per cent.

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However, Trent slipped 0.90 per cent, Titan fell and Tata Motors was down 0.40 per cent even as Sensex was trading higher by 220 points at 81,699.

“Investors can pay tribute to Ratan Tata and the great corporate empire he built by buying stocks like TCS, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Tata Consumer and Indian Hotels. Ratan Tata, while pursuing the group’s growth, contributed substantially to India’s growth and millions of ordinary investors gained from the great man’s vision,” V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, was quoted as saying.

Meanwhile, TCS cancelled a press conference scheduled on Thursday to announce its second-quarter results.

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Shoppers threaten to boycott major supermarket after popular loyalty freebie is axed AGAIN

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Shoppers threaten to boycott major supermarket after popular loyalty freebie is axed AGAIN

SHOPPERS have threatened to boycott a major supermarket after a popular freebie has been scrapped for a second time, testing the loyalty of customers.

The members benefit was originally phased out back in February 2022 but saw a resurgence for a small number as a “goodwill gesture”.

The membership card perk has been set to end on October 29

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The membership card perk has been set to end on October 29Credit: Getty
It's not the first loyalty card perk to be scrapped by the supermarket giant

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It’s not the first loyalty card perk to be scrapped by the supermarket giantCredit: Alamy

Owned by the John Lewis Partnership, Waitrose has announced that it will no longer offer free newspapers when loyalty card customers spend £10 or more.

Those with their name to a myWaitrose card were informed via email that they would no longer receive the discount newspaper vouchers from October 29.

First offered to shoppers in 2013, Waitrose clients needed to spend £5 or more during the week to reap the reward, with this doubling to £10 at weekends.

Then, in 2016 the Monday to Friday offer was raised to £10 with the perk later being scrapped just two years ago.

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At the time, the supermarket giant claimed that only 5pc of customers were taking advantage of the offer but since then a small number of loyalty card customers could still buy a discounted daily newspaper after 3pm.

This is not the first time the high-street brand has dropped benefits for its frequent spenders.

The offer which saw customers entitled to a free hot drink with every purchase was scrapped until the store decided to bring it back after facing backlash.

Reinstating the beverage allowance in 2022, shoppers could only claim theirs when bringing their own reusable cup.

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The loyalty scheme was originally launched in 2011 and has been incredibly popular ever since with the latest figures in 2022 suggesting around 9 million members.

Those opting to sign-up for the MyWaitrose card could receive money-off vouchers and discounts on dry cleaning products.

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However, since a change in its terms and conditions earlier this year, customers may no longer receive discount vouchers every week.

With the short notice period before the freebie is cut from the clasp of customers, many have already taken to social media to express their strong thoughts.

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One person wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter: “I think your decision to remove the newspaper vouchers for loyal customers who regularly shop with you is a major mistake.”

Another said: “Received an email giving 6 days notice that I’ll no longer receive free newspaper vouchers as part of your loyalty scheme.

“Given that the other benefits are of zero interest I shall take my custom and cash elsewhere.”

Someone else put: “Disappointing you are removing the free newspaper from your benefits.

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“My parents only go into Waitrose on the weekends for the free paper but always ended up buying other things walking through the store.

“Guess they’ll be no need for them to go there now.”

A fourth commented: “Gutted @waitrose is ending my newspaper vouchers.”

Someone else wrote: “What a shame – it was a great benefit – I cannot afford to buy them.”

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Another claimed the changes were a “middle-class disaster”.

One user posted a picture of the email they had received informing them that they would no longer be offered the daily newspaper vouchers.

The screenshot shows the list of other benefits that MyWaitrose customers can continue to enjoy, including:

  • Personalised offers
  • Free HotDrinks from our self-service machines with any purchase in store*
  • Exclusive competitions
  • Fish Fridays: save 20% on selected fish from the counter
  • Sizzling Saturdays: save 20% on selected meat from the counter

A spokesperson for Waitrose previously told The Telegraph: “Our newspaper offer was retired in February 2022, as it was only being used by 5pc of customers. A small number retained the offer as a temporary goodwill gesture, but we’re phasing these out to invest in rewards that benefit all members.

“These customers will get additional rewards over the coming weeks to thank them for their loyalty, as well as our wider benefits, like free hot drinks and personalised offers, which remain hugely popular.”

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The Sun has approached Waitrose for comment.

Supermarket loyalty schemes – which has one?

MOST UK supermarkets have loyalty schemes so customers can build up points and save money while they shop.

Here we round up what saving programmes you’ll find at the big brands.

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  • Iceland: Unlike other stores, you don’t collect points with the Iceland Bonus Card. Instead, you load it up with money and Iceland will give you £1 for every £20 you save.
  • Lidl Plus: Lidl customers don’t collect points when they shop, and are instead rewarded with personalised vouchers that gives them money off at the till.
  • Morrisons: The My Morrisons: Make Good Things Happen replaces the More Card and rewards customers with personalised money off vouchers via the app.
  • Sainsbury’s: While Sainsbury’s doesn’t have a personal scheme, it does own the Nectar card which can also be used in Argos, eBay and other shops. You need 200 Nectar points to save up £1 to spend on your card. You need to spend at least £1 to get one Nectar point.
  • Tesco: Tesco Clubcard has over 17million members in the UK alone. You use it each time you shop and build up points that can be turned into vouchers – 150 points gets you a £1.50 voucher. Here you need to spend £1 in Tesco to get one point.
  • Waitrose: myWaitrose also doesn’t allow you to collect points but instead you’ll get access to free hot drinks, and discounts off certain brands in store.

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Hermès defies luxury downturn with strong quarterly sales

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French luxury group Hermès has continued to defy the broader global downturn in the sector as it posted a sharp increase in quarterly sales. 

The Paris-listed group, known for its silk scarves and Birkin handbags, reported on Thursday that sales rose 11.3 per cent to €3.7bn on a constant currency basis in the three months to September, in line with the €3.69bn forecast by analysts polled by LSEG. 

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While the luxury sector has been under pressure due to weakening consumer demand, especially in China, Hermès shares have risen 9 per cent this year. Meanwhile, rivals LVMH and Gucci owner Kering have fallen 15 and 41 per cent, respectively. 

The 20 per cent sales growth across Europe excluding France, which was up 13 per cent, was fuelled by strong textiles, leather goods and perfume sales. Eric du Halgouët, executive vice-president finance, said on an investor call that the strong European performance was mainly driven by US and Middle Eastern tourists while there was a slight drop in Chinese buyers.

However, jewellery and watches, which together make up roughly 40 per cent of the brand’s revenue, missed expectations.

Watch sales, particularly, declined 18 per cent, twice as much as the forecast 9 per cent drop. Du Halgouët said this was part of a normalisation path following strong growth over the previous years.

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Despite the sector’s downturn, analysts expect Hermès and Italy’s Prada Group — which is reporting earnings next week — to stand out.

Hermès said it was sticking to its medium-term revenue growth guidance despite geopolitical headwinds and monetary uncertainties.

Hermès has ramped up investments in its manufacturing capacity, marketing and IT while expanding its headcount and offering staff salary increases and a free share plan.

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Citi said in a note: “The valuation premium seems justified by a more defensive business model with relatively good visibility on revenue growth, margins, cash flow and returns profile, particularly at a time when the luxury sector remains out of favour.”

The current 40 per cent earnings before tax and interest margin appeared to be a good “proxy” for the future, it added.

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Diary of an aspiring adviser: Tackling imposter syndrome

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Diary of an aspiring adviser: Tackling imposter syndrome

Apparently, one third of people are suffering from imposter syndrome at any given time, and 70% will experience it at some point.

My former career as a scientist wasn’t all bad, but one example stands out as a low point. I don’t know if it was the origin of my imposter syndrome. But it certainly didn’t help.

Halfway through my PhD, I was giving my first talk at an international conference. After I’d finished, the floor was opened up to questions.

The best advice I’ve received is to remember that no one is perfect

The first hand raised was that of an older researcher and it turned out he didn’t really have a question; he just wanted to tell me and the rest of the audience that he thought my work was pointless. Although I’m not opposed to criticism, I do think it needs to be constructive.

It was easy, as a scientist, to feel like you were never doing enough — surrounded by professors and fast-rising superstars, all experts in their field. I remember worrying I wasn’t good enough and I would be exposed as a fraud.

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I’m grateful my experience since changing to the advice profession has been one of night and day.

Whenever I have interacted with people in the wider industry, whether in a random email, at a conference or picking their brain over a coffee, I have been met with overwhelmingly helpful, friendly responses.

I’ve got better at recognising when negative thoughts start gnawing away at me

Contrast the above presenting experience with my first at a financial planning conference. Everyone was very welcoming, no one was rude and I even had several people approach me afterwards just to let me know they had liked the talk.

At work, I am hugely fortunate to have a supportive boss and leadership team, and a friendly group of colleagues.

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Nevertheless, despite all these positive experiences I have had since changing career, imposter syndrome never completely goes away. I may have a great day, or even a great week, at work, but that doesn’t stop doubts creeping in the following week.

While I haven’t found the secret to eliminating imposter syndrome, I have taken steps to reduce it.

I’ve realised I need to stop comparing myself to others. There will always be someone better than you, but everyone is on their own journey and has their own trials.

One third of people are suffering from imposter syndrome at any given time

I’ve also got better at recognising when negative thoughts start gnawing away at me, and remembering that other people also experience this.

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Finally, I think the best advice I’ve received to overcome it is to remember that no one is perfect — neither myself, nor the grouchy guy who didn’t like my work all those years ago!

Ryan Sharpe is a paraplanner at Almond Financial


This article featured in the October 2024 edition of Money Marketing

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